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Oilforecast

WTI Crude Oil: Bubble burst on the go? Or rocket to space? 25.4Let's be practical. There's 2 ways this can go. (refer back to my 19.4 update about the slip we see in the last few days) 1) Triangle consolidation since the peak of 128 back in March is with a 102.90 resistance level. A breakout above with a daily candle close confirms up-trend breakout and 105, 108, 115 would be immediate possible targets. 2) A breakout below cluster level of supports between 94-96 will be confirmed with a close below 93-94 with a daily candle. This would be high probability bubble burst similar to what we've witnessed back in 2008, 2014 and 2018 with massive $50+ declines. Immediate possible targets would be 88, 84 and 75. Fundamentally speaking, Chinese lockdown as well as India possibly also announcing restrictions soon provides bearish support together with possibility of reserve release from multiple directions (USA, China, SHELL, Aramco, OPEC, etc...). For the bullish fundamentals we have war escalating (already going for 3 month, most probable impact is priced in) and inflation (During 2008 inflation did not help oil keep above 3 figures for more than days). On a personal note - I believe there's higher probability for a breakout down considering above points. I encourage you to do your own research before trading this idea or in general :) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ If you found my idea helpful, please like and follow - It would mean the world to me :D I'm open for any question in private or as a comment , don't hesitate to contact me! My goal is to reach out and help as many traders as I can :) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Exactus
6
$HUSA entry PT 3-3.70 Next Target PT 35 and higherHouston American Energy Corp., an independent energy company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and condensate. Its oil and gas properties are located primarily in the Texas Permian Basin, the onshore Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast region, and in the South American country of Colombia. As of December 31, 2020, the company owned interests in four gross wells. Houston American Energy Corp. was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Houston, Texas.
AMEX:HUSALong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
1
MEDIUM TERM WTI CRUDE OIL ANALYSISHEY ZEYAN HERE Hello, zeyan. I was previously fairly bullish on oil, but as I can see now, oil prices will be settling back to below 100, with 82.50 being the next best probable position. this is an idea a plan in a uncertain chaotic environment out of multiple plans to be certain IF anything happens that changes the fundamentals of this idea, i will update. please note that this is not financial advice. do your own research and use this information as conformational biase on top of your own analysis. like for support!!!!
TVC:USOILShort
by zeyankhan1318
$USEG Next Target PTs 13-18 and higherU.S. Energy Corp., an independent energy company, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the continental United States. It holds interests in various oil and gas properties in the Williston Basin in North Dakota; the Permian Basin in New Mexico; and Texas. As of December 31, 2021, the company had an estimated proved reserves of 1,344,626 barrel of oil equivalent; oil and natural gas leases covered 89,846 gross acres and 5,757 net acres; and 146 gross producing wells. U.S. Energy Corp. was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Houston, Texas.
NASDAQ:USEGLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
1
Long-term oil analysis #oilsome notes: 1_In World War II, because the United States won the war, it said that my dollar should be the reference currency 2_The United States did not fulfill its contract and did not store gold against the dollar 3_European countries realized and wanted to buy gold under the same law for every $ 35 an ounce of gold 4_Meanwhile, Arab countries imposed sanctions on Europe and oil prices rose 5_Now European countries needed dollars to buy oil 6_If oil prices are low, it is very dangerous for the United States because negative inflation in the United States will form and stagnate. Because the United States runs its country with debt, it's the best inflationary position 7- America wants a lot of production so that the industries will stop working and there will be an increase
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by daylichart
$MARPS Next Target PTs 32-45 and higherMarine Petroleum Trust, together with its subsidiary, Marine Petroleum Corporation, operates as a royalty trust in the United States. As of June 30, 2021, the company had an overriding royalty interest in 55 oil and natural gas leases covering approximately 199,868 gross acres located in the Central and Western areas of the Gulf of Mexico off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Marine Petroleum Trust was incorporated in 1956 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
NASDAQ:MARPSLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
1
$HUSA Next Target PTs 16-35 and higher Long term PT 150 and highHouston American Energy Corp., an independent energy company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and condensate. Its oil and gas properties are located primarily in the Texas Permian Basin, the onshore Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast region, and in the South American country of Colombia. As of December 31, 2020, the company owned interests in four gross wells. Houston American Energy Corp. was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Houston, Texas.
AMEX:HUSALong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
$IMPP Next Target PTs 9-18 and higherImperial Petroleum Inc. provides international seaborne transportation services to oil producers, refineries, and commodities traders. It carries refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and jet fuel, as well as edible oils and chemicals; and crude oils. As of March 29, 2022, the company owned four medium range refined petroleum product tankers and one Aframax crude oil tanker with a total capacity of 305,804 deadweight tons. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Athens, Greece.
NASDAQ:IMPPLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
2
Bearish News Is Mounting For Oil18 hours ago,I read:CHINA-Lockdown and I shorted immediately all my positions in crude,brent and WTI.In some I took the losses,other Break even or profits. The fact is :My decision was King.Our Jobs as Traers is to be flexible and adapt as soon as possible to the market circumtances.Sosometimes News catalysts like these help to decide immediately. Although our system tells us the oppositite:THE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THE MARKET PRICE ACTION. And price action are made by the smart money. Sofollowthe money.Be alwaysflexible and have an edge beide your trading system.Such as News catalyst. Oil prices remained fairly stable this week, with ICE Brent balancing slightly above the $100 per barrel mark. Fears of Russian supply disruptions were temporarily put on the back burner by the vast IEA-coordinated inventory release that greatly helped in flattening out the futures curves of all three key crude benchmarks. The extensions of COVID lockdowns in China, especially in Shanghai, have also helped the bearish cause, however it remains to be seen how long will it take for disruption fears to resurface again. IEA to Release 60 Million Barrels of Strategic Stocks. Above and beyond the US’ 180-million-barrel stock draw, IEA countries agreed to release 60 million barrels over the upcoming six months, with Japan taking a prime role amidst the relatively timid commitments of others, pledging to release 15 million barrels. EU to Ban Russian Coal, with Delay. According to media reports, the European Union’s approval of a ban on Russian coal imports would take full effect from mid-August, following internal lobbying from Germany to extend the deadline as far out as possible to allow usual buying in the four-month wind-down period. Chile Sues Mining Giants over Atacama Water Use. The government of Chile is suing mining majors BHP (NYSE:BHP) and Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) over alleged environmental damage caused by their operations in the Atacama desert, draining the area’s aquifer by increased exploitation. US EPA Denies 36 Refinery Biofuel Waivers. The US Environmental Protection Agency declined 36 exemption waivers coming from oil refiners for the 2018 compliance year, confirming a 2020 court decision that significantly narrowed the criteria on who could be eligible for blending exemptions. Canada Approves $12 Billion Bay du Nord Project. The Canadian government approved the $12 billion offshore Bay du Nord project that would be operated by Equinor (NYSE:EQNR), having found no adverse environmental effects, marking the country’s first deep-water project that took years to greenlight. Tight Oil Markets Are Sending Fuel Margins Through The Roof The oil price rally has really cooled down over the past two weeks, with oil prices declining to levels last seen prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Brent oil (CO1:COM) prices fell ~2% Thursday to trade below $100/b, while the price for a barrel of Brent for June 2022 delivery has fallen from $127/b one month ago to $99/b today. Pandemic-related lockdowns in Shanghai, slowing U.S. oil demand growth, and a historic strategic petroleum reserve release have all contributed to the selloff. Interestingly, medium-term prices have hardly budged as near-term oil prices have fallen by over 20%, indicating a still-bullish longer-term outlook. That said, whereas it's crude markets that have been hogging the limelight, the most dramatic action in global oil markets has been happening in a more hidden corner of the market: distillate fuels. The price of diesel and jet fuel in Europe hit a record in early March amid unusually tight supplies. Both commodities have since pared some of their gains, but refiners are still making a killing. Indeed, in another sign of impending distillate fuel shortages, jet fuel traded at ~$320/b in New York on Monday ($7.61/g), a massive ~$200+ premium to crude feedstock prices. The jet fuel premium is currently ~10x larger than any premium seen in the past 30yrs. High Fuel Margins To Last There's a good chance that high fuel prices will ultimately lead to demand destruction. However, Goldman Sachs says distillate fuel demand is likely to remain strong and margins to remain high due to these factors: Diesel and jet fuel stocks are at historic lows, and seasonally-adjusted inventory draws are large and accelerating. Jet fuel consumption is poised to accelerate into summer with a return to international travel. High natural gas prices will lead to "gas-to-oil" switching in Europe and Asia. The Russia / Ukraine war will reduce distillate supply, as Russia exports ~900kb/d of diesel fuel and ~900kb/d of residual feedstocks, which are largely upgraded into diesel by European and Chinese refiners. Refinery operating costs are increasing, particularly in Europe. In fact, Goldman sees current record margins sustaining through at least year end. In the U.S., names like Par Pacific (NYSE:PARR), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO), Marathon Petroleum Corp. (NYSE:MPC )and Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) stand to benefit from higher refining margins while in Europe, Saras (OTCPK:SAAFY) is most exposed. Meanwhile, during its Q1 earnings preview, Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) mentioned improving refining margins, with indicators nearly doubling quarter over quarter. Falling Russian Exports Another reason to be bullish about fuel margins: falling Russian exports. Russia is a key source of distillate fuel for Europe and the world. Shortly after the war began, BP Plc (NYSE:BP) and Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) stopped selling spot diesel in Germany. Last week, Argentina’s YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF) cited diesel "scarcity" in the seaborne market. Jet fuel margins in New York harbor rose to $200/b earlier in the week, a ten-fold increase from historic averages. Attempts to measure the impact of self sanctioning on Russian exports have seen mixed results, with some studies suggesting that exports have largely continued to flow unchanged while others say they could have declined by as much as 3.0mb/d. Thus far, the only measurable impact on exports has come from a terminal outage—a terminal that primarily carries Kazakhstani crude to market. So far, Russia's pivotal energy sector has been largely spared from sanctions. But damning evidence of serious war crimes coming from Ukraine suggests that Russia could very well face more severe sanctions, including a ban on its oil by European nations. Related: Oil Rises As Videos Emerge Of Attack On Saudi Oil Facility Since Russian forces withdrew from northern Ukraine, turning their assault on the south and east, grim images from the town of Bucha near Kyiv, including a mass grave and bound bodies of people shot at close range, have prompted international outrage. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered estimate that a move towards explicit EU sanctions on Russian oil imports would keep Russian output below 8.5mb/d for several years, good for a 3mb/d decline compared to pre-invasion levels, and introduce further downside to already low expectations for Russian oil output. According to StanChart, the EU's most likely immediate measure--i.e., imposing sanctions on coal--will do little to placate member states and public opinion for a significant ratcheting up of the pressure on Russia. Further, EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas would send a strong signal that Russian oil is unlikely to regain its former market in Europe for an extended period, if ever. EU sanctions will also likely increase the pressure on key countries, and particularly India, not to increase their imports from Russia above pre-invasion levels; up to now, part of the pushback from other users of Russian oil has been that they could not be expected to refrain from extra purchases if EU governments were not explicitly limiting their own use. In other words, fuel margins might remain elevated for many months, if not years.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
OIL SHORT BACK TO MAIN TREND IF CLOSE OUTSIDE 50 MOVING AVERAGEHi there, As you see on the chart, OIL has closed below the 50MA on the daily time frame. We need to see a full candle close below 50MA for short. It is still above the 200MA so still a bullish trend up. But we may want to catch the fall back to the main trend. You can see our entry and profit target. Profit target = next support point. Entry Point = Ideally we should wait for a retest and reject from the 50MA to enter for the fall. Indicator: > MACD = showing sell but need more sellers > RSI = below 50, need more strength to the down side We don't want to see OIL close inside the symmetric triangle. kind regards
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingProXY