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Oilandgas

UNG can it rally from another monthly low ? LONGUNG on the daily chart has put in another monthly low similar to that of December after falling from a double top in early January. Gas production may be low. Storages may be depleting as demand is steady even in mild winters. The indicators show mild bullish divergence on the zero-lag MACD and volatility compression on the Fibonacci levels with low volumes overall and selling predominating. RSI levels are in the upper 40s and staady. I see this as a long trade setup targeting first 22 near to the midline of the Fib bands and then 24 at the Fib retracement level for the trend down from October into late December. The stop loss is about 2% at 19. R:r 2.6 : 0.4 or about 6.
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
Crude oil analysis Crude oil prices are struggling as investors weigh recent hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve despite cooling U.S. consumer inflation data last week. Fed Vice Chairman Michael Barr said on Monday that the Fed is in a good position to keep policy steady and focus on the economy. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she no longer believes three rate cuts in 2024 are appropriate. She stressed that inflation risks are skewed to the upside and given the strength of the economy, there is no harm in taking more time to collect inflation data. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September fell slightly to 60% from 65% on Monday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In Canada, the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX) began commercial operations this month, overcoming years of regulatory delays and construction setbacks. The expansion will transport an additional 590,000 barrels per day from Alberta to Canada's Pacific Coast. Investors are now turning their attention to supply from OPEC and its affiliates (OPEC+). They are scheduled to meet on June 1 to set output policy, which will include a decision on whether to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day by some members.
TVC:USOIL
by RID_WK
1
SHELLS Q3 Financial reportRoyal Dutch Shell (LON:SHEL)'s Q3 financial outlook, published on Friday, suggests that the energy giant is set to benefit from a sector-wide rally in oil, refined products, and gas prices. The company anticipates enhanced earnings from its gas, chemicals, and product trading operations. These expectations are backed by InvestingPro's data that shows Shell's revenue in the last twelve months (LTM2023.Q2) to be a staggering $358.59 billion, with a gross profit of $88.24 billion. Shell has been aggressively buying back shares, a move that often signifies management's confidence in the company's future. Another noteworthy tip is that the company has maintained dividend payments for 19 consecutive years. Shell also foresees a corporate adjusted loss for the quarter. This follows a loss of $654 million reported in Q2 2023. This anticipated loss does not overshadow the fact that Shell has been profitable over the last twelve months, according to InvestingPro Tips. The recent rally in the energy sector could potentially uplift earnings for integrated energy players like Shell. The official Q3 results of Shell are scheduled to be published on November 2, 2023. These results will provide a clearer picture of the company's performance amidst fluctuating market conditions. The InvestingPro data reveals that Shell's fair value is estimated to be $79.1, which is higher than the previous close price of $62.04, indicating potential growth.
NYSE:SHELLong
by DEXWireNews
RIG: At a crossroads, time to decideRIG recently broke out of its bull flag. However, since then oil prices have fallen sharply, creating selling pressure for RIG. RIG successfully defended the breakout yesterday when oil prices were down 4%, but RIG has another test ahead of it today as oil has fallen another 3%. In my opinion, the downside risk from here is minimal, but the upside is tremendous, creating a highly favorable r/r setup. If RIG is unable to defend the breakout today, I expect the stock will retest the lower trendline around $5.30, which I expect will provide strong support. However, if RIG is able to maintain the breakout even after oil falls 7% in 2 days, that would be a tremendous show of strength. I think it could go either way right now, 50/50, but I think the bullish interpretation is the highest probability at this time. It is possible that this stock could reach $20/share over the next 6-12 months.
NYSE:RIG
by TomDaSpankEngine
Can the oil price recovery last?Judging from the trend of crude oil, since crude oil rebounded above 74, the technical bullish signal has been significantly strengthened.However, although the current oil price has returned to the range of the box, on the whole, the current price has basically touched the vicinity of the pressure zone of the previous box shock.In addition, judging from the strength of the recent rebound, it has not been as strong, so the trend may face a certain level of adjustment in the short term, and there is a technical need to step back on the midline of the channel to confirm the demand.After the last wave of the 4-hour level trend rose, the price was temporarily.The narrow volatility that remains at a high level weakens the strength of the upper attack, so there may be a trend of spatial correction in the short term. Short-term trading reference: Sell crude oil near the 74.3 position, stop loss level 74.7, take profit level 73.2 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
Crudeoil bears are working hard again, where will crudeoil fall?There may not be a shortcut to success, but there must be a way.Give up what should be given up, grasp what can be grasped; only insist on investing in your own investment standards. Yesterday's short crude oil orders reaped very good profits, and the current crude oil is creating favorable trading opportunities for us. At present, the U.S. Secretary of Energy has hinted that the country is in no hurry to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), exacerbating concerns about oversupply in the market.In addition, Russia's continued supply of crude oil to the global market has also increased the pressure on the oil market, causing oil prices to fall again. At present, crude oil has fallen as low as 66.8.Judging from the trend of crude oil, the rebound of crude oil has been blocked for two consecutive trading days, and a longer upper shadow line has been left, forming a secondary pressure, so the suppression of resistance above the 71 position is still relatively obvious.I also mentioned in my article yesterday that if oil prices are delayed in regaining the 72.4 position, there is a technical need for a second bottoming demand, which will increase the short-term bearish signal. In the short-term treatment, the upper side initially pays attention to the pressure near 69, and the lower side pays attention to the support near 66.8. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
Will Exxon march higher or perform a fake out?Since our previous post on Exxon Mobil, it has increased significantly in value against our expectations. Unfortunately, with the upcoming earnings, the stock might get an additional boost in price, which is already hovering near all-time highs. As a result, XOM breaking above $114.66 will force us to abandon our price target on the downside. However, even if a breakout occurs, we will continue to pay close attention to subsequent price action and monitor volume very closely. To support the idea of a fakeout, we would like to see a continual drop in volume accompanying price growth on the daily chart (just like on the monthly chart). As for the outlook beyond the short-term, we remain worried that ranging oil prices between $70 and $85 per barrel will threaten the well-being of this stock title. Furthermore, higher taxes on energy companies, economic slowdown, and oil down more than 35% since its 2022 peak will put pressure on further price increases. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the hourly chart of XOM. The yellow arrow points to a technical glitch at NYSE, which saw multiple stock companies plunge and turn on circuit breakers. We can potentially discard this movement. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the monthly chart of XOM. The red arrow indicates a continual decline in volume, which is a bearish technical development. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows the daily chart of XOM and the updated setup. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Editors' picks
NYSE:XOM
by Tradersweekly
47
WTI oil - Change in a rhetoric of the OPECIn our last idea on oil, we outlined a scenario for a downtrend correction if the breakout above the sloping resistance took place. A few days later, the breakout occurred, and technical indicators turned bullish. Additionally, a slight change in the rhetoric of OPEC came, with Saudi Arabia and other members hinting at looming production cuts. This development forces us to abandon our price targets because of OPEC's ability to maintain a floor or a lid on oil prices. We will update our thoughts as we get more information concerning the cartel's production. Until then, we abstain from setting price targets for USOIL. Illustration 1.01 The chart above shows the bullish breakout above the prior resistance. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is bullish. The same applies to Stochastic and MACD. However, MACD stays below 0 points; if it breaks above, it will be bullish. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI strives to reverse to the upside; the same applies to Stochastic and MACD. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral/slightly bullish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
15
Tourmaline Oil - Beauty to Beast and Beast to BeautyTourmaline's pullback from it's $80 all time high and its bounce off the previous all time high is simply not deep enough, as evidenced by today's stop run over the June monthly close, which also produced one of those very credible "head and shoulders" patterns, on the back of the maniacs in the Natural Gas market running a monster short squeeze that ruined a lot of Q2s for "hedge funds." WTI and NatGas are going to dump. Stocks are going to dump. It's not going to be a very pleasant period of time. But, natural gas and oil are something that the ruling regime cannot do without, because transportation and electricity rely entire upon them. Oil is going to set a new all time high, and so is natural gas. They will do it at the same time, as the middle class is already experiencing maximum pain. This will give the central banks the handle they need to increasingly tighten, in addition to giving the Marxist-Leninist globalists a pretext to install social credit digital identification for the sake of fuel rationing. Don't believe? Google Sri Lanka fuel rationing QR code & Ireland oil shortage war game. Anyway, for Tourmaline, this Alberta gem is apt to give you a fine buying opportunity as commodities dump and the stock market crashes under $55 and $50. The target is simply $100+. With stops below the July 2021 highs of $35, you get an RR of 4. Oil and natural gas, when they bounce, should be painfully brutal to bears. The situation should go parabolic, but it won't go all that high, and it won't go for all that long. Think about what gold did when it set a new all time high, but faster, and for less time. After the Party is over, the lights turn on and the music stops. Everyone will find a lot of vomit and trash to clean up, and it won't feel so fun and you won't feel so good with all that hangover and tab to pay, so make sure you sell your portfolio at the highs and buy your family something nice. The best thing you can do is capitalize on your investment, put your wealth into something classical like gems, silver, gold, and prepare to return to tradition and prepare to cultivate yourselves.
TSX:TOULong
by LordWrymouth
Crude oil analysis points to bullish turnaround Crude oil experienced a significant drop in price over the past two weeks. This week, however, it appears the energy commodity is bouncing back to the bullish side. The fall in the price of oil since May was triggered by the fear of a recession, in the US in particular, and numerous central banks’ moving against inflation with rate hikes, leading to slowing economic growth. This, however, has been mitigated by the fact that the global economy is now facing a lack of supply on the energy front. As global demand closes in on pre-pandemic levels there are indications of further support in demand for fuel. Supply concerns have cropped up as a result of Saudi Arabia and the UAE running at near oil production capacity and the political unrest occurring in both Ecuador and Libya. Given that these countries are some of the few that could fill the void left by the Russian sanctions, any hint of disruption may play a role in supporting or surging oil prices. On the other hand, US President Joe Biden last week called on Congress to suspend the Federal gasoline tax for 3 months. President Biden, in calling for gas tax holiday, further stated he wants merchants to pass on the entire reduction to consumers and the industry to refine more crude oil into gasoline to increase supply. On the technical side of Crude oil, after the conclusion of the OPEC meeting, we might see an increase in volatility in oil prices. On the daily chart, we can see a clear uptrend as the price bounces around its trend channel. Price made a rebound at around 104.0 on the lower trendline creating a bullish structure. As the price heads towards a minor resistance of 114.70, a break above this area could potentially send price towards 120.20 and possibly retest 124.9 before bouncing back around the upper channel for a possible price correction respecting the current trend indicator. One could also notice a bullish hidden divergence on the RSI as it creates a lower low while the candle stick chart creates a higher low on the daily time frame signaling for a potential turn to the upside. Any shift in fundamental factors, however, might negate this bullish indicator.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets