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Oilforecast

OIL Today's strategyIn the medium term, because the lower edge of the channel has been broken, the short force is relatively dominant, and crude oil may face certain downward pressure. However, today's crude oil prices are affected by tightening expectations on the supply side, geopolitics and other factors, and the short-term trend is strong, and there is a certain upward momentum on the technical side. Investors need to pay close attention to the breakout of key support and resistance levels. OIL Today's strategy buy@67.5-68 tp:69-69.5 We share various trading signals every day with over 90% accuracy Fans who follow us can get high rewards every day If you want stable income, you can contact me
TVC:USOIL
by HenryClarke
Oil - Expecting Retraces and Further Continuation HigherH1 - Bullish trend pattern in the form of higher highs, higher lows structure Strong bullish momentum Bearish divergence on the moving averages of the MACD indicator. Expecting retraces and further continuation higher until the two strong support zones hold. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:WTILong
by VladimirRibakov
Technical Analysis for WTI Crude Oil (Daily Chart)Current Price Action WTI crude oil is trading at $70.51, showing a recovery from the Liquidity Pool zone near the $66.00–$67.00 range. The price has approached a key resistance level around $71.00, which aligns with a previous area of rejection in February 2025. The chart suggests a potential pullback from this resistance level, as indicated by the projected downward arrow. Support Levels: $66.00–$67.00: This zone represents a significant liquidity pool where buyers have consistently stepped in, leading to a reversal in price. $65.00: A psychological support level and the lower boundary of the liquidity pool. Resistance Levels: $71.00: A critical resistance level that has acted as a ceiling for price action in recent months. $73.00: The next major resistance level if the price breaks above $71.00. Volume Profile Analysis The Volume Profile on the right side of the chart shows significant trading activity between $70.00 and $71.00, indicating strong resistance in this area. Above $71.00, the volume thins out, suggesting that a breakout could lead to a rapid move toward $73.00. Indicators and Momentum Trend: The price is recovering from a bearish trend but remains below the highs of $80.00 seen earlier in the chart. The current move appears to be a retracement within a broader downtrend. Potential Pullback: The projected arrow on the chart suggests a possible rejection at $71.00, with a pullback toward the $68.00–$69.00 range. Market Sentiment The chart reflects cautious optimism, with buyers stepping in at lower levels but facing strong resistance at $71.00. A breakout above this level could signal a shift in sentiment, while a rejection would confirm the continuation of the bearish trend. Conclusion WTI crude oil is at a critical juncture, testing the $71.00 resistance level. Traders should watch for a breakout above $71.00, which could target $73.00 and higher. Conversely, a rejection at this level may lead to a pullback toward the $68.00–$67.00 support zone. The liquidity pool near $66.00 remains a key area for buyers to defend in the event of further downside.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by fxtraderanthony
OIL Today's strategyIn the short term, there is a simultaneous advance of the long positions in crude oil. The price has tested the vicinity of $68.5 several times but encountered resistance. Moreover, after reaching around $65.2 at the lower level, it rebounded rapidly. The market still needs further testing. In the short term, it is advisable to sell high and buy low within the range of $68.5 to $65.2. OIL Today's strategy sell@67.5-67.9 buy:65.7-66.2 If you don't know how to do it, you can refer to my transaction.
TVC:USOIL
by HenryClarke
1
USOIL at Critical Support – Rebound Toward 73$?TVC:USOIL has reached a major demand zone, an area that has historically acted as strong support. This region has previously triggered sharp rebounds, making it a key level to watch for a potential bullish reaction. The recent sell-off has pushed the price deep into this zone, and early signs of rejection could indicate that buyers are stepping in. If support holds, we could see a recovery toward $73, aligning with a corrective move. However, if price fails to hold and breaks decisively below this zone, it would signal continued weakness, opening the door for further downside, possibly targeting the next support area. Traders should wait for confirmation, such as bullish price action, increased buying volume, or key reversal patterns before committing to long positions.
TVC:USOILLong
by DanieIM
16
Crude Oil Prices: Double-Edged Sword for Indian Marketers The global crude oil market, a volatile beast, dictates the energy landscape for nations worldwide.1 For India, a nation heavily reliant on oil imports, the fluctuations in crude oil prices carry significant implications.2 While a dip in crude oil prices might seem like a welcome relief, especially for consumers, it presents a complex and often challenging scenario for oil marketing companies (OMCs) operating within the Indian market. This seemingly beneficial drop in prices acts as a double-edged sword, bringing with it a unique set of complexities that stem from market dynamics, government policies, and the intrinsic characteristics of the oil and gas sector.3 The initial and seemingly positive impact of lower crude oil prices is the potential for reduced import costs.4 For a country like India, where a substantial portion of its energy needs are met through imports, this can lead to a decrease in the overall expenditure on crude oil. This reduction can, in turn, alleviate pressure on the nation's current account deficit and theoretically translate to lower fuel prices for consumers. However, this potential benefit is often overshadowed by the ever-present threat of government intervention through excise duty hikes. Governments, seeking to bolster their revenue, often capitalize on falling crude oil prices by increasing excise duties on petrol and diesel.5 This strategic move allows them to capture a significant portion of the savings that would otherwise be passed on to consumers. For OMCs, this translates to a reduction in the potential for increased margins. While they still benefit from reduced raw material expenses, the extent of the gain is substantially diminished. This delicate dance between market forces and government policies creates a complex environment for OMCs to navigate. Furthermore, the expectation of price cuts for end consumers becomes a significant challenge for OMCs. Consumers naturally anticipate a corresponding reduction in fuel prices when crude oil prices decline. However, OMCs must carefully balance this expectation with the need to maintain their financial health. Rapid and substantial price cuts can strain their profitability, especially when coupled with excise duty adjustments. This balancing act requires a delicate approach, as OMCs must ensure their financial stability while remaining responsive to consumer demands. Beyond the immediate impact on OMCs, lower crude oil prices pose a significant challenge to the upstream oil and gas sector. Upstream companies, involved in exploration and production, are directly affected by the decline in realized prices for their crude oil. This can lead to reduced profitability, delayed or cancelled investment projects, and even financial distress for some companies. The economic viability of many oil and gas fields is contingent on a certain price threshold. When prices fall below this level, production becomes less attractive, potentially hindering future energy security. The impact on the gas sector is particularly noteworthy. Natural gas economics are often intertwined with crude oil prices, with gas prices sometimes linked to oil price benchmarks.6 A decline in crude oil prices can thus indirectly affect gas prices, making gas production and distribution less profitable. This can have broader implications for the energy sector, as natural gas is increasingly seen as a cleaner alternative to other fossil fuels.7 Reduced investment in gas infrastructure and production can hinder the transition towards a more sustainable energy mix. Moreover, the volatility associated with fluctuating crude oil prices creates uncertainty for OMCs and the entire energy sector.8 Long-term planning and investment decisions become more difficult when the market is subject to rapid and unpredictable price swings. This uncertainty can deter investment in new projects and hinder the development of a stable and reliable energy supply. This volatility necessitates a robust and adaptable strategy for OMCs to navigate the unpredictable market. From a macroeconomic perspective, while lower crude prices can potentially stimulate economic activity by reducing fuel costs for businesses and consumers, the potential for reduced government revenue due to lower oil prices (if excise duties are not increased) must be considered. In a country like India, where government revenue is crucial for funding infrastructure projects and social programs, a significant decline in oil-related revenue can have far-reaching consequences. This highlights the need for a balanced approach to fiscal policy, ensuring that government revenue remains stable while providing relief to consumers. The challenges posed by lower crude oil prices highlight the need for a balanced and nuanced approach to energy policy. Governments must strike a delicate balance between providing relief to consumers, maintaining fiscal stability, and supporting the long-term health of the oil and gas sector. This requires careful consideration of excise duty adjustments, pricing mechanisms, and investment incentives. A coherent and forward-looking energy policy is essential to navigate the complexities of the global crude oil market and ensure the nation's energy security. In conclusion, while lower crude oil prices may appear to be a boon, they present a complex set of challenges for OMCs and the broader Indian oil and gas sector. The potential for excise duty hikes, concerns about price cuts, and the impact on upstream realisations and gas economics create a double-edged sword scenario. Navigating this complex landscape requires careful policy decisions and a comprehensive understanding of the intricate dynamics of the global energy market. OMCs must remain adaptable and resilient, while governments must implement policies that balance consumer needs with fiscal stability and long-term energy security.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by bryandowningqln
Go long crude oilDear Traders, Currently, crude oil continues its downward trend, though the pace of its decline has moderated, showing signs of bottoming out. Moreover, oil has now pulled back to the critical support zone around the 68 level. Should oil fail to decisively break below this support, a technical rebound could occur at any moment. Additionally, with oil’s relatively low valuation, it becomes increasingly attractive in the market. For short-term trades, I favor initiating long positions on crude oil, with an initial target of a rebound toward the 69.5-70.5 zone, which seems well within reach.Bros, profits are the ultimate goal in trading. Accumulating profits is what changes lives and destinies. Choosing wisely is far more important than just working hard. If you want to replicate trade signals and earn stable profits, or if you want to deeply learn the correct trading logic and techniques, you can consider joining the channel at the bottom of this article!
TVC:USOILLong
by Trader_Marvin
Oil weekly forecast with buy and sell levelsOil on the weekly chart shows a strong downtrend probably due to economic policies and over production. This week we have to remain cautious and stick to known levels off previous support and resistance. For a buy ill look at entering at 70.80 and follow up through the marked levels. For a sell entry ill look at 70.20 expecting 69.30, 67.80 and high support at 67.00 to 66.80 levels. Check out my other trade ideas linked below for Gold
TVC:USOIL
by F0rexBorex
2
Weekly price prediction: $71.49 (Min) and $77.37 (Max).Projected Price Range The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $71.49 (Min) and $77.37 (Max). Contended Price Levels $74.50 – Point of Control (POC) – potential support $73.22 - $71.49 – High Volume Node (HVN) – potential support $77.32 - $81.62 – Low Volume Node (LVN) – potential resistance Technical Analysis Fibonacci Retracement & Price Movement: The price reached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level in mid-January before retracing. This level has demonstrated consistent horizontal price movement over the past six months, indicating it as a key reference point. Volume Profile Analysis: High Volume Node (HVN): Found between $73.22 and $71.49, indicating strong liquidity and potential support. Low Volume Node (LVN): Between $77.32 and $81.62, which could lead to rapid price spikes if the price enters this zone. MACD and Stochastic RSI: Stochastic RSI (Bottom Indicator): Has shown low bearish momentum over the last two weeks and appears poised for an upward crossover, signalling potential price growth. MACD (Top Indicator): Remains in the negative region, with a few weeks left before a possible crossover, implying continued caution for bullish sentiment. Additional Factors Support & Resistance Considerations: Point of Control (POC) and HVN are close to the current price, reinforcing these as key support zones. The price is currently resting on a previous resistance level that has now turned into support. The black rectangle above the price highlights the LVN region, where rapid price movements could occur. The white rectangle represents a large support zone, which may contribute to horizontal price movement. Geopolitical & Market Sentiment: As always, geopolitical events could significantly impact price fluctuations, and traders should remain alert to any market-moving developments. Conclusion Brent Crude Oil prices for the upcoming week are likely to remain within the projected range, given the strong support levels in the current price zone. However, any breakout downward could be swift, while an upward breakout could be accelerated due to the LVN region.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
Energy Policy and USDWTIKey Entry Points: Ideal Entry: $78 (Sell Position) The $78 level was an optimal sell entry, primarily due to the declaration of emergency in the energy sector made by the new administration. This policy move is expected to increase energy production significantly. The current administration is heavily investing in the energy sector to mitigate price increases in other sectors, combat inflation, and maintain or reduce it. This macroeconomic context highlights why $78 was a strategic sell zone. Current Entry Opportunity: $74 (Sell Position) From a technical analysis perspective, $74 is a notable resistance level. While this level carries more risk compared to $78, it presents a viable sell opportunity due to price inefficiency beginning at this point. Observing the daily chart, we notice an efficient bearish trend with a clear price inefficiency that originated at $74. This inefficiency creates a strong resistance zone, making it a reasonable point for continuation to the downside. Technical Analysis Across Timeframes: Daily Chart: The current bearish trend remains intact. The inefficiency at $74 reinforces the case for selling at this level. While not as secure as the $78 zone, it offers a good probability for a continuation to lower levels. Weekly Chart: The market is currently in an impulsive phase. However, no significant support or resistance zones are evident within this timeframe. This lack of structural confirmation increases the risk of entering at this level. Monthly Chart: The monthly chart shows a clear rejection from a downward resistance. This reinforces the bearish outlook and aligns with the target at $70.80, which represents a strong support level.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by Wiiso
Oil Short 4HI’m excited to share my next setup for Oil. This trading idea is based on correction levels. The main idea area is between 80.35 and 80.25. However, since oil tends to react to the 50 levels, I prefer to focus on the 80.5 level for my entry. For the 4-hour entry, I am waiting for the formation of an M pattern with a lower peak at the second base. I’ll be looking to take scalp sell at the levels of 80.25, 80.35, and 80.5 for the first touches. after that, I'm going to wait for the confirmation to take the main Sell. Please note that, typically, upon the first collision, we could experience either an impulse or a rejection entry. At the second base, we should wait for a consolidation area to confirm our entry. For a better understanding of this setup, please refer to my previous oil chart. TP1: 79.9 TP2: 79.2 TP3: 77.4 SL: 81.35 Please remember that trading carries risks, and it's crucial to do your own research. The ideas shared here reflect my personal analysis and may not guarantee success. Always trade responsibly and consider seeking professional advice if needed. Happy trading!
TVC:USOILShort
by Persian_Traders_
2
Navigating the Oil Market volatile prices Crude oil prices have been on a roller coaster ride in recent times, influenced by a multitude of factors, including geopolitical tensions, economic indicators, and OPEC+ production decisions. Let's break down the key elements affecting the current oil market: The Russia-Ukraine War and Sanctions The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been a significant driver of oil price volatility. Russia is a major oil exporter, and the Western sanctions imposed on the country have disrupted global supply chains. This has led to supply concerns and consequently, higher oil prices. OPEC+ Production Cuts The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) have been actively managing oil production levels to stabilize the market. Their decision to cut production has had a direct impact on increasing oil prices. This move aims to balance supply and demand, ensuring oil prices remain at profitable levels for member countries. US Oil Production and Inventory Levels The United States is a major oil producer, and its production levels and inventory change s influence global oil prices. While US production has increased, it hasn't been enough to offset the supply disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and OPEC+ production cuts. Lower US oil inventories have also contributed to the upward pressure on prices. Oil Algorithmic Traders Loosen Grip on Market After Back to Back Annual Losses Gusgraph.com Global Economic Recovery and Demand The global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased demand for oil. As economies reopen and travel picks up, the demand for fuel has surged, putting upward pressure on oil prices. Other Factors In addition to the above factors, other elements such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, currency fluctuations, and speculative trading can also impact oil prices. In conclusion, the current oil price surge is a result of a complex interplay between geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, and economic indicators. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, OPEC+ production cuts, and robust global economic recovery are the primary drivers pushing oil prices higher. Navigating the Oil Market: A Day Trader's Guide The oil market is a dynamic and complex arena, presenting both significant opportunities and formidable challenges for day traders. Understanding the key drivers of oil price fluctuations is crucial for developing effective trading strategies. Key Factors Influencing Oil Prices: Geopolitical Events: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia have significantly disrupted global oil supply chains. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, a major oil-producing region, can also trigger price volatility. OPEC+ Production Decisions: The decisions of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) regarding production cuts or increases have a direct and significant impact on oil prices. Global Economic Growth: Strong economic growth translates to increased demand for energy, driving up oil prices. Conversely, economic slowdowns can lead to lower demand and lower prices. US Oil Production and Inventories: Changes in US oil production and inventory levels play a crucial role in influencing global oil prices. Currency Fluctuations: The value of the US dollar against other major currencies can impact oil prices, as oil is typically priced in US dollars. Day Trading Opportunities in the Oil Market: The volatile nature of the oil market presents several trading opportunities for skilled day traders: Identifying Trends: Identifying and trading with the prevailing trend (uptrend, downtrend, or sideways) is crucial. Technical analysis tools like moving averages and trend lines can be valuable in this regard. Capitalizing on News Events: Anticipating and reacting to news events, such as OPEC+ meetings, geopolitical developments, and economic data releases, can provide significant trading opportunities. Volatility Trading: High volatility periods can create short-term trading opportunities, but require careful risk management and a robust trading plan. Scalping: Scalping involves taking small profits on small price movements. This strategy requires quick decision-making and a deep understanding of market dynamics. Key Considerations for Day Trading Oil: High Volatility: The oil market is known for its volatility, which can present both significant opportunities and risks. Risk Management: Implementing strict stop-loss orders and position sizing strategies is crucial to manage risk effectively. Fundamental Analysis: Stay informed about geopolitical events, economic data, and industry news to make informed trading decisions. Technical Analysis: Utilize technical indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD to identify entry and exit points. Emotional Control: The volatile nature of the oil market can trigger emotional responses. It's crucial to maintain discipline and avoid impulsive trading decisions.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSD
by Gusflier
1
US Sanctions Send Oil Prices to 4-Month High Oil prices have surged to a four-month high following the announcement of new U.S. sanctions targeting oil exports. This sudden price spike reflects the market's sensitivity to geopolitical events and the potential global oil supply disruption. The sanctions, aimed at Russia and potentially India, have immediately triggered concerns about reduced supply, pushing prices upward. This article delves into the details of these sanctions, their potential impact on the oil market, and the broader economic implications. The Sanctions and Their Target The U.S. government has imposed new sanctions on Indian shipping companies. These sanctions specifically target the country's or entities' ability to export oil, a crucial source of revenue. The rationale behind these sanctions, as stated by the U.S. government, is to punish countries that trade for Russia’s oil during a war with Ukraine. The U.S. aims to exert economic pressure on the targeted entity by restricting oil exports, forcing them to change their policies or behavior. Immediate Market Reaction The oil market reacted swiftly to the news of the sanctions. Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the global benchmarks for oil prices, experienced significant jumps, reaching levels not seen in four months. This immediate price surge underscores the market's anticipation of reduced supply. Traders are factoring in the potential loss of barrels from the market, leading to increased buying activity and pushing prices higher. Potential Impact on Global Oil Supply The extent of the impact on global oil supply depends on several factors, including the volume of oil previously exported by the sanctioned entity and the ability of other oil-producing nations to compensate for the lost supply. If the sanctioned entity was a significant exporter, the impact on global supply could be substantial, leading to further price increases. Conversely, if other producers can ramp up production to offset the shortfall, the price impact might be mitigated. Impact on Consumers Rising oil prices inevitably translate to higher prices at the pump for consumers. This increase in gasoline prices can have a ripple effect throughout the economy, impacting transportation costs, the price of goods and services, and overall inflation. Consumers may face higher costs for commuting, travel, and everyday purchases. Impact on Businesses Businesses, particularly those in transportation, logistics, and manufacturing, are also significantly affected by rising oil prices. Higher fuel costs increase operating expenses, potentially squeezing profit margins. Businesses may be forced to pass these increased costs on to consumers, further contributing to inflationary pressures. Geopolitical Implications These sanctions and their impact on oil prices also have broader geopolitical implications. They can strain relationships between the U.S. and other countries, particularly those that rely on oil imports from the sanctioned entity. The sanctions can also create opportunities for other oil-producing nations to increase their market share. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) In response to potential supply disruptions, governments may consider releasing oil from their strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). The SPR is an emergency stockpile of crude oil maintained by several countries, including the U.S. Releasing oil from the SPR can temporarily increase supply and help stabilize prices. However, the effectiveness of this measure depends on the size of the release and the duration of the supply disruption. Long-Term Outlook The long-term impact of these sanctions on oil prices is uncertain. It depends on various factors, including the duration of the sanctions, the response of other oil-producing nations, and the overall state of the global economy. If the sanctions remain in place for an extended period and other producers cannot fully compensate for the lost supply, oil prices could remain elevated. Conclusion The recent surge in oil prices following the announcement of new U.S. sanctions highlights the interconnectedness of geopolitics and energy markets. The sanctions, aimed at exerting pressure on India and Russia, have triggered concerns about reduced oil supply and have led to a significant price increase. The impact of these sanctions will be felt by consumers, businesses, and the global economy as a whole. The situation underscores the importance of monitoring geopolitical events and their potential impact on energy markets. While the long-term outlook remains uncertain, the immediate impact is clear: higher oil prices and increased volatility in the energy sector.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
1
Oil Algo Trading Strategy Lost Its Edge?Oil Algorithmic Traders Loosen Grip on Market After Back-to-Back Annual Losses A Shift in the Oil Trading Landscape In the intricate world of oil trading, where fortunes are made and lost on the fluctuations of prices, a significant shift is underway. Algorithmic traders, the computer-driven entities that have come to dominate the market, are pulling back after enduring two consecutive years of losses.1 This retreat marks a notable change in the oil market dynamics, potentially paving the way for a more balanced and predictable trading environment. The Rise of Algorithmic Trading Over the past decade, algorithmic trading, also known as automated or high-frequency trading, has revolutionized financial markets, and the oil market is no exception.2 These sophisticated systems employ complex algorithms and statistical models to identify and exploit trading opportunities at speeds that are impossible for human traders to match.3 Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), a prominent class of algorithmic traders, specialize in trend-following strategies.4 They capitalize on market trends by buying when prices are rising and selling when prices are falling. Their ability to execute trades rapidly and efficiently has made them a dominant force in the oil market, often amplifying price swings and influencing market direction.5 The Tide Turns for Algorithmic Traders However, the reign of algorithmic traders in the oil market has faced a significant setback. According to Bridgeton Research Group, which tracks computer-generated trades, CTAs have posted consecutive annual losses for the first time in more than a decade.6 This downturn can be attributed to several factors, including increased market volatility, unexpected geopolitical events, and the inherent limitations of trend-following strategies in rapidly changing market conditions. As a result of these losses, CTAs are reducing their exposure to crude oil.7 It is estimated that they have decreased the weight of crude in their portfolios to a mere 2% compared to 4% in July 2024.8 This pullback is softening their impact on market movements and reducing their share of open interest, signaling a significant shift in the oil trading landscape.9 The Impact on the Oil The retreat of algorithmic traders from the oil market has several potential implications: 1. Reduced Market Market Volatility: Algorithmic trading, particularly trend-following strategies, has been known to exacerbate price swings in the oil market.10 With their reduced presence, the market may experience less volatility and more gradual price movements. 2. Increased Influence of Fundamental Factors: As the influence of algorithmic trading wanes, fundamental factors such as supply and demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical events may play a more prominent role in determining oil prices. 3. Opportunities for Traditional Traders: The pullback of algorithmic traders could create opportunities for traditional traders who rely on fundamental analysis and market expertise. With less competition from high-speed algorithms, these traders may find it easier to identify and capitalize on profitable trading opportunities. 4. A More Balanced Market: The reduced dominance of algorithmic trading could lead to a more balanced and efficient oil market, where a wider range of factors and participants determines prices. The Future of Algorithmic Trading in Oil While algorithmic traders are currently taking a step back from the oil market, it is unlikely that they will disappear entirely. These sophisticated systems still offer significant advantages in terms of speed, efficiency, and data analysis. As technology continues to advance, algorithmic trading is expected to remain an integral part of the financial landscape. However, the recent losses serve as a reminder that algorithmic trading is not without its risks. These systems are only as good as the algorithms and data they are based on. In rapidly changing and unpredictable markets, even the most sophisticated algorithms can struggle to generate consistent profits. Conclusion The retreat of algorithmic traders from the oil market marks a significant turning point. After years of dominating the trading landscape, these computer-driven entities are pulling back, potentially paving the way for a more balanced and less volatile market. While the long-term impact remains to be seen, this shift underscores the dynamic nature of financial markets and the importance of adapting to changing conditions.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
WTI/OIL Bullish Signal triggered7 days ago my bullish signal for oil triggered and I am now long.Now many new facts are being released that are align with my signals. I have collected some very important and interpreted them.This will help you also t understand the backrounds. The bullish trend is currently at its weak phase where many false signals are ofcourse potentially possible. In this phase of the trend I focuse just on risk management(tightenning stops,to breakeven etc. But also increasing my positions in this phase and sizing them up are also possible. Later in strong phase of the trend Iwont increase my positions, but I let the profits run. I marked also Taking profits level for some of you who might are taking profits. Generally I let the profits run and just cut the losses if necessary. Important levels I marked in the chart. Here Important catalysts why I believe Oil will climb up: 1 India Doubles Down on Refining Expansion. India’s state-controlled refiner Bharat Petroleum (NSE:BPCL) announced its plans to invest $11 billion in a new refinery in southern Andhra Pradesh state, adding 180,000 b/d of capacity and an integrated petrochemical plant to meet domestic demand. France Launches First Reactor of 21st Century. 12 years overdue and four times the originally planned budget with a price tag of €13 billion, the Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor was finally connected to France’s power grid this week, marking the first addition of new nuclear capacity since Civaux-2 in 1999. 👉 Interpretation France Launches First Reactor of the 21st Century Key Details: Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor, costing €13 billion and delayed by 12 years, is now operational. First new nuclear capacity addition in France since 1999. Implications for Oil Prices: Reduced Dependence on Fossil Fuels: As nuclear energy replaces some fossil fuel-generated electricity, demand for oil (particularly fuel oil used for power generation in some regions) could decline slightly in Europe over the long term. However, this effect is minor since most oil demand comes from transportation rather than power generation. Transition Signals: The operational reactor signals Europe's commitment to energy transition, which may influence long-term sentiment about reduced reliance on fossil fuels. Neutral Short-Term Impact: Since the reactor serves a domestic market and does not affect global oil supply or demand immediately, the impact on oil prices is negligible in the short term. India Doubles Down on Refining Expansion Key Details: Bharat Petroleum plans a $11 billion investment in a new refinery with a capacity of 180,000 b/d and an integrated petrochemical plant. Focus is on meeting India’s growing domestic energy demand. Implications for Oil Prices: Increased Crude Demand: A new refinery requires crude oil as a feedstock, adding to global oil demand. Once operational, this expansion will support bullish trends in oil prices, especially as India becomes a larger importer of crude. Focus on Domestic Market: The refinery aims to meet rising domestic consumption, particularly for transportation fuels and petrochemicals, reinforcing India’s growing importance as a driver of oil demand. Positive Long-Term Outlook: While the refinery won't impact prices immediately, it highlights the bullish long-term demand trajectory for oil in emerging markets like India. Overall Impact on Oil Prices Bullish Factors: India’s refinery expansion indicates long-term growth in oil demand, supporting bullish sentiment. Emerging markets continue to drive global oil demand, balancing out declines in demand from developed regions. Neutral or Bearish Factors: France's new nuclear reactor reflects progress in the energy transition, potentially reducing oil demand in Europe. However, the short-term impact is negligible. Conclusion India's refinery expansion supports a bullish outlook for oil prices, complementing bullish signal. While France’s nuclear reactor signals a step toward alternative energy, its impact on global oil demand is minimal and overshadowed by growing energy needs in emerging markets like India. Overall, the developments reinforce a stable to slightly bullish environment for oil prices. 2 Turkey Eyes Maritime Delimitation with Syria. The Turkish government is readying to start negotiations with the new al-Julani government of Syria to delineate maritime boundaries in the Mediterranean Sea, a move that would allow Ankara to ‘increase its area of influence’ in energy exploration. US to Finance Guyana’s Gas Power Buildout. The US Export-Import Bank approved a $526 million loan to Guyana for the construction of a 300 MW natural gas-fired power plant that would use ExxonMobil’s associated gas production from the Stabroek block, staving off intense Chinese competition. 👉 Interpretation of this news Here's an analysis of how these developments might influence the oil market Turkey Eyes Maritime Delimitation with Syria Key Details: Turkey plans to negotiate maritime boundaries with the new Syrian government led by al-Julani. The goal is to expand Turkey’s influence in Mediterranean energy exploration. Implications for Oil Prices: Energy Exploration Opportunities: If Turkey successfully delineates maritime boundaries, it could lead to new oil and gas exploration activities in the Mediterranean. This would increase the long-term potential for energy supply, but the impact on oil prices would be delayed and dependent on successful discoveries. Geopolitical Risk Premium: Tensions surrounding maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean have previously caused geopolitical disputes (e.g., with Greece and Cyprus). The potential for disputes with other nations in the region could add a slight risk premium to oil prices. No Immediate Impact: Since this development involves negotiations and potential future exploration, it does not have an immediate impact on oil supply or demand. US to Finance Guyana’s Gas Power Buildout Key Details: The US Export-Import Bank approved a $526 million loan for a 300 MW natural gas-fired power plant in Guyana. The plant will utilize ExxonMobil's associated gas from the Stabroek block, reducing flaring and tapping into a previously unused energy source. Implications for Oil Prices: Gas as an Alternative to Oil: Increased natural gas production in Guyana could slightly offset demand for oil in power generation over the long term. However, this is unlikely to significantly impact crude oil demand globally. US vs. China Competition: The US financing reinforces its influence in Guyana, securing a foothold in the resource-rich region. This limits China's involvement but doesn't directly impact oil prices. Neutral Impact on Crude Oil: Since this involves natural gas and not oil, the direct impact on crude prices is limited. However, the increased utilization of gas could eventually reduce the flare gas associated with oil production, slightly improving efficiency in Guyana's oil operations. Overall Impact on Oil Prices Bullish Factors: Potential geopolitical disputes from Turkey’s maritime moves could introduce a risk premium into oil prices. Long-term developments in Guyana's energy infrastructure reinforce stable energy supply, indirectly supporting efficient oil production. Neutral or Limited Impact: Both developments are longer-term in nature, with no immediate effect on crude oil supply or demand. The news leans more towards a neutral to slightly bullish influence on oil prices. Turkey’s maritime delimitation talks could introduce some geopolitical uncertainty in the Mediterranean, which may support a minor risk premium. However, neither of these developments directly counters or strongly amplifies your bullish oil signal, which remains supported by other recent market-moving news (e.g., Suez disruptions, Shell refinery shutdown). 3 Shell Shuts Singapore Refinery After Leak. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) shut down one of its oil processing units at the 237,000 b/d Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore after the nation’s Port Authority reported a leak of oil products together with the cooling water discharge. Mongolia Walks Back France Uranium Deal. The government of Mongolia has retracted the announcement of reaching a $1.6 billion deal with France’s uranium mining giant Orano, marking another odd roadblock on the way towards launching the Zuuvch Ovoo mine, in development since 2013. 👉I nterpretation of this oil trading news: Here’s how these developments could impact the oil market and your bullish signal on oil prices: Shell Shuts Singapore Refinery After Leak Key Details: Shell has shut down an oil processing unit at the Pulau Bukom refinery (237,000 barrels per day capacity). The shutdown was caused by a leak reported alongside cooling water discharge. Implications for Oil Prices: Tightened Refining Capacity: With one of Asia’s major refining facilities partially offline, there will be reduced supply of refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the region. This could support higher refined product prices, indirectly boosting crude oil demand as refineries aim to maintain supply levels. Short-Term Supply Disruption: Depending on the duration of the shutdown, the disruption could lead to localized supply shortages and increased imports to meet demand, which is bullish for oil prices. Environmental and Regulatory Fallout: If the shutdown is prolonged due to environmental regulations or extensive repairs, the market could factor in sustained supply tightness. 2. Mongolia Walks Back France Uranium Deal Key Details: Mongolia has retracted its announcement of a $1.6 billion deal with France’s Orano for developing the Zuuvch Ovoo uranium mine. The project, in development since 2013, faces yet another delay. Implications for Oil Prices: Energy Diversification Delays: Delays in uranium mining projects hinder the global transition to nuclear energy, which is seen as a long-term competitor to oil and gas. This keeps oil demand relatively higher in the medium term. Market Sentiment: Although this news doesn't directly affect oil supply or demand in the short term, it underscores uncertainties in alternative energy projects, potentially reinforcing the importance of fossil fuels for global energy security. Overall Impact on Oil Prices Bullish Factors: The Shell refinery shutdown could tighten regional supply and indirectly boost crude oil demand to support refining operations. Mongolia's uranium deal setback highlights delays in alternative energy development, indirectly supporting continued oil reliance. Neutral or Limited Impact: The uranium deal issue has no immediate bearing on oil markets but contributes to long-term energy security discussions. Conclusion The Shell refinery shutdown aligns well with bullish signal, as it adds a layer of supply disruption to the oil market. While the Mongolia news has less immediate impact, it reflects ongoing challenges in energy diversification, subtly reinforcing oil's role in the energy mix. Together, these developments lean towards a supportive outlook for higher oil prices in the short term. 4 All these news matter: While we got early bullish signals during the last days,now more news are released.Houthi Warfare Drains Egypt Suez Revenue. Egypt reported that its Suez Canal revenues have plunged by 60% year-over-year in 2024 as Houthi maritime warfare cost the North African country at least $7 billion, worsening Cairo’s plight as the Egyptian pound slid to a record low over the past month. Libya’s Two Governments to End Fuel Subsidies. Libya’s Benghazi government agreed to a proposal from the rival Tripoli government to end fuel subsidies in the war-torn country, with gasoline prices remaining artificially low at $0.11 per gallon, the second-cheapest in the world. Interpretation of oil trading news today: Here’s how the two developments could influence the oil market, particularly in light of your bullish signal on oil prices: Houthi Warfare Drains Egypt Suez Revenue Key Details: Suez Canal revenues are down 60% year-over-year due to Houthi maritime attacks. Losses of $7 billion exacerbate Egypt’s economic woes amid a record low for the Egyptian pound. Implications for Oil Prices: Supply Chain Disruption: The Suez Canal is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments. If Houthi attacks escalate or disrupt transit, it could delay shipments and increase transportation costs, creating upward pressure on oil prices. Risk Premium: Geopolitical instability in the region adds a risk premium to oil prices, as traders factor in potential disruptions. Currency Devaluation Impact: The weakening Egyptian pound might not directly influence oil prices, but it reflects economic instability that could worsen if the Suez remains compromised. Libya’s Two Governments to End Fuel Subsidies Key Details: Rival governments in Libya are cooperating to end fuel subsidies. Gasoline prices, currently at $0.11 per gallon (among the cheapest globally), are set to rise. Implications for Oil Prices: Higher Domestic Costs: Removing subsidies could reduce Libya’s domestic fuel consumption, leaving more oil and refined products for export. Market Balance: Increased exports from Libya could counteract some supply tightness caused by other factors, potentially capping oil price increases. Political Stability: This rare cooperation between Libya’s rival governments could indicate improving governance, which might increase Libya’s crude production and exports in the long term. This could have a bearish effect on oil prices if the market views it as a stabilizing factor. Overall Impact on Oil Prices Bullish Factors: Suez Canal disruptions and geopolitical instability add to the risk premium on oil. Supply chain concerns may tighten market sentiment. Bearish or Neutralizing Factors: Libya’s subsidy removal could lead to increased exports, easing supply pressures. What to Watch For: Suez Canal Traffic: Any further disruptions or escalations in Houthi maritime warfare could amplify bullish momentum in oil prices. Libya’s Export Trends: Monitor whether Libya increases its crude oil and product exports following the subsidy removal. In summary, the Suez Canal situation supports the bullish signal you've received, as it poses a significant risk to global oil logistics. Libya’s subsidy removal might introduce a balancing effect but seems less likely to fully offset the bullish momentum from Middle East instability. More Tensions in the middle east in 2025 building Under Pressure, Iraq to Cut Gas Flaring. Amidst reports that Donald Trump might sanction Iraq’s imports of Iranian natural gas, Baghdad promised to cut flaring volumes by around 20% next year to meet rising demand, expecting to capture more than 85% of associated natural gas production. Finland Seizes Suspicious Russian Tanker. Finland’s coast guard has boarded and seized the Eagle S tanker carrying Russian oil in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of having caused an outage of an undersea electricity cable connecting Finland and Estonia, investigating potential sabotage. Beijing Issues 2025 Product Export Quotas. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued the first batch of refined product quotas for next year totaling 19 million tonnes, unchanged year-over-year, with recent changes to the country’s 13% export tax rebate making gasoline and diesel exports sub-commercial. The news from Beijing about product export quotas and the export tax rebate has several potential implications for the oil market, particularly refined products like gasoline and diesel, which could indirectly influence crude oil prices. Here's a breakdown: Key Points: Unchanged Export Quotas (19 Million Tonnes): The quota is the same as last year, suggesting that China isn't planning a significant increase or decrease in refined product exports. A stable quota means China's refining capacity and crude oil import needs might not shift drastically in the near term. Export Tax Rebate Adjustment: China's 13% export tax rebate on refined products like gasoline and diesel has been adjusted, making exports less profitable or even "sub-commercial" (not economically viable). This discourages the export of refined products, potentially keeping more supply within China for domestic consumption. Implications for Oil Prices: Domestic Market Focus: If China prioritizes domestic consumption over exports, its domestic demand for crude oil (used to produce refined products) might stay strong. This can be bullish for crude oil prices as China's overall demand remains a key driver. Global Supply Dynamics: Reduced exports of gasoline and diesel from China could tighten global supply of these refined products, potentially driving up their prices. Higher refined product prices could encourage refineries worldwide to increase crude oil processing, boosting crude oil demand. Market Sentiment: The market might interpret this as a sign of strong domestic demand in China, which is generally positive for oil prices. However, if global economic concerns dominate, the muted export quotas might limit the bullish effect. Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices could see short-term bullish momentum due to perceived demand strength and tighter refined product supply globally. Traders might also be cautious, monitoring other factors like global economic data, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical tensions. Conclusion: This news leans slightly bullish for crude oil, as it signals steady domestic demand in China and potentially tighter global supply for refined products. However, how oil prices react depends on broader market sentiment and other macroeconomic factors. Since you've received a bullish signal on oil, the news could support the signal, but always keep an eye on additional developments and technical confirmations in the market.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
Market Analysis: Crude Oil Price Faces HurdlesMarket Analysis: Crude Oil Price Faces Hurdles Crude oil prices are now struggling to clear the $70.00 and $70.50 resistance levels. Important Takeaways for Oil Prices Analysis Today - Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $70.00 support zone. - A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $70.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen. Oil Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $70.50 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $70.00. There was a steady decline below the $69.40 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $69.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested the $68.35 zone. The recent swing low was formed near $68.36, and the price is now correcting losses. There was a minor move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.50 swing high to the $68.36 low. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $70.00 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $70.00. The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.50 swing high to the $68.36 low. The next resistance is near the $70.50 level. The main resistance is near a trend line at $70.90. A clear move above the $70.90 zone could send the price toward $72.00. The next key resistance is near $72.50. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $74.20. Any more gains might send the price toward the $75.00 level. Immediate support is near the $69.40 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $68.85. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $68.35. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $66.00 support zone. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen