Oil/USD Main trend (part). Channel. Fractal.Oil/USD Main trend (part) Rising channel. Realization of a fractal after a breakout of the downtrend (red), channel resistance. In the near future with a high probability if escalation of conflicts in the world will increase, there will be a slight consolidation, and then the price may continue to grow up to the upper limits of the uptrend channel.
Oil/USD Main trend. 1862 -2022 Line graph. Channel. Fractal.
Cataclysms or wars could stimulate such price increases. Possibly on a large scale. Particularly in those territories of the earth where this same oil is produced. Which gives disruptions in production and transportation, these circumstances stimulate the price increase. Expensive oil means the collapse of most countries' economies and hyperinflation. Rise in prices of absolutely all goods and services. Expensive oil means bad times, as the reason for this are bad actions of people.
It is very likely that when the price reaches the top and as a consequence of the collapse of the economies of oil dependent countries, there will be a widespread rejection of this energy raw material as the main one and a transition to “green technology”. First and foremost, the transition to electric transport everywhere. Which is an even greater environmental problem. The problem is the recycling and disposal of used batteries, as well as the dwindling supply of lithium on our planet. But “green energy” propagandists don't want to see that. The point is to put everyone on electric personal transport, make it unaffordable for most (price) and then switch to public transport. Personal transportation will be rare and a great luxury. This is all long term by 2031.
Locally, at the moment. Events that may now drive the price of oil higher, or at least keep the high price near today's values, after breaking through downtrend resistance (red).
10 03 2022 The U.S. Congress approved a $1.5 trillion budget through the end of fiscal year 2022!!!
Congress appropriates $782 (17) billion for defense, $730 billion are non-defense items. The full document exceeds 2,500 pages. $782 billion for 9 months for “war” is a very substantial amount. It is not difficult to guess that the “war” on foreign territory and by foreign hands.
This budget includes the largest package to date of military, economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine (where military action with Russia is taking place at the moment), which also includes spending to strengthen the “eastern flank” of NATO. $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine
I would add that when hostilities take place in foreign territories, the suppliers of “killing toys” and collateral goods only get richer, as does the market for their companies involved.
New military conflicts will be the occasion for further restrictions on the movement of people and restrictions on their rights and freedoms. The “nuts” will continue to be tightened. Perhaps to an even greater extent than under Corona.
The supply chains for goods and the resources to produce them will continue to collapse, as with the carnival virus. Many high-tech goods will not be available to the majority of the earth's inhabitants and will be relegated to the “dream section”. The ever-increasing price of oil and the constant interruptions in its supply will drive up the price of absolutely everything. Many people will refuse to travel by their own car, it will become trivially expensive, as will the production of goods and their supply. In the acute phases of the process, there will be big problems with food in some regions.
It is probably logical to assume that in 2022, the year of “military exercises” and “hacker pranks” will rise in value:
1) stocks of companies related to military contracts and technology.
2) oil and energy resources.
3) metals, especially gold , silver , rarely land.
