What's the next step for OIL? Short or Long?As we've seen in our previous post, we succeeded to expect what will happen and we successfully had reached our target of 35$ .
What we see now is a deep correction for WTI, we have broken 37$, 36$, 35$, and it went to attack 34.4$ without mercy. We are in a bearish channel, but as you see, there's a double-top there (which can be triple-top) that can be used to make nice profits from being short after breaking the neckline which is 35.2 , then wait for the confirmation to target 34.4$.
34.4$ which is very important resistance, if a H4 candle closed below it, then wait for the confirmation on M30 chart to target 33.72$ , then 33.25$ (if it continued), then as a last step 32.8 which is 23.6% of the fibo of the Bullish wave that started from 6.5$ till 40.47$ . After it, we will see what can happen next.
If the H4 candle couldn't close below 34.4$ , when we can see there a double-bottom and then use it to go to test 36.10$ then 37$ to see whether we can attack the end of the gap again or not.
Don't forget to tell me how you see it in the comments!
Chiao !
Oilprice
US OIL : Break above 39.30 required for Bullish ContinuationOIL has started the downward correction and reached around 34.60 which is the Fibo Extn. 1.61
Usually, if the price extends above 100% on Fibo, it's a sign of trend formation; one can expect the pullback and continuation of the move in the same direction.
Therefore, I remain bearish for OIL until it closes above the falling trendline and breaks resistance at 39.30
GOOD LUCK FOR YOUR TRADES !!! PLEASE SHOW YOUR SUPPORT IF YOU LIKED THE IDEA
OIL Stocks vs Oil PriceOf course there's a correlatión between the stock and oil prices (WTI), but this chart can give us a little more understanding about it.
TSXV:CEP
NYSE:RIG
NASDAQ:CDEV
NYSE:DNR
AMEX:NOG
NYSE:QEP
I set the baseline price at $ 54.00, if you see the chart you can see some years above that price with a good stock performance and of course the opposite, but more important, the momentum where the prices drop and their effect on the stocks, right now we're just recovering the oil prices but the shares still low, so I think this could be a good opportunity for long term (except for those companies about to declare bankrupcy).
The baseline price is not fixed but I found more support and resistance points at the same level
This is not an investment advice.
Where WTI is going to? When to short or to long?As we've seen at the beginning of this week that WTI had reached its highest value since COVID-19 has started 40.4$. As many experts expected that it needs a nice correction before going up again, but actually what was there was like the price was just moving around 38$.
Since the 2nd of June, we have started to shape the left shoulder of the needed pattern (head & 2 shoulders) which is a very nice pattern at the end of any uptrend + a triangle in which we are waiting for any real break of it.
I see here a very nice chance to short it if a 4-hours candle closed below the bearish level to consider it as a break of the neck, then we wait for the confirmation to target 37$ then 35$ if it continued, and our stop must directly above 39$ which is the right shoulder.
Also, we can long if a 4-hours candle closed above 39$ (which is the right shoulder line) to target again 41$ (the end of the gap).
Don't forget to share with me your opinion of it. I'm waiting for your comments!
A huge thing is going to happen at June 11 at 13 o'clockEverything are converging at one point and it is clearly indicating huge chances comming up. Everything is clearly pointing towards a bullish ralley.
Small Correction + continuation in 3vThe triangular correction has shifted to that shown on chart
Close all pending longs at market for profit
Compile another long position (1/2 contract through limit orders @
Buy 10k @ $37.90
Buy 10k @ $37.8
Buy 10k @ $37.7
Buy 20k @ $37.6
Buy 10k @ $37.5
TP for all @ $ 39
Take Care & Stay safe
US oil short, strong divergence Oil looks good for a temporary respite on the march to close the gap at 41. We now have a nice strong divergence on the hour chart at the top of the rising wedge channel, we can probably expect a pull back to test either of the green support lines and possibly a test break of the rising wedge.
Stop just above the hourly divergence, profits to be taken at each support level. If the divergence fails 41 may come sooner than expected... and we could consider reverses and going long
Oil Future for sell to dayHello everybody,
The Oil Future was in equilibrium but broken after that in point A, then it came back to the rectangle in point B and break it in point C.
The break-in point C shows that for today, Oil will go down, in a decreasing trend.
So, selling oil would be a good choice for today.
But we should pay attention, if the stock break the resistance, it could return to the rectangle of equilibrium.
OIL MARKET RECOVERY STALLED BY UNCERTAINTIES AND GEOPOLITICAL TUWith June right at the corner, and this month staging 87% recovering in the black gold market, prices have unfortunately found a strong level at the $34 handle. The WTI index has struggled to cheer the USD's weakness and is currently trading in red in the Asian session with a correction of 1.5% from the Thursday session. Investors' sentiment is dampened amid heightening uncertainties with the current situation in Asia with the latest signal from the US of a possible change in its long-standing policy towards China and its internal affair within Hong Kong.
Technically speaking, the price action had a seesawing week, consolidating between $30 and $34 handle. Although trading above the smaller EMA 18 & 50, MACD is finally showing diminished bullish momentum, turning a bit sour with the intention to form a sell signal. RSI condition is moving far from its overbought level. Investors should consider further movement in the price action before placing their bets.
Any unexpected situation can quickly tarnish the positive momentum in the market. Yesterday's report about the massive buildup in the US crude inventories where the levels rose to 7.9 M barrels from a forecast of -2.5 M, instead of dropping the price, actually gave additional support to the market. It does not look right; the continued appearance of positive momentum and this rebalance faster than expected might be more artificial than real. However, by June is expected a 4 Mb/d increase in demand and cuts in the supply of about 12 MB/d could bring the market into balance.
🛢️Is the 12 year oil bear market coming to an end?🛢️It looks like the lockdown may have been what oil needed to take oil out of its 12-year bear market.
Oil has been trending downwards for over a decade, with sharp sell-offs pointed by the yellow arrows. The graph shows a very brutal bear market for oil.
The lockdown did not help, reducing the demand for oil so much the price went negative.
But was this the catalyst oil needed to breakout into a new bull market?
Since there was nowhere to store oil, producers started shutting down wells, shutting down well is very expensive, and re-starting them is also very expensive.
Data shows that the amount of oil coming out the ground now is slowing as wells are turned off, and some will not come back online again.
A wave of US shale oil producers filing for bankruptcy is rising as we speak, another supply shock.
Demand may not even need to hit pre-covid levels to enter a new bull market if producers have over-cut and there is not enough supply to meet new demand.
If inflation hits the streets, that is another bullish factor for oil.
Right now there are too many unanswered questions and the chart for oil does not look good at all, but we may be starting a new bull market if the above holds true and impacts the supply of oil.
The first level of resistance is $43, we are far away from that, it’s hard to work out support as prices have not been this low for over two decades, based on the last 3 monthly candles it’s around $17.
The RSI is not showing a lot of momentum, and things do not look good for oil in the coming months.
If you like this idea, please view my monthly ideas on Gold, Bitcoin, S&P500 and GDX. I provide a macro technical analysis combed with market fundamentals to see where price is heading next.