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Phase 3 For OIL PirceThis is the seconded biggest update for oil this month ! You need a big pocket to go with the flow on this one, money management will be your biggest enemy and greed your second. We have 85$ is the mid road for oil and 120$ the highest it can get ! Target Is 68$ for our next idea and politics is our enemy ! i recommend to open a position after an update or after the correction ! (WE can see 90$ before a drop) Don't be greedy or you will swim in red and cry a river of poorness ! This an update to help you see the path only, I don't recommend anything For Low And greedy People (75% Loser - 25% Winner) : SL : 88$ ------------------------- Tp1 : 78$ Tp2 : 77$ Long Term And Big pocket user + Low Risk : SL1 : 88$ SL2 : 112$ ------------------------ TP1 : 75$ TP2 : 64$
FX:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn2830187
3
WTI analysis: Will OPEC+ cuts boost crude to $100?OPEC+ has taken a tough stance, slashing output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) beginning in November 2022, the largest reduction in crude oil production since March 2020. In addition to production extending the agreement through 2023, oil producers have agreed to hold semiannual rather than monthly meetings. WTI oil briefly spiked to $87/bbl following the OPEC+ announcement. It then broke through that level in response to disappointing US crude oil inventory data (-1.36 million barrels vs. 2.05 expected) and a strong US ISM Services PMI, which delayed recessionary warning signs following the weak ISM Manufacturing PMI earlier this week. The move by OPEC+ risks putting renewed pressure on crude oil’s global supply-demand balance in the coming months, potentially resulting in a price floor at pre-OPEC+ meeting levels. On a technical level, WTI crude and (also Brent) prices are currently testing a key resistance area, defined by the 50-day moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the range between September lows and June highs. A sharp break above this resistance zone and then the $90/bbl level (September highs) could put additional upward pressure on an extension towards the 50% of the Fibonacci level ($98.6/bbl) and then $100/bbl. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by Capitalcom
How Iran's nuclear deal could crush sure of victory oil bullsOPEC wants to support the oil price by reducing production. At the same time, we hear from Iran that the nuclear agreement talks are progressing, if the talks are a success, in the near future Iran could again export oil to the wider world. Last week we heard from the U.S. side that an agreement with Iran could not be reached. Today Iran has released a U.S. American (accused of spying) and yesterday announced that the talks in regards to the nuclear deal are (well) progressing and they could soon access their sanctioned funds. Coincidences? There aren't. Looks like europe/U.S & Iran are very close to sign an agreement, which might surprise oil bulls. If Iran resumed large scale exports, all OPEC members would come under very heavy pressure. I expect the price to rise until a potential iran nuclear agreement is forged, and if forged, leading to a potential oversupply of oil and an avoid of recession (global/europe) Disclaimer: The information mentioned in my post should be taken with a grain of salt. They are only my personal opinion and do not form facts. They are also not a call or recommendation to open trades, do trades or close positions.
TVC:UKOIL
by Lobotto
1
Crude Oil since the US Presidential Election vs UkraineJust a commentary about President Biden's Press Secretary saying that the Ukraine situation has caused oil prices to be elevated. The advance from the lockdown/reopening may have been a much more important factor in the current market price. The fear that investments in new oil refining wouldn't generate a return with an administration vehemently against oil has prevented projects from getting funded. Projects have a long time line from start to finish, measured in years. The price had tumbled to generational buy levels in the wake of the Covid Lockdown response and economic stagnation in 2020-2021. So the natural rebound would have taken us back to this level anyway. It's an interesting picture to see how the market moved versus how people are saying the market has moved. IF the price goes back UNDER the Ukraine level of February 24th, then you can rightly assume that a large correction and wipe-out of speculators is underway. The idea of this chart is that NEWS is important to graph so you can see the level where it happened. That NEWS level will be key on any future revisits to that level. It is the foundational idea behind "Key Hidden Levels" where we graph the Earnings Day on our charts to help us define low risk, high reward potential trade setups. Tim 9:52AM EDT May 19, 2022
NYMEX:CL2!
by timwest
6
The Proper Perspective on InflationAs any true trader knows, the inflation rate DID NOT GO UP 8.3%. That is what some retail news outlets claimed "year-over-year," which is plain misinformation. The retail news was designed to trigger a panic dump among the less informed last week. FACT: The rise in inflation started in late 2020, not this year. FACT: The rise in 2021 went to 7%. But the news seldom mentioned it last year. Nope, it was all about vaccines and Covid, etc. The inflation rate went down. It has been trending downward at a sustainable rate. Anyone who thought it would be lower was not paying attention. There is a 3-month decline, and it is due to falling oil prices which were constantly boosted upward during August by the big banks trying to move more investors into buying oil stocks. So, with fluctuating prices of oil between 80 - 92, there was NO WAY inflation would tick down to 8.1%. In August of 2021, inflation had already risen to 5.3%. Now in 2022, it has dropped to 8.3% from the peak of 9.1% in June. So it's 3 points higher than a year ago, obviously not 8.3 points higher. During the pandemic of 2020, the news about the Federal Reserve Board was all lathered up about deflation, that deflation was about to happen, and the world was coming to an end!!!! Sigh. Some people just have to have bad news to feel good, I guess. Oil and the war in Ukraine, which appears to be settling down with the Ukrainians taking back what is rightly their country, has lowered oil prices from $125 to 80-90, fluctuating regularly. Oil needs to drop to 70-80 for inflation to move down more. Slow improvement is how it is going to be. To assume inflation would just drop back to 2% is irrational and illogical. What is an ideal rate? For an expanding economy: around 4-5%. See that red arrow? That should be the goal. It probably is not, but it should be. Inflation lower than that indicates a sluggish economy with a lack of raises for the workforce. When inflation is not in the economy, corporations use buybacks to boost their stock prices, which creates fake rallies.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
The oil market bows to the tactical strategy of the FEDSpeculators and oil giants seized the moment to maximize their oil profits the past months. With a mixture of war fears, supply fears and the increased demand for crude oil after the Corone pandemic and bad supply chains, a broad panic wave had broken out. Let's have a short overview about the current situation: Europe's situation: With India and China importing massive amounts of oil from Russia at very favorable conditions, capacity is freed up on the world market. The new routes have now established themselves, an equilibrium in price and efficiency has now settled in. The same applies to LNG. Global Supply Chains: They are healing, freight costs are falling, although demand for freight containers remains consistently high, as do increased kerosene prices. An equilibrium is more or less reached. Wars and conflicts due to lack of food : The grain agreement for fertilizer and grain exports from Ukraine has improved the situation on the world market and avoided narratives for conflicts in poor countries that might lower down oil exports. Summer session is over : As is known, midsummer is the time when most people in the world travel, especially now after the corona pandemic, many people left by car or plane for the first time since years. The season high is over. The FED is just trying its best to lower the price below a tactical zone so that speculators are technically afraid to long oil markets. This is to mitigate a price-oil spiral. I expect we will see a 75bps interest hike this month as well to push oil prices below the MA trend lines. Oil prices will fall another good 20-40% in the coming months. There is no way the FED will allow it to pop back above 100$ for the next months, otherwise the mild recession might become a deeper one. Disclaimer: The information mentioned in my post should be taken with a grain of salt. They are only my personal opinion and do not form facts. They are also not a call or recommendation to open trades, do trades or close positions.
OShort
by Lobotto
1