Get started

Oilanalysis

CFD News; Oil sees demand after testing key support.Welcome to Wednesday's update, subscribers and TradingView community Today our focus is on oil as price has started to move higher after testing and holding for now at key support. Price continues to trade in a short to medium-term downtrend after sellers turned momentum back in June. Since that point, it's been a series of LHs and LLs. Today's price has shown defensive action from buyers after this morning's lower gap failed to beat 94.90 area support and demand. Could yesterday's bar be seen as exhaustion? If buyers can hold this level of support, we will be looking for price to continue to push higher. Obviously, if we see a break, then it's back to looking for new LLs maintaining the downtrend. The MAs remain bearish, but the OBV has stopped putting in clear LLs despite yesterday's strong move lower. Could support be hiding plenty of fresh demand from oil buyers? We will have to wait and see if buyers can hold the level again today. Data to keep an eye out for today. 10:30 pm US CPI and core CPI. 12:30 am US crude oil inventory numbers.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSD
by Eightcap
USOUSD OIL,Yesterday's buyer fightback to push a new leg higher?Thanks for tunning in TradingView community. Today we're looking at USOUSD oil and wondering if yesterday's price rejection could lead to a new leg higher from buyers. So far this week, we have seen mixed trade with buyers coming close to breaking last week's high before sellers took hold and set up a two-day retracement. It would have been three, but buyers had other ideas yesterday, stopping sellers once they tested 112.75. Buyers quickly took price back up above 117 and posted a higher close for the session. Today so far price has been on the quieter side. If we can see a new move above yesterday's high, we will be looking for a new up leg, but if sellers can close below 115.14 this could be a warning that the current retracement could have further to go. If we do see a new leg higher would look for price to possibly get back into the 120/21 area if buyers can maintain momentum. Happy Friday, all. We hope everyone has a lovely weekend and good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by Eightcap
Could we see Oil retest 122?Thanks for stopping by. We hope the community is having a lovely Friday. Today our focus is on USOUSD (Oil) as price finished yesterday’s session with a commanding reversal bar. After trading over 2% lower, buyers not only took hold but ended the session with a solid 3.83% gain. Yesterday’s session appears to show that buyers are still very active, and for now, price is not comfortable trading below 114.77. The move maintains the current trend, but we want to see further confirmation to suggest that the trend is set to continue. If buyers can reverse today’s selling and beat 119.50 minor resistance, which also holds yesterday’s high, we will then be looking for the current trend to continue with a possible new test of 122 or above. A failure to break yesterday’s high and minor resistance in today’s session could be seen as a small warning to buyer strength. Good trading
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by Eightcap
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development Oil was up on Thursday morning in Asia, extending a cautious rally as signs of a tight market emerge. The European clash with Hungary over plans to ban imports from Russia, the world's second-largest crude exporter, also continues. Brent oil futures were up 0.31% to $111.47 by and WTI futures for July delivery rose 0.50% to $110.88. Investors also digested Wednesday’s crude oil supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The data showed a draw of 1.019 million barrels in the week to May 20, 2022. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com predicted a draw of 737,00 million barrels, while a 3.394-million-barrel draw was recorded during the previous week. Crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute released the day before, showed a build of 567,000 barrels. Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading middle line of Bollinger band indicator. Right know XTIUSD trading at tight range. As per the 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading above today pivot level 109.50. As per my view, buy on dip is good strategy for XTIUSD, buy range is 109.50 to 109, and there is very strong support zone at 108. Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade below 108 and sustain in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to sell with the target of 106 with the stop loss of 109.50.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by RATONYCNC
USOUSD Oil, continuation higher watch.Good morning/good afternoon TradingView community. Today's video idea is focused on oil as we saw a solid reversal yesterday sellers did their best to get a new leg lower going. Buyers not only stopped the run but put in a solid reversal bar that finished above the 50% point of the previous lower bar. This action has us thinking, could this be the start of a new trend continuation? We are watching to see if buyers can break yesterday's high. A break could be the starting point of confirmation of this idea. The MA and CCi both support further buying, but we really want to see yesterday's high beaten to show that buyers retain momentum. Please check out our video for more detail on our trade idea. Good trading. We hope everyone has a great weekend.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDLong
by Eightcap
USOIL Crude oil : Russian oil ban, what's next? 4.5The pennant consolidation opened the week with a breakout and a retest confirmation of the breakout. Consolidation took place between Jan - April 2022, With a high of ~128 and a low of ~88. The breakout is a major bullish technical alert, indicating new daily up-trend. Resistance levels on the new up-trend are: *106.80 - 108.50 *114.60 - 116.40 *125 - 127.80 Retest potential to the downside: *Consolidation retest - 100-101.50 *Consolidation support floor - 96.50-98.20 A break below consolidation may lead to trend reversal, but for now bullish indications on full alert! Russian oil sanctions are increasing and we have 1 million barrels a day off circulation as of now, this amount is expected to double soon, Bernard Looney, CEO of BP oil company says. This is a fundamental trigger for the technical breakout. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful please like and follow - It would truly mean a lot to me. I promise to respond to any and all questions/comments, so don't hesitate! Always be careful trading and make your own research, best of luck. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by Exactus
2
WTI Crude Oil: Bubble burst on the go? Or rocket to space? 25.4Let's be practical. There's 2 ways this can go. (refer back to my 19.4 update about the slip we see in the last few days) 1) Triangle consolidation since the peak of 128 back in March is with a 102.90 resistance level. A breakout above with a daily candle close confirms up-trend breakout and 105, 108, 115 would be immediate possible targets. 2) A breakout below cluster level of supports between 94-96 will be confirmed with a close below 93-94 with a daily candle. This would be high probability bubble burst similar to what we've witnessed back in 2008, 2014 and 2018 with massive $50+ declines. Immediate possible targets would be 88, 84 and 75. Fundamentally speaking, Chinese lockdown as well as India possibly also announcing restrictions soon provides bearish support together with possibility of reserve release from multiple directions (USA, China, SHELL, Aramco, OPEC, etc...). For the bullish fundamentals we have war escalating (already going for 3 month, most probable impact is priced in) and inflation (During 2008 inflation did not help oil keep above 3 figures for more than days). On a personal note - I believe there's higher probability for a breakout down considering above points. I encourage you to do your own research before trading this idea or in general :) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you found my idea helpful, please like and follow - It would mean the world to me :D I'm open for any question in private or as a comment , don't hesitate to contact me! My goal is to reach out and help as many traders as I can :) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Exactus
6
WTI Crude Oil: 19.4 - A slide off the edge? A 'rising wedge" pattern is one of the most bearish candlestick patterns out there. It's when the highs consolidate with the lows in the shape of a sharp triangle going up. When the support trend-line breaks down - A trend reversal is usually ON! Meaning that from higher highs and lows the shift is to lower highs and lows and new lower targets are targeted. Yesterday I've covered how a break below 104.50 can be the beginning of a $10 or more drop down. 105.60 is another important support level to be broken and a blockage on the way down. Today is a very critical day as it may break this level, the other scenario is that WTI could retest the broken rising wedge at the high 107's low 108's. Pay close attention to the WTI today, as this could be the beginning of a significant correction down. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'd very much appreciate a like and follow if you found this analysis helpful :D Please let me know what you would like to see more of and what you liked/disliked about my idea. My goal is to benefit the trading community and help improve results of all traders across the board ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Exactus
11
WTI Crude Oil - The crossroad you need to know about !18.4 1) The breakout above the down trend-line starting from the highest high , when the price went above 101, marked the beginning of the movement we've seen so far (+$8). 2) There's 2 technical scenario playouts: *Break above 108.20 with a 4h/1d close - 113.40 to 114.64 may be reached in the very short-term *Break below 104.50 with a 4h/1d close - 97.90 to 93.20 may be reached in the very short-term 3) The circles on the chart mark the horizontal levels of support/resistance which play a very important role in price action. 4) Converging lows and highs are so far in the shape of a 'rising wedge" which could mean there's a higher potential for reversal down. 5) Fundamentally, oil is currently acting within an 'emotional' investor phase , which means in simple terms, there's no real shortage of oil so far - And reality may hit the price hard at any given time. OPEC, Aramco, SHELL, USA all have capability to supply the entire world with oil if necessary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you liked my analysis please like and follow , it would mean a lot to me :D If there's any questions please don't hesitate to ask me I would also like to hear suggestions of what you guys would like to see more of I thank you for reading this far and wish all of you successful trading <3 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTI
by Exactus
1
MEDIUM TERM WTI CRUDE OIL ANALYSISHEY ZEYAN HERE Hello, zeyan. I was previously fairly bullish on oil, but as I can see now, oil prices will be settling back to below 100, with 82.50 being the next best probable position. this is an idea a plan in a uncertain chaotic environment out of multiple plans to be certain IF anything happens that changes the fundamentals of this idea, i will update. please note that this is not financial advice. do your own research and use this information as conformational biase on top of your own analysis. like for support!!!!
TVC:USOILShort
by zeyankhan1318
Bearish News Is Mounting For Oil18 hours ago,I read:CHINA-Lockdown and I shorted immediately all my positions in crude,brent and WTI.In some I took the losses,other Break even or profits. The fact is :My decision was King.Our Jobs as Traers is to be flexible and adapt as soon as possible to the market circumtances.Sosometimes News catalysts like these help to decide immediately. Although our system tells us the oppositite:THE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THE MARKET PRICE ACTION. And price action are made by the smart money. Sofollowthe money.Be alwaysflexible and have an edge beide your trading system.Such as News catalyst. Oil prices remained fairly stable this week, with ICE Brent balancing slightly above the $100 per barrel mark. Fears of Russian supply disruptions were temporarily put on the back burner by the vast IEA-coordinated inventory release that greatly helped in flattening out the futures curves of all three key crude benchmarks. The extensions of COVID lockdowns in China, especially in Shanghai, have also helped the bearish cause, however it remains to be seen how long will it take for disruption fears to resurface again. IEA to Release 60 Million Barrels of Strategic Stocks. Above and beyond the US’ 180-million-barrel stock draw, IEA countries agreed to release 60 million barrels over the upcoming six months, with Japan taking a prime role amidst the relatively timid commitments of others, pledging to release 15 million barrels. EU to Ban Russian Coal, with Delay. According to media reports, the European Union’s approval of a ban on Russian coal imports would take full effect from mid-August, following internal lobbying from Germany to extend the deadline as far out as possible to allow usual buying in the four-month wind-down period. Chile Sues Mining Giants over Atacama Water Use. The government of Chile is suing mining majors BHP (NYSE:BHP) and Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) over alleged environmental damage caused by their operations in the Atacama desert, draining the area’s aquifer by increased exploitation. US EPA Denies 36 Refinery Biofuel Waivers. The US Environmental Protection Agency declined 36 exemption waivers coming from oil refiners for the 2018 compliance year, confirming a 2020 court decision that significantly narrowed the criteria on who could be eligible for blending exemptions. Canada Approves $12 Billion Bay du Nord Project. The Canadian government approved the $12 billion offshore Bay du Nord project that would be operated by Equinor (NYSE:EQNR), having found no adverse environmental effects, marking the country’s first deep-water project that took years to greenlight. Tight Oil Markets Are Sending Fuel Margins Through The Roof The oil price rally has really cooled down over the past two weeks, with oil prices declining to levels last seen prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Brent oil (CO1:COM) prices fell ~2% Thursday to trade below $100/b, while the price for a barrel of Brent for June 2022 delivery has fallen from $127/b one month ago to $99/b today. Pandemic-related lockdowns in Shanghai, slowing U.S. oil demand growth, and a historic strategic petroleum reserve release have all contributed to the selloff. Interestingly, medium-term prices have hardly budged as near-term oil prices have fallen by over 20%, indicating a still-bullish longer-term outlook. That said, whereas it's crude markets that have been hogging the limelight, the most dramatic action in global oil markets has been happening in a more hidden corner of the market: distillate fuels. The price of diesel and jet fuel in Europe hit a record in early March amid unusually tight supplies. Both commodities have since pared some of their gains, but refiners are still making a killing. Indeed, in another sign of impending distillate fuel shortages, jet fuel traded at ~$320/b in New York on Monday ($7.61/g), a massive ~$200+ premium to crude feedstock prices. The jet fuel premium is currently ~10x larger than any premium seen in the past 30yrs. High Fuel Margins To Last There's a good chance that high fuel prices will ultimately lead to demand destruction. However, Goldman Sachs says distillate fuel demand is likely to remain strong and margins to remain high due to these factors: Diesel and jet fuel stocks are at historic lows, and seasonally-adjusted inventory draws are large and accelerating. Jet fuel consumption is poised to accelerate into summer with a return to international travel. High natural gas prices will lead to "gas-to-oil" switching in Europe and Asia. The Russia / Ukraine war will reduce distillate supply, as Russia exports ~900kb/d of diesel fuel and ~900kb/d of residual feedstocks, which are largely upgraded into diesel by European and Chinese refiners. Refinery operating costs are increasing, particularly in Europe. In fact, Goldman sees current record margins sustaining through at least year end. In the U.S., names like Par Pacific (NYSE:PARR), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO), Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC )and Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) stand to benefit from higher refining margins while in Europe, Saras (OTCPK:SAAFY) is most exposed. Meanwhile, during its Q1 earnings preview, Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) mentioned improving refining margins, with indicators nearly doubling quarter over quarter. Falling Russian Exports Another reason to be bullish about fuel margins: falling Russian exports. Russia is a key source of distillate fuel for Europe and the world. Shortly after the war began, BP Plc (NYSE:BP) and Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) stopped selling spot diesel in Germany. Last week, Argentina’s YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF) cited diesel "scarcity" in the seaborne market. Jet fuel margins in New York harbor rose to $200/b earlier in the week, a ten-fold increase from historic averages. Attempts to measure the impact of self sanctioning on Russian exports have seen mixed results, with some studies suggesting that exports have largely continued to flow unchanged while others say they could have declined by as much as 3.0mb/d. Thus far, the only measurable impact on exports has come from a terminal outage—a terminal that primarily carries Kazakhstani crude to market. So far, Russia's pivotal energy sector has been largely spared from sanctions. But damning evidence of serious war crimes coming from Ukraine suggests that Russia could very well face more severe sanctions, including a ban on its oil by European nations. Related: Oil Rises As Videos Emerge Of Attack On Saudi Oil Facility Since Russian forces withdrew from northern Ukraine, turning their assault on the south and east, grim images from the town of Bucha near Kyiv, including a mass grave and bound bodies of people shot at close range, have prompted international outrage. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered estimate that a move towards explicit EU sanctions on Russian oil imports would keep Russian output below 8.5mb/d for several years, good for a 3mb/d decline compared to pre-invasion levels, and introduce further downside to already low expectations for Russian oil output. According to StanChart, the EU's most likely immediate measure--i.e., imposing sanctions on coal--will do little to placate member states and public opinion for a significant ratcheting up of the pressure on Russia. Further, EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas would send a strong signal that Russian oil is unlikely to regain its former market in Europe for an extended period, if ever. EU sanctions will also likely increase the pressure on key countries, and particularly India, not to increase their imports from Russia above pre-invasion levels; up to now, part of the pushback from other users of Russian oil has been that they could not be expected to refrain from extra purchases if EU governments were not explicitly limiting their own use. In other words, fuel margins might remain elevated for many months, if not years.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
OIL SHORT BACK TO MAIN TREND IF CLOSE OUTSIDE 50 MOVING AVERAGEHi there, As you see on the chart, OIL has closed below the 50MA on the daily time frame. We need to see a full candle close below 50MA for short. It is still above the 200MA so still a bullish trend up. But we may want to catch the fall back to the main trend. You can see our entry and profit target. Profit target = next support point. Entry Point = Ideally we should wait for a retest and reject from the 50MA to enter for the fall. Indicator: > MACD = showing sell but need more sellers > RSI = below 50, need more strength to the down side We don't want to see OIL close inside the symmetric triangle. kind regards
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingProXY