Oil/Crude oil - TuesdaySo we have achieved one target for price and that was to reach the Daily V.i and so far London has rejected going higher...
Would like to see price head down post 0930est
My target is still 80.50 just waiting for price to align with my thoughts is what is most important before pressing the button.
At minimum PDL would be a bearish target
I don't see why we would want to go higher until proven wrong - Closing above the Daily V.i...
Thanks
Oilprice
Oil Traders Navigate Geopolitical Risk in Already Tight MarketThe recent escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict has cast a long shadow over the global oil market. Already grappling with tight supply and high prices, oil traders are now forced to factor in the potential for disruptions caused by the ongoing hostilities. This idea explores the current situation, potential outcomes, and analyst perspectives on the future of oil prices.
A Market on Edge: Tight Supply and Geopolitical Risk
The oil market entered 2024 facing a confluence of factors pushing prices upwards. Limited production increases from OPEC+, ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war, and a rebounding global economy demanding more energy all contributed to a tight supply situation. This dynamic sent oil prices surging above $90 a barrel earlier this year.
The escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel adds a new layer of uncertainty to this already volatile market. Iran's direct attack on Israel marks a significant shift, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East, a region that accounts for roughly a fifth of global oil production.
Focus on the Strait of Hormuz
A key concern for oil traders is the potential for disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's oil transits. Any actions that threaten the free flow of oil through this strategic waterway could send prices skyrocketing. Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait in response to heightened tensions, and recent events have heightened focus on this possibility.
Futures Market Reacts, But Risks Remain
Following the initial attack by Iran, oil futures prices did experience a spike as traders factored in the increased risk premium. However, prices have since eased somewhat, indicating a degree of cautious optimism that the situation might not escalate further. Despite this, analysts warn that the underlying risks remain.
Analysts Weigh In: Possible Outcomes and Price Predictions
Several potential scenarios could emerge from the current situation, each with its own impact on oil prices.
• Tighter Sanctions: Banks like Goldman Sachs highlight the possibility of stricter sanctions being imposed on Iran, potentially leading to a loss of 500,000 to 1 million barrels of oil per day from the global market.
• Israeli Military Response: Analysts at RBC Capital Markets warn that a significant Israeli retaliation could trigger a destabilizing cycle, further disrupting oil supplies and pushing prices even higher.
• Limited Conflict: Other analysts, like ING, suggest that the market had already priced in the possibility of a limited attack, and the potential for a measured Israeli response could see prices stabilize or even decline slightly.
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Citigroup, however, takes a more cautious approach, raising its short-term price forecasts due to the "extremely high" tensions. They estimate that a full-blown conflict between Iran and Israel could see oil prices surge as high as $100 per barrel.
Looking Ahead: A Market in Flux
The future trajectory of oil prices hinges largely on how the situation between Iran and Israel unfolds. While the easing of futures prices offers a glimmer of hope, the underlying risks remain. Oil traders must closely monitor developments in the region and adjust their strategies accordingly. Analysts remain divided, with some predicting further escalation and others hoping for a de-escalation. One thing is certain: the coming weeks will be crucial in determining the fate of oil prices in the near future.
Oil Prices Surge on Rising Tensions in the Middle EastOil prices surged today, reaching their highest level since October 2023, amid heightened geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. The increase comes as Israel braces for a potential retaliatory strike from Iran following a recent Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria.
This latest development adds another layer of uncertainty to the already volatile global oil market. Concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East, a region that accounts for roughly one-third of the world's crude oil output, are driving prices higher.
Rising Tensions Fuel Oil Price Rally
News reports, citing sources familiar with the matter, suggest that Israel is preparing for a possible attack from Iran or its proxies in the coming days. This follows the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria last week, which was widely seen as a significant escalation of tensions between the two nations.
The United States and its allies believe that a major missile attack by Iran is imminent. This perceived threat of a wider conflict in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through the oil market. Investors are concerned that any military confrontation could disrupt oil production and exports from the region, leading to a significant supply shortfall.
This perception of risk is reflected in the options market, where traders are actively buying call options – contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase oil at a certain price by a certain date. The increased demand for call options suggests that many investors are anticipating a further rise in oil prices.
Analysts Weigh In: Bullish vs. Cautious
Analysts are divided on the potential impact of the current situation on oil prices. Some, like those at Commerzbank, believe that a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran would be a "game-changer" for the oil market, leading to a significant and sustained price increase.
Others, however, are taking a more cautious approach. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report today, downgrading its outlook for global oil demand this year and next. The report cites the ongoing economic slowdown in China, the world's largest oil importer, as a key factor behind the downward revision.
Beyond the Middle East: Other Factors at Play
While the Israel-Iran tensions are currently the dominant factor driving oil prices higher, it's important to remember that other factors are also at play in the global oil market.
• Limited Spare Capacity: OPEC, the world's leading oil producer cartel, and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, have limited spare production capacity. This means that if there is a disruption in oil supplies from the Middle East, it will be difficult to quickly replace the lost barrels.
• Geopolitical Risks Beyond the Middle East: Recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine have also contributed to the overall sense of unease in the oil market.
• Post-Pandemic Recovery: The ongoing global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continues to drive up demand for oil, particularly in transportation sectors.
The Road Ahead: A Balancing Act
The future path of oil prices will depend on how the situation in the Middle East unfolds. If a wider conflict is averted, oil prices could moderate somewhat, especially if the IEA's concerns about slowing demand materialize.
However, if tensions escalate and there is a significant disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East, then a sustained price increase is highly likely. Additionally, how OPEC+ responds to the evolving situation will also be a key factor.
The cartel is currently scheduled to meet in May to discuss production quotas. If they decide to maintain their current production levels or even cut output, it could further tighten the market and push prices even higher.
Impact on Consumers and Businesses
Rising oil prices have a ripple effect throughout the global economy. Consumers are likely to see higher prices at the pump, as gasoline and diesel costs typically track the price of crude oil.
Businesses that rely heavily on oil and other energy sources will also face higher input costs, which could lead to higher prices for goods and services across the board. This could further dampen economic growth, especially in countries that are already grappling with high inflation.
Conclusion: A Volatile Market with High Stakes
The oil market is currently in a state of high uncertainty. The rising tensions in the Middle East are a significant risk factor, but they are not the only factor at play. The interplay of supply and demand dynamics, the actions of OPEC+, and the overall health of the global economy will all play a role in determining the future path of oil prices.
In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain volatile as investors grapple with the potential for a wider conflict in the Middle East. In the long term, the outlook for oil prices will depend on a complex mix of factors, making it difficult to predict with certainty where they will go from here.
Hedge Funds Go Long Oil as Middle East Tensions SimmerBuckle Up for Black Gold: Hedge Funds Go Long Oil as Middle East Tensions Simmer
Oil Bulls Charge as Geopolitical Heat Rises
The rumble of tanks in the Middle East is echoing through financial markets, with hedge funds piling into long positions on oil futures at a record pace. This aggressive bullish stance is a direct response to intensifying conflict in the region, a major source of the world's crude.
The So Long, So Short of It
The logic is simple: supply disruptions = higher prices. When tensions flare and the threat of production or export interruptions looms large, the perception of scarcity sends chills down the spines of oil-dependent economies. This fear translates into action, with buyers willing to pay a premium to secure reliable supplies, pushing prices upwards.
Hedge Funds See Green in the Black
Hedge funds, notorious for their high-risk, high-reward strategies, see this geopolitical instability as a golden opportunity. By taking long positions in oil futures contracts, they're essentially placing a hefty bet that oil prices will continue their upward trajectory. If their predictions hold true, they stand to reap significant profits.
Hold Onto Your Stetsons: Prices Could Go Wild
Should the situation in the Middle East escalate further, potentially leading to a disruption in oil production or exports, brace yourselves for a price surge. This scenario would be a boon for the long-oil hedge funds, but a major headache for consumers and businesses worldwide, as energy costs would skyrocket.
A Word to the Wise: Don't Get Bucked Off
The oil market is a complex beast, influenced by a multitude of factors beyond geopolitical tensions. A diplomatic breakthrough or the emergence of alternative sources of supply could cause prices to plummet. Before jumping on the long-oil bandwagon, investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and conduct thorough research.
TradingView: Your Oil Market Oasis
Navigate the volatile currents of the oil market with confidence using TradingView's robust charting tools and in-depth market analysis. Track oil price movements, stay updated on geopolitical developments, and leverage expert insights to make informed trading decisions.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Sasol showing upside to come with two patterns target R228.61There are two potential rising formations to come for Sasol.
Either Rev Cup and Handle or Inv Head and shoulders
We do need the confirmation though for upside to continue to come.
Moving averages yield a Medium Probability setup with
Price>20
Price<200
Oil is also confiriming a short to medium term rally which will help push up the price
Target R228.61
Crude oil pays attention to short-term adjustments
Crude oil currently continues to maintain a good oscillatory upward trend along the short-term moving average on the weekly trend. It also maintains a good oscillatory upward trend on the daily trend. Although it has gone out of a slight rise and fall, the strong technical form is still the same.
Nothing has changed. There is a certain degree of divergence in the 4-hour trend. The K-line has begun to gradually break through the short-term moving average. There may be a certain degree of adjustment in the short-term trend.
Crude oil is at a high level, don’t be aggressive in chasing bulAt present, crude oil is around 86, which has reached the expected high point. Although technically bullish, this level is no longer suitable for chasing the rise. According to technical expectations, it should be temporarily suspended between 86-85. If crude oil does not stop in the short term, then the short-term market will exceed expectations, so it is okay to miss it and not participate. And if crude oil has a correction in the short term, it will be an opportunity for long orders to enter the market. In the short term, 85.35 will continue to be bullish. If there is a sudden adjustment and correction, the double bottom support above 84.2 will be bullish, and the resistance target is 86.5-87.
Trading strategy: You can go long with light positions near 85.5-3, stop loss at 84.8, if there is support at 84.5 above the 4-hour mid-rail, you can participate with long orders here.
Crude oil hits new highs, if it falls back, you can go long
At present, due to the intensification of international geopolitical conflicts, market supply concerns have once again heated up. At the same time, manufacturing data in the United States and China have rebounded, and demand-side expectations have increased. The dual benefits on both sides of supply and demand have stimulated the rebound of crude oil. Technically, the continuous positive closing continues to test the upper pressure level. .
In terms of operation, we will focus on the pressure level near 85, and the gradually moving upward support near 82. We will support the bullish trend by stepping back, but do not consider aggressive pursuit of the increase.
Crude oil is short around 84.4, stop loss is 85.2, target is below 82.6
Go long near 82.3, stop loss 81.5, target above 84
Ideas are for reference only. Profit and loss are at your own risk. Investment is risky. Please be cautious when entering the market.
Crude oil pressure is obvious, bulls are cautious
U.S. crude oil inventories continue to rise, and short-term demand concerns have also increased. However, as expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have increased, the loose atmosphere has given crude oil some support. At the same time, short-term supply-side pressure has increased as geopolitical conflicts intensify.
Crude oil also stretched again after repeated repetitions. Technically, longs and shorts closed alternately. The top still focused on the pressure around 84, but did not chase the rise too much.
Oil hits YTD peak. What are the risks now? Oil prices reached their highest level in seven months, partly driven by worries that escalating tensions in the Middle East could constrain supply.
Iran has warned of a potential "serious response" against Israel following a targeted strike in Damascus that resulted in the deaths of two Iranian generals. This incident has raised concerns about a widening conflict in the Middle East, following over five months of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
Furthermore, Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive by targeting Russia's oil infrastructure. Although the attacks have so far reportedly only caused minimal damage. Ukraine's objective is to disrupt Russia's main financial support for its invasion of Ukraine.
Better-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) reports from China and the US have also buoyed optimism in the oil market. Because of this, investors might anticipate increased demand in the manufacturing and industrial sectors of both countries.
WTI has now found support just above $84.00. The 100 SMA is above the 200, potentially indicating that support is likely to hold. However, caution might be warranted as the market nears overbought conditions. If the $84.00 level fails to provide support, the subsequent target could be slightly below $81.00, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the low in March to the recent peak. Alternatively, a less significant pullback might see buyers stepping in at the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci levels.
WTICO Outperforms BCO on US Oil Production RiseWTICO (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil) has recently been outperforming BCO (Brent Crude Oil). This trend coincides with an increase in US-produced oil replacing sanctioned Indian refined oil.
Potential Opportunity in WTICO
The shift in market dynamics could present an opportunity for traders considering long positions in WTICO. However, as always, it's important to conduct your own research and consider factors like:
• Market Volatility: Oil prices can fluctuate significantly due to various factors.
• Global Oil Production: Changes in global oil production can impact WTICO's price.
• Your Investment Strategy: This trade should align with your overall risk tolerance and investment goals.
Stay Informed, Make Informed Decisions
We recommend staying updated on market developments before making any investment decisions.
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Israel strikes Iranian consulate, what does WTI chart tells us?Hi, 1PERCENT here.
Today I am sharing a chart that I drew a few years ago.
Contrary to crypto where we have fast movements of 30% intraday,
Bonds, commodities, inflation rates, etc. are "slow movers"... but only in peaceful times.
So patience is required for investors who focus on the forest. You were correct, but 10 years early. Now is your time to shine.
#PeterSchiff #MikeMaloney
WTI crude oil price that bounced from the $68-74 support zone .
This support zone held well even last year when mass media and the EIA (US government's puppy) kept screaming that we have an oversupply of oil & gas.
Remember what happened back in 2022 when oil went to $128? Especially those in Europe & Asia?
Pay attention & Be prepared for the changes occurring in our societies.
Stay safe.
1PERCENT
Will U.S. oil rebound and repair next week?Crude oil is currently going through a wave of surges and falls on the weekly trend, but it still maintains its operation on the short-term moving average. Pay attention to whether there will be continued adjustment on the line next week. On the daily trend, the current price has begun to touch near the previous support band, and the downward trend has begun to slow down. After the continuous low fluctuations in the intraday 4-hour trend, the technical form showed signs of gradual recovery. The K-line began to slowly stand on the short-term moving average. It is believed that crude oil will rebound to a certain extent in the short-term trend.
If you are not confident in your trading, you can follow me and I will share trading ideas every day
Jump on the Oil Trend as Russia Refineries Attacks Drive Prices I wanted to bring to your attention the latest trend in the oil market - prices are on the rise due to recent attacks on refineries in Russia.
These attacks have caused disruptions in the supply chain, leading to an increase in oil prices. This presents a great opportunity for you to capitalize on this trend and make some significant profits by going long on oil.
Don't miss out on this golden opportunity to make some quick gains in the market. Take advantage of the current situation and place your bets on oil to see your investments grow.
So, what are you waiting for? Get in on the action and go long on oil today
Crude oil is focusing on support near 80, how to trade today?
The short-term trend of crude oil (1H) fluctuated and hit new lows, testing the 80 support. The moving average system is arranged in a short position, and the short-term objective trend is downward. Oil prices hit around 80.70, forming a certain recurrence, and their upward strength is relatively weak. It is expected that crude oil will remain volatile in the short term during the day.
Trading strategy: 81.60 short, stop loss: 81.90, target 80.60.Trading strategies are for reference only
How will U.S. oil trade after the Federal Reserve decision?U.S. oil continued to fluctuate and repaired yesterday. The bullish EIA data in the evening failed to bring rebound momentum to U.S. oil. On the contrary, the market retreated to around the 80.8 line in response to technical needs before rebounding. Of course, this period was also affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. , in the end, US oil still closed with a negative line.
If U.S. oil falls back to the 81-80.7 area today and tomorrow, you can be aggressive and light up your position. If you have long positions at this level overnight, you can still keep it. However, you can reduce your position as appropriate when the pressure is measured near 82 at the top during the day.
Can U.S. oil continue to be bullish? How to trade?The release of U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision may bring external interference to the trend, so U.S. oil needs to be careful in the short term.
The bullish tone at the daily level has been locked in. A firm hold at 80 will lay the foundation for medium and long-term bullishness. As long as there are no major negative fundamentals in the future, it is worth looking forward to the medium and long-term bullishness of the 84-85 area and even the 90 area for U.S. oil.
In the day, U.S. oil can see a temporary pressure correction on the 83 line, but don’t expect too much in the repair space below. You can focus on the 5-day line around 81.7-5. If the data tonight is negative, the short-term retracement target can be lowered. Moving to the 81-80.5 area, the main line of thinking is still bullish on US oil, so whenever a retracement is seen, we should still consider choosing lows to place long orders, provided that 80 cannot be broken. In addition, due to the frequent incidents affecting U.S. oil-related fundamentals from tonight to early tomorrow morning, conservatives can choose to wait and see and make relevant strategic adjustments after the fundamentals stabilize tomorrow. If you participate in radical activities during the day, you must also wait for the extreme point before participating, and you must make adjustments closely following fundamental events. Do not make judgments based solely on technical expectations.
Crude oil is long in the 81.60 area and looks at 82.80Crude oil’s weekly support is 79.70, daily support is 79.90, one-hour support is 81.60, and four-hour support is 80.40.
Yesterday, crude oil rose from 80.50 to 82.50, and the market currently maintains a bullish trend.
Crude oil recommendation today: Go long at 81.60 for U.S. crude oil WTI, stop loss at 81.15, look at 82.80
Crude oil made a profit yesterday. How to trade today?
Crude oil was prompted to go long near 81-81.1 yesterday, and it was also profitable yesterday. So how to trade today?
If there is a correction in U.S. oil today and tomorrow, and the retracement below is in the 81.5 and 81-80.7 areas, it can be regarded as an opportunity to enter the market with short-term long orders.