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The Real Reason U.S. Oil Producers Are Exercising Caution BCO WTI SHORT SHORT TERM MIDTERM LONG Sky-high oil prices have left both America’s oil industry and its President pointing fingers at one another. Biden has repeatedly called on the oil industry to increase production, but the industry has been slow to act, and perhaps for good reason. Historically, the oil industry has ramped up production when prices rose to meaningful levels, but the crashes have provided producers with some key lessons along the way. In the months leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. oil production hit an all-time high of just below 13 million barrels per day (BPD). As the pandemic unfolded, demand collapsed, and production followed. By May 2020, oil production had dropped by more than 3 million BPD to 9.7 million BPD. Since then, demand has recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Oil production, however, has only partially recovered. The most recent data available from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows current U.S. oil production at ~11.6 million BPD — still 1.4 million BPD short of pre-pandemic production. This shortfall is a major factor that led to the run-up of oil and gasoline prices over the past year. When the pandemic crushed oil demand in 2020, some oil companies went out of business. Some small stripper wells — which accounts for a respectable amount of U.S. oil production — were permanently capped given the bleak outlook. Some workers left the oil industry. Now, with oil prices over $100/bbl, many are questioning why production hasn’t bounced all the way back. The Biden Administration has pointed fingers at the oil industry, stating they have stockpiled 9,000 permits they aren’t using. The oil industry says that the problem — in part — is the hostile policies of the Biden Administration. Setting politics aside, here is what we know. The part about the oil industry stockpiling permits — mostly ahead of President Biden taking office — is true. I have reported on this before. However, that doesn’t mean they are sitting on them. Obtaining a permit is just one step in the chain that ultimately results in oil production. There are many other links in that chain, some of which are still problematic today. Further, they can’t just sit on the permits. There is generally a “use it or lose it” provision that requires them to give up a permit if they don’t develop the lease over a specified period. Thus, we have oil production that can’t bounce back quickly because some has been shut in, and new production that can’t proceed as quickly due to manpower and material shortages (e.g., fracking sand). It’s not simply that oil companies are sitting on permits. They are working through them. The number of rigs drilling for oil and gas has risen by 60% over the past year. But it can take years for a permit to translate into oil production (if the location even yields oil). But why did they stockpile so many permits? Stacey Morris, who is Director of Research for midstream index and data provider Alerian elaborated on these issues when I reached out to her for comment: “The President mentioned thousands of permits on federal lands. The permit number is inflated from stockpiling. Companies stockpiled permits on federal lands leading up to the President’s inauguration, because several Democratic candidates, including the president, supported banning new drilling permits on federal lands. Permits do not equate to production. There are a number of steps between securing a permit and actually bringing a well to production, and issues like labor constraints and fracking sand shortages are added obstacles.” That leads me to another issue with the oil companies themselves, where Ms. Morris added: “Investors have demanded that producers maintain capital discipline and grow volumes modestly. Returns have taken priority over growth. Up until recently, a producer planning to significantly grow production volumes would likely have been punished by investors. However, that sentiment may be changing with oil prices where they are and the potential need to replace Russian barrels on the global market. The geopolitical situation and oil price level may give US producers a license to grow volumes more meaningfully. It takes time for producers to respond to prices, though, and the price signal was not strong enough for E&Ps to potentially veer from their plans for moderate growth until recently. Private producers have been able to ramp upstream activity more meaningfully given that they do not have to answer to a public investor base.” Oil companies regularly lose money. In four of the past ten years, the oil industry lost money. Big oil lost $76 billion just two years ago. Therefore, they are proceeding with caution. They are maintaining more capital discipline. They aren’t rushing to do projects with the assumption that oil prices will remain above $100/bbl. They are doing projects with the assumption that in a year or more when the projects might pay off, oil prices will have retreated to well below $100/bbl. On this issue, the Biden Administration is correct. The oil industry is going slow. But this belies a misunderstanding of how long it takes to execute a project. Oil companies don’t have crystal balls. They have to make decisions now based on where they think prices are headed. Because of multiple collapses in oil prices over the past decade, they are proceeding with more caution and capital discipline. These are issues in which there seems to be a great deal of misunderstanding — which leads to finger-pointing — between the Biden Administration and the oil industry. Given the circumstances, as I wrote previously I believe the Biden Administration should convene a summit with the heads of the major oil companies. There should be frank dialogue, and the outcome should be clearly communicated to the world.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
EIA: Oil Prices Will Remain Above $100 For MonthsOil prices will remain higher than $100 per barrel in the coming months, reflecting the geopolitical risk from Russia’s war in Ukraine and the tight energy markets with the current and potential future sanctions against Russia, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. Brent Crude prices are expected to average $105.22 per barrel this year, the EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week, significantly raising its February forecast of $82.87. In its March STEO last week, the EIA said it expects Brent Crude prices to average $117 a barrel in March, $116 for the second quarter of this year, and $102 per barrel in the second half of 2022. WTI Crude, the U.S. benchmark, is set to average $113 a barrel this month and $112 per barrel for the second quarter of 2022. Early on Wednesday, before the EIA inventory report, WTI was up 2% at over $98, and Brent was rising by 1.6% to $101.46. EIA’s oil price forecast, however, “is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty due to various factors, including Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine, government-issued limitations on energy imports from Russia, Russian petroleum production, and global crude oil demand,” the administration said. The current forecast Brent price also increased the forecast for the U.S. retail gasoline price, which the EIA expects to average $4.00/gal this month and continue rising to a forecast high of $4.12/gal in May before gradually falling through the rest of the year. The U.S. regular retail gasoline price is now seen to average $3.79/gal this year and $3.33/gal in 2023. If realized, the average 2022 retail gasoline price would be the highest average price since 2014, after adjusting for inflation, the EIA said. As of March 16, the national average gasoline price was $4.305/gal, according to AAA data. “This war is roiling an already tight global oil market and making it hard to determine if we are near a peak for pump prices, or if they keep grinding higher. It all depends on the direction of oil prices,” Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson, said on Monda y. Saudi Arabia Considers Ditching The Dollar For Chinese Oil Sales The status of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the world is largely based on its importance in energy and commodity markets. According to an exclusive report from the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia and China are now discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports in Yuan. China is aggressively pushing to dethrone the dollar as the global reserve currency, and this latest development suggests the petrodollar is now being threatened. One of the core staples of the past 40 years, and an anchor propping up the dollar's reserve status, was a global financial system based on the petrodollar. This was a world in which oil producers would sell their product to the US (and the rest of the world) for dollars, which they would then recycle the proceeds of in dollar-denominated assets and, while investing in dollar-denominated markets, explicitly prop up the USD as the world reserve currency. All of this would support the standing of the US as the world's undisputed financial superpower. Those days are coming to an end. One day after we reported that the "UK is asking Saudis for more oil even as MBS invites Xi Jinping to Riyadh to strengthen ties", the WSJ is out with a blockbuster report, noting that "Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan," a move that could cripple not only the petrodollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market - something which Zoltan Pozsar predicted in his last note - and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia, but also a move aimed squarely at the heart of the US financial system which has taken advantage of the dollar's reserve status by printing as many dollars as needed to fund government spending for the past decade. According to the report, the talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom. The Saudis are angry over the U.S.’s lack of support for their intervention in the Yemen civil war, and over the Biden administration’s attempt to strike a deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Saudi officials have said they were shocked by the precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last year. China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports, and if priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency, and set the Chinese currency on a path to becoming a global petroyuan reserve currency. As even the WSJ admits, a shift to a (petro)yuan system, "would be a profound shift for Saudi Arabia to price even some of its roughly 6.2 million barrels of day of crude exports in anything other than dollars" as the majority of global oil sales—around 80%—are done in dollars, and the Saudis have traded oil exclusively in dollars since 1974, in a deal with the Nixon administration that included security guarantees for the kingdom. It appears that the Saudis no longer care much about US "security guarantees" and instead are switching their allegiance to China. As a reminder, back in March 2018, China introduced yuan-priced oil contracts as part of its efforts to make its currency tradable across the world, but they haven’t made a dent in the dollar’s dominance of the oil market, largely because the USD remained the currency of choice for oil exporters. But, as Pozsar also noted recently, for China the use of dollars has become a hazard highlighted by U.S. sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program and on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
BCO LONG OIL WTI LONGOil Price forecast for March 2022. In the beginning price at 107.02 Dollars. High price 139.13, low 90.50. The average for the month 107.13. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 91.88, change for March -14.1%. Brent oil price forecast for April 2022. In the beginning price at 91.88 Dollars. High price 91.88, low 84.91. The average for the month 88.72. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 86.20, change for April -6.2%. Oil Price forecast for May 2022. In the beginning price at 86.20 Dollars. High price 92.91, low 86.20. The average for the month 89.21. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 91.54, change for May 6.2%. Brent oil price forecast for June 2022. In the beginning price at 91.54 Dollars. High price 98.68, low 91.54. The average for the month 94.75. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 97.22, change for June 6.2%. Oil Price forecast for July 2022. In the beginning price at 97.22 Dollars. High price 104.80, low 97.22. The average for the month 100.62. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 103.25, change for July 6.2%. Why Oil Crashed Back Below $100 After a torrid three-week rally, energy markets have entered correction mode, with prices moving sharply lower. Over the past week, Brent has slipped 30% from the 7 March intra-day high while European gas prices have declined 65%. Brent for May delivery settled at USD 106.90 per barrel (bbl) on 14 March, a w/w fall of USD 16.31/bbl, and moved below USD 100/bbl in early trading on 15 March. WTI for April delivery fell USD 16.31/bbl w/w to USD 106.90/bbl at settlement on 14 March, while the value of the OPEC basket fell by USD 15.84/bbl to USD 110.67/bl and by EUR 15.40/bbl to EUR 101.16/bbl. You can blame speculative overshoot for the unfolding scenario though the overall outlook remains bullish. According to Standard Chartered commodity analysts, the correction tells us more about market positioning and the effect of extreme volatility than it does about changes in fundamentals over the past week. The increase in volatility across financial and commodity markets has led to a sharp rise in the level of risk held by traders, and an associated incentive to close out some positions to lower the risk. Oil traders have mostly been positioned with a highly bullish bias in terms of both outright positions and spreads in recent weeks, meaning optimization in a higher-risk environment has mostly involved closing out prompt longs. With speculative shorts being very thin on the ground currently, there have been few natural buyers, and the downside has quickly opened up. While the price ranges involved have been rather extreme, recent price dynamics bear all the hallmarks of a textbook speculative overshoot followed by the correction necessary to reset extreme positioning. The irony of the situation is that the dominance among oil traders of the belief that prices could only move higher has led to a position from which market dynamics dictated that in the short term, prices could only go lower. Replacing Russian Oil Despite the positioning-led price fall, StanChart says that the key fundamentals are largely unchanged and are also subject to an unusually high level of uncertainty. According to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered, Russian oil flows to Europe can be replaced in the short term, with the short-term price implications of that displacement potentially capable of being minimized by the extent to which OPEC members increase output beyond their current OPEC+ targets, and also by the possibility of a successful conclusion to talks in Vienna that results in higher volumes of Iranian exports. The analysts have projected that consumer reluctance to buy from Russia coupled with shortages of capital, equipment, and technology will continue to depress Russian output over at least the next three years. Russian output is expected to fall by 1.612 million barrels per day (mb/d) y/y in 2022, and by a further 0.217mb/d in 2023, with the y/y decline peaking at 2.306mb/d in Q2-2022. To avoid significant upside price pressure, StanChart reckons that the market would require around 2mb/d extra supply for the remainder of 2022, and an additional 2mb/d in Q2 to ease the dislocations caused by the displacement of Russian oil. The temporary 2mb/d Q2 boost could come from strategic reserves, but the 2mb/d additional flow for the remainder of 2022 would likely need to come from OPEC sources (including potentially Iran). Market tightness is, however, being helped by the fact that withdrawal from Russian markets has been less dramatic than anticipated. So far, there are indications that some of the larger EU countries are less keen than countries in the east of the EU to pursue the fastest possible reduction in Russian oil flows. Outside of the EU, the UK’s ban on the import of Russian oil has proved less dramatic than the headlines that accompanied the initial announcement, as it does not take effect until the end of 2022. In the private sector, while several companies have given assurances they will buy no more Russian oil on the spot market, there have been very few indications given about if, when, and how they will cut the volume of Russian oil purchased through their term contracts. Meanwhile, statements from some governments and some companies do appear to have become less hawkish over the past week, with an apparent lengthening of the timespan envisaged for the process of reducing dependence. StanChart says that Russian oil trade into Europe appears to be moving further into the shadows of term contracts and a greater reliance on third-party trading intermediaries. That does not make trading with Russia any less distasteful for European public opinion, but it does make the trade less visible and thus likely keeps oil flows from Russia higher than they would have been with more direct government targeting of those flows.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
>100 year oil priceThis is my first time to publish this idea. I have just discovered that if we use the log scale in prices and look back more than 100 years in the oil price, there are bull cycles. The first bull cycle took more than 100 years from 1863 to 1874. This cycle started with the industrial revolution followed by WW1 and WW2 where fossil fuels such as oil was the main source of energy. The second bull cycle was shortened to 25 years from 1874 to 1999. The third bull cycle was shortened again to 20 years from 2000 to 2020. We might have entered the fourth bull cycle and maybe the period will be 15-20 years (from 2022 to 2035-2040). If we superimposed the previous bull cycle and use fibonacci retracement for the fourth bull cycle, oil prcies could go as high as 500 USD/bbl. Inflation rates, production restrictions and sanctions to oil producers will be the trigger for these high oil prices. But I would assume that 2040 and beyond will be the period where renewables will be the main energy sources and nuclear fussion will be feasible for small and large scale. Oil will still exist as an industry but will no longer cater for majority of energy requirements, thus prices will go back to the third bull cycle. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advice. Charts, figures and discussion in in this idea does not warrant accuracy and completeness. Read at your own risk.
TVC:UKOIL
by wellbore
USOIL to $125 this summer, UBS saysOil hits two-week low but UBS is still bullish on Crude. UBS laid out three reasons for its $125 USOIL this summer: 1. Russian oil exports hurt by sanctions, which will further tighten global supplies. 2. Spare capacity brought in by OPEC is less than 2% of global demand. 3. Global oil demand still heading for record highs with Europeans and Americans returning to normal travel patterns once COVID-19 restrictions are lifted. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TVC:USOILLong
by TopgOptions
$ENSV Next Target PT 9.90 and higher...Long term PTs 20-60 Enservco Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides well enhancement and fluid management services to the onshore oil and natural gas industry in the United States. It offers frac water heating, hot oiling, pressure testing, acidizing, bacteria and scale treatment, freshwater and saltwater hauling, fluid disposal, frac tank rental, well site construction, and other general oil field services. The company owns and operates a fleet of approximately 338 specialized trucks, trailers, frac tanks, and other well-site related equipment. It operates in the eastern United States region comprising the southern region of the Marcellus Shale formation and the Utica Shale formation in eastern Ohio; Rocky Mountain region consisting of western Colorado and southern Wyoming, central Wyoming, western North Dakota, and eastern Montana; and the Central United States region, including Eagle Ford Shale and Permian Basin in Texas. Enservco Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Longmont, Colorado.
ELong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
1
ENSV is my SwingI am currently in ENSV for an averaged price of 4.28, small capital because I'm not the best at this stuff. I do believe this stock will run along with the other oil plays. Biden is not going to open America's oil production and these oil stocks are going to go through the roof. HUSA, NINE, IMPP, etc are still all in play too. I'm guessing ENSV with my piss poor ability will run the greatest %. Join me at your own peril. All these stocks maintain the ripster short term cloud.
ELong
by thephysicsguy1
$MARPS Next Target PTs 32-45 and higherMarine Petroleum Trust, together with its subsidiary, Marine Petroleum Corporation, operates as a royalty trust in the United States. As of June 30, 2021, the company had an overriding royalty interest in 55 oil and natural gas leases covering approximately 199,868 gross acres located in the Central and Western areas of the Gulf of Mexico off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Marine Petroleum Trust was incorporated in 1956 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
NASDAQ:MARPSLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
$BRN Next Target PT 7 and higherBarnwell Industries, Inc. acquires, develops, produces, and sells oil and natural gas in Canada. It operates through three segments: Oil and Natural Gas, Land Investment, and Contract Drilling. The company acquires and develops crude and natural gas assets in the province of Alberta; and invests in land interests in Hawaii. It also owns and operates five water well drilling rigs, two pump rigs, and other ancillary drilling and pump equipment; drills water and water monitoring wells of varying depths; installs and repairs water pumping systems; and distributes trillium flow technologies. Barnwell Industries, Inc. was incorporated in 1956 and is headquartered in Honolulu, Hawaii.
AMEX:BRNLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
$CELP Next Target PTs 3.75-6.50-10 and higherCypress Environmental Partners, L.P. provides independent inspection, integrity, and support services in North America. The company operates in three segments: Inspection Services, Pipeline & Process Services (PPS), and Environmental Services. The Inspection Services segment offers inspection and integrity services on various infrastructure assets, including midstream pipelines, gathering systems, and distribution systems. This segment also provides various services, such as nondestructive examination, in-line inspection support, pig tracking, survey, data gathering, and supervision of third-party contractors. The PPS segment offers hydrostatic testing, chemical cleaning, water transfer and recycling, pumping, pigging, flushing, filling, dehydration, caliper runs, in-line inspection tool run support, nitrogen purging, and drying services, as well as test documentation and records retention services. The Environmental Services segment owns and operates 9 water treatment facilities with ten environmental protection agency class II injection wells in the Bakken shale region of the Williston Basin in North Dakota. This segment offers treatment, recovery, separation, and disposal of waste byproducts generated during the lifecycle of an oil and natural gas well to protect the environment and drinking water. The company serves owners and operators of pipelines and other infrastructure, public utility or local distribution, pipeline construction, oil and natural gas exploration and production, and trucking companies, as well as third-party purchasers of residual oil. Cypress Environmental Partners GP, LLC operates as the general partner of the company. The company was formerly known as Cypress Energy Partners, L.P. and changed its name to Cypress Environmental Partners, L.P. in March 2020. Cypress Environmental Partners, L.P. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Cypress Environmental Partners, L.P. is a subsidiary of Cypress Energy Holdings, LLC.
CLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
$VTNR Next Target PTs 14-20 and higherVertex Energy, Inc., an environmental services company, provides a range of services designed to aggregate, process, and recycle industrial and commercial waste systems in the Gulf Coast and Central Midwest regions of the United States. The company operates in three segments: Black Oil, Refining and Marketing, and Recovery. The Black Oil segment collects and purchases used motor oil directly from third-party generators; aggregates used motor oil from a network of local and regional collectors; and sells used motor oil to customers for use as a feedstock or replacement fuel for industrial burners. It also produces and sells a vacuum gas oil product to refineries and marine fuels market; and base oil product to lubricant packagers and distributors. The Refining and Marketing segment gathers hydrocarbon streams in the form of petroleum distillates, transmix, and other chemical products that are purchased from pipeline operators, refineries, chemical processing facilities, and third-party providers; and sells end products, such as gasoline blendstock, pygas, and fuel oil cutter stock to oil companies or to petroleum trading and blending companies. The Recovery segment sells ferrous and non-ferrous recyclable metal products, and markets Group III base oils and other petroleum-based products, as well as provides transportation and marine salvage services. Vertex Energy, Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
VLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
2
$NINE Next Target PTs 10-20-40 and higherNine Energy Service, Inc. operates as an onshore completion services provider that targets unconventional oil and gas resource development across North American basins and internationally. It offers cementing services, which consist of blending high-grade cement and water with various solid and liquid additives to create a cement slurry that is pumped between the casing and the wellbore of the well. The company also provides a portfolio of completion tools, such as liner hangers and accessories, fracture isolation packers, frac sleeves, stage one prep tools, frac plugs, casing flotation tools, specialty open hole float equipment, disk subs, composite cement retainers, and centralizers that provide pinpoint frac sleeve system technologies. In addition, it offers wireline services consisting of plug-and-perf completions, which is a multistage well completion technique for cased-hole wells that consists of deploying perforating guns and isolation tools to a specified depth; and coiled tubing services, which perform wellbore intervention operations utilizing a continuous steel pipe that is transported to the wellsite wound on a large spool in lengths of up to 30,000 feet. Nine Energy Service, Inc. operates 47 wireline pumpdown units and 14 coiled tubing units. The company was formerly known as NSC-Tripoint, Inc. and changed its name to Nine Energy Service, Inc. in October 2011. Nine Energy Service, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
NYSE:NINELong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
1
$USEG Next Target PT 18 and higherU.S. Energy Corp., an independent energy company, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the United States. It holds interests in various oil and gas properties in the Williston Basin in North Dakota, the Permian Basin in New Mexico, the Powder River Basin in Wyoming, and in the Gulf Coast of Texas. As of December 31, 2020, the company had an estimated proved reserves of 1,255,236 barrel of oil equivalent; and 134 gross producing wells. U.S. Energy Corp. was founded in 1966 and is based in Houston, Texas.
NASDAQ:USEGLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
CRUDE OIL (CL) is exploding but how much higher will it goWell most of us have seen or heard about the massive move on crude oil, first taking out that 100$ a barrel level and now hitting highs yesterday of 130.50. Let's take a look at the 3 charts, far left is the weekly time frame and we can see the 100 level being taken out last week and the extreme parabolic move crude oil is on. The middle daily time frame shows the parabolic move again but I also point out the most recent uptrend and how that angle of degree looked in comparison. Important to always look at the degree of the move. A straight up parabolic move is almost always gonna be a short-term move so keep a tight stop level locking in profit is very important. Going by the craziness in the world it is hard to imagine that crude oil does not have more upside here regardless of the parabolic angle. The right 4 hr chart is showing the attempted rally back to test yesterday highs of 130.50. As of right now looking at the charts It does look to test yesterdays highs, it is possible it could hit a wall at 130 and pullback.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Dancharles
$HUSA Next Target PT 20 and higherHouston American Energy Corp., an independent energy company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and condensate. Its oil and gas properties are located primarily in the Texas Permian Basin, the onshore Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast region, and in the South American country of Colombia. As of December 31, 2020, the company owned interests in four gross wells. Houston American Energy Corp. was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Houston, Texas.
AMEX:HUSALong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
6