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Pound records, trade war and attack on Iranian tankerThe United States and China negotiation on trade war took place last week. In just two days by 500 points, the GBP showed a sharp growth regarding Brexit news. Actually, we have been waiting for this for quite some time and note that this growth is not limited. This week, EU summit on Brexit will be held on Thursday. With the positive outcome, the pound may well get another five hundred growth points in the asset. But let's not get ahead: events are still in the process, and the pound remains very vulnerable to negative news. After all, there are no real facts of the arrangements between Johnson and the Irish Prime Minister exist. So any change in negotiation may radically change market sentiment. Our position on the pound remains unchanged. We were sure that there would be no way out without a deal, and we are sure of it. And this is an occasion for buying the pound, even after such impressive growth. Negotiations between the USA and China. According to the current situation, the United States agreed to suspend another increase in tariffs on Chinese goods which is expected to be realized this week. The parties announced progress in the negotiations but did not work out any final agreement. So actually it is a positive news global economy, but again the situation is very precarious. According to Trump, it may take up to five weeks to prepare a final agreement. He acknowledged that the deal could break, but expressed hope that this would not happen. We will wait for a while with gold purchases, but sales of the USDJPY pair look very promising. We place stops above 108.90, profits 106.8 and below. Moreover, the Middle East is again troubled. At the end of the week, the Oil market strengthened. Recall, we recommended buying it in the area of 52 (WTI brand). The reason for the active trading on Friday was information about a missile attack on Iran’s oil tanker. Iran has already stated that the rocket flew in from Saudi Arabia. Given that before this, the Saudis accused Iran of attacking their oil facilities, the conclusions of Iran seem generally logical. We will remind, earlier Saudi Arabia pretended that the incident has been settled, and they will not aggravate the situation and try to take revenge on Iran. Therefore, this week we will continue to recommend oil purchases. Moreover, the goals that we announced last week for purchases have not been achieved yet. More precisely partially achieved (recall, we predicted $ 55- $ 56). Today is a day off in a number of countries, including the United States. Given the extremely unstable news background, this is fraught with explosions of volatility, so today you need to trade with extreme caution.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Last week outcome and current market statement ISM Manufacturing Index report announced on Tuesday was the main event last week. Recall, the Index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 - 47.8 points (below 50 means decrease inactivity). As a result, the dollar has undergone the most massive one-day sales over the last month. However, the sale did not receive further development. The markets were waiting for the statistics on the NFP (unemployment fell to 3.5%, which is a record low for the past few decades. NFP figures are close enough to the forecasts and market expectations. Nevertheless, the dynamics can be traced more clearly (downward trend). So after Friday’s data to come out, the Fed has untied its hands to reduce rates in October (currently the markets estimate the probability at 76%). We also note that lower wage growth is also another enable signal to lower the interest rate. So, our position as for the dollar has not changed, but rather strengthened. We will continue to look for points for its sales across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. Moreover, the US has not only economic but also political problems. The beginning of the impeachment procedure, regardless of its outcomes, is a negative signal for the US dollar. As for the upcoming week, it will be relatively calm on Wednesday, the markets will look through the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, on Thursday data on the UK economy (GDP, industrial production), as well as inflation in the USA, on Friday, attention will be focused on statistics on the Canadian labour market, as well as consumer sentiment in the USA. Of our other preferences, we note the purchase of gold, as well as the Japanese yen. According to analysts at JPMorgan Chase, the 4th quarter in the last 10 years is the most unfortunate period for the Japanese yen. So do not forget about the stops and control the volume of entry. In the oil market last week, everything was following our forecasts. Goal 51.20 has been achieved. After that, the bears recorded profits on Friday. It is still difficult to say whether this fixation will turn into a full-fledged correction. So we will spend the beginning of the week neutral regarding oil - we will observe how events will develop and we will monitor the news background.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Preparing for Fed verdict, analyzing the state of the oil marketThe attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure led to the biggest jump in global prices. The correction was not observed until the American session started. We recommended on Tuesday to open short positions in oil because we were confident in the corrective movement and the end, the recommendation justified itself at 100%. In just 10 minutes, oil lost over 4%. The reason for the decline was the information that Saudi Arabia has officially confirmed - production capacity will be restored by the end of September. And to compensate for losses in production associated with the attack, the Saudis will increase production up to 12 million bpd by the end of October. So those of our readers who trust our experience and analytics should have made good money. As for trading on the oil market today, then after the strongest fall yesterday, everything looks rather ambiguous. And although we continue to incline toward asset sales you should be careful with that. As for the Fed and the Open Market Committee. An event that was devoid of intrigue just a couple of weeks ago (100% of traders set a minimum rate reduction of 0.25) may surprise. The current probability of a Fed rate cut is slightly above 60%. And if you take into account that yesterday's data on industrial production in the USA were frankly surprising: 0.6% m / m with a forecast of + 0.2% m / m and July outcome -0.1% m / m, the Fed can keep the rate unchanged. Our position remains unchanged. We expect the rate to be lowered by 0.25%. There are enough reasons for this: an interest rate reduction by ECB rate last week, a deterioration of the US labor market and the US economy condition as a whole, threat of a global recession and intensified trade war, multiplied by the risk of a US military campaign in Iran - all of this obliges the Fed to act and reduce the interest rate to prevent the US economy downfall. Anyway, reinsurance is better than solve the consequences duo to the lack of action. Accordingly, our position on the dollar today is also unchanged - we will sell it. At the same time, we do not forget the euro and its movement after the ECB meeting last week. The probability of false movements is great and it is extremely important to follow a predetermined plan. But at the same time, it is worthwhile to put stops so as not to go against the market will. In addition to the decision of the Fed and the subsequent explosion of volatility in the foreign exchange market, it is worth paying attention to inflation data from the UK and Canada. As for the UK. Despite Johnson's unsuccessful meeting in Luxembourg, the pound did not react that much. This means that we will continue to look for an opportunity to buy the British pound. First of all, against the euro and the US dollar. The tactics of buying gold in the area of local lows continue to be justified, so we will continue to adhere to it today.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
USOIL 2 Week ForecastA lot more selling to come. Target of $48 USOIL. Consevative target of $50. It looks like this price target could come very fast. So far USOIL & OILD has moved much faster than I anticipated, which is good. What I thought would take 2 weeks only took 2 days (40% move on OILD). This is why its important to do most of your charting & creating your action-plan on the weekend! I’m gonna be short until USOIL hits $35 OILD. Not investment advice. Merely for educational purposes.
TVC:USOILShort
by Hayekian_Fibonacci