75: Decline in Oil Tankers to China Signals Weaker DemandThe number of oil tankers heading to China has dropped to its lowest in nearly two years, indicating weaker demand in the world's second-largest economy. Bloomberg reports only 86 supertankers en route over the next three months, the lowest since August 2022.
Current Scenario: After holding $70 on the weekly chart, oil prices are attempting to reach new highs around $90. This movement suggests bullish momentum as the market reacts to shifting demand dynamics.
Bearish Scenario: If oil prices fail to maintain momentum and drop below the recent low, we could see a trend reversal. Key support to watch is around $60, where buyers might step in again.
Bullish Scenario: If oil prices break above $90, we could target $100 as the next major resistance level. Sustained bullish momentum would be necessary for this upward move, potentially driven by improving economic indicators or geopolitical factors.
Oilfundamentals
OPEC+ meeting incomingInitially postponed due to member disagreements, the OPEC+ meeting is now set for Thursday. Discussions are poised to delve into the consideration of deeper oil production cuts. Analysts foresee the potential extension or intensification of supply reductions into the coming year to stabilise oil prices, which currently hover around $80 a barrel. While the possibility of a collective reduction in output exists, specific details remain undisclosed.
The delay stemmed from disagreements over output levels for African producers. However, indications suggest a closer approach to reaching a compromise. The meeting's agenda features discussions by an advisory panel followed by a session with OPEC+ ministers. Notably, members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia previously committed to significant oil output cuts. Current discussions revolve around the continuation of these reductions, including Saudi's voluntary production cut and Russia's export reduction, both set to expire by year-end.
The likelihood of further oil cuts appears imminent, prompting us to refrain from offering a price prediction. However, I foresee a potential market shift—possibly a 1-2% increase if oil cuts are announced or a corresponding decrease in production sees an increase instead. My belief leans towards the former scenario. Nonetheless, any price hike might be short-lived as Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cuts are set to expire by year-end.
Henceforth, it pays to pay attention to this meeting and see what the fine details are.
OILUSDHaving surpassed three instances of touchpoints, the price has diligently followed an ascending trend. Regrettably, on Tuesday, August 15, this course was disrupted as the price concluded below 81.70. Forecasts suggest a continued descent in the trend, with the price anticipated to gravitate towards the range of 77.68 to 77.8 in the subsequent occurrences. This shift marks a departure from the earlier upward trajectory, raising expectations of a sustained downtrend for the time being. Traders and observers are keenly watching the price movement to ascertain the accuracy of this projected decline and its potential implications.
Meanwhile, as the market undergoes these fluctuations, Wagner Corporation's CEO, Mr. Wagner, has embarked on a well-deserved vacation. In a separate realm, Ukraine's situation takes center stage as they appeal for a period of tranquility and conciliation. Amidst these diverse developments, global attention remains divided between financial trends and geopolitical dynamics, underscoring the intricate interplay between economic and political landscapes.
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development Oil was up on Thursday morning in Asia, extending a cautious rally as signs of a tight market emerge. The European clash with Hungary over plans to ban imports from Russia, the world's second-largest crude exporter, also continues. Brent oil futures were up 0.31% to $111.47 by and WTI futures for July delivery rose 0.50% to $110.88. Investors also digested Wednesday’s crude oil supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The data showed a draw of 1.019 million barrels in the week to May 20, 2022. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com predicted a draw of 737,00 million barrels, while a 3.394-million-barrel draw was recorded during the previous week. Crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute released the day before, showed a build of 567,000 barrels.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading middle line of Bollinger band indicator. Right know XTIUSD trading at tight range. As per the 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading above today pivot level 109.50. As per my view, buy on dip is good strategy for XTIUSD, buy range is 109.50 to 109, and there is very strong support zone at 108.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade below 108 and sustain in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to sell with the target of 106 with the stop loss of 109.50.
Ending Diagonal and Double Top patterns Drop to the level of 31$The oil price is directly related to the Canadian dollar level, let's discuss oil in light of the Canadian dollar, which is likely enters to a corrective uptrend.
The uptrend has ended in the range of USD 43.15, and the price has entered to the corrective phase (the downtrend), the first wave of which ended the range of 36.01.
Currently, we are in the C wave from B point, where the price is beautifully forming the patterns of Ending Diagonal and Double Top. Also, divergence is quite visible in MACD and RSI, all these cases indicate a strong downtrend in the direction of C wave and the completion of B / 2 wave, the first target of which is 36.01, and then, according to Fibonacci percentages, it can drop to the range of USD 33 and 31
Please note that the Ending Diagonal pattern is not completed yet, this analysis can be confirmed by crossing the price from a range of 40.17
US Oil LongResuming long position on oil. Setting up a buy limit order @70 with TP @75 and 80 and SL @66. Might add more buy position if there's more fundamentals support and likelihood that oil's gonna shoot up to 80 within the year, aligned with current overall market expectations. Must be careful with impending volatility
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Weekly:
Confidence: B (because of geopolitical risks involved)