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Oil Analysis: Oil may test above $107/Barrel The crude oil price broke the history in April 2020 and moved back to $00.barrel less than two years ago though the crude oil price is now $92 / barrel. Due to the Corona effect, crude oil prices have been low for a long time, but crude oil prices have been rising steadily since April 2020 due to rising demand. However, there is no doubt that crude oil has risen sharply in recent weeks due to the Russia-Ukraine issue because Russia is the largest energy supplier to Europe. Although Russia is not a member of OPEC, it is one of the world's largest exporters of crude oil. The Middle East crisis also has been responsible for the volatile oil market for years. Crude oil prices have plummeted due to the smuggling of special ISIS oil stealing. The US also has given economic sanctions on Iran. That's why it has forced Iran to sell crude oil at much lower prices to several countries, including China. The international community has deliberately destabilized the oil market. The oil price is much higher now, so it was natural for oil-exporting countries to increase supply, but crude oil prices are not falling due to several geopolitical issues. However, if this geopolitical problem is not resolved in the foreground, the price of crude oil may soon exceed $100 per barrel. Oil price is directly involved in inflation. If the price of crude oil goes up worldwide, the price of every goods and service will go up in the developed world. Commodity prices can create hyperinflation when the purchasing power of the ordinary person goes out. In that case, it is not uncommon for the world to move towards another economic recession. Technical Analysis: The current crude oil price is $92 / barrel. The market has dropped a bit from last week's trendline resistance. And from the current rate, the trendline support price is $85.63 / barrel. If next week the Russia-Ukraine issue declines or does not rise further, there is a possibility of a slight drop in crude oil price correction. But until then, crude oil prices won't drop much. However, if the price of crude oil falls below $85/barrel for some reason, the market will first test $77.50/ barrel. And the next target is 65/62 dollars/barrel. However, Crude prices can only drop if the geopolitical problem resolves or an announcement from OPEC increases oil extraction. Although so far, no such symptoms have been seen. On the other hand, if the Russia-Ukraine problem escalates further, the market will test $97 / barrel again. The next target is $100 / barrel, and the last $107 / barrel is more likely to be tested this year. However, for some reason, it is better to stay in buy mode on crude oil, especially if it is available at $75/73 / barrel. It may be better to stay in buy mode with a few pips stop loss. . Because as the days go by, the global crisis continues to grow, and oil prices have been low for a long time because of Covid-19. Many countries have not been able to import oil. That is why there is so much demand for crude oil right now, and the demand for crude oil will probably continue to increase throughout 2022. You have to remember resistance level should never be a good choice for buying crude oil. When the crude price comes to a support level after correction, it would be better to stay in buy mode from the support level.
TVC:USOIL
by Gold_Trading_Expert
1
The effect on oil prices of Russia's invasion of UkraineRussia's invasion of Ukraine will most likely disrupt crude supplies locally and globally. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil producer. Russia is the main EU supplier of crude oil. To keep it simple, since Russia is invading Ukraine, this will cause major oil supply issues for the EU. If the US and other countries in the Middle East can keep the supply tap open for the EU, then this issue will not be that much of an issue. However, Russia is a major member of OPEC. Russia holds a lot of influence in this organisation. So they could, if they wanted to, pressure other oil suppliers to not supply the EU with oil. This would only be a short-term play. Russia is heavily dependent on oil sales revenue. War is expensive. I do believe the invasion in Russia will most likely be a month max. After that, the war will be finished, but further civil wars and political instability will most likely arise in Ukraine for years to come. This effect will not be big enough, in my opinion, to drive oil prices higher. Henceforth, this oil spike will be a short-term rise. Furthermore, there is a growing concern about the imbalance between supply and demand following the opening and normalisation of the global economy after the Omicron variant subsided. In February, JP Morgan analysts projected that disruptions to oil flow from Russia could push oil prices to $120 per barrel. Oil prices last week, for the first time since 2014, reached $100 per barrel. If Russia is backed into a corner, I highly doubt it, they could curb oil exports to their advantage. Previously, Germany delayed the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Europe. As a result, Russia delayed shipments of natural gas. What stops them from doing it now? If they repeat this action, but for their oil exports, this could further lead to a short-term to medium-term rise in oil prices. The impact of oil prices on the macroeconomy in Russia is also an interesting thing to look at. If the price of oil continues to rise, according to this study (Ito, 2010). Using an unrestricted VAR (vector autoregressive) model, a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to the growth in real GDP by 0.44% in the long run. However, war is expensive, so I doubt the benefits of the increase in oil prices will outweigh the costs of this war. Furthermore, this study reports that there is clear evidence for consistent claims in other literature pieces. Oil price increases are much more important than oil price decreases (Hamilton, 2003). In summary, now that the war has begun, I only see oil prices spiking in the first couple of weeks of the invasion and not really after that. The US and other countries will likely supply the oil needed to sustain the EU. Winter is over, and the weather is getting warmer. Oil demand will most likely decrease. The major play with crude oil futures is right now. If the war is prolonged, as Sun Tzu states, no country has ever profited from a prolonged war - the oil prices may reach 110–120 in the next six months. Especially if the supply issues are not fixed and the outcome of the war is political instability. Technical analysis The Commodity Channel Index is a technical indicator that, as the name suggests, was designed to be used with commodities. If you want to, you can use it for a variety of assets. But I prefer to use it with commodities. It measures the current price level relative to the average price level over a given period. When it passes +/-100, it signals overbought/oversold levels. However, the CCI is an unbound oscillator, which means there are no upside or downside limits. So, interpreting overbought and oversold levels is subjective. Furthermore, there are two problems with this indicator. First, the indicator does not take into account fundamental events. So, a political event or supply shock will be seen as an overbought level. However, because the CCI is an unbound oscillator, it can continue to rise. Second, unlike chart patterns, indicators lag in time. So, the CCI will take time to show a decrease in price on its CCI values. This means you may be seeing an overbought signal, even after the price has decreased and the price increase is over. Regardless, right now I believe the CCI shows a great piece of analysis - that is the CCI cycle represented by the yellow line. Henceforth, I will still be using it for my analysis. The CCI indicator data input is Length 20, Timeframe 1 Month. The pink boxes represent overbought and oversold levels with their corresponding price rectangles on the chart. As you can see from the yellow line, the price approximately follows a cycle. Over the last 16 years, the cycles have been reaching lower lows and lower highs. Currently, the rise from the last pink box is not creating a big enough spike in the overbought level in the CCI indicator, suggesting that the price can continue to rise. The CCI is represented by the yellow line, showing that the oil price is following a cycle. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine is over, you can expect the oil price to fall along with the CCI. However, I expect this to be 6 months after the invasion has concluded. This is an important cycle that the price of oil has followed for the last 16 years. The two orange lines represent all-time highs and lows. The two red lines represent a "box" of resistance and support. As you can see from Oct 2010 to Aug 2014, for almost 4 years, the crude oil price stayed in this region. This region will provide very important support and resistance to the oil price level if it reaches this point. Using Fibonacci levels, we can see the oil price has been following a support and resistance pattern equal to the support and resistance of the Fibonacci levels. Right now, it has broken out of the nearest Fibonacci level that rests around $98. This will provide a level of support to the oil price. Along with that, there is another support level represented by the top blue line. Right now, in the event of stalling behaviour, I see the oil price staying between $97 – $105. The price may poke above or below during this time. However, my confidence level in this support is not too high. The resistance and support levels given by the Fibonacci sequence, the red and blue lines, are strong. But the price range in this region seems too small. So, if the price stays here, it could only be for a couple of weeks to months. Following other price behaviour in the past. Also, as you can see, the price touched $100 and then fell and has stayed there for the last week. The reason for this is that the $100 price level is a great level of resistance. I wouldn't be surprised if many traders used this price level as their take-profits. In summary, the invasion of Ukraine has been going on for nearly a week now. The oil price has shot up, but not to a large degree. I'm guessing the supply chain is holding through and the markets have probably priced in this invasion, hence why the price hasn’t shot up that far as you would expect. If the price stalls, it should stay between $98 to $105. The key support and resistance levels. The price, in my opinion, may poke through the lower level if the war seems to be ending or through the top if the war creates problems for the oil market. I don’t see the price going above the bottom red line. Only if there are major supply issues with oil or geopolitical events related to oil. If the price does break the bottom line of resistance, then the price should only be there for a short time and eventually return down. Unless, of course, the geopolitical/supply issue persists, in which case the price is likely to remain above the bottom red line. After that, I expect to see the price of oil decrease and continue in its CCI (yellow line) cycle.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
WTI BULL March (initially Bear or sideways)26/02/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 = NO CLEAR CALL COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (with an initial bearish start) DAYS WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = NO CLEAR CALL POSSIBLE This week was fairly neutral, until Thursday when a significant shooting star formed. The volume towered over all previous volumes, very nervous investors due to war. Friday's volume smaller, candle formed a spinning top. Next week has a good probability of being indecisive. OBV is very bullish. WEEK WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR NEXT WEEK = BEAR or Sideways Large shooting star, a bull with exceptional volume. Previous weeks had tails rejecting move to the south. Overall week trend looks to be stalling. OBV is trending north, with this, it may indicate a stronger momentum at play. Based purely on the price action path of least resistance says a few more bear candles are to come. No call for a reversal at this point. MONTH FORECAST MONTH = BULL Sizable bull candle body with 1.2 times tail to the north. Clear of the previous resistance level this chart is now bull led by their influence. OBV now trends BULL another confirmation of a BULL dominated influence. The chart looks to have commenced a BULL rally. ============================= FEB WAS BULL = ACCURATE JANUARY FORECAST FOR FEB 2022 = BULL
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by eatmycrispypotato
USDOIL Crude Oil top | Retracement level targetCan i call the $92 level the 2022 top for Crude oil??? We might see a retracement in USOIL after Russia reported pullback of military troops. Some military units will start returning to their permanent bases after completing drills near the Ukrainian border, said the Russian Defense Ministry. Extending the Fibonacci retracement tool, my price target for crude oil this year is the $79 support. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TVC:USOILShort
by TopgOptions
OILhello dear treaders any news from oil ? ok.. let me read the chart oil. first of all lets take look at the oil chart We see that oil is rising sharply Now at what price can this price increase continue? No one knows But the traces of investors can be understood from the chart. Of course, one of the factors that has oil rising in this way is the tension between Russia and Ukraine. In the oil chart, I see resistance from $ 100 to $ 105 even higher, but it is also possible that all of this will be broken because of the Russia-Ukraine war. But if nothing happens and there is no war, the high resistances that you see in the chart can be activated and the price will fall. If the price falls, it falls well because there is no demand area to keep the price because they are all consumed. At the moment, in this political crisis, I can neither signal buying nor selling, I just have to combine all of these so that I can give you the right analysis. Good luck.
O
by CoinActionFx
3
Oil- What are Biden & Putin Trading this Weekend?Today's lesson is about NEGATIVE BALANCE PROTECTION. 🎲🎲🎲🎰 The broker always has the upper hand.. except from nights like this one. You see, markets close on Fridays and open again on Monday. When 'Urgent Situations' arise (like today, Foreign Office tells Britons in Ukraine to leave country now ), the trader can finally have an edge! Oil: The drums of war and uncertainty close to Russia affect Oil and Gas. Supply can potentially become disrupted and prices can rise even higher. Murphy's law says: These things happen on Fridays, they are usually resolved/eased during the weekend, prices could normalize with a gap on Monday. Now let's go back to NEGATIVE BALANCE PROTECTION and how I sometime use it, at my own risk : I am entering a SHORT position on Oil at the closing of today's market hours. Doing so with an amount I can afford to GAMBLE WITH , on Monday opening hours I will have an account either at ZERO or at potentially x2,x5 or even x10. Negative balance protection (some brokers have it, some don't) offers the investor/trader one of the very FEW advantages against the market. That's to be utilized tonight. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR 🎲🎰 ps. DYOR, Risk carefully and only what you can play with,..especially if you ever try such unorthodox methods like I am tonight ps2. Been killing it on Oil: Up, down, Up...now down again?
TVC:USOILShort
by FX_Professor
16
OIL: Contrarian setup aheadEverybody knows that oil is heading to the moon. In recent days, I've heard numerous estimates like $150. However, I think those estimates may be based on panic. Contrarians dare to be wrong, in the face of crowd sentiment - obviously. Everybody can see the same thing on the chart - a well formed rising broadening wedge in a bull market. Expand the chart a bit for a better view. This presents a good probability of bearishness, though price is moving north. For this sort of picture there is an estimated >70% chance of a reversal. What that means is that there is a 30% chance that price will reach the moon. But what traders want is a solid prediction - which I do not do, because I have no ownership of the future. Price doesn't have to get over 90. There is no rule that says wedges have to be 100% complete. But the pattern is sufficiently well formed once there are 3 important points on the upper and lower edges of the wedge. So - in the above I am not saying that 'oil can't go to the moon'. I'm saying there is a lesser probability of that. The red faded line is only to give a picture of what could happen. A line going to the moon would not fit on the chart. 😲😁 I'll be keeping my powder dry, whilst some punch the air. Not a problem. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
O
by Captain_Walker
2
Which target do we look at for Brent ? According to Ichimoku, we're definitely bullish on long term. Prices are perfectly supported by Daily Tenkan during their ascent. With a Fibonacci Extension, I think that $92 is a probable target to look at. If this one breaks, we could look at the 1.618 Extension, at $109.9. Will depend on the evolution of the situation in Ukraine. A possible fundamental bearish news could be that the de-escalation leads to a decrease in the attractiveness of black gold and produces a pull-back in prices, towards the Kijun Daily as first support. What do you think friends ?
TVC:UKOIL
by Augustus1st