Crude oil trend analysis
Last Friday there was a unilateral rise of more than 20 points, which is not large in terms of magnitude. After all, the one-day fluctuation in previous years was 30 points. Crude oil prices have been rising for 3 consecutive months. I think that in The price will usher in a correction this week. There will be a certain degree of decline.
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Oilcrash
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE Hello every one i said about oil 2 weeks ago now i updated this chart and added new idea about oil
ok. as you see Oil can see higher prices and after reaching the specified points can fill its inefficiencies and come down on the other hand because in this chart in the weekly time frame we have meditation and all areas of demand have been consumed can fall well after the Ukraine-Russia war
But as I said, this chart wants to experience prices from $ 105 to $ 120 and then come down.
I wish you a good day.
WTI Cude (OIL) SELL TRADE IDEA
💹WTI Crude Oil ⏬ SELL @ 80.99
✅TP-1# 80.09
✅TP-2# 79.10
✅TP-3# 78.10
⛔️SL 82.00
N.B- If have small balance to trade. Plz avoid OIL trade now.
Because market highly volatile.
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The Oil industry is weeks away from collapsing. (GUSH)I'm currently short on Oil by shorting GUSH and longing the inverse DRIP. Besides global economic uncertainty, the markets are still showing weakness and not showing any signs of recovery. Also on the 2 day chart, every death cross or green dot shown on my indicators has always resulted in a massive dump.
The Coming Oil Bust - Oil is DRIPingAn increasingly precarious situation is growing in the black oil kingdom in the Arabian Peninsula. As the clown nation of the US, that has built much of its economy and job market on artificially high oil prices, the Saudis have all the reason to undercut high WTI prices by continuing to ramp up production. While British Petroleum has come to terms with the fact that peak oil is on the horizon, by the 2030s, many other oil companies swoon and maintain their denial that this is just a shortterm thing and we will be back to $75 oil in no time.
www.israelhayom.com
Saudis complacent about oil production cuts
www.resilience.org
Peak oil by 2030s - BP
oilprice.com
Oil will return and grow - Conocophillips
And with the ticking time bomb that is the American economic and political catastrophe lingers, American oil companies (many based in Houston, Texas, a city that has seen extreme growth from oil for decades) have been going bankrupt left and right for years. The vast majority of these companies have benefitted from easy liquidity injections, much like Rex Tillerson's disastrous tenure as CEO at ExxonMobile has led to a disgusting, reckless amount of debt attainment.
www.worldoil.com
200+ American Shale companies gone bust
seekingalpha.com
www.worldoil.com
ExxonMobil's reckless balance sheet
The US has little evidence of returning back to normal, and the bad news just keeps on piling up. Not to mention, so many jobs are becoming state-at-home permanently, I know plenty of people personally have moved back home.
www.theverge.com
And now China is taking austerity measures, even moving to make sure people don't eat more than they're supposed to (you can't make this shit up).
asiatimes.com
China has had an ongoing disaster of a return. Their oil consumption has been less, and with their second largest construction company collapsing, food shortages, natural disasters, livestock sicknesses - it's looking like the mighty China is barely hanging on by a thread while they try to push the narrative that their 3-house-a-person status doesn't mean much (and no one is going to want to buy any of that real estate in those ghost towns. they're all going to collapse before they're even inhabited.)
www.scmp.com
And if you want to throw some propaganda from CNN or some Chinese news outlet about how great China is doing, do yourself a favor and watch the China Hustle and you'll learn all about China's precious economy ;).
P.S. Buy DRIP
U-Shape? V-Shape? Recovery Shapes Explained And What They Mean ?🎈 Here are the most common economic recovery shapes and what they mean. While economic growth can be measured by any number of metrics—like the stock market or employment rates for example—we’ll focus on GDP.
📍 A V-shaped recovery means that the economy bounces back quickly to its baseline before the crisis, with no hiccups along the way. Growth continues at the same rate as before. This is one of the most optimistic recovery patterns because it implies that the downturn did not cause any lasting damage to the economy.
Under this scenario, the economic damage lasts for a longer period of time before eventually reaching the baseline level of growth again. The economy bounces back, but the damage at the bottom lingers for a while.
📍 In a W-shaped recession, also called a double dip, the economy moves beyond a recession into a period of recovery before falling back down again into another recession. The initial recovery is sometimes known as a bear market rally.
One example: After the oil and inflation crises in 1979, the U.S. fell into two back-to-back recessions in 1980 and 1981.
📍 An L-shaped recovery is the most pessimistic scenario. In this shape, the economy recovers to a certain degree from a steep drop, but growth never reaches pre-crisis levels for years, if at all. A period of economic stagnation follows.
📍 A recovery scenario resembling the Nike “swoosh” logo is characterized by a steep drop and a gradual recovery, meaning that it takes much longer to return to pre-crisis growth levels than it took to fall into recession.
A variant of this is a square root-shaped recession where growth recovers but then plateaus before reaching pre-crisis levels. Lowenstein says this is his base case scenario.
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RIG testing crucial multi-year supportFrom February 2011 until November 2016, a major resistance trend line has kept RSI well below 50. In November 2016, there was a minor breakout, which ultimately failed and re-entered bearish territory. Since August of 2017, the RSI has held above this trend line until this month.
After the RSI resistance breakout in late 2017, the trend line has been tested on 3 different occasions for support;
- February 2018
- December 2018
- August/September 2019
We are currently BELOW this trend line, but the monthly still has one full trading week left.
They say the more times a trend line is tested, the weaker it gets. Although I agree whole heartedly with that statement, it truly depends on the area you're attempting to trade. With investor sentiment currently in the toilet due to Coronavirus, there is an extreme amount of fear and a record number of short positions.
This trend line is now very very close to oversold. With price below it, it is in my opinion a very strong buy signal especially if accompanied by a hammer close.
On the most recent successful support re-tests, price wicked below and closed as a hammer, even after strong bearish pressure. Currently, RIG is only 00.08 points away from exactly 30 RSI. SERIOUS bullish RSI divergences are present in the daily, 2D, 2W, monthly, 2M and 3M charts.
There is especially strong bullish divergence in the MACD on all time frames above the weekly.
MACD:
RSI:
Monthly zoomed out
😱 USOIL, WTI — CRASH EXPLAINED! 🤫🤫🤫👋Hello people!
This is the topic of the day.
In short video I explained basics of this price action. 👇
Why it is happening!
Can I buy Oil cheap now?
Global recession?!
Will other markets follow? 👇
Not really. But this is example of Futures trading. And new traders should understand one simple rule — Everything Can Happen!
Thanks for your attention!
Recommend to put like below this video! 👍💗🧡
Write in comments what you think :) ☁︎
Stay tuned to Artem Crypto !
HALHalliburton looks ripe for a reversal here, after oil has dumped to $23 & the stock market has tanked HAL has touched all the way down to massive historical support and rejected. Buyers have sent the stock from the low $4 level back up close to $8 in a matter of 2 days, The 200 ema on the monthly is around $34 and seems to me like maybe another touch down to $4 b4 lift off back to $35 maybe even $55. The R/R seems really good for a long here and I may just take a shot.
My plan was to wait till Monday after the Witching Hour this Friday to see for a possible double bottom but I may just buy in tomorrow. Depends on how the markets react, for now I am just watching but anxiously waiting for a chance to catch this knife, I also don't want to be too greedy. $7 --> $35 is a nice 80% gain.
CRUDE OIL to break $20?? Next Level?From my charts, today marks the lowest Fibs level that crude oil could go. I do think that this would be the bottom, however.... if it breaks this mark, the next possible level for it to reach could be the low of $10-$12 ... which is alarming for the big O&G companies.. but on a consumer level, that means cheaper travels and other general necessity that involves oil comsumtion in their supply chain..
Is this good or bad? I don't know.. its abit of both, but the market has a way of adhering to cycles.. lets just wait and see..
SPX DownTrend to Correction OR Crash; Oil/Gold Divergence!Looks like a crash setup. Powerful bearish divergence in oil - dropping while gold rockets. Last seen this divergence in 2000, 2008 just weeks before the crashes.
Probably not a good idea to sell puts short right now... Fool's rally going for a day or two; if we see a pinbar that would be identical confirmation pattern we saw in Aug 2008.
Rally could get as high as 26200 Dow, near 2880 SPX; or just get rejected from the down channel TL. Getting long in here is pretty risky. Scalp if you dare! GLTA!
MW Article: www.marketwatch.com
The Chart of Divergence: ei.marketwatch.com
0415-USOIL Analysis
USOIL
Oil seems demand to have correction because of close below $64 last week, thus there would reveal downward pressure today.
Therefore, around at 63.70 and reversal horizon will be a good situation to short oil.
Once if oil breakdown 63.11, the correction will target to 62.77 or more.
Support: 62.77 / 63.11
Resistance: 63.70 / 64.02
CRUDE OIL LONG-TERM OUTLOOK TO GO 'SHORT'Looking at the long-term analysis on the 1D view of Crude Oil, it looks like it is headed downward. Swing trade wise, it could still go up to 67/68 region, which you can swing trade if the opportunity presents itself. However, long-term view Oil is headed downward from it's July's high of 74, prices are below ichimoku cloud which is bear market indication. Now it could take weeks/months to hit bottom but I suggest leaning toward bear trend for the long-term outlook.
Have a look at 1HR or even 4/hr view for a more suitable entry point to go short. Suitable entry point being when many indicators are corresponding to go short, this way you are not stuck in a huge retracement and confuse for a trend reversal.
'A retracement is a temporary reversal in the direction of a stock's price that goes against the prevailing trend.'
The different yellow horizontal lines represent possible support and resistance areas after analyzing Oil market on 4HR, 1D and the 1W view. I suggest using it as a guideline and look for areas yourself and work with indicators in the long term view to determine when you want to exit market.
Please remember to look at what indicators are telling you if you can understand some, as they would likely help you determine a suitable entry point. Also, do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the posiblity to hedge yourself, for more confident traders imo.
All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.
Is oil about to crash to the 60.00 level again?Technicals perfectly matching on this charts. Momentum slowing down as you can see on the RSI. On the lower timeframe (daily and below) we recently saw the impulsive oil drop that does not look like it's going to stop really soon.
Price may go up towards the 75 level and build up some decent resistance right there before it drops down. The trendline from June 2017 is quite strong and if that significantly breaks, oil prices are likely to fall down further towards the 60 level. Maybe the weekly COI (Crude oil inventories) can push this to this area.
A significant move above 75 will make this setup invalid.
A break of the trendline or break of the lows means we can start to expect bearish movement and a drop off towards 60
OIL SHORT: Biggest scam of the year or technical consolidation?Dear shorts, I know most of us are extremely frustrated with the situation of OIL in the past (almost) 2 months. Whilst it should have retraced a long time ago, it can't seem to do so. In the early stages of this short trade, mostly technical indicators supported the idea whilst in the past ±4 weeks fundamental factors should cause oil to crash, since despite OPEC's pitiful attempt to cut production, the glut has grown. Yet, we see oil refusing to crash and moreover, we see oil skyrocketing on days where data is the worst. This makes no sense fundamentally and thus I was led to conclude that there are MM involved in this state in which oil is traded under. Still, before every major downturn for oil we see a period of consolidation ranging from 16d to 58d. The longer the consolidation the worst the movement downwards (statistically). Despite my frustration I have been averaging down my position every time I find an opportunity. The downturn should start soon and it will be ugly. All the pumpers will flee and oil should crash. Yet, there is a possibility that pumpers win since the divergence between Hedge Fund and retail traders positions are at a huge divergence. Thus, I will set my stop in the range of 55-55.35.
Still short this till the 40's.I ended up holding my short position today, still in the hunt for the 40's.
Bear divergence still there, RSI trending down towards oversold.
Oil seems to be bouncing in between the two light blue bars, watch for a strong break either way.
Pair this with my other ideas.
The stubborn hunt for the 40'sStill short from $54, have not sold or added to my position at all.
Blue line: $52 transition line, this line needs to be broken strong for us to head lower imo.
Red trend-lines: We've see an increase in prices, with declining RSI. This is a bear divergence.(whether or not it will play it is another story, yet I believe it will)
Orange line: This was a bull RSI trend-line witch has been broken as of late, and the RSI is beginning to look very bearish to me.
The flags are areas in which I am predicting that the RSI and price will hit. I am not adding or selling any of my position for the near future (obviously unless my SL at BE gets hit).
I will be expecting slight bounces based on some BS news from the middle east, or if we hit any support areas on the way down, however I will not be scared into selling something that easily looks bearish in my eyes.
The continued short of oil..So I didn't sell any of my $54 oil shorts today when it rebounded, I just moved my stop to break-even.
Today we saw a major miss in inventories, which was initially bearish, but was somehow bullish?
I'm still short because of the numerous reports that essentially the OPEC "cut" is garbage, and on top of that oil inventories are growing, while demand remains stalled.
There's still a bear divergence in the RSI, but we must carefully watch the $52 transition area (in blue), as a strong break above could signal a higher high.