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Oilforecast

intermediate trend is up but now trading in sidewayI've set up my TradingView chart for Crude Oil (WTI) in the 1-hour timeframe to understand the current market conditions and potential trading opportunities clearly. 1. Price Levels: - Right now, the price of crude oil is around $78.217. - I’ve marked key resistance levels at $80.278 and $79.988. These are the areas where I expect the price might face some selling pressure. - On the downside, support levels are at $77.557 and $77.550, which could act as a floor if the price drops. 2. Trendlines: - I’ve drawn a couple of diagonal trendlines that form a channel, showing the range within which the price has been bouncing around. - These trendlines intersect at several points, which might signal potential breakouts or breakdowns. 3. Volume: - The volume bars at the bottom are crucial. They show how much crude oil is being traded during each hour. - Notice the spikes in volume during significant price moves—these often indicate strong market activity and can hint at future price directions. 4. Candlestick Patterns: - I use candlestick patterns to track price action. Recently, the price has been consolidating around the $78.217 level, which suggests that the market is gathering momentum for a big move. 5. Supply and Demand Zones: - The shaded areas highlight important supply and demand zones. These zones are where there has been significant buying or selling interest in the past. - They help me identify potential reversal points and set my stop-loss and take-profit levels more accurately. 6. Support and Resistance Boxes: - I’ve also drawn boxes around the main support and resistance levels to make them stand out. - The upper box around $80.278 is a strong resistance zone, while the lower box near $77.550 is a key support area. This setup helps me keep track of critical price levels and market behavior, making it easier to plan my trades. I rely heavily on these visual cues and patterns to anticipate where the market might head next.
FX:USOIL
by THE-10
Oil Price Find Footing as Inflation Cools, Russia Threatens CutThe global oil market witnessed a balancing act this week, with prices finding temporary stability despite conflicting forces. While data indicating a possible slowdown in US inflation offered some relief, Russia's vow to cut oil production cast a shadow of potential future price hikes. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the US benchmark, remained above $78 a barrel, clinging to the gains accrued throughout the week. This stability comes after a period of volatility, with oil prices having fluctuated significantly in recent months due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth. The US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at their current level was the primary source of comfort for the market. This decision, coupled with recent signs of cooling inflation, suggests a potential shift in the Fed's monetary policy stance. Earlier concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation had dampened economic activity and raised fears of a recession, potentially leading to a decline in oil demand. The Fed's decision to pause on rate hikes, with the possibility of one cut later in the year, provided a sigh of relief for the oil market. However, this cautious optimism was countered by Russia's announcement of a potential production cut. Russia, a major oil producer, has been a key player in the recent oil price volatility. The ongoing war in Ukraine has disrupted global oil supplies, and Russia has hinted at further reductions in output in retaliation for Western sanctions. This threat of a supply squeeze could push oil prices higher in the coming months, potentially negating the positive sentiment stemming from the Fed's decision. Analysts remain divided on the long-term trajectory of oil prices. Some believe that a global economic slowdown, fueled by rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions, will eventually lead to a decrease in demand. This, coupled with a potential increase in oil production from other major producers like the US, could bring prices down. However, others warn that the geopolitical risks remain significant. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating, and further disruptions to Russian oil exports could trigger another price surge. Additionally, the limited spare production capacity among major producers could make it difficult to compensate for any potential Russian output cuts. The outlook for oil prices in the coming months is thus uncertain. While the Fed's decision and signs of cooling inflation offer some hope for stability, the threat of Russian production cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to pose significant upside risks. Looking beyond the immediate future, the long-term trend for oil prices will likely depend on the pace of the global energy transition. As countries around the world invest in renewable energy sources and push for decarbonization, the demand for oil is expected to decline over time. This could lead to a gradual decrease in oil prices in the long run. However, the transition away from fossil fuels is a complex process, and oil is likely to remain a critical source of energy for many years to come. In conclusion, the global oil market is currently navigating a period of flux. While short-term factors like the Fed's monetary policy and potential Russian production cuts are influencing prices, the long-term trajectory remains uncertain and will depend heavily on the pace of the global energy transition. Consumers and businesses alike should brace for continued volatility in the oil market, with prices likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and economic data releases.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
OPEC+ Lowers Its Sights: Farewell to $100 Oil?The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, appear to be waving goodbye to their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. This strategic shift marks a significant change for the oil cartel, which has traditionally aimed to manipulate production levels to influence global oil prices. A New Reality Sets In For years, OPEC+ has strived to maintain a $100 price tag for a barrel of crude. However, the rise of the American shale industry, a technological marvel that unlocked vast domestic oil reserves in the United States, threw a wrench into their plans. This newfound production glut significantly impacted OPEC+'s ability to control oil prices through production cuts. In a recent meeting, OPEC+ acknowledged this new reality. Instead of clinging to the $100 dream, they announced a gradual increase in production quotas, likely leading to lower oil prices. This decision reflects a pragmatic approach to a market fundamentally changed by US shale production. Pumping Now, Before the Window Closes The decision to increase production can be seen as an opportunistic one. With global economies starting to recover from the pandemic and energy demand rising, OPEC+ sees a chance to capitalize on the current market conditions. By pumping more oil now, they can capture a larger share of the market before the shale boom potentially slows down. However, there are also risks associated with this strategy. Flooding the market with additional crude could lead to a price drop, potentially hurting OPEC+ members' long-term revenue streams. A Difficult Time for Saudi Arabia The shift in strategy comes at a particularly challenging time for Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+. The kingdom faces ambitious spending plans to diversify its economy away from oil dependence. Lower oil prices could significantly hamper these efforts, putting a strain on Saudi Arabia's finances. Uncertainties Remain While the decision to increase production signifies a move away from the $100 target, the long-term implications remain unclear. The exact impact on oil prices will depend on various factors, including the pace of production increases, global economic growth, and the future trajectory of the US shale industry. A Reshaped Oil Market The OPEC+ decision marks a turning point in the global oil market. The era of OPEC+ wielding absolute control over oil prices seems to be over. The rise of US shale has created a new dynamic, forcing OPEC+ to adapt and adjust its strategies. Looking Ahead The oil market's future will likely be characterized by greater competition, with OPEC+ and US shale producers vying for market share. How this competition unfolds and how oil prices react will be a story to watch closely in the coming months and years. Conclusion OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production signifies a strategic shift away from their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. While this move presents potential advantages, it also carries risks, particularly for Saudi Arabia. The future of the oil market remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the landscape has been reshaped, and the era of OPEC+ dominance is fading.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
OPEC+ Extends Production Cuts: A Calculated Volatile MoveThe recent OPEC+ meeting on June 2nd, 2024, resulted in a significant decision to extend production cuts. This move by the oil cartel, which includes major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, aims to navigate a complex economic climate and influence global oil prices. Here's a breakdown of the key takeaways from the meeting: • Extended Cuts of 3.66 Million Bpd Until December 2025: This is the most impactful decision. OPEC+ originally planned to ease these cuts by the end of 2024. However, extending them by a year indicates a commitment to controlling supply and potentially keeping oil prices elevated. • Prolonged Cuts of 2.2 Million Bpd Until September 2024: These deeper cuts, initially set to expire in June 2024, have been extended for an additional three months. This further tightens the supply in the short term. • Phased Out Production Cuts (2.2 Million Bpd) from October 2024 to September 2025: While extending cuts, OPEC+ has acknowledged the need for a gradual return to pre-cut production levels. This measured approach aims to prevent a price shock if all cuts were lifted abruptly. Understanding the reasoning behind these decisions requires looking at the current oil market landscape. Several factors are likely influencing OPEC+'s strategy: • Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disrupt global energy supplies. This disruption, coupled with potential sanctions on Russian oil, has tightened supply and driven prices upwards. OPEC+ may be aiming to maintain a price floor by keeping production cuts in place. • Post-Pandemic Recovery: The global economy is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. While demand for oil is increasing, it hasn't fully reached pre-pandemic levels. OPEC+ might be cautious about increasing supply too quickly, fearing it could outpace demand and lead to a price slump. • Shale Oil Production: The resurgence of shale oil production in the United States is a factor to consider. OPEC+ might be strategically keeping production cuts to maintain its market share and influence over global oil prices. The decision to extend cuts is likely to have a domino effect: • Impact on Oil Prices: Analysts predict that the production cut extensions will likely lead to a continued rise in oil prices. This could benefit oil-producing nations but put a strain on consumers and industries reliant on oil, potentially leading to higher transportation costs and production expenses. • Global Economic Growth: Higher oil prices can dampen economic growth as consumer spending power decreases due to increased energy costs. This is a concern for countries already grappling with inflation. • Shift Towards Renewables: OPEC+'s move to control supply could incentivize a faster transition towards renewable energy sources. Countries looking to lessen their dependence on volatile oil prices might accelerate investments in clean energy alternatives. The future trajectory of the oil market remains uncertain. OPEC+'s decision to extend production cuts is a calculated move to navigate a complex economic climate. While it might benefit oil-producing nations in the short term, it could also have consequences for consumers and the global economic recovery. How this strategy unfolds and how the market reacts will be interesting to watch in the coming months.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
Oil Long Term View: Start of uptrend in Q4 2024, $125+ in 2025Short term potentially in a cup and handle pattern since June 2022, currently in the distribution stage around the bottom. Needs to close above 21M EMA for confirmation. An uptrend can start in Q4 2024, which would get the price to $125+ in 2025. Long term the price seems to be in an uptrend since 2016, if excluding the 2020 outlier. The resistance at 200M EMA seems to have changed into support. Momentum is beginning to increase to the upside, as liquidity and M2 money supply will increase beginning in Q3-Q4 2024.
TVC:UKOILLong
by dumcom
1
USOIL - Short or Buy? Break down or retracement up? Technicals 1. We have been stuck in a range on a higher time frame for quite some time now. 2. On a higher time frame we failed to confirm a break-up from a trendline dating back to March 2022, which was the COVID-19 highs. A failed break-up of this mega trendline is normally a sign of big reversal or retracement. & we did just that ;-) question is, is this a reversal or just a retracement because I see also a trendline from DEC 2023 which we trade just under. IMO we have not fully confirmed that break down. 3. Visible in my chart we see that we are since then on a big down sloping channel which is still respected. Fundamentals 1. My bias is slightly bearish long term because I think the US economy & other major economies will be in a recession which will give downside pressure on the price of OIL 2. Conflict in the Middle East seems to have not a significant impact as of now on the price of USOIL. Will this change? Till I see major escalation happening I don't see that it will have greater impact than it already has. US also is less energy dependent so therefor geopolitical will impact less. 3. Bullish sign is that OPEC is still holding strong on OIL cuts and China is still strong. Summer season will also give some upside pressure because of demand. Trade 1. The first trade, which is a buy option, I will take if I see buyers really taking over to push price up 2. The second trade, which is a sell, I will take if we confirm a break and retest of the weekly low. Great trading all of you Greetingz, Simba Trades
FX:USOILSPOT
by Simba_Trading
Crude oil analysis Crude oil prices are struggling as investors weigh recent hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve despite cooling U.S. consumer inflation data last week. Fed Vice Chairman Michael Barr said on Monday that the Fed is in a good position to keep policy steady and focus on the economy. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she no longer believes three rate cuts in 2024 are appropriate. She stressed that inflation risks are skewed to the upside and given the strength of the economy, there is no harm in taking more time to collect inflation data. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September fell slightly to 60% from 65% on Monday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In Canada, the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX) began commercial operations this month, overcoming years of regulatory delays and construction setbacks. The expansion will transport an additional 590,000 barrels per day from Alberta to Canada's Pacific Coast. Investors are now turning their attention to supply from OPEC and its affiliates (OPEC+). They are scheduled to meet on June 1 to set output policy, which will include a decision on whether to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day by some members.
TVC:USOIL
by RID_WK
1
Crude Oil Tuesday ForecastI Have in Mind that we will be BEARISH bias mostly this week as we have Tapped into the Premium Daily FVG yesterday and rejected lower. My two targets shown in the forecast are the arrows. Daily PDL Weekly SSL Now it is important to realise that the market is moving in London and a straight sell into 0830 or 0930est wouldn't be the best move. Waiting for a retracement and then finding your model to get into the market is what we all strive for and to do couple times a week as intra day traders if the market gives us the opportunity. Lets see how this plays out !!!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Crude Oil Bullish Side Robbery Plan to make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders, This is our master plan to Heist Crude Oil based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart. There is Two Targets Our target is 1 & 2 Danger Logo and Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by Thief_Trader
Crude - Testing the waters...We saw our weekly target hit yesterday, I have a hunch as on the Daily we are constantly going back to the middle of the range that bsl of some form is in the eye of the market before we would want to move down. I ask myself.... Why would we want to go all the way back (weekly ssl level) if we have been here and raided Sell Stops... If I was the market I would want some breakfast first before I head down for lunch and dinner right? So for PRE 0930EST im watching to see if price respects the 4hr FVG's. This will indicate some bsl to be taken.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by IamThattrader
Crude Oil WednesdaySo as per previous forecast for Crude we are bearish bias. We have come to the weekly wick ce again and come CME or NY open I am anticipating a retracement that respects the FVG marked in the chart... Sure sometimes price might 'mowhawk' above like sense says. Be patient and wait for price to make a MSB on at least the 5min before using your entry model to target the INTERNAL SSL as your main objective. If price wants to get outlandish then the WEEKLY SSL'S are the next POI.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader