CRUDE OIL, Paramount Breakouts + Growing Demand Means Bullish!Hello,
Welcome to this analysis about WTI CRUDE OIL and the monthly timeframe perspectives. Since the Russia-Ukraine-Conflict began we can see many countries upfront with the E.U. sanctioning Russia and preventing Oil exports out of Russia, cutting off all supply chains including oil. These developments mean there is a growing demand for oil and gas on the world market because Russia normally holds 12% of the whole world's oil and gas exports and therefore countries need to move to other sources of oil and gas and as countries, especially in the E.U. have normally almost 40% of their oil and gas imported from Russia there is also a falling supply combined with growing demand on the world market showing the fuel for the steep rising in prices we have seen so far in the recent times. In my chart, you can watch how WTI CRUDE OIL already completed this massive descending-triangle-formation, and now recently with these developments also moved with heavy volatility above the major 10-Year-Resistance marking in my chart. All these developments point to a continuation of the bullish volatility that was established over the recent days, also the main descending-triangle-target-zone marked in my chart has an increased likelihood to be reached with the current dynamics.
In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best!
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Oilfutures
Oil is reaching it's limit.This is Oil futures Weekly chart👆
as you can see, $112 has been a very strong resistance level back in 2010-2014.
Not to mention the strong bearish divergence on BlueWave on the daily and weekly timeframe
Shorting Oil will work out, the hard part is knowing when.
I wouldn't recommend playing short term options, as time doesn't favor options.
CLH H4 | Potential for bullish continuation!Type : Bullish continuation
Resistance : 101.2
Pivot: 91.06
Support : 1904.5
Preferred case: Prices have been on bullish momentum. We see the potential for further bullish consolidation from our Pivot at 91.06 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 101.2 in line with 200% Fibonacci Projection and 200% Fibonacci expansion . Our bullish bias is further supported prices trading above our ichimoku cloud support.
Alternative scenario: If prices were to reverse, they can potentially dip towards our 1st support at 1904.5 which is a graphical overlap support and in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has and will continue to keep oil prices elevated amid overarching supply constraints.
CLH2022 Potential for Bullish continuationTitle : GC1! H4 | Potential for bullish continuation!
Type : Bullish continuation
Resistance : 101.2
Pivot: 91.06
Support : 1904.5
Preferred case: Prices have been on bullish momentum. We see the potential for further bullish consolidation from our Pivot at 91.06 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 101.2 in line with 200% Fibonacci Projection and 200% Fibonacci expansion. Our bullish bias is further supported prices trading above our ichimoku cloud support.
Alternative scenario: If prices were to reverse, they can potentially dip towards our 1st support at 1904.5 which is a graphical overlap support and in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Fundamentals: The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has and will continue to keep oil prices elevated amid overarching supply constraints.
#Oil - Is shorting this market wise?As the oil market continues to rise, there are clear intentions from a number of market analysts to short the Oil market.
Keeping an eye on the current futures expiries for WTI Oil there are strong indications that buyers are easing off, while sellers are coming in strong. While Geopolitical issues could change and of course change the direction of the market, this has not happened.
Let's focus on what we know! there is an overall decrease in the open interest across the market, while the price continues to rise. This is indicating that there is divergence in the interest in this trend, and we should be on high alert that the uptrend is aggressively slowing down.
But, with all this information we still can't change the overall focus that there is a global increase in oil prices and the market has not indicated a turn.
Summary: the current balance area is just below $90, and until we see a new balance area created or a drop below $90 we still need to go with what is obvious.
If you want to talk more about trading/analysing the markets check out our Tradingview profile or send a message via the Tradingview chat feature.
"Trend is your friend UNTIL IT BENDS"
Happy Trading
Ionic Capital - Little Big Movement
Seasonal Futures Market Patterns Crude OilHey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Crude Oil Futures Market. Crude Oil and other energy markets follow an annual reliable seasonal pattern due to supply and demand. Knowing when to find these seasonal market patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
Oil Update and news 17/1/2022Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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Oil prices surged on Monday, with Brent futures reaching their highest level in more than three years, as investors anticipated supply will remain tight due to limited output by major producers and unaffected global demand by the Omicron coronavirus variety.
Brent crude futures rose 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $86.46 a barrel. Earlier in the session, the contract reached a high of $86.71 for the first time since Oct. 3, 2018.
Daily Support & Resistance points for Brent :
support Resistance
1) 86.46 1) 86.83
2) 86.26 2) 87.00
3) 86.09 3) 87.20
West Texas Intermediate crude in the United States was up 58 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $84.40 a barrel after reaching $84.78, the highest since Nov. 10, 2021, earlier in the day.
Daily Support & Resistance points for WTI :
support Resistance
1) 84.31 1) 84.59
2) 84.15 2) 84.71
3) 84.03 3) 84.87
The gains came on the heels of a rally last week in which Brent rose more than 5% and WTI rose more than 6%.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and their allies, known collectively as OPEC+, are progressively lifting output cuts imposed when demand dropped in 2020.
However, many smaller producers are unable to increase output, and others are hesitant of pumping too much oil in case of further COVID-19 difficulties.
Two US officials and two industry sources told Reuters on Friday that the US administration has held talks with numerous multinational energy corporations about contingency plans for exporting natural gas to Europe if Russia-Ukraine violence damages Russian supplies.
Meanwhile, crude oil inventories in the United States declined more than predicted to their lowest level since October 2018, but gasoline inventories increased due to sluggish demand, according to the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
Oil is headed towards 85 levelOil is headed towards 85 level. Many analysts are predicting lower oil demand due to Omnicron variant but the impact is yet to be seen.
We cannot expect the price crash similar to 2020 because there were no vaccines at that time and complete lock downs are very unlikely. Hence, do not wait to see the negative oil prices ;-)
We use Aspen Trading Support & Resistance Levels to risk manage our positions. These levels are invite only and can be accessed through url in my profile information.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for information purpose only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Oil Update for 3/1/2022Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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Oil prices rose on Monday as the market began 2022 on a bullish note, with suppliers in the spotlight ahead of Tuesday's OPEC+ meeting, but rising COVID-19 cases dampening demand optimism.
Brent crude was up 59 cents, or 0.76 %, to $78.37 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate oil futures in the United States rose 63 cents, or 0.84 %, to $75.84 per barrel.
"Tightened Libyan supply ahead of an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+) meeting maintained market sentiments upbeat," said Abhishek Chauhan, head of commodities at Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Libya's official oil company announced on Saturday that owing to maintenance on a critical pipeline connecting the Samah and Dahra fields, the country's oil output would be reduced by 200,000 barrels per day for a week.
Meanwhile, four sources predict that OPEC+ will maintain to its plan of adding 400,000 barrels per day of supply in February.
Oil prices surged about 50% last year, fueled by the global economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic depression and production restraint, even as infections hit all-time highs around the world.
US crude is expected to average $71.38 a barrel in 2022, up from $73.31 in the previous month's consensus.
Oil and natural gas rigs were installed in the United States for the 17th month in a row, as rising prices enticed some drillers back to the wellpad following last year's coronavirus-driven decrease in demand.
As shown in a monthly report released on Thursday by the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil production increased to 11.47 million barrels per day in October, up 6% from the previous month, as output climbed in the Gulf of Mexico as the region recovered from storms.
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
Oil is headed down in 60s rangePrices of oil have a direct impact on the inflation. The higher oil prices have started impacting the consumers across the globe.
We have used Aspen Trading Support & Resistance Levels to analyse the oil prices trend. It has clearly broken down the short-term support levels at 77.75 and most probably could lead to further down side.
As the the oil production ramps up, the oil prices could stabilise at the pre-covid levels in the range of 60s.
Note - Aspen Trading S/R levels are invite only. They can be accessed through my profile information.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for information purpose only and does not constitute any investment advice.
oil we published this idea yesterday and we are gonna hit the TB soon every thing is running very great more than 400 pips in one trade in one day have a look at the idea below Congratulations to all and see you in other successful deals as we have been used to
#OIL SHORT TERM SELL OPPORTUNITYAlright first off price is in bullish Daily trend but it reached 161% of Fibonacci extension ratio and as a result of that we saw a bearish engulfing candle which tells us participants who were long in oil are probably busy with profit taking actions and as a result it is possible that we see a bearish corrective move.
If you are with me so far now lets see how we can trade oil in short time.
In 4H time frame we saw an impulsive bearish move which shifted the 4H time frame structure to bearish for the first time in long time, after that bearish impulsive move we have a bullish corrective move which you can see in 1H time frame. Now price has reached an important res area with RSI indicator divergence and also we can see 1H bearish engulfing candle which shows us price has an intention for down side move also we kind of see that in 1H time frame price also couldn't create HH and we can see a Double top formation which is another confluence for bearish move.
Now in case of trading you can probably wait for the price to come below double top neckline which is around 82.050 and then wait for the retest or you can trade it with your strategy at any given time. But it is important to remember this is a counter trend trading and the overall trend is bullish.
For targeting first target obviously would be around 80.500 and after that its kind of risky to hold the position because as I said its against the main trend.
Wish you all the best
OPEC ReportOPEC's monthly report was released yesterday. Analysts of the cartel lowered the estimate of oil demand growth in 2021 to 5.8 million barrels per day (b/d) compared to 5.96 million b/d in the previous forecast. Thus, global demand in 2021 will average 96.6 million b/d.
"The downward revision is mainly due to lower-than-expected actual data for the first three quarters of this year, despite assumptions about good demand for oil in the last quarter of the year, which will be supported by a seasonal increase in demand for fuel for petrochemicals, heating and a potential transition from natural gas to petroleum products," the report says.
The forecast of demand growth in 2022 is maintained at the level of the previous report's estimate of 4.2 million b/d (100.8 million b/d). The forecast was influenced by expectations of high economic growth rates in the main consumer countries as they gradually emerge from the pandemic. The organization predicts that the demand for oil in 2022 will reach 100.8 million b/d, which will exceed.
OIL Breaking out of the bull flag or another fakeout?Hello and welcome to my post !
OIL is still in a strong uptrend and we are just breaking out from a bullflag.
We are getting strong resistances from EMA100 and MA200.
Something worth mentioning is the purple boxes on the chart, they are indicating previously fake out areas, a think that might happen if the price action dosent break the previously mentioned resistances.
If we continue from here the break of the bull flag strongly the target is 72$.
Indicators: The combination of the overbought SRSI and the mid level RSI suggest a strong momentum for the bulls.
Don't forget to protect yourself with proper Risk Management.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market !
Feel free to ask anything in the comments or send me a message !
Thank you for reading my post,if you liked the idea you can support with a like and a follow have a great day !
The FlipThought of this as I saw the further-out Dec'22 & Jun'22 6-months spread flipping through the closer Jun'22 & Dec'21 ; the historical examples are given in the chart in green circles.
Seems like oil is looking higher from here as per the indication of the attached chart.
Let us see how this unravels.
CL futures. Good level practice 70$2 days since my last idea about Oil.It gave good trade with short stop loss .With risk 20 cent we earn more than 1 dollar.Our level 70 was placed right becouse we can se that price cinfirm this level many times , byers still trying to protect this level.The main now is look where price will close today, if it will close near 70$ its not good sign, becouse all who buy over 70 have stop loss under this price.