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Slow Monday? Crude OilSo we took some Daily BSL last week on Friday and since we have sold off slowly. NWOG gapped down and this indicates for at least today some sort of Raid or hunt to also touch a PD array thats near to a discount. We have no major news catalyst today and that brings slow PA although it may travel its not ideal for scalpers. ( Lots of back and forth ) Wednesday and Thursday have crucial Crude Oil news events and these will be the optimum days to trade. For Today I am bearish until we reach these targets and or a htf Market structure shift. Be prepared to stay dynamic.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Oil Prices Climb on Inventory DrawdownOil prices edged higher on July 3rd, 2024, buoyed by signs of a significant decline in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil prices, for September settlement rose 0.1% to $86.34 a barrel by 10:21 AM in London. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. oil benchmark for August delivery, inched up to $82.88 a barrel. This price increase comes amidst a wider risk-on sentiment in the global financial markets. Equity markets, including the S&P 500, have been reaching record highs, and this optimism appears to be spilling over into the oil market. Inventory Drawdown: A Cause for Optimism The primary driver behind the oil price increase is a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicating a substantial drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories. According to sources familiar with the data, crude inventories fell by a significant 9.2 million barrels last week. If confirmed by the official figures released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later this week, this would mark the largest single-week decline in stockpiles since January 2024. A decline in stockpiles indicates a tightening of supply, which can lead to higher prices. This is because crude oil is a fungible commodity, meaning a barrel of oil from one source is generally equivalent to a barrel from another. So, if stockpiles decline in the United States, it can impact global supply and drive prices up. Geopolitical Tensions and Summer Driving Season Lend Support Apart from the inventory drawdown, several other factors are contributing to the current oil price rally. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated around the world, particularly in the Middle East. The ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah, along with potential upcoming elections in France and the UK, are keeping investors on edge. Disruptions to oil supplies from these regions could significantly impact prices. Summer is typically a season of increased demand for gasoline due to vacation travel. While the API report also indicated a decline in gasoline stockpiles, concerns linger about weak U.S. gasoline demand, which could temper the current price uptick. Looking Ahead: Factors to Consider The oil market remains susceptible to several factors that could influence prices in the coming weeks and months. Here are some key elements to keep an eye on: • Confirmation of API Inventory Data: Official confirmation from the EIA regarding the inventory drawdown will be crucial. If the data is validated, it will solidify the current bullish sentiment in the market. • Global Economic Growth: The health of the global economy, particularly major oil-consuming countries like China, will significantly impact demand. A strong global economic recovery will likely lead to higher oil demand and consequently, higher prices. • The Upcoming Hurricane Season: The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st, 2024. If major hurricanes disrupt oil production facilities or shipping routes in the Gulf of Mexico, it could lead to price spikes. • Geopolitical Developments: Any escalation of geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East could lead to supply disruptions and price increases. Overall, the recent oil price increase is a result of a confluence of factors, including a potential decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, a risk-on sentiment in the financial markets, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. While some headwinds exist, such as concerns about weak U.S. gasoline demand, the near-term outlook for oil prices appears cautiously optimistic. In conclusion, the oil market is currently in a state of flux. While several factors currently support higher prices, the path forward remains uncertain. Close monitoring of inventory data, global economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and the Atlantic hurricane season will be crucial for understanding how oil prices will behave in the coming months.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Canadian Dollar Struggles Despite Oil SurgeUSDCAD – technical overview Above 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area. R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium S1 1.3615 – 25 June low – Medium S2 1.3586 – 10 May low – Strong USDCAD – fundamental overview The Canadian Dollar wasn't impressed at all with a surge in the price of oil, instead getting hit hard on Monday after Stats Canada said growth faded in May. The market has been pushing more towards a Bank of Canada rate cut and this has been weighing on the Canadian Dollar. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada manufacturing PMIs, a Fed Chair Powell speech, and US JOLTs job openings. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
WTI Crude Oil - 4H Still BullishWTI Crude Oil shows promising bullish momentum as it consolidates above a key static support zone, indicating potential for further gains. The price action demonstrates two major bullish legs, with the current position in the middle of the second major leg, suggesting continued upward movement. Additionally, the presence of a second minor leg forming suggests that the bullish momentum might lead to a breakout, propelling prices to higher targets. Traders should monitor the minor leg’s completion and potential further advances in the price of oil, taking advantage of the bullish trend.
TVC:USOILLong
by Sober_Trading
Brent Crude Surges in June But Chart Pattern Raises ConcernsBrent Crude Surges in June as Inventory Draw Tightens Market, But Chart Pattern Raises Concerns Brent crude oil prices experienced a significant rally in June 2024, rising 5% over the month. This increase adds to a positive trend for the year so far, with Brent crude accumulating a total gain of 12.85% year-to-date. However, a closer look at the price chart reveals a potential concern – the formation of a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a reversal in the upward trend. Understanding Brent Crude and Its Global Influence Brent crude oil, extracted from the North Sea, is a light sweet crude oil variety. Widely traded across the globe, it serves as a benchmark for oil pricing, influencing other crudes like West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark. Supply, demand, geopolitical tensions, and global economic health are all factors that impact Brent crude prices. In June 2024, a confluence of events pushed prices higher. US Inventory Draw Tightens the Market A key driver of the June price increase was a significant decline in US crude oil inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 2.55 million barrels. This decrease signifies that demand for crude oil is outpacing supply, a classic recipe for rising prices. Several factors could explain the inventory decline. Economic growth can lead to increased energy consumption by businesses and consumers, driving up demand for crude oil. Geopolitical tensions can also disrupt oil supplies, further tightening available inventories. OPEC+ Decision Adds Fuel to the Fire Another factor influencing June's price increase was the decision by OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to loosen production cuts. Implemented in April 2020 to support oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, these cuts were gradually lifted as the global economy recovered in 2024. The OPEC+ decision was interpreted as a sign of a tightening oil market. With rising demand and only a gradual increase in production from OPEC+, concerns arose about potential future supply constraints. This concern played a role in pushing Brent crude prices higher in June. The Rising Wedge: A Potential Threat to the Upward Trend? While the June price increase paints a picture of a robust oil market, a technical analysis of the Brent crude price chart reveals a potentially bearish pattern – the rising wedge. This chart formation consists of two upward-sloping trendlines, with prices seemingly trapped within an expanding channel. While the price appears to be rising, the trendlines narrow as the pattern progresses, suggesting a potential loss of momentum. A breakout from the rising wedge, particularly downwards, is often seen as a bearish signal, indicating a potential reversal in the price trend. This could lead to a decline in Brent crude prices in the coming months. The Two-Sided Coin of Rising Oil Prices Higher Brent crude prices have a double-edged impact on the global economy. On the one hand, consumers face the burden of rising gasoline prices, which can strain household budgets and impact businesses reliant on transportation. Additionally, higher oil prices translate to increased costs for transportation and other goods and services. On the other hand, oil-producing countries benefit from the price hike. Increased revenue allows them to invest in infrastructure, social programs, and economic development initiatives. The Road Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities Predicting the future of oil prices is a complex task. Global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production decisions will all play a role. However, the June price increase and the formation of the rising wedge pattern highlight the dynamic nature of the oil market. While the upward trend suggests continued price increases in the near term, the rising wedge pattern warrants caution. Investors and businesses involved in oil-dependent industries should closely monitor the price chart and economic factors to navigate the potential market shift.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
Oil Broader Support Market Optimism, Despite Lingering UncertainOil prices edged higher this week, marking their strongest gain in seven days. This upward momentum came despite a somewhat ambiguous outlook for crude itself, suggesting the driving force behind the rise lies elsewhere: positive sentiment in the broader financial markets. Risk-On Rally Lifts Oil The primary factor behind oil's recent rise is the prevailing "risk-on" sentiment dominating global markets. Equity indices, particularly in the United States, have been scaling new highs, with the S&P 500 reaching its 30th record this year. This optimism seems to be spilling over into the commodities market, including oil. Investors, buoyed by the positive performance in equities, are displaying a greater willingness to take on risk, and oil is seen as a potential beneficiary. OPEC+ Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions Offer Underlying Support Beyond the broader market sentiment, a couple of oil-specific factors are also contributing to the price increase. Firstly, the decision by OPEC+, the world's leading oil producer alliance, to extend production cuts has helped to tighten supply and prop up prices. Anxieties surrounding potential disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East are also lending some support. Mixed Outlook for Crude: Demand Questions Linger However, the outlook for crude remains somewhat clouded by uncertainties. While the supply side appears relatively stable thanks to OPEC+ intervention, demand remains a question mark. Signs of slowing economic growth in some parts of the world, particularly in Asia, raise concerns about future oil consumption. Data from China, a major consumer of oil, recently indicated weaker-than-expected industrial activity, potentially signaling a softening demand outlook. Additionally, rising gasoline prices in some regions, like India, could dampen consumer spending and lead to lower demand for fuel. The Balancing Act: Weighing Optimism Against Uncertainty The current situation presents a complex picture for oil markets. The positive sentiment in broader financial markets is providing a tailwind for oil prices. However, this is counterbalanced by lingering uncertainties about future demand, particularly in Asia. The net effect of these opposing forces will determine the future trajectory of oil prices. Looking Ahead: Navigating a Volatile Market Oil will likely see continued volatility in oil markets. Investors will be closely monitoring key factors like: • Global economic performance: The health of major economies, particularly China, will significantly influence oil demand. • Monetary policy decisions: Actions by central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, could impact risk appetite and indirectly affect oil prices. • Geopolitical developments: Events in major oil-producing regions can disrupt supply and cause price spikes. By carefully weighing these factors, market participants can navigate the current uncertainty and make informed decisions regarding oil investments.
FX:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Oil Price Find Footing as Inflation Cools, Russia Threatens CutThe global oil market witnessed a balancing act this week, with prices finding temporary stability despite conflicting forces. While data indicating a possible slowdown in US inflation offered some relief, Russia's vow to cut oil production cast a shadow of potential future price hikes. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the US benchmark, remained above $78 a barrel, clinging to the gains accrued throughout the week. This stability comes after a period of volatility, with oil prices having fluctuated significantly in recent months due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth. The US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at their current level was the primary source of comfort for the market. This decision, coupled with recent signs of cooling inflation, suggests a potential shift in the Fed's monetary policy stance. Earlier concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation had dampened economic activity and raised fears of a recession, potentially leading to a decline in oil demand. The Fed's decision to pause on rate hikes, with the possibility of one cut later in the year, provided a sigh of relief for the oil market. However, this cautious optimism was countered by Russia's announcement of a potential production cut. Russia, a major oil producer, has been a key player in the recent oil price volatility. The ongoing war in Ukraine has disrupted global oil supplies, and Russia has hinted at further reductions in output in retaliation for Western sanctions. This threat of a supply squeeze could push oil prices higher in the coming months, potentially negating the positive sentiment stemming from the Fed's decision. Analysts remain divided on the long-term trajectory of oil prices. Some believe that a global economic slowdown, fueled by rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions, will eventually lead to a decrease in demand. This, coupled with a potential increase in oil production from other major producers like the US, could bring prices down. However, others warn that the geopolitical risks remain significant. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating, and further disruptions to Russian oil exports could trigger another price surge. Additionally, the limited spare production capacity among major producers could make it difficult to compensate for any potential Russian output cuts. The outlook for oil prices in the coming months is thus uncertain. While the Fed's decision and signs of cooling inflation offer some hope for stability, the threat of Russian production cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to pose significant upside risks. Looking beyond the immediate future, the long-term trend for oil prices will likely depend on the pace of the global energy transition. As countries around the world invest in renewable energy sources and push for decarbonization, the demand for oil is expected to decline over time. This could lead to a gradual decrease in oil prices in the long run. However, the transition away from fossil fuels is a complex process, and oil is likely to remain a critical source of energy for many years to come. In conclusion, the global oil market is currently navigating a period of flux. While short-term factors like the Fed's monetary policy and potential Russian production cuts are influencing prices, the long-term trajectory remains uncertain and will depend heavily on the pace of the global energy transition. Consumers and businesses alike should brace for continued volatility in the oil market, with prices likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and economic data releases.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
The Petrodollar Agreement and the Future of OilThe term "petrodollar" refers to the value of oil bought with U.S. dollars. This concept was founded in 1974 when Saudi Arabia and the United States made an agreement to price Saudi oil exports exclusively in U.S. dollars. This arrangement had significant effects on the global economy and politics. This system increased the global demand for U.S. dollars. Oil-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia committed to selling oil only in dollars, forcing other countries needing oil to acquire U.S. dollars for transactions. This continuous demand strengthened the value of the dollar in global markets. This system also led to the widespread use of the dollar. Since oil is a strategic commodity used worldwide, the need for dollars to buy oil pushed countries to hold large reserves of dollars. This includes central banks and major companies that rely on importing oil to meet their needs. Due to the increased demand and continuous use of the dollar, its value became stable. When there is a high and steady demand for a currency, its price fluctuations decrease, making it a stable and reliable currency for international trade. This stability enhanced the dollar's position as the world's main reserve currency. Why Is the World Watching Now? Recent geopolitical developments and changes in global alliances have sparked discussions about Saudi Arabia's role in the petrodollar system. Major economies like China and the European Union are emerging as key players in global oil markets, and there are serious and successful attempts to price oil in their currencies. The BRICS aims to launch a new global economic system, and the idea of pricing oil in non-dollar currencies has been proposed. This idea is not just a theoretical study but is based on tangible real-world evidence. After the Russian war on Ukraine and the subsequent economic sanctions from the U.S. and the West, Russia announced it would sell its oil in rubles under certain conditions. In March 2023, a deal was made for Russia to sell oil to India, with payment in rubles. In the same month, Saudi Arabia announced its intention to consider exporting part of its oil to China in yuan. The United Arab Emirates took the first step in this field by pricing gas in Chinese yuan. Last year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced the pricing of a shipment of Emirati gas in Chinese currency. The UAE did not immediately announce whether it would continue pricing part of its liquefied gas exports in yuan on the Shanghai Stock Exchange or if it was just testing the global market's reaction to this move. Benefits for the UAE and China For the UAE, the benefits include diversifying revenue sources and reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar. This move strengthens economic ties with China, the world's second-largest economy, opening up more opportunities for cooperation and joint investments. It also represents a strategic step towards achieving greater flexibility in international financial and trade dealings. For China, this move enhances the yuan's position as an international currency, contributing to reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar in global trade. By pricing oil and gas in yuan, China can secure energy supplies with its local currency, reducing currency conversion costs and helping to enhance internal financial stability. Impact on the Dollar A crucial point is the global push towards renewable energy and the potential decrease in oil demand, which can significantly affect the dynamics of the petrodollar system. As the world seeks to shift to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, the importance of oil—and thus the petrodollar—may diminish in the global economy. Additionally, the changing political landscape, including shifts in U.S. foreign policies and Saudi Arabia's strengthening relations with other global powers, may lead to a reevaluation of the petrodollar arrangement. These political shifts might prompt Saudi Arabia and other countries to consider using alternative currencies in oil trade. Vision for Diversification Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates aim to diversify their economies away from oil dependence to achieve long-term economic sustainability and reduce risks associated with global oil price fluctuations. Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" aims to diversify income sources and develop new economic sectors such as tourism, entertainment, industry, technology, and education. This program aims to create new job opportunities, attract foreign investments, and achieve comprehensive and sustainable economic growth. The UAE focuses on developing sectors such as tourism, aviation, trade, finance, technology, real estate, education, and renewable energy. Through this vision, the UAE seeks to strengthen its position as a global hub in various fields, which it has largely succeeded in so far, and reduce its reliance on oil as a main part of its economy. In summary, the world is closely watching Saudi Arabia and its allies because any changes in their approach to oil trade and currency preferences can have widespread effects on global financial markets, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and international economic relations.
TVC:UKOIL
by bbitar
Trading Signal For WTI Crude Trading Setup: There is a Trading Signal to Sell in WTICrude Oil Currency Pair. Traders can open their Sell Trades NOW WTICrude Oil (1h) ⬇️Sell Now or Sell on 78.48 ⭕️SL@ 79.26 🔵TP1@ 76.30 🔵TP2@ 74.31 🔵TP3@ 72.16 What are these signals based on? Classical Technical Analysis Price Action Candlesticks Fibonacci RSI, Moving Average , Ichimoku , Bollinger Bands Risk Warning Trading Forex, CFDs, Crypto, Futures, and Stocks involve a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. If you liked our ideas, please support us with your likes 👍 and comments .
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by pullbacksignal
WTI Oil - 4H Sell OpportunityThe WTI Oil chart shows a compelling setup for a short position. The price has rallied into a significant resistance zone around $79, coinciding with a strong downward trend line that has been respected multiple times. This area acts as a confluence of resistance, providing a high-probability entry for selling. Given the persistent bearish trend, this resistance zone is likely to hold, reinforcing the potential for a downward move. The chart indicates that selling WTI Oil at this juncture offers a good risk-to-reward opportunity, aiming for a decline towards lower support levels as shown by the red arrows.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Sober_Trading
1
Saudi Arabian Oil Co / AramcoMarhaba Saudi Arabia stocks were lower after the close on Sunday, as losses in the Cement, Hotels & Tourism and Energy & Utilities sectors led shares lower. at the close in Saudi Arabia, the Tadawul All Share lost 0.17%.the best performers of the session on the Tadawul All Share were Wafrah for Industry and Development Company SJSC (TADAWUL:2100), which rose 5.74% or 1.75 points to trade at 32.25 at the close. Meanwhile Aramco couldn't break 32.40 now heading to lower level 31.50,as you see we still in down trend, the biggest support level for Aramco is 30$ and I think its one of the good buy zones too Crude oil for March delivery was unchanged 0.00% or 0.00 to $80.11 a barrel. Elsewhere in commodities trading, Brent oil for delivery in March rose 1.74% or 1.46 to hit $85.49 a barrel, while the February Gold Futures contract rose 1.29% or 24.55 to trade at $1,923.35 a troy ounce.
TADAWUL:2222
by moonypto
OPEC+ Lowers Its Sights: Farewell to $100 Oil?The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, appear to be waving goodbye to their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. This strategic shift marks a significant change for the oil cartel, which has traditionally aimed to manipulate production levels to influence global oil prices. A New Reality Sets In For years, OPEC+ has strived to maintain a $100 price tag for a barrel of crude. However, the rise of the American shale industry, a technological marvel that unlocked vast domestic oil reserves in the United States, threw a wrench into their plans. This newfound production glut significantly impacted OPEC+'s ability to control oil prices through production cuts. In a recent meeting, OPEC+ acknowledged this new reality. Instead of clinging to the $100 dream, they announced a gradual increase in production quotas, likely leading to lower oil prices. This decision reflects a pragmatic approach to a market fundamentally changed by US shale production. Pumping Now, Before the Window Closes The decision to increase production can be seen as an opportunistic one. With global economies starting to recover from the pandemic and energy demand rising, OPEC+ sees a chance to capitalize on the current market conditions. By pumping more oil now, they can capture a larger share of the market before the shale boom potentially slows down. However, there are also risks associated with this strategy. Flooding the market with additional crude could lead to a price drop, potentially hurting OPEC+ members' long-term revenue streams. A Difficult Time for Saudi Arabia The shift in strategy comes at a particularly challenging time for Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+. The kingdom faces ambitious spending plans to diversify its economy away from oil dependence. Lower oil prices could significantly hamper these efforts, putting a strain on Saudi Arabia's finances. Uncertainties Remain While the decision to increase production signifies a move away from the $100 target, the long-term implications remain unclear. The exact impact on oil prices will depend on various factors, including the pace of production increases, global economic growth, and the future trajectory of the US shale industry. A Reshaped Oil Market The OPEC+ decision marks a turning point in the global oil market. The era of OPEC+ wielding absolute control over oil prices seems to be over. The rise of US shale has created a new dynamic, forcing OPEC+ to adapt and adjust its strategies. Looking Ahead The oil market's future will likely be characterized by greater competition, with OPEC+ and US shale producers vying for market share. How this competition unfolds and how oil prices react will be a story to watch closely in the coming months and years. Conclusion OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production signifies a strategic shift away from their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. While this move presents potential advantages, it also carries risks, particularly for Saudi Arabia. The future of the oil market remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the landscape has been reshaped, and the era of OPEC+ dominance is fading.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
OPEC+ Extends Production Cuts: A Calculated Volatile MoveThe recent OPEC+ meeting on June 2nd, 2024, resulted in a significant decision to extend production cuts. This move by the oil cartel, which includes major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, aims to navigate a complex economic climate and influence global oil prices. Here's a breakdown of the key takeaways from the meeting: • Extended Cuts of 3.66 Million Bpd Until December 2025: This is the most impactful decision. OPEC+ originally planned to ease these cuts by the end of 2024. However, extending them by a year indicates a commitment to controlling supply and potentially keeping oil prices elevated. • Prolonged Cuts of 2.2 Million Bpd Until September 2024: These deeper cuts, initially set to expire in June 2024, have been extended for an additional three months. This further tightens the supply in the short term. • Phased Out Production Cuts (2.2 Million Bpd) from October 2024 to September 2025: While extending cuts, OPEC+ has acknowledged the need for a gradual return to pre-cut production levels. This measured approach aims to prevent a price shock if all cuts were lifted abruptly. Understanding the reasoning behind these decisions requires looking at the current oil market landscape. Several factors are likely influencing OPEC+'s strategy: • Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disrupt global energy supplies. This disruption, coupled with potential sanctions on Russian oil, has tightened supply and driven prices upwards. OPEC+ may be aiming to maintain a price floor by keeping production cuts in place. • Post-Pandemic Recovery: The global economy is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. While demand for oil is increasing, it hasn't fully reached pre-pandemic levels. OPEC+ might be cautious about increasing supply too quickly, fearing it could outpace demand and lead to a price slump. • Shale Oil Production: The resurgence of shale oil production in the United States is a factor to consider. OPEC+ might be strategically keeping production cuts to maintain its market share and influence over global oil prices. The decision to extend cuts is likely to have a domino effect: • Impact on Oil Prices: Analysts predict that the production cut extensions will likely lead to a continued rise in oil prices. This could benefit oil-producing nations but put a strain on consumers and industries reliant on oil, potentially leading to higher transportation costs and production expenses. • Global Economic Growth: Higher oil prices can dampen economic growth as consumer spending power decreases due to increased energy costs. This is a concern for countries already grappling with inflation. • Shift Towards Renewables: OPEC+'s move to control supply could incentivize a faster transition towards renewable energy sources. Countries looking to lessen their dependence on volatile oil prices might accelerate investments in clean energy alternatives. The future trajectory of the oil market remains uncertain. OPEC+'s decision to extend production cuts is a calculated move to navigate a complex economic climate. While it might benefit oil-producing nations in the short term, it could also have consequences for consumers and the global economic recovery. How this strategy unfolds and how the market reacts will be interesting to watch in the coming months.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
Can Oil soar on June 2 OPEC+ cut hopes? Can Oil soar on June 2 OPEC+ cut hopes? WTI crude futures and Brent continue to recover from three-month lows. The rebound is potentially driven by expectations that OPEC+ will extend its output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of the year during its June 2 meeting. Additional support for crude prices came from the start of the U.S. summer driving season and a weaker dollar. Further data on the demand side will come from upcoming U.S. PCE to gauge the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. A softer-than-expected reading on the PCE could increase the possibility of interest rate cuts, and potentially enhance the demand for energy. Deutsche Bank has maintained its Brent forecast at $83 per barrel for the second quarter and $88 for the second half of the year, assuming OPEC+ will sustain its current production policy on Sunday. Should prices move above the $80 level, WTI could test the 50-day moving average just above $81.1. The RSI suggests there is still room for prices to rise before reaching the overbought zone. Conversely, if prices fall below the $78 range, they might stabilize around the $76 mark.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
USOIL - Short or Buy? Break down or retracement up? Technicals 1. We have been stuck in a range on a higher time frame for quite some time now. 2. On a higher time frame we failed to confirm a break-up from a trendline dating back to March 2022, which was the COVID-19 highs. A failed break-up of this mega trendline is normally a sign of big reversal or retracement. & we did just that ;-) question is, is this a reversal or just a retracement because I see also a trendline from DEC 2023 which we trade just under. IMO we have not fully confirmed that break down. 3. Visible in my chart we see that we are since then on a big down sloping channel which is still respected. Fundamentals 1. My bias is slightly bearish long term because I think the US economy & other major economies will be in a recession which will give downside pressure on the price of OIL 2. Conflict in the Middle East seems to have not a significant impact as of now on the price of USOIL. Will this change? Till I see major escalation happening I don't see that it will have greater impact than it already has. US also is less energy dependent so therefor geopolitical will impact less. 3. Bullish sign is that OPEC is still holding strong on OIL cuts and China is still strong. Summer season will also give some upside pressure because of demand. Trade 1. The first trade, which is a buy option, I will take if I see buyers really taking over to push price up 2. The second trade, which is a sell, I will take if we confirm a break and retest of the weekly low. Great trading all of you Greetingz, Simba Trades
FX:USOILSPOT
by Simba_Trading
Will crude oil continue to rise by 85? Crude oil started to fall from the daily high of 88 in a double top pattern, and now it has successfully broken through the key watershed of 81, and the lowest drop to around 77 has eased the decline. It has not been able to break through the 77 mark recently, indicating that there is a lot of buying support, but the trend is still bearish. As long as it does not break through the 81 mark, it will remain bearish. So today's operation can be short near the rebound of 79, and must be short if it reaches around 80, and long near the bottom of 77. Pressure: 79-80 Support: 77-76
TVC:USOIL
by money-making-machine-
Oil Counter-Trend Longs into Next ShortOil has broken the 15 minute shorts and now are on their way to the All The Way HWB shorts in on the larger 4 hour time frames. You can see how on Friday, the small time frame shorts survived multiple 4 hour candle dives below the 61.8% longs, only to close at or above the 61.8% long. Our 15 minute bias is long and expect it to trade back up to the 82.18-83.42 level, where we sold it in April. Where we can, we will try to be a buyer . . . should have bought those 15 min longs on Friday but it's a hard contract to hold over the weekend. . . .though if there is a direction to hold oil over the weekend, it would be long in the event of a geo-political issue that causes a gap up in oil prices.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CeresTrader
US Crude Oil Benchmark: Implications of Rising InventoriesThe US crude oil benchmark is currently trading around $79.50 on Friday, marking a continued decline from its recent peak of $88.00. This downward trend is attributed to several factors, including rising crude inventories in the United States and diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, despite persistent inflationary pressures, has contributed to market sentiment. The central bank indicated that it will refrain from cutting interest rates until it has greater confidence in the sustained moderation of price increases towards its 2% target. This stance, described as "higher-for-longer," suggests a prolonged period of unchanged rates, potentially leading to reduced demand for oil as economic activity slows. In light of these developments, there is a strategic opportunity to consider buying oil at discounted prices. Two buy limit orders have been placed, anticipating a potential increase in oil prices over the next two months. This expectation is supported by historical patterns and insights from the Cot report, which indicates a decrease short positions of Money Managers. Consequently, there is optimism for a rebound in oil value in the foreseeable future.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDLong
by FOREXN1
4