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Will Laredo Petroleum correct its rally soon?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 83.65. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 83.11 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.226% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 8.355% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 15.97% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 7 trading bars; half occur within 18 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 34 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
LShort
by StockSignaler
Oil:How Hezbollah Is Sparking Instability In Latin AmericaFirst Covid,Now Hizbolla.AGAIN! Geopolitical instability is on the rise in Latin America, and an unlikely player may be partially to blame. Hezbollah, a U.S. designated terrorist organization, has established a strong presence in the region. The organization has turned to illicit activities to bolster its finances. Extreme socioeconomic inequality, weak central governments, organized crime, and the vast profits generated by cocaine have inflamed geopolitical instability in Latin America for decades. That confluence of factors has created a fertile environment for illegal armed groups pursuing ideological goals, the substantial earnings that the narcotics trade generates, or both. This is highlighted by the ongoing violent conflict between drug cartels in Mexico, Colombia’s decades-long low-intensity asymmetric multi-party civil war, and the near-failure of strife-torn Venezuela, a country that boasts the world’s largest oil reserves. That along with weak regional governments and deep-rooted socioeconomic inequality produces an ideal climate for organized crime and terrorist organizations to thrive. One non-government armed group taking advantage of the opportunities present in Latin America is the militant Lebanese Shia political organization and U.S. designated terrorist organization; Hezbollah. The assassination of a prominent Paraguayan organized crime prosecutor in Colombia, who was involved in a series of high-profile investigations into transnational criminal networks operating in South America, sparked fears that organized crime’s power in the region is rising once again. That is fueling further fears of rising regional insecurity and heightened geopolitical risk, thereby impacting foreign investment inflows and economic growth. Even extractive industries are not immune from the fallout, with Colombia’s hydrocarbon sector already under considerable pressure and failing to lift production to pre-pandemic levels. Related: Germany Expects Oil Embargo Decision This Week The tri-border area comprised of Puerto Iguazu Argentina, Ciudad del Este Paraguay and Foz do Iguazu Brazil, has long been fertile ground for organized crime and illegal armed groups. Illicit activities in the region are commonplace with its billion-dollar economy fueled by cocaine smuggling, human trafficking, illegal arms sales, document forgery, and money laundering. The region’s importance as a cocaine trafficking hub has risen with the growing power of Brazilian organized crime groups and increased Bolivian cocaine production, which according to the Whitehouse reached a record of 312 metric tons in 2020. For those reasons, the tri-border region is an ideal location for Hezbollah to scale up its illegal businesses, but it is not the only part of South America where the terrorist organization has established a destabilizing presence. Hezbollah has constructed a well-oiled money laundering and cocaine trafficking network in Latin America. The militant Shia Islamist political group has been progressively scaling-up illicit operations, notably drug smuggling and money laundering. Analysts estimate that narco-trafficking and money laundering operations raise more money for Hezbollah than any other of its businesses, highlighting how important those activities are to the organization. In fact, narcotics seizures and investigations by European police agencies point to Hezbollah being a leading regional drug trafficking organization that is increasingly dependent on criminal enterprises to fund its operations such as terror attacks. Related: Biden Calls Energy Crisis "Incredible Transition" The U.S. designated terrorist group established a notable presence in the tri-border area to take advantage of the highly profitable illicit opportunities which exist in the region and boost earnings. Between 2016 and 2021 the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and Paraguayan authorities progressively dismantled a Hezbollah cocaine trafficking ring operating out of the tri-border area. The Paraguayan prosecutor assassinated in Colombia had previously worked with the DEA on investigations involving Hezbollah. This sparked speculation that not only was his murder an act of a transnational criminal syndicate but that it could be linked to the activities of the Lebanese militant group in South America’s tri-border region. Aside from the U.S., very few countries in Latin America have truly recognized the threat posed by Hezbollah. Official action against the militant Lebanese organization has been slow to materialize despite Hezbollah being engaged in a wide range of illicit activities in the tri-border area. It took Argentina, the first state in Latin America to do so, until July 2019 to designate the militant Lebanese Shia group as a terrorist organization. That was despite Hezbollah, which is used by Teheran as a proxy combatant in its fight against Israel, murdering 85 and injuring hundreds in the 1994 suicide bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. Argentina’s decision was followed by Paraguay in August 2019, then Colombia and Honduras in January 2020. However, the threat posed by Hezbollah in Latin America is not fully recognized by many of the region’s governments, particularly with the Shia militant group having established a sizable footprint in Venezuela. Shia Iran, which has emerged as a key ally of President Nicolas Maduro’s pariah regime, is also the chief backer of Hezbollah an organization that Teheran uses as a proxy in its conflict with Israel and Saudi Arabia. The financial desperation of Maduro’s autocratic regime saw it, especially after the Trump administration ratcheted-up sanctions in 2019, building close ties with illegal armed groups operating in Venezuela. Those groups control vast swaths of the country and generate considerable income from illicit activities including illegal mining, extortion, and cocaine trafficking. They are not only pivotal political backers of the autocratic Maduro regime but key revenue sources for a fiscally beleaguered government. It is for these reasons that Hezbollah emerged as a crucial source of income for Caracas, which in turn allowed the U.S. designated terror group to establish substantial illicit operations in Venezuela. The importance of criminal networks to the survival of the crumbling Maduro regime sees authorities not only turning a blind eye to the activities of illegal armed groups but openly supporting and even involved in them. This has allowed illegal armed groups to flourish in the near-failed state with leftist Colombian guerillas and Venezuelan colectivos establishing large-scale operations, notably in those areas with little to no state presence. Hezbollah, because of its close ties with the Maduro regime, has become a major player in illicit activities in Venezuela. One of the terror group’s most prominent supporters is Venezuela’s Minister of Petroleum, Tareck Zaidan El Aissami Maddah, who is of Iraqi Lebanese descent. He, according to Washington, is one of Hezbollah’s main benefactors with his largesse allegedly including providing over 10,000 Venezuelan passports to members of the militant group as well as citizens of Syria, Iran, and Lebanon. It is also alleged by the DEA and U.S. Department of Justice that he is a pivotal figure involved in cocaine trafficking in Venezuela. Those events made Maduro’s Venezuela, like the tri-border area, a transnational hub for illicit activities, notably illegal mining, arms smuggling, money laundering and cocaine trafficking. While Hezbollah has established a solid footprint in Venezuela, seeing it emerge as a credible threat to security and political stability in northern South America, the terror group is also bolstering its presence in neighboring Colombia. The reason for this is quite simple; Colombia is the world’s largest producer of cocaine. According to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime Colombia’s estimated 2020 cocaine production grew by 8% year over year to a record 1.2 million metric tons or nearly four times that of Bolivia. Colombian illegal armed groups operating in the strife-torn Andean country and neighboring oil-rich Venezuela are the principal sources of cocaine for Hezbollah’s narcotics-trafficking operations. Colombia’s significant increase in cocaine production is responsible for a sharp uptick in violence in recent years, notably in those regions, like Catatumbo on the Venezuelan border, where coca is the primary cash crop. That has occurred despite Colombia’s government implementing a peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC – Spanish initials), the largest illegal armed group in the country’s decades-long civil war, in 2016. After the FARC demobilized the last remaining leftist guerillas the National Liberation Army (ELN – Spanish initials) moved to fill the void it left in many regions and take control of lucrative coca cropping territory and smuggling routes. That intensified conflict with Colombia’s largest organized crime organization the Gulf Clan as well as smaller dissident FARC groups, who refused to accept the 2016 peace agreement, and other illegal armed groups. For decades Hezbollah has focused on infiltrating the Lebanese and Shia Arab communities in Colombia, which are primarily centered around the Caribbean port city of Barranquilla and border city Maicao well-known for smuggling. The city of Maicao in the department of La Guajira has the only mosque in the region known, which is known as La Mezquita the third largest such structure in Latin America. The building was designed by Iranian architect Ali Namazi and is a focal point for the Islamic faith and culture in northern South America. Through its considerable efforts to penetrate Colombia’s Shia community, Hezbollah has gained an influential voice among various Lebanese and Arab familial clans that hold significant commercial and political power in the Andean country. As early as 2004 it was established there was a relationship between FARC and Hezbollah cells for the purposes of cocaine trafficking and money laundering. While the FARC had demobilized by the end of 2017 there were various groups who refused to recognize the agreement, remaining active in their struggle against the state. Those dissidents have expanded significantly over the last two years, recruiting from former combatants and disenfranchised youth, because of President Ivan Duque’s failure to implement the peace deal and Colombia’s worsening economy. That is a key driver of the spike in violence which is impacting Colombia’s hydrocarbon sector with crude oil and natural gas production yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels. The growing scope and scale of Hezbollah’s operations in South America, notably in Venezuela and now Colombia, has the potential to act as a major destabilizing force within the region. Lawlessness, violence, and chronic socioeconomic inequality have long weighed on economic development in the region. Hezbollah’s growing regional influence bolsters Iran’s presence in Latin America allowing it to challenge regional U.S. hegemony, adding an additional destabilizing force to an already volatile part of the world. Until the power of Hezbollah and other illegal armed groups is curbed and eradicated, considerable uncertainty and risk will continue to weigh on Latin America’s economic development, foreign investment, and the region’s economically crucial oil industry.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
U.S. WTI OIL bullish setupIn 3 Daily timeframe, Oil it's look bullish and I add another long position to make a swing trading in this commodity. The trade info it's in this display as I show you. I see that Oil could to reach $145 USD/barrel in my perspective and we could to find up good benefit in this trade. Meanwhile, in weekly timeframe, we see that Oil it's look bullish in this side and it's leading in my own opinion toward $145 USD. I share this fibonacci analyze and I see that the price hold in the 0.382% Fibonacci support and we have 3 targets to note in this Fibonacci extension. But I consider that $145 USD it's a good point what Oil could to hit. I hope that this analysis support you!!! I'm in long swing trade in Oil But more later, i will update my day trade to show my perspective, but I suggested that if you trade by Day Trading, change your target to $126 USD. because we see a bull run in this commodity.
TVC:USOILLong
by harisonhbn9718
Oil Price and financial crashes This chart shows the correlation between the oil price and the different financial crashes. During the melt up to a financial crash does the price of sky rocket and during the aftermath does the price crash. The oil price of today only matches the oil price of the Russian energy crisis and the Great Recession. Seen in this chart is a slight pull back onto further continuation upwards as the war in Ukraine continues does the oil price continue upwards. The supply chain crisis causes economies into a recession and this is also a reason to believe an increase in oil prices as oil is a stability.
TVC:USOILLong
by vf_investment
Oil Potential bearish continuation | 5th May 2022On the H4, with price expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 108.17 where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and swing high resistance is to our 1st support at 102.90 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance where the horizontal pullback resistance is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by FXCM
1
🛢️ CRUDE OIL - New Rally Inbound? 💀Oil could be up for a new rally. Recession worries might cause questions for demand but inflation combined with War seem heavier and most likely to push the price higher again this year. In any case, we follow the chart: Support worked nicely the same way that resistance was calculated perfectly (check our previous ideas below). The price has exited the wedge and checked it as support.. We are Bullish here, again. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
TVC:USOILLong
by FX_Professor
1