OIL Shortpresence of resistance at recent highs could lead to consolidation or a pullback in the short term. Traders should watch for a break above these resistance levels or a decline below key support levels to confirm the next directional move.
Oilprice
Brent Crude Surges in June But Chart Pattern Raises ConcernsBrent Crude Surges in June as Inventory Draw Tightens Market, But Chart Pattern Raises Concerns
Brent crude oil prices experienced a significant rally in June 2024, rising 5% over the month. This increase adds to a positive trend for the year so far, with Brent crude accumulating a total gain of 12.85% year-to-date. However, a closer look at the price chart reveals a potential concern – the formation of a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a reversal in the upward trend.
Understanding Brent Crude and Its Global Influence
Brent crude oil, extracted from the North Sea, is a light sweet crude oil variety. Widely traded across the globe, it serves as a benchmark for oil pricing, influencing other crudes like West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark. Supply, demand, geopolitical tensions, and global economic health are all factors that impact Brent crude prices. In June 2024, a confluence of events pushed prices higher.
US Inventory Draw Tightens the Market
A key driver of the June price increase was a significant decline in US crude oil inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 2.55 million barrels. This decrease signifies that demand for crude oil is outpacing supply, a classic recipe for rising prices.
Several factors could explain the inventory decline. Economic growth can lead to increased energy consumption by businesses and consumers, driving up demand for crude oil. Geopolitical tensions can also disrupt oil supplies, further tightening available inventories.
OPEC+ Decision Adds Fuel to the Fire
Another factor influencing June's price increase was the decision by OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to loosen production cuts. Implemented in April 2020 to support oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, these cuts were gradually lifted as the global economy recovered in 2024.
The OPEC+ decision was interpreted as a sign of a tightening oil market. With rising demand and only a gradual increase in production from OPEC+, concerns arose about potential future supply constraints. This concern played a role in pushing Brent crude prices higher in June.
The Rising Wedge: A Potential Threat to the Upward Trend?
While the June price increase paints a picture of a robust oil market, a technical analysis of the Brent crude price chart reveals a potentially bearish pattern – the rising wedge. This chart formation consists of two upward-sloping trendlines, with prices seemingly trapped within an expanding channel. While the price appears to be rising, the trendlines narrow as the pattern progresses, suggesting a potential loss of momentum.
A breakout from the rising wedge, particularly downwards, is often seen as a bearish signal, indicating a potential reversal in the price trend. This could lead to a decline in Brent crude prices in the coming months.
The Two-Sided Coin of Rising Oil Prices
Higher Brent crude prices have a double-edged impact on the global economy. On the one hand, consumers face the burden of rising gasoline prices, which can strain household budgets and impact businesses reliant on transportation. Additionally, higher oil prices translate to increased costs for transportation and other goods and services.
On the other hand, oil-producing countries benefit from the price hike. Increased revenue allows them to invest in infrastructure, social programs, and economic development initiatives.
The Road Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities
Predicting the future of oil prices is a complex task. Global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production decisions will all play a role. However, the June price increase and the formation of the rising wedge pattern highlight the dynamic nature of the oil market.
While the upward trend suggests continued price increases in the near term, the rising wedge pattern warrants caution. Investors and businesses involved in oil-dependent industries should closely monitor the price chart and economic factors to navigate the potential market shift.
Oil Broader Support Market Optimism, Despite Lingering UncertainOil prices edged higher this week, marking their strongest gain in seven days. This upward momentum came despite a somewhat ambiguous outlook for crude itself, suggesting the driving force behind the rise lies elsewhere: positive sentiment in the broader financial markets.
Risk-On Rally Lifts Oil
The primary factor behind oil's recent rise is the prevailing "risk-on" sentiment dominating global markets. Equity indices, particularly in the United States, have been scaling new highs, with the S&P 500 reaching its 30th record this year. This optimism seems to be spilling over into the commodities market, including oil. Investors, buoyed by the positive performance in equities, are displaying a greater willingness to take on risk, and oil is seen as a potential beneficiary.
OPEC+ Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions Offer Underlying Support
Beyond the broader market sentiment, a couple of oil-specific factors are also contributing to the price increase. Firstly, the decision by OPEC+, the world's leading oil producer alliance, to extend production cuts has helped to tighten supply and prop up prices. Anxieties surrounding potential disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East are also lending some support.
Mixed Outlook for Crude: Demand Questions Linger
However, the outlook for crude remains somewhat clouded by uncertainties. While the supply side appears relatively stable thanks to OPEC+ intervention, demand remains a question mark. Signs of slowing economic growth in some parts of the world, particularly in Asia, raise concerns about future oil consumption. Data from China, a major consumer of oil, recently indicated weaker-than-expected industrial activity, potentially signaling a softening demand outlook. Additionally, rising gasoline prices in some regions, like India, could dampen consumer spending and lead to lower demand for fuel.
The Balancing Act: Weighing Optimism Against Uncertainty
The current situation presents a complex picture for oil markets. The positive sentiment in broader financial markets is providing a tailwind for oil prices. However, this is counterbalanced by lingering uncertainties about future demand, particularly in Asia. The net effect of these opposing forces will determine the future trajectory of oil prices.
Looking Ahead: Navigating a Volatile Market
Oil will likely see continued volatility in oil markets. Investors will be closely monitoring key factors like:
• Global economic performance: The health of major economies, particularly China, will significantly influence oil demand.
• Monetary policy decisions: Actions by central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, could impact risk appetite and indirectly affect oil prices.
• Geopolitical developments: Events in major oil-producing regions can disrupt supply and cause price spikes.
By carefully weighing these factors, market participants can navigate the current uncertainty and make informed decisions regarding oil investments.
Oil Price Find Footing as Inflation Cools, Russia Threatens CutThe global oil market witnessed a balancing act this week, with prices finding temporary stability despite conflicting forces. While data indicating a possible slowdown in US inflation offered some relief, Russia's vow to cut oil production cast a shadow of potential future price hikes.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the US benchmark, remained above $78 a barrel, clinging to the gains accrued throughout the week. This stability comes after a period of volatility, with oil prices having fluctuated significantly in recent months due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth.
The US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at their current level was the primary source of comfort for the market. This decision, coupled with recent signs of cooling inflation, suggests a potential shift in the Fed's monetary policy stance. Earlier concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation had dampened economic activity and raised fears of a recession, potentially leading to a decline in oil demand. The Fed's decision to pause on rate hikes, with the possibility of one cut later in the year, provided a sigh of relief for the oil market.
However, this cautious optimism was countered by Russia's announcement of a potential production cut. Russia, a major oil producer, has been a key player in the recent oil price volatility. The ongoing war in Ukraine has disrupted global oil supplies, and Russia has hinted at further reductions in output in retaliation for Western sanctions. This threat of a supply squeeze could push oil prices higher in the coming months, potentially negating the positive sentiment stemming from the Fed's decision.
Analysts remain divided on the long-term trajectory of oil prices. Some believe that a global economic slowdown, fueled by rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions, will eventually lead to a decrease in demand. This, coupled with a potential increase in oil production from other major producers like the US, could bring prices down.
However, others warn that the geopolitical risks remain significant. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating, and further disruptions to Russian oil exports could trigger another price surge. Additionally, the limited spare production capacity among major producers could make it difficult to compensate for any potential Russian output cuts.
The outlook for oil prices in the coming months is thus uncertain. While the Fed's decision and signs of cooling inflation offer some hope for stability, the threat of Russian production cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to pose significant upside risks.
Looking beyond the immediate future, the long-term trend for oil prices will likely depend on the pace of the global energy transition. As countries around the world invest in renewable energy sources and push for decarbonization, the demand for oil is expected to decline over time. This could lead to a gradual decrease in oil prices in the long run. However, the transition away from fossil fuels is a complex process, and oil is likely to remain a critical source of energy for many years to come.
In conclusion, the global oil market is currently navigating a period of flux. While short-term factors like the Fed's monetary policy and potential Russian production cuts are influencing prices, the long-term trajectory remains uncertain and will depend heavily on the pace of the global energy transition. Consumers and businesses alike should brace for continued volatility in the oil market, with prices likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and economic data releases.
The Petrodollar Agreement and the Future of OilThe term "petrodollar" refers to the value of oil bought with U.S. dollars. This concept was founded in 1974 when Saudi Arabia and the United States made an agreement to price Saudi oil exports exclusively in U.S. dollars. This arrangement had significant effects on the global economy and politics.
This system increased the global demand for U.S. dollars. Oil-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia committed to selling oil only in dollars, forcing other countries needing oil to acquire U.S. dollars for transactions. This continuous demand strengthened the value of the dollar in global markets.
This system also led to the widespread use of the dollar. Since oil is a strategic commodity used worldwide, the need for dollars to buy oil pushed countries to hold large reserves of dollars. This includes central banks and major companies that rely on importing oil to meet their needs.
Due to the increased demand and continuous use of the dollar, its value became stable. When there is a high and steady demand for a currency, its price fluctuations decrease, making it a stable and reliable currency for international trade. This stability enhanced the dollar's position as the world's main reserve currency.
Why Is the World Watching Now?
Recent geopolitical developments and changes in global alliances have sparked discussions about Saudi Arabia's role in the petrodollar system. Major economies like China and the European Union are emerging as key players in global oil markets, and there are serious and successful attempts to price oil in their currencies.
The BRICS aims to launch a new global economic system, and the idea of pricing oil in non-dollar currencies has been proposed. This idea is not just a theoretical study but is based on tangible real-world evidence. After the Russian war on Ukraine and the subsequent economic sanctions from the U.S. and the West, Russia announced it would sell its oil in rubles under certain conditions. In March 2023, a deal was made for Russia to sell oil to India, with payment in rubles. In the same month, Saudi Arabia announced its intention to consider exporting part of its oil to China in yuan.
The United Arab Emirates took the first step in this field by pricing gas in Chinese yuan. Last year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced the pricing of a shipment of Emirati gas in Chinese currency. The UAE did not immediately announce whether it would continue pricing part of its liquefied gas exports in yuan on the Shanghai Stock Exchange or if it was just testing the global market's reaction to this move.
Benefits for the UAE and China
For the UAE, the benefits include diversifying revenue sources and reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar. This move strengthens economic ties with China, the world's second-largest economy, opening up more opportunities for cooperation and joint investments. It also represents a strategic step towards achieving greater flexibility in international financial and trade dealings.
For China, this move enhances the yuan's position as an international currency, contributing to reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar in global trade. By pricing oil and gas in yuan, China can secure energy supplies with its local currency, reducing currency conversion costs and helping to enhance internal financial stability.
Impact on the Dollar
A crucial point is the global push towards renewable energy and the potential decrease in oil demand, which can significantly affect the dynamics of the petrodollar system. As the world seeks to shift to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, the importance of oil—and thus the petrodollar—may diminish in the global economy.
Additionally, the changing political landscape, including shifts in U.S. foreign policies and Saudi Arabia's strengthening relations with other global powers, may lead to a reevaluation of the petrodollar arrangement. These political shifts might prompt Saudi Arabia and other countries to consider using alternative currencies in oil trade.
Vision for Diversification
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates aim to diversify their economies away from oil dependence to achieve long-term economic sustainability and reduce risks associated with global oil price fluctuations.
Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" aims to diversify income sources and develop new economic sectors such as tourism, entertainment, industry, technology, and education. This program aims to create new job opportunities, attract foreign investments, and achieve comprehensive and sustainable economic growth.
The UAE focuses on developing sectors such as tourism, aviation, trade, finance, technology, real estate, education, and renewable energy. Through this vision, the UAE seeks to strengthen its position as a global hub in various fields, which it has largely succeeded in so far, and reduce its reliance on oil as a main part of its economy.
In summary, the world is closely watching Saudi Arabia and its allies because any changes in their approach to oil trade and currency preferences can have widespread effects on global financial markets, the strength of the U.S. dollar, and international economic relations.
WTI Oil - 4H Sell OpportunityThe WTI Oil chart shows a compelling setup for a short position. The price has rallied into a significant resistance zone around $79, coinciding with a strong downward trend line that has been respected multiple times. This area acts as a confluence of resistance, providing a high-probability entry for selling.
Given the persistent bearish trend, this resistance zone is likely to hold, reinforcing the potential for a downward move. The chart indicates that selling WTI Oil at this juncture offers a good risk-to-reward opportunity, aiming for a decline towards lower support levels as shown by the red arrows.
Saudi Arabian Oil Co / AramcoMarhaba
Saudi Arabia stocks were lower after the close on Sunday, as losses in the Cement, Hotels & Tourism and Energy & Utilities sectors led shares lower. at the close in Saudi Arabia, the Tadawul All Share lost 0.17%.the best performers of the session on the Tadawul All Share were Wafrah for Industry and Development Company SJSC (TADAWUL:2100), which rose 5.74% or 1.75 points to trade at 32.25 at the close. Meanwhile Aramco couldn't break 32.40 now heading to lower level 31.50,as you see we still in down trend, the biggest support level for Aramco is 30$ and I think its one of the good buy zones too
Crude oil for March delivery was unchanged 0.00% or 0.00 to $80.11 a barrel. Elsewhere in commodities trading, Brent oil for delivery in March rose 1.74% or 1.46 to hit $85.49 a barrel, while the February Gold Futures contract rose 1.29% or 24.55 to trade at $1,923.35 a troy ounce.
Bullish on Crude oilNYMEX:CL1!
TVC:DXY
Right now as the Crude Oil prices are at *premium and technically we are around a strong support area I think we would see a rally somewhere between 67.5 and 72.5. However, this week, we have PMI and NFP news ahead so if the reports come out to support DXY, Crude oil might stay around this area for a while (as it's seasonality suggests)
* look at the closing price of the futures contracts between July and December 2024.
OPEC+ Lowers Its Sights: Farewell to $100 Oil?The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, appear to be waving goodbye to their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. This strategic shift marks a significant change for the oil cartel, which has traditionally aimed to manipulate production levels to influence global oil prices.
A New Reality Sets In
For years, OPEC+ has strived to maintain a $100 price tag for a barrel of crude. However, the rise of the American shale industry, a technological marvel that unlocked vast domestic oil reserves in the United States, threw a wrench into their plans. This newfound production glut significantly impacted OPEC+'s ability to control oil prices through production cuts.
In a recent meeting, OPEC+ acknowledged this new reality. Instead of clinging to the $100 dream, they announced a gradual increase in production quotas, likely leading to lower oil prices. This decision reflects a pragmatic approach to a market fundamentally changed by US shale production.
Pumping Now, Before the Window Closes
The decision to increase production can be seen as an opportunistic one. With global economies starting to recover from the pandemic and energy demand rising, OPEC+ sees a chance to capitalize on the current market conditions. By pumping more oil now, they can capture a larger share of the market before the shale boom potentially slows down.
However, there are also risks associated with this strategy. Flooding the market with additional crude could lead to a price drop, potentially hurting OPEC+ members' long-term revenue streams.
A Difficult Time for Saudi Arabia
The shift in strategy comes at a particularly challenging time for Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+. The kingdom faces ambitious spending plans to diversify its economy away from oil dependence. Lower oil prices could significantly hamper these efforts, putting a strain on Saudi Arabia's finances.
Uncertainties Remain
While the decision to increase production signifies a move away from the $100 target, the long-term implications remain unclear. The exact impact on oil prices will depend on various factors, including the pace of production increases, global economic growth, and the future trajectory of the US shale industry.
A Reshaped Oil Market
The OPEC+ decision marks a turning point in the global oil market. The era of OPEC+ wielding absolute control over oil prices seems to be over. The rise of US shale has created a new dynamic, forcing OPEC+ to adapt and adjust its strategies.
Looking Ahead
The oil market's future will likely be characterized by greater competition, with OPEC+ and US shale producers vying for market share. How this competition unfolds and how oil prices react will be a story to watch closely in the coming months and years.
Conclusion
OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production signifies a strategic shift away from their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. While this move presents potential advantages, it also carries risks, particularly for Saudi Arabia. The future of the oil market remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the landscape has been reshaped, and the era of OPEC+ dominance is fading.
OPEC+ Extends Production Cuts: A Calculated Volatile MoveThe recent OPEC+ meeting on June 2nd, 2024, resulted in a significant decision to extend production cuts. This move by the oil cartel, which includes major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, aims to navigate a complex economic climate and influence global oil prices.
Here's a breakdown of the key takeaways from the meeting:
• Extended Cuts of 3.66 Million Bpd Until December 2025: This is the most impactful decision. OPEC+ originally planned to ease these cuts by the end of 2024. However, extending them by a year indicates a commitment to controlling supply and potentially keeping oil prices elevated.
• Prolonged Cuts of 2.2 Million Bpd Until September 2024: These deeper cuts, initially set to expire in June 2024, have been extended for an additional three months. This further tightens the supply in the short term.
• Phased Out Production Cuts (2.2 Million Bpd) from October 2024 to September 2025: While extending cuts, OPEC+ has acknowledged the need for a gradual return to pre-cut production levels. This measured approach aims to prevent a price shock if all cuts were lifted abruptly.
Understanding the reasoning behind these decisions requires looking at the current oil market landscape. Several factors are likely influencing OPEC+'s strategy:
• Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disrupt global energy supplies. This disruption, coupled with potential sanctions on Russian oil, has tightened supply and driven prices upwards. OPEC+ may be aiming to maintain a price floor by keeping production cuts in place.
• Post-Pandemic Recovery: The global economy is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. While demand for oil is increasing, it hasn't fully reached pre-pandemic levels. OPEC+ might be cautious about increasing supply too quickly, fearing it could outpace demand and lead to a price slump.
• Shale Oil Production: The resurgence of shale oil production in the United States is a factor to consider. OPEC+ might be strategically keeping production cuts to maintain its market share and influence over global oil prices.
The decision to extend cuts is likely to have a domino effect:
• Impact on Oil Prices: Analysts predict that the production cut extensions will likely lead to a continued rise in oil prices. This could benefit oil-producing nations but put a strain on consumers and industries reliant on oil, potentially leading to higher transportation costs and production expenses.
• Global Economic Growth: Higher oil prices can dampen economic growth as consumer spending power decreases due to increased energy costs. This is a concern for countries already grappling with inflation.
• Shift Towards Renewables: OPEC+'s move to control supply could incentivize a faster transition towards renewable energy sources. Countries looking to lessen their dependence on volatile oil prices might accelerate investments in clean energy alternatives.
The future trajectory of the oil market remains uncertain. OPEC+'s decision to extend production cuts is a calculated move to navigate a complex economic climate. While it might benefit oil-producing nations in the short term, it could also have consequences for consumers and the global economic recovery. How this strategy unfolds and how the market reacts will be interesting to watch in the coming months.
Can Oil soar on June 2 OPEC+ cut hopes? Can Oil soar on June 2 OPEC+ cut hopes?
WTI crude futures and Brent continue to recover from three-month lows. The rebound is potentially driven by expectations that OPEC+ will extend its output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day into the second half of the year during its June 2 meeting.
Additional support for crude prices came from the start of the U.S. summer driving season and a weaker dollar.
Further data on the demand side will come from upcoming U.S. PCE to gauge the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. A softer-than-expected reading on the PCE could increase the possibility of interest rate cuts, and potentially enhance the demand for energy.
Deutsche Bank has maintained its Brent forecast at $83 per barrel for the second quarter and $88 for the second half of the year, assuming OPEC+ will sustain its current production policy on Sunday.
Should prices move above the $80 level, WTI could test the 50-day moving average just above $81.1. The RSI suggests there is still room for prices to rise before reaching the overbought zone. Conversely, if prices fall below the $78 range, they might stabilize around the $76 mark.
USOIL - Short or Buy? Break down or retracement up? Technicals
1. We have been stuck in a range on a higher time frame for quite some time now.
2. On a higher time frame we failed to confirm a break-up from a trendline dating back to March 2022, which was the COVID-19 highs. A failed break-up of this mega trendline is normally a sign of big reversal or retracement. & we did just that ;-) question is, is this a reversal or just a retracement because I see also a trendline from DEC 2023 which we trade just under. IMO we have not fully confirmed that break down.
3. Visible in my chart we see that we are since then on a big down sloping channel which is still respected.
Fundamentals
1. My bias is slightly bearish long term because I think the US economy & other major economies will be in a recession which will give downside pressure on the price of OIL
2. Conflict in the Middle East seems to have not a significant impact as of now on the price of USOIL. Will this change? Till I see major escalation happening I don't see that it will have greater impact than it already has. US also is less energy dependent so therefor geopolitical will impact less.
3. Bullish sign is that OPEC is still holding strong on OIL cuts and China is still strong. Summer season will also give some upside pressure because of demand.
Trade
1. The first trade, which is a buy option, I will take if I see buyers really taking over to push price up
2. The second trade, which is a sell, I will take if we confirm a break and retest of the weekly low.
Great trading all of you
Greetingz,
Simba Trades
$OIL needs to be dumped moreIn my prev. ideas shared the weakened chart of #usoil #crudeoil and this weak structure continues. Correction is necessary in mid term. Not financial advice.
Oil Counter-Trend Longs into Next ShortOil has broken the 15 minute shorts and now are on their way to the All The Way HWB shorts in on the larger 4 hour time frames. You can see how on Friday, the small time frame shorts survived multiple 4 hour candle dives below the 61.8% longs, only to close at or above the 61.8% long. Our 15 minute bias is long and expect it to trade back up to the 82.18-83.42 level, where we sold it in April. Where we can, we will try to be a buyer . . . should have bought those 15 min longs on Friday but it's a hard contract to hold over the weekend. . . .though if there is a direction to hold oil over the weekend, it would be long in the event of a geo-political issue that causes a gap up in oil prices.
US Crude Oil Benchmark: Implications of Rising InventoriesThe US crude oil benchmark is currently trading around $79.50 on Friday, marking a continued decline from its recent peak of $88.00. This downward trend is attributed to several factors, including rising crude inventories in the United States and diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, despite persistent inflationary pressures, has contributed to market sentiment. The central bank indicated that it will refrain from cutting interest rates until it has greater confidence in the sustained moderation of price increases towards its 2% target. This stance, described as "higher-for-longer," suggests a prolonged period of unchanged rates, potentially leading to reduced demand for oil as economic activity slows.
In light of these developments, there is a strategic opportunity to consider buying oil at discounted prices. Two buy limit orders have been placed, anticipating a potential increase in oil prices over the next two months. This expectation is supported by historical patterns and insights from the Cot report, which indicates a decrease short positions of Money Managers. Consequently, there is optimism for a rebound in oil value in the foreseeable future.
Crude - Pre Market Guessing.So I don't take too much of my time on the weekend trying to figure out where price is going to go as price isnt even active.
So barring any exponential moves Sunday open I am still bearish and have :
Monthly Wick CE and target 1
Weekly SSL as target 2
Pre CME open I will re analyse where the market is and publish further forecast for the day.
OIL BUYAgain an opportunity to expect oil to rise.
The exchange rate rebounds from the support-resistance level.
Technical Forecast... Crude OilWith FOMC looming today and NFC I don't see any reason for the Weekly SSL to be taken out and price to at least stab into the Daily FVG.
I will be looking out for meaning full moves into these price points during NY session today.
London may offer a little chance to create some false idea we have done it but usually the move is fake and revisited.
80.50 is my weekly objective as it has been from late last week.
So my trade idea's will evolve around price post retracement and then heading down.
Crude Oil Tuesday.Daily Bearish
Stay Bearish bias until 1hr -OB is closed above with a displacement candle @ 83.25
In this chart I am illustrating why IMO, this is a High resistance Liquidity run and not LRLR.
The Price in the circle is Balanced, so for price to cut through this with ease is difficult all be it we have a signature LRLR bellow.
So if a bearish setup appears don't expect it to run through like butter..
I am looking for bearish PA
Crude Oil ForecastSo I was looking at Crude on the weekend and I couldn't determine a clear direction for Monday.
Now Monday Is almost over and we Have disrespected the Mean threshold of the Daily +OB I do expect price to be bearish and heading down towards the Daily FVG.
An Good indicator on the Daily we have respected the WEEKLY ifvg CE.
These things are very important to watch.
Before 0930est I will post intra day targets that I suspect will be Draw On Liquidity.
Bring on Tuesday!
Why Oil Bulls May Be Right: Signs of a Tightening MarketOil prices have experienced a volatile period in recent months, with concerns about global economic growth and geopolitical tensions battling it out with signs of a tightening physical market. However, for investors with a long-term perspective, recent developments suggest a potential bull run for oil, making it an attractive asset to consider.
Here's a deeper dive into why going long on oil could be a strategic move:
Tightening Physical Supplies: One of the most compelling arguments for a long position is the evidence of a tightening physical market. This is reflected in key timespreads, which compare the price of oil for immediate delivery to the price for delivery at a future date. In a healthy market with ample supply, the price of oil for immediate delivery would be lower than the price for future delivery (contango). However, when the physical market tightens, the opposite happens – the price of oil for immediate delivery becomes higher than the price for future delivery (backwardation). This phenomenon, currently observed in the oil market, suggests that there is a higher demand for oil right now than there is readily available supply.
OPEC+ Production Cuts: Adding fuel to the fire are the production cuts implemented by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+. These cuts, aimed at supporting oil prices, have helped to restrict supply and contribute to the tightening market conditions. While OPEC+ is considering easing the cuts in the coming months, the extent of this easing and its impact on the market remain uncertain.
Geopolitical Instability: Geopolitical tensions around the world, particularly in major oil-producing regions, can also disrupt supply and push prices higher. Recent events, such as ongoing conflicts or threats to critical infrastructure, highlight the vulnerability of the global oil supply chain.
Limited Non-OPEC Growth: While concerns persist about a potential slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in China, the anticipated increase in oil production from non-OPEC members may be less pronounced than previously expected. This could further exacerbate supply constraints and bolster the case for oil bulls.
However, some headwinds remain: It's important to acknowledge the countervailing factors that could dampen oil prices. The persistent issue of inflation in the US, for instance, could lead to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, could strengthen the US dollar and make oil, priced in dollars, more expensive for buyers using other currencies, potentially dampening demand.
Conclusion: Despite these headwinds, the evidence of a tightening physical market, coupled with OPEC+ production cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and limited non-OPEC growth, paints a compelling picture for a potential oil price rally. For investors with a long-term perspective, strategically going long on oil could be a profitable decision. However, careful monitoring of factors that might impact supply and demand, such as global economic conditions and policy decisions, is crucial for managing risk and making informed investment choices.
Oil / Crude Oil Heading into end of WeekSo we are on the Daily Not moving with much drive and lets say... obvious direction when it comes to day to day bias (Overall Bearish)
I am ONLY focusing on PDH and PDL as targets today with any signal to buy or sell into the market being in a discount before I place a trade.
Range day - yes
To consider that Thursday's have seen good movement on Oil recently so keep this in mind.
Consider also that the Daily wick CE is also aligned with the weekly ifvg.
I will be looking to enter positions today as I am a scalper however anything on the 15min or above I would side with caution as prolonged moves may not be on the cards esp going on the last two weeks of PA.
Also like to thank the people who Boost my posts it means a lot.
Jump on the Oil Swings with Confidence!I am excited to share some positive news with you regarding the recent developments in the oil industry.
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories took a significant dip last week, falling by a whopping 6.37 million barrels. This decline has sparked a wave of optimism in the market, with WTI prices hovering around $83 a barrel and swinging between gains and losses.
As we navigate through this risk-off mood and witness the US stockpile decline, now is the perfect time to consider going long on oil. The potential for further price increases is certainly within reach, and this could be a lucrative opportunity for all of us.
So, let's not hesitate and take advantage of these oil swings with confidence. Trust your instincts, do your research, and make informed decisions. Together, we can ride the wave of success in the oil market.
