Oilfutures
oil, cl, day trading for Jan 29th 2020The action is balanced long and looks to want to move higher as long as red zone bottom holds. down side has some very close targets so a move down could be just a peak below to see if there is any action so watch for buys around these areas if short.
The move above red high has more aggressive targets and looks to me to be where the bigger moves could come.
In the event we move down into Mondays range then I say the long side is done for a bit in a bigger picture.
cl, oil, day trading for Jan 28th 2020Today we have a up move inside a balancing range so will be look at 2 things, 1) a move below the top dashed line for a trade back to bottom dashed line and possibly to the Red zone bottom. If Red bottom break then a move through to 52.
2) is a move above the top of Red zone or a bounce of top dashed line for a run to 55.
3) A consolidation day looking for the longs off bottom and shorts off the top.
Ask me question if you need more info on how to play the different ideas.
cl, oil, day trading for Jan 27th 2020With no doubt oil is bearish and first plan would be to be looking for ways to get short. There are some bounce points that could happen but with this news cycle going to take a bunch of good stuff to cause this bounce. We are getting very over sold so bounce can happen but will need a new narrative to change the over all direction.
oil, cl, day trading for Jan 24th 2020Oil is balancing as it gets ready to tell us what it plans next. not only is this info critical for the day trade ( that is fine just staying in the Red Zone for back and forth action) but also critical for the oil big picture trade also. I targeted oil down to 56 area before big decision time and now we went a little lower. On the chart are lower important big picture supports.
So all this said will trade the balance unless the oil market picks a side by moving out of the Red zone.
oil, cl, day trading for Jan 23rd 2020Well we hit my 56 area and things got interesting. I will be stalking a long term long side trade if it set sup, but now that we are under 56 for today the Red zone is very important and looks like lower we will go. So today will be leaning on any short set up, however a move back above 56 dot 25 I will look for day trad longs back into the high 56's to low 57's
cl, oil, day trading for Jan 21st 2020Oil has moved back down to the pricing level it hang out at most of last week and would balance out well with a move to 57. This also give oil a bigger range to slosh around in between 60 and 57.50.
Will watch red zone for breaks or rejections to give me my days directional leaning or days range to trade.
cl, oil, day trading for Jan 17thThe current action is bullish and to me looks like it wants higher, however what i think is not important. What is important is what happens.
The best thing for me or plan A would be move down that I can gt long and move to the 59.5 target.
Plan B would be a move down back into the prior distribution into the 58 area.
Plan c is shorting tops and long bottoms of the red zone.
Potential Area to Short OilCould be getting some rejection from this Daily Triangle on USOIL. Getting Confluence with Supply/Demand Zone Analysis
And lower timeframe Market Structure
If price can stay below 60.93 our first realistic targets for a short day would be around 59.90 at the bottom of the Supply zone that its currently dropping through.
Oil Prices, Triangle Continuation or Break Below?Oil prices has stalled temporarily as price has bumped into a powerful daily triangle formation. Due to the strength of this triangle in the past, I'm leaning to the short side here for a rebound after a strong bounce. We're currently watching a few levels here
As always, even though we may lean one side or another on a trade(Long/Short), its important to come to the charts with a zero bias mindset. This is why I love the concept of trading with market structure. If you're wrong, you can know you're wrong in a very short amount of time and close the trade for a small loss. The structure gives you a higher percentage of success by only taking entries using key turning points in the market from the past. For the time being, market structure is giving a signal that price wants to go down. However, if price were to come back above 60.19, I'd change my bias and say Oil wants to continue moving up.
Should We Ignore USDCAD Head & Shoulders?Reasons for buying USDCAD:
- Disappointing Canadian employment data last Friday
- Price bounced off both the demand zone and support trend line
- Crude Oil Futures price rejected resistance trend line
Last Friday, Canadian employment posted a huge drop and unemployment increased by 0.2% to 5.7%, both missing estimates by a wide margin. Despite this, the CAD still managed to maintain some strength, supported by the rise in oil prices. But at this point of time, the chart is showing that maybe, the market has not fully priced in the weak data yet.
In the 4-hour USDCAD chart, we can see that the price plunged but bounced off the demand zone and support trend line after the US announced a delay to impose tariffs. Crude Oil Futures price also approached and rejected resistance trend line.
Although the announcement on tariffs is a positive news, tariffs are still set to be imposed and not totally removed. The trade war has been creating a lot of volatility in the market, so we should always keep a lookout for the latest developments and manage risks accordingly. The head and shoulders pattern may form and play out, but I don't trade solely on chart patterns, that is why in this case, I will go long on the USDCAD.
US Oil Retracement (61.01/bbl sept 2019)We should expect to see oil drop. We are approaching almost oversold conditions (RSI), Stochastic is showing the cycle is coming to an end. It's a safe bet we will retrace to the nearest Fib level, which is currently at 61.01/bbl. Time frame: end of September of 2019 into the winter months. This trade is aligning off my prior trade I posted in February for July with 67/bbl price target. Oil companies have to make money this summer, so we should expect to see the price stay relatively the same, and then start cracking to the fib level.
WTI Oil Long set up, starting bullish trend again.OANDA:WTICOUSD has now approached buying zone. The following trend indicator is based in a combination of two bollinger bands with both one and two deviations.
When the price enters the higher-end of the channel, it means the trend has started and its time to buy now. The current political tensions in the middle east should provide some support to the current trend.
Its also worth noting that the MACD indicator is indicating bullishness, since its values are above 0.00 and the price just recovered from some significant losses from the past week
Oil Dead Cat Bounce Looking for Proper RejectionThe recent oil dead cat bounce that started at the $45 support level has been struggling and has shown obvious weakness, but the bullish momentum is still intact. This is known by the sequential green count of TD indicator. We are now on a green 7 candle; two more green counts to complete a TD sell setup. However, there is major resistance ahead in the $60 to $63 zone. I will not discuss why I believe this is a dead cat bounce nor why I believe a bottom hasn't formed. The overhead resistance cluster comprises the following:
Two established horizontal levels at $60 and $63.
The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level when drawn from the $148 high of June 2008.
The moving averages: 30-week around $60 and 50-week around $63.
Price may either get rejected directly by this resistance cluster or get stuck in that zone until it is squeezed between the 30-week and 50-week moving averages into a golden cross, at which point we need to re-evaluate. However, I find it much more probable to be rejected given the weakness of the current dead cat bounce. If it is rejected, then I believe it will re-test the $45 support level.
Check my linked idea on Brent oil futures.
Crude 2019 Channel PlayEver since the beginning of 2019, Crude Oil has been trading in a very consistent upward channel. At the moment, we are currently at the upper bounds of the channel, and crude is due for a drop to the bottom of the channel.
Looking at this channel, as well as historical zones of support and resistance a good entry would be in the range of 60.50-60.80 with a price target of 57-58, depending on how fast/slow it moves. Based on previous price action in this channel, I expect the move to take anywhere from 5 to 14 days to play out fully.
Longer term, at the time of writing this, crude fundamentals seem strong, and I expect it to remain this way. For this reason, I don't foresee the channel to break to the downside, but it is a small possibility. More likely that bulls continue the upward trend after this slight pullback.