Can the oil price recovery last?Judging from the trend of crude oil, since crude oil rebounded above 74, the technical bullish signal has been significantly strengthened.However, although the current oil price has returned to the range of the box, on the whole, the current price has basically touched the vicinity of the pressure zone of the previous box shock.In addition, judging from the strength of the recent rebound, it has not been as strong, so the trend may face a certain level of adjustment in the short term, and there is a technical need to step back on the midline of the channel to confirm the demand.After the last wave of the 4-hour level trend rose, the price was temporarily.The narrow volatility that remains at a high level weakens the strength of the upper attack, so there may be a trend of spatial correction in the short term.
Short-term trading reference: Sell crude oil near the 74.3 position, stop loss level 74.7, take profit level 73.2
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Oilcrude
Crude oil rebounded strongly, opening the way to rise?At present, it is in the process of rebounding after a volatile decline, and the short-term trend is relatively volatile. On the one hand, oil prices have initially bottomed out, which is a bit like a sign of inverted V reversal; on the other hand, oil prices seem to be undergoing a correction after breaking the level and falling.At present, the short-term rebound is relatively strong, but before regaining 72.4, it is still necessary to beware of the possibility of oil prices returning to the downward trend. If the 72.4 position can be recovered, it will be determined that the V-shaped reversal is established and increase the bullish signal in the future.If oil prices are delayed in regaining the 72.4 position, there is a technical need for a secondary bottoming demand, which will increase the short-term bearish signal.
In the short-term treatment, the bottom pays attention to the support of the 69-70 line, and the top pays attention to the resistance at the 72.4 position.
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Crude oil continues to fall, where will it stop falling?Crude oil prices continued to fall today, and are currently trading near US 65 per barrel.On the fundamental level, the supply and demand structure of the international crude oil market is still a small oversupply. Unless OPEC has a significant production reduction, it will be difficult to achieve much growth on the demand side.
Although UBS reached an agreement to acquire Credit Suisse over the weekend, and the Federal Reserve and other six major central banks jointly acted to enhance liquidity to appease and stabilize global financial markets, U.S. crude oil once rebounded by more than 1% to US 67.4 per barrel, but worries quickly picked up again, and the United States still has unresolved banking problems. The market is worried that the banking crisis will develop into a global financial tsunami, which in turn will drag down crude oil demand. U.S. crude oil quickly took back gains and continued last week's decline. It is currently down more than 2%, with a minimum of US 64.4 per barrel, which is December 2, 2021. A new low since then.
From the trend point of view, oil prices broke down after a wide-ranging shock at the daily level, and continued to fall after losing the important support of the 70-integer mark. Even if the 70-integer mark was not recovered during the subsequent rebound and the decline continued, the downward break was basically determined. The technical side is biased towards bears, and the future market of oil prices is inclined to further test the support near the December 2021 low of 62.46, and even look at the 60-integer mark.The initial resistance above is near 67. If this position can be recovered, it will increase the possibility of low oil price shock adjustment.
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Ready to short crude oilThere are still concerns about the banking crisis in Europe and the United States in the market. Some investors are even worried about the arrival of a new round of global economic crisis. Moreover, the market is still worried about the oversupply of crude oil, and the future of oil prices is still biased towards bears.
It was mentioned in the article shared yesterday that once crude oil is established to be effective in breaking below the 70 mark, it is likely to fall further below the low of 66.15 on December 20, 2021 and the low of 62.46 on December 2, 2021. Near the position.At present, since crude oil fell below the low of 72.3 in the shock range, it has fallen sharply again. The lowest has reached near 65.6, and there is only room for 3 US dollars from the low of 62.46 on December 2, 2021. Now the short market is very strong, even in a small cycle, after a short pause or rebound in the falling market, it will choose to fall again, and the bulls have no resistance.Therefore, the current thinking about crude oil is still based on emptiness.
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Continue to go long on crude oil.
Due to positive data, the oil price continues to rise. Our long position took profit at 76.3. Currently, it seems that there is still momentum for oil to continue its upward trend, with the MACD indicator showing a second bullish crossover on the 2-hour chart. Resistance is near 78.5, so I believe we can continue to enter long positions with a trading strategy of entering around 76.3-75.8 and setting a profit target in the 78-79 range. If the oil price can break through the 79 level, the next target is around 80.8.
TVC:USOIL MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
Going long on crude oil.
The crude oil is currently trading around 74.8, with some support visible on the 4-hour chart. In the short term, there is upward momentum observed on the 1-hour chart. As a trading strategy, one can go long near 74.8 and target 76.3, with the possibility of further upside if the resistance at 76.3 is breached. If unable to break through, a short position can be considered at 76.3. I will keep you updated in due course.
Short-term trading strategy: Go long near 74.8 with a target of 76.3.
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
Buy crude oil at 80.43.
The core of trading is not how much profit can be made in a single transaction, but whether one can achieve sustained and stable profitability over the long term.
In the previous article, the strategy given for crude oil was to go long at 78.5, with the target at 80.5, and it was a perfect take-profit. Currently, the support level on the hourly chart is at 80.43, and waiting for a pullback without breaking the support level is a suitable choice.
Current trading plan: Go long at 80.43 for crude oil, with a stop loss at 80.13 and a target at 81.50. I will remind you when the trading point is reached. Liking, commenting, and subscribing are the greatest encouragement for me. Follow me to make trading easier! You are also welcome to refer to other ideas below.
Ready to buy crude oil again.
Friends who followed my previous article have already sold at the perfect profit point. As expected, the trend is up from 78.5 to 80.5. So, there are still opportunities in the oil market.
Personally, I believe that the 1-hour chart will form support around $80 and then continue to rise. It's not far from the buy point now!
I will update the specific trading strategy later.
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China's turmoil, SPRs, and further deterioration in outlookIn our previous update on West Texas Intermediate crude oil, we updated our price target from long-term to medium-term. Additionally, we stated that this price target could soon become short-term, depending on oil market developments. Today, finally, USOIL hit a new yearly low at 73.62$, further confirming our bearish thesis. Accordingly, we continue to maintain our price target at 70$.
Our views are based on a combination of fundamental and technical factors. We expect the global recession to weigh heavily on oil prices in the coming months. In addition to that, we expect the United States to offset any price increases with more releases of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR).
As if it was not enough, turmoil in China also does not support the bullish narrative, putting higher prices at risk. The same applies to OPEC member countries that seek to increase their production despite a slowing economy. Overall, we have no reason to change our bearish outlook.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The illustration shows the daily chart of USOIL, simple support/resistance levels, and two moving averages. At the moment, the price appears too far from these moving averages, likely foreshadowing a correction to the upside (as the price deviated too far from its MAs). Now, these MAs act as significant resistance levels.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Oil set for higher pricesTrade Idea: Buying Oil
Reasoning: Head and shoulders setup still possible on the daily chart.
Entry Level: 86.46
Take Profit Level: 92.66
Stop Loss: 83.43
Risk/Reward: 2.05:1
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WTI oil - Oil continues to drift lowerOver the past four months, we repeated that oil prices were peaking and the downside was looming over the oil market. Despite the excess of bullish calls forecasting new ATH for oil prices, we stuck to our bearish bias. Indeed, a few months ago, we set price targets of 100 USD, 95 USD, and 90 USD for USOIL. After hitting the first two price targets, we still remain bearish and maintain a price target of 90 USD for WTI oil. Our views are based upon technical and fundamental factors.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL. Two moving averages, 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, reflect the downtrend.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The weekly chart of USOIL shows 20-week SMA and 50-week SMA. The 20-week SMA appears to be reversing to the downside, which is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
The oil goes overboard (2030-2040)Today's energy crisis is not a sign of strength of the oil companies, it is rather witness to the fact that the world economy has a very high productivity, still partly based on fossil fuels, but now moving towards properly renewable and alternative resources. I believe that the tops we will reach in the next few months will only accelerate the transformation into properly renewable energies. Oil demand will drop rapidly in the next decades, altough the demand will remain for some products (plastics, mechanics, etc.).
This is not a trading recommendation, nor an advise to buy or sell anything.
🗣 O I L These are levels that I'll be keeping an eye on when dealing with USOIL, and I'll revise as price action progresses.
I adapt to the change in money flow.
This is a representation of greed in play when it comes to oil. However, I do believe in the coming months things will get very interesting due to price action's placement in the market, things that have taken place in the past that left clues for what can possibly come in the near future along with any fundamentals that can play a part in this as well.
As of right now I feel as though it wouldn't be smart to execute any short orders due to the higher perspective showing strong bullish sentiment. I did notice that P.A. is currently in between two daily ranges, so it's not entirely impossible to sell, but I'm sure some would agree to stay on bull's side.
What am I waiting to see happen?
I'm anticipating for price to reach around $140 per barrel (can possibly take place between July/August) which will then form a double-top from a monthly perspective. That's also where price pivoted back in 2008, the potential profit margin stretches down to the $40 range which can be seen from the 3 & 6 month perspectives.
The 1st area where I would look to lock in some profits would be around the $80 price point. Why? That's right above EQ within the monthly ranges that can be seen on the chart.
In conclusion, at this time I would simply sit on my hands and wait until price reach key levels I'm interested in to then zero in on smaller perspectives in order to receive the "signal" to execute. Just my thoughts..
OIL BRENT Local Short!!OIL_BRENT is trading in a narrwing wedge
And will soon retest a horizontal resistance at 112.45
A bearish move down will follow
However, IF the resistance is broken to the upside
The setup is invalid
USOIL - Russian oil ban = higher oil pricesMore than a week ago, we warned about potential EU's ban on Russian oil and the risk it poses for the higher price of oil. We suggested that this step would lead to higher prices of oil in the short-term. Just two days ago, Germany was reported to back a gradual ban on Russian oil. Because of that we abandon our short-term and medium-term price targets. Although, our long-term price target remains in place.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI points to the upside which is bullish; however, over the past few days, it shows choppy pattern. MACD oscillates near the midpoint; if it manages to break above it, then we expect it to bolster a bullish case for USOIL. Stochastic is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bearish but due to perform bullish crossover. ADX signals presence of no significant trend. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish for USOIL.
Illustration 1.01
The illustration above shows the rectangle pattern - in which most of the choppy price action has been going on lately.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is neutral. MACD is highly elevated and flattening at the same moment, which makes it neutral. Stochastic reversed to the upside. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market. However, ADX's signals that these conditions deteriorated over the past four weeks. Overall, the weekly time frame is mixed.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
UsOil in your HandsPlease read the description below carefully
We have Scenarios about oil And for now two of them is important !
In this analysis, it is assumed that wave 5 is extended !
scenario 1 : we in wave 4 and the pattern is Triangle ! So after Wave e ( close 93 ) complete, we have an impulse to complete wave 5 ( 140 or above )
scenario 2 : in this scenario, Wave 4 has a zigzag structure ( abc ) And wave c is completed near 84 !
If price broke 84 dollar and stabilizes below that, then Wave 5 was not extended And the peak is before the end of wave 5 and we enter a heavy correction which is given an analysis update.
wish you all the bset !
USOIL WTI Crude Oil TrendlineIf you haven`t bought the $94 pullback:
Then you should know that USOIL in on a bullish trendline for this summer.
UBS laid out three reasons for its $125 USOIL this summer:
1. Russian oil exports hurt by sanctions, which will further tighten global supplies.
2. Spare capacity brought in by OPEC is less than 2% of global demand.
3. Global oil demand still heading for record highs with Europeans and Americans returning to normal travel patterns once COVID-19 restrictions are lifted.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.