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Oilforecast

Long WTI & Short Brent as price differential tightens?Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year. One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which has created more downward price pressure on the WTI market. The US government has injected180 million barrels of crude into the market through scheduled Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases as of October 18, 2022, to help resolve the market supply disruption created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to help cut energy costs. U.S. SPR releases are now complete, and crude oil reserves in the United States are at their lowest point since 1983, according to the latest estimates from EIA. The possibility that the Democrats would suffer a loss in the midterm elections in two weeks might rule out the possibility of more SPR releases being made at a later stage. In this scenario, the forces that pushed the price of WTI below that of Brent would diminish significantly. As a result, the price spread between the two oil benchmarks may return to tighter levels. Going long on WTI and short on Brent is one way to reflect the idea of closing this oil price gap. Throughout 2021, the difference between WTI and Brent was on average about -$2/bbl and ranged from -$4.5/bbl to parity levels. A mean reversion to the period prior to US SPR releases would suggest an increase from current prices of about $6.5/bbl. If, on the other side, the spread widens again and breaks through the -$10/bbl threshold, the strategy will be proven incorrect.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Capitalcom
10
XTIUSD...BUY (3.88%)Entry: 84.900 TP: 88.000 SL: 83.620 Weekly TF: On the weekly TF, XTIUSD needs to bounce back and form a H&S...with Oil moving to $62.5 per barrel. According to my fibo mark; market entry at $89 has been in place...but NB: (market can move to that region for the second time before selling to $70.687 and $63.440 per barrel). Daily TF: There's a possibility that, if a barrel of Oil breaks above $88.010 and ignores the weekly fibo entry at $89, the $97 dollar price per barrel would be achieved and hence a strong sell to $63 per barrel. 4H TF: Expecting a market correction on the triangle formed between 14th and 19th October. During the NY session on 19th October, there was a breakout on the 4H candle. This guides the market sentiment for a buy clause activaion to fill the spots in the triangle's formation. 2H TF: EMA 8 and 50, guides the 2H candle for a perfect entry at $84.930 for a bull run. XTIUSd is currently in the rejection zone after taking some demand around 483 per barrel (Yellow Box), we see a clear rejection at the demand zone as shown above. 1H TF: my execution on XTIUSD
XLong
by DAdepa
USOIL - WTI Crude Oil - 1Y Chart ReviewToday you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1Y linear scale chart for WTI Crude Oil (USOIL). The chart shows the price has been moving in a descending channel with the current year (2022) looking similar to 2008. Using the Fibonacci Retracement tool, I estimated the price reviewing the next 6 years showing similarities to the price from 2008-2014. It's important to keep in mind that MACD possible bullish cross may be coming next year as well as upward momentum in the Stochastic RSI. RSI also has room for growth. Prior to the price moving higher, I believe that the price will come down lower sometime next year before moving higher very quickly. This may fall in line with the "recession" and economic challenges the global economy is facing. As always, this is a prediction with a great deal of possibilities to come as well as my opinions and knowledge included in the chart. Anything is likely at this point! If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
TVC:USOIL
by MillionaireEconomics
Are You Seeing What I'm Seeing?Hey trader, I hope you're having a profitable week ;) The price is currently running in the bearish H&S L2 as well as below the 50 and bearish crossed short-term MA's. Usually when the price is in a patterns L2, it drops (or rallies) for the L3 after closing with a reversal candle pattern or breaking and retesting the levels support/resistant. But for that to happen, the short-term MA's must be crossed in direction of the market maker patterns trend. So in this situation, both the pattern and MA's are supporting a bearish trend. But it may not occur. The price will reject the drop after it has bullish broke and retested the 3rd Monthly Key and 8 MA or the first trades stop loss key level. With that said, enter these trades at your own risk! That's it for today. I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section, I'd love to know your thoughts! Stay Blessed Baby, Sphatrades.
TVC:USOILShort
by Doji-2k1
Crude Oil Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 Crude Oil Weekly Volatility Forecast 17-21 October 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 7.44%, rising from 7.04% of the last week. At the same time, its currently place on the 83th percentile based on the ATR calculations. With this in mind, around this percentile, we can expect an average weekly movement from the open price of the candle of: In case of a Bullish movement : 4.63% In case of a Bearish movement : 5.56% With the current volatility point, we have a 21.5% probability that the end of the weekly candle is going close either above of below the next channel: TOP : 91.61 BOT : 79.56 At the same time, there is currently a 30% probability that we can touch the previous high of the weekly candle 93.66 And there is a 66% probability that we can touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 85.2 Lastly, currently the rating from the moving average is around -40% indicating a bearish trend
NYMEX:CL1!
by exlux
The OPEC Supply Cut Effect will push the price = $110My bias,the market was overall bearish before the change in trends as a result of the double bottom chart pattern at around the .0 Fib level. The latest cut of crude supply to the global market by opec will bring a rise in oil price up to 1500 Pips,ie price from current to $97 and a brief pull back before rising to $10. The would likely play out as sanctions on Russia oil left most market with lesser choice but to compete in purchase with the limited oil supply. Tell your oil producing countries to get ready for this price surge vice versa.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ejike_Odeh
OPEC vs $Oil is generally a very speculative topic. I've burned my hands on it a few times and I shouldn't be surprised if i should do it again. Typically, oil can be very heavily influenced by news, like today. Oil prices were heavily influenced by OPEC statements today, although the dollar regained strength on economic news. But that left the price of oil cold. Apart from fundamental, we still have a chat-technical picture. I would certainly rate this as bearish. Once because: - we are still in a downward trend and - 2. there is still a very attractive gap to close down. In any case, the rising dollar, which should bring the black gold to the bottom of the channel again, speaks fundamentally for this. The added pattern is intended to represent the same purchase ratios. I'm curious how it will continue next week.
TVC:UKOILShort
by Heinisch_2108
How Iran's nuclear deal could crush sure of victory oil bullsOPEC wants to support the oil price by reducing production. At the same time, we hear from Iran that the nuclear agreement talks are progressing, if the talks are a success, in the near future Iran could again export oil to the wider world. Last week we heard from the U.S. side that an agreement with Iran could not be reached. Today Iran has released a U.S. American (accused of spying) and yesterday announced that the talks in regards to the nuclear deal are (well) progressing and they could soon access their sanctioned funds. Coincidences? There aren't. Looks like europe/U.S & Iran are very close to sign an agreement, which might surprise oil bulls. If Iran resumed large scale exports, all OPEC members would come under very heavy pressure. I expect the price to rise until a potential iran nuclear agreement is forged, and if forged, leading to a potential oversupply of oil and an avoid of recession (global/europe) Disclaimer: The information mentioned in my post should be taken with a grain of salt. They are only my personal opinion and do not form facts. They are also not a call or recommendation to open trades, do trades or close positions.
TVC:UKOIL
by Lobotto
1