USO is in a sweet spot on its chart LONGUSO while the middle east, the Houthi rebels and the Suez Canal shipping quagmire affect
oil liquidity globally and prices at the pump continue to be volatile the federal government
seeks contracts to restore the national strategic reserves depleted in the last supply demand
challenge while the presidential and congressional election cycle starts warming up.
On the weekly chart, USO has just crossed over the long term anchored mean VWAP line
as well as the POC line of the volume profile. This is a bullish momentum move. Price is
situated in the middle of the high volume area showing expectations of decent trading volume
and liquidity. I see this as an opportunity to take long trades in oil or anything oil related.
CVX is on sale after a drop after the morning open. i will look at oilfield services stocks, big
oil and oil futures.
Oilfieldstocks
SDRL an oil services and support company LONGSDRL is a Scandavania / UK-based company supporting offshore oil drilling projects. On the
daily chart I have drawn a green support trendline and a red resistance trendline from the
higher weekly timeframe. Fundamentally- it has had two consecutive earnings beats. Per
Tradingview, the average analyst has a price of $45 as a target and technically it rates
Strong Buy. On the chart, SDRL is sitting at the confluence of convergence of moving averages
with the POC line of the volume profile and inside a symmetrical triangle which could
be considered as demonstrative of consolidation and volatility compression and sometimes
called a Bollinger Band squeeze.
I will take this long trade targeting the line just below the supply zone of the Luxalgo indicator
and setting a stop loss at the bottom of the high-volume area also marked on the chart
SDRL could be a takeover target with the buyer being any number of Big Oil companies
Should such occur share prices would escalate far beyond any current expectations.
HAL an energy stock setting up LONGHAL being part of the energy/ oil sector has been down lately but after all in keeping
with the concept of buying low and selling high, it may be at a buying point. Here in the 4H
chart, I have set up two long term anchored VWAPs one at the swing pivot high a year ago
and another at a swing pivot low last October. As a result the chart has zones between the
values (1) the mean VWAP zone between the two thick black lines. (2) the upper and lower
one standard deviation from the mean zones between lighter blue lines and (3) the
upper and lower two standard deviations from the mean zones between the lighter red lines.
HAL's price has crossed the mean WVAP zone from underneath it, a sign of bullish
momentum and so a buy signal. The targets are the evolving dynamic resistance above
in the form of the zones between the blue lines and beyond that the red lines.
The volume profile with a POC line near to the mean VWAP validates the setup.
Accumulation in the three months as shown by higher relative volumes in the past
three months is another validation. More demand will push prices higher.
I see this as a long-trade setup. ( I also rely on Buffet buying more OXY ) My preferred
position is a call option expiring in November or December at a strike $30-31 which
if performing well will be held until a couple of weeks before expiration . This idea is
meant to highlight the use of anchored VWAP on high time frame charts to capture the
role of both price and volume in market dynamics and in the determination of zones of
liquidity and volatility so as to provide quality analysis without reliance on multiple
lagging indicators that may neglect any focus on volume and so handicap the trader
seeking to take high quality A+ setups layering in some trade managment tactics to
optimize alpha returns.
ERX Energy is backERX is a leveraged ETF tracking the energy sector. On the 4H chart it has been in a downtrend
since mid-March. IT dropped to the bottom of the high volume area on the long term profile
as well as the lowermost VWAP band. Firday May 12th marked the reversal with buying volume
replacing selling volume and then a significant rise in price in the past week.
On the AI moving moving average indicator, the optimized shorter Hull moving average
(red line) has crossed over the longer EMA moving average ( blue line) as has the price.
I conclude the energy sector is heating up. My new idea on BOIL supports this. I will take
trades with energy in mind and review big oil stocks and natural gas stocks as well as
pipeline and oilfield services stocks.