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The Proper Perspective on InflationAs any true trader knows, the inflation rate DID NOT GO UP 8.3%. That is what some retail news outlets claimed "year-over-year," which is plain misinformation. The retail news was designed to trigger a panic dump among the less informed last week. FACT: The rise in inflation started in late 2020, not this year. FACT: The rise in 2021 went to 7%. But the news seldom mentioned it last year. Nope, it was all about vaccines and Covid, etc. The inflation rate went down. It has been trending downward at a sustainable rate. Anyone who thought it would be lower was not paying attention. There is a 3-month decline, and it is due to falling oil prices which were constantly boosted upward during August by the big banks trying to move more investors into buying oil stocks. So, with fluctuating prices of oil between 80 - 92, there was NO WAY inflation would tick down to 8.1%. In August of 2021, inflation had already risen to 5.3%. Now in 2022, it has dropped to 8.3% from the peak of 9.1% in June. So it's 3 points higher than a year ago, obviously not 8.3 points higher. During the pandemic of 2020, the news about the Federal Reserve Board was all lathered up about deflation, that deflation was about to happen, and the world was coming to an end!!!! Sigh. Some people just have to have bad news to feel good, I guess. Oil and the war in Ukraine, which appears to be settling down with the Ukrainians taking back what is rightly their country, has lowered oil prices from $125 to 80-90, fluctuating regularly. Oil needs to drop to 70-80 for inflation to move down more. Slow improvement is how it is going to be. To assume inflation would just drop back to 2% is irrational and illogical. What is an ideal rate? For an expanding economy: around 4-5%. See that red arrow? That should be the goal. It probably is not, but it should be. Inflation lower than that indicates a sluggish economy with a lack of raises for the workforce. When inflation is not in the economy, corporations use buybacks to boost their stock prices, which creates fake rallies.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
The oil market bows to the tactical strategy of the FEDSpeculators and oil giants seized the moment to maximize their oil profits the past months. With a mixture of war fears, supply fears and the increased demand for crude oil after the Corone pandemic and bad supply chains, a broad panic wave had broken out. Let's have a short overview about the current situation: Europe's situation: With India and China importing massive amounts of oil from Russia at very favorable conditions, capacity is freed up on the world market. The new routes have now established themselves, an equilibrium in price and efficiency has now settled in. The same applies to LNG. Global Supply Chains: They are healing, freight costs are falling, although demand for freight containers remains consistently high, as do increased kerosene prices. An equilibrium is more or less reached. Wars and conflicts due to lack of food : The grain agreement for fertilizer and grain exports from Ukraine has improved the situation on the world market and avoided narratives for conflicts in poor countries that might lower down oil exports. Summer session is over : As is known, midsummer is the time when most people in the world travel, especially now after the corona pandemic, many people left by car or plane for the first time since years. The season high is over. The FED is just trying its best to lower the price below a tactical zone so that speculators are technically afraid to long oil markets. This is to mitigate a price-oil spiral. I expect we will see a 75bps interest hike this month as well to push oil prices below the MA trend lines. Oil prices will fall another good 20-40% in the coming months. There is no way the FED will allow it to pop back above 100$ for the next months, otherwise the mild recession might become a deeper one. Disclaimer: The information mentioned in my post should be taken with a grain of salt. They are only my personal opinion and do not form facts. They are also not a call or recommendation to open trades, do trades or close positions.
OShort
by Lobotto
1
WTI Crude Oil OPEC+ Token Supply CutOPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day. Emily Ashford (Standard Chartered analyst): “Last month’s adjustment provided a nod to the demands of the consumers, this monthly adjustment is a small nod to the concerns of the producers,” Deepening energy crisis in Europe after Russian energy giant Gazprom PJSC said gas flows along a key pipeline to Germany would not resume. In this economic context my short term price target for WTI Crude Oil is $99. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TVC:USOILLong
by TopgOptions
3
Aramco eyes diversification after record Q2 income Is Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL: 2222) looking to diversify its income sources after soaring oil prices helped it deliver record-high earnings in the second quarter? Saudi Aramco saw its net income nearly double during the three-month period to 173.80 billion Saudi riyals ($46.28 billion) from 90.90 billion riyals. President and CEO Amin Nasser said increasing demand for the company's products made the record-high earnings possible, adding that it also benefitted from favorable market conditions stemming from strong global crude oil prices. But as oil prices begin to cool down, Saudi Aramco has set its sights on improving its technology and generating products from different sources. Reaching New Heights Saudi Aramco formally listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange Dec. 11, 2019. Upon its debut, it became the most valuable listed company with a market capitalization of $1.9 trillion. It was eventually dethroned by Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), but thanks to oil price hikes, it reclaimed the title in May with a market value of $2.43 trillion against Apple's $2.37 trillion. Every movement in the company's price is heavily reliant on oil and energy prices. Saudi Aramco saw major growth when oil prices reach multi-year highs at the beginning of the second half. When war broke out between Russia and Ukraine, oil prices had another boost. Nowadays, industry observers aren't as bullish. Last week, oil prices tumbled amid fears that demand could weaken due to an impending economic slowdown, Reuters reported. Given this trend in oil prices, the company had been on the red, dropping nearly 3% to $39.00 since August 14. Its management does not seem fazed, however, with Nasser saying "we expect oil demand to continue to grow for the rest of the decade, despite downward economic pressures on short-term global forecasts." Off to new goals Nasser, as part of Saudi Aramco's second quarter results, said the company is working to increase production from multiple energy sources, including oil and gas, as well as renewables and blue hydrogen. "We are progressing the largest capital program in our history and our approach is to invest in the reliable energy and petrochemicals that the world needs, while developing lower-carbon solutions that can contribute to the broader energy transition," he added. Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy Industry and Mineral Resources and chairman of the Saudi Aramco's board, said the company will be on the frontline of the country's Vision 2030. He said the company "will become a much more technology and knowledge-driven organization" and that it "will seek to move, change, and expand into areas that will not only make it more agile and responsive, but also lead the industry into a better energy future."
TADAWUL:2222
by BlackBull_Markets
How LOW can Oil Go?Oil Price still in bullish trend even after retracing from HH2 price of Top of approximately 130 to current 90. Sign of bullish trend -Line C having stronger uptrend momentum/strength than line B -Line C surpass above Fib Extension of 1.272 Line B -Candlestick above MA200 -Staying above MA(Price approx 63) will still can consider as bullish trend Some sign of bearish -Candlestick falling below ichimoku cloud(not bearish confirmation yet) -lagging Span fall below Candlestick A closer look on the retracement: test of downtrend strength within line C
TVC:USOILLong
by Inquiring_H