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🛢 CL OIL, H4 🛢 18 March 2024 🛢 CL OIL, H4 🛢 18 March 2024 Oil prices saw a slight retreat primarily attributed to technical correction. However, the long-term outlook for the oil market remains positive as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC revised their 2024 oil demand forecasts upwards for the fourth time. Economic growth surpassing expectations is anticipated to bolster oil demand, underpinning the positive trend in the oil market. Oil prices are trading flat while currently testing the support level. Suggesting the commodity might extend its losses after breakout. Resistance level: 82.45, 84.10📉 Support level: 80.20, 78.00📈
TVC:USOILShort
by top_fx
OPEC's production reduction measures will turn supply and demandCrude oil as a whole this week is going through a complex shock rebound. I have previously emphasized that from the perspective of the time cycle, the overall future focus will be on whether the low on the 26th breaks below. If it does not break below, the overall trend will be a shock upward, but we still have to wait for time to break through. This week, it rebounded further after gaining support at 76.7, closing up 4.07%, and finally closed at $80.96. From a fundamental perspective, the reasons for the continued complex fluctuations in crude oil prices this week are as follows: 1. Source: Venezuela’s Paraguana oil refining base suffered a power outage. The base’s daily output is 955,000 barrels. 2. IEA monthly report: Oil demand growth in 2024 is expected to be 1.3 million barrels per day; due to OPEC+ production reduction measures, oil supply and demand are expected to turn into a "slight deficit" in 2024. Global oil supply will increase by 800,000 barrels per day in 2024, reaching 102.9 million barrels per day. 3. The overall CPI in the United States unexpectedly rebounded in February; the market is worried that more Federal Reserve officials will adjust their expectations for interest rate cuts to two times this year. 4. The EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory in the United States increased by 596,000 barrels to 361.6 million barrels in the week to March 8, the highest since the week of May 5, 2023. 5. OPEC Monthly Report: The 2024 global economic growth forecast is raised from .7% to 2.8%, and the 2025 forecast is maintained at 2.9%; the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2024 and 2025 is maintained at 2.25 million barrels/ and 1.85 million barrels per day. The above factors are the key to the continued upward fluctuation of crude oil, and the core reason is that OPEC+ has implemented new voluntary production reduction measures. The rise in gasoline has pushed the overall CPI higher, and the unexpected rise in inflation will also support oil prices to a certain extent. Moreover, I was worried about the decline of crude oil before. There is a risk of a breakthrough, so I would like to remind you that you need to wait for a breakthrough in time. However, the overall trend is still bullish, especially the upward trend on Thursday. This will be further analyzed later; From a technical point of view, the overall outlook for next week will remain bullish. In the future, the overall focus will be on whether the low on the 26th is broken. From a time cycle perspective, the overall outlook is bullish until March 29th, so there will be no downside next week. Before 75.8, the market continued to fluctuate and was mainly bullish. But the space up and down here is very large at the moment. Risk control still needs to be done well. Making bold predictions and carefully verifying is the long-term way of trading. It is more based on the intraday strategy. The expected trend chart next week: If you are a newbie, you will not be able to complete transactions independently yet. You can refer to my trading ideas. You can follow my channel and I will alert you when trading signals appear.
TVC:USOILLong
by Donald-king
1
Seven tips for investing in gold and crude oilThe financial market is fair to everyone. Since some people lose money, some people must make money. But if you want to make a profit in investment, there is no shortcut. You can only do your homework seriously every day and accumulate diligently like an ascetic. In addition to providing some investment experience and learning methods, I also hope to find like-minded investment friends and work together. Research. Investment does not happen overnight. Losses in the early period do not mean losses in the later period; profits in the early period do not mean profits in the later period. Therefore, friends who are losing money should not be discouraged, and friends who are making profits should not be complacent. Let yourself invest rationally with a peaceful mind. 1. Learn to establish positions, close positions and make profits "Establishing a position" means opening. Opening is also called exposure, which is the act of buying gold. Choose the appropriate gold price level And timing to establish a position is a prerequisite for profitability. If you enter the market at a good time, you have a greater chance of profit: On the contrary, if you enter the market at a bad time, you are prone to losses. "Liquidation" is a stop-loss measure taken to prevent excessive losses when the gold price suddenly drops after a position is established. For example, if you sell gold at a price of 157, and later the gold price drops to 150, you will see a nominal loss of 7 yuan. In order to prevent the gold price from continuing to decline and causing greater losses, I sold gold at the price level of 150 and ended the exposure with a loss of 7 yuan. Sometimes traders refuse to accept losses and insist on waiting, hoping that the price of gold will turn back. In this way, they will suffer huge losses when the price of gold keeps falling. The timing of "profit" is more difficult to grasp. After establishing a position, when the price of gold has developed in a direction favorable to you. You can make a profit by closing the market. For example, you buy gold at 145 yuan; when the gold price rises to 150 yuan, you have a profit of 5 yuan, so you sell the gold and make a profit. It is very important to grasp the opportunity to make profits. If the price is closed too early, the profit will not be much; if the price is closed too late, the opportunity may be delayed, and the gold price trend will reverse, with no profit but loss. 2. "Pyramid" overweighting The meaning of "pyramid" overweighting is: after buying gold for the first time, the price of gold rises. Seeing that the investment is correct, if you want to increase your investment, you should follow the principle of "the amount added each time is less than the last time". In this way, the number of incremental purchases will become less and less, just like a "pyramid". Because the higher the price, the greater the possibility of approaching the top of the rise and the greater the risk. 3. Buy (sell) when there are rumors and sell (buy) when the facts are real The gold market, like stocks, often circulates some news or even rumors. Some news turns out to be true later, and some news turns out to be nothing more than rumors. What traders do is buy as soon as they hear good news and sell as soon as the news is confirmed. Vice versa, when bad news breaks, sell immediately and buy back as soon as the news is confirmed. If you don't trade quickly enough, you may incur losses due to market changes. 4. Don’t increase your bet when you are losing money. After buying or selling gold, when the market suddenly advances in the opposite direction, some people will want to add more money, which is very dangerous. For example, when the price of gold continues to rise for a period of time, traders chase the high price and buy the currency. Suddenly the market reversed and plummeted downwards. Seeing that the traders were losing money, they wanted to add more orders at a low price. In an attempt to offset the gold price of the first order, and when the gold price rebounds, the two orders will be closed together to avoid losses. Be especially careful with this overweighting approach. If the gold price has been rising for a period of time, what you bought may be a "top". If the more it falls, the more you buy, and you continue to increase your investment, but the gold price never turns back, then the result will undoubtedly be a vicious loss. 5. Do not participate in unclear market activities When you feel that the trend of the gold market is not clear enough and you lack confidence, it is better not to enter the market. Otherwise it is easy to make wrong judgments. 6. Don’t blindly pursue integer points In gold investment, sometimes things go wrong in order to compete for a few points. After establishing a position, some people set a profit target for themselves, such as earning 200 US dollars, etc. They are always waiting for this moment to come. Sometimes the price has already It was close to the target, and the opportunity was very good, but it was still a few points short of reaching the target. It could have been a flat profit, but due to the original target, the best price was missed while waiting, and the opportunity was missed. 7. Establish a position when the volatile market breaks through The market situation refers to the volatile market. A volatile market is a sign that buyers and sellers are evenly matched and temporarily in balance. Regardless of whether it is a shock in the process of rising or falling, once the shock ends, the market price will break through upward or downward, showing a breakthrough. This is a good time to enter the market and establish a position. If the market has been in a volatile market for a long time, the market price will break through. Opening a position has a greater chance of making a big profit.
TVC:USOIL
by Donald-king
2
Friday is approaching the weekly close, with cautious profit-tak According to the IEA's forecast, oil demand growth will decrease by 1 million barrels per day this year, to an estimated 1.3 million barrels per day. The IEA pointed out that factors such as the global economic slowdown, improved vehicle fuel efficiency and the increase in the number of electric vehicles will bring additional headwinds to oil use. In addition, the IEA has also lowered its supply forecast for 2024, predicting that oil supply this year will increase by 800,000 barrels per day to 102.9 million barrels per day. Continuous attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian oil refining facilities caused refinery shutdowns, which in turn caused Russia's seaborne fuel exports to fall by 1.5% month-on-month in February. Separately, U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories have fallen sharply, with gasoline prices at the pump expected to rise sharply in the coming weeks as widespread refinery shutdowns reduce supply ahead of the summer driving season. Although the IEA forecasts oil demand growth in 2024, it is still less optimistic than the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC kept its demand growth forecast unchanged this week, still nearly 1 million barrels per day behind the IEA. Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea have forced more trade to shift to longer routes, pushing the volume of oil at sea to nearly 1.9 billion barrels, the IEA said. Although some OPEC+ members have extended production cuts, the IEA predicts that oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries will continue to exceed demand expansion in 2024. The IEA said there will be a slight supply shortage this year, but tankers may see some relief as large volumes of offshore oil reach its final destination. However, dovish signals from central banks suggest that the economy is emerging from the downturn, but some major economic powers are still facing weak economic data. In addition, the sharp rise in the US dollar has also put pressure on crude oil prices. Economic downturns, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and long-term high interest rates will lead to reduced demand for crude oil. Oil prices continued to rise on Thursday, hitting a nearly four-month high as the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a tighter market in 2024 and raised its view on oil demand growth this year. Considering the possibility of profit-taking on Friday today, do not pursue long positions directly. You can participate in long positions later after the correction of crude oil stabilizes.
TVC:USOILLong
by Donald-king
Oil: Thoughts and Analysis. Resistance Continues!Today's focus: Oil Pattern – Resistance re-hold Support – $77.21, $76.30 Resistance – $78.85 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at Oil on the daily chart. Today, we have broken down how we see price and key levels. Once again, we have seen resistance re-hold and a new move lower after tests failed. Will we see a new move lower traders as we have seen in the past after buyers failed to break resistance? Or will we see the current trend hold and a new test and break of resistance eventuate? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSD
by Eightcap
OIL If oil prices push higher above 81$, they will prop the dollar in the medium term. Higher oil prices will influence inflation globally. Central Banks particularly the Fed might not cut rates until the later part of 2024. Fed Chair has already echoed these words citing that fed cuts are years away. Once oil adds onto that equation, we might see a possible rate hike in 2024. On the monthly charts, we have a consolidation around a strong demand level. On the weekly timeframe we do not have a clear direction though the market seems to be pushing higher to mitigate inefficiencies at the 107-115 levels. Dropping down to the 4 hour chart, we have a bullish bias targeting 77-90 levels. Change of character plus flip zones in addition to multiple break of structures inform our bullish bias.
TVC:USOILLong
by morrisgitau
Oil’s Tug-of-War: Iran Tensions vs. Evergrande Oil’s Tug-of-War: Iran Tensions vs. Evergrande On Wednesday, WTI crude futures dropped below $77 per barrel, undoing a 1.4% increase from the prior session, all while the U.S. readies itself to address a lethal attack on its troops in the Middle East. Perhaps traders are concerned more about the liquidation of China Evergrande, raising worries about the overall Chinese economy. There is fear that this uncertainty in China could lead to a decrease in demand for crude oil. However, there is a question of whether traders might be underestimating the potential for U.S. responses to the lethal attacks to escalate tensions or lead to a conflict with Iran. Despite President Biden expressing a desire to avoid a wider war in the Middle East, there are concerns about the unpredictable outcomes of such military actions. The Guardian predicts dire consequences if there is direct American military retaliation against Iran. This could prolong the Gaza conflict, trigger a Hezbollah attack on Israel, escalate conflicts in Iraq and Syria, and destabilize friendly regimes in Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf. Additionally, such actions could inadvertently assist China in pursuing its anti-democratic geopolitical ambitions and provide justification for Russia's aggression in Ukraine.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
🛢️📉 Crude Oil Breaks Down: Brace for Aggressive Drop 💥🔻$60/bIt looks like the 45-minute breakdown has occurred, which could lead to a bearish trend in both the weekly chart and the February monthly candle. Our swing trade has two targets: - The first target is $60. - The second target is $40. Please note that this is a long-term trade and we're making this decision quite early. Remember DXY is still very strong signalling that commodities in general are expected to be weak.
TVC:USOILShort
by blacklegend55
Crude oil wants to make money to read this article!The recent rise and fall of crude oil, as a whole is a big shock, although it is an upward trend, but not so clear, yesterday's daily line is very unexpected unexpectedly closed the negative line, the rise is not coherent, such a market we understand as shock, today's thinking of shock more treatment, today's crude oil attention yesterday back to the low point is the bottom of the upward trend of 1 hour, Strong support is near 73.10, these two positions are the positions of bull sniping, and the positions of pressure are 75.50 and 76.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by the_Hand_of_God
2
Oil traders overreacting to the wrong triggers? Oil traders overreacting to the wrong triggers? Divisions within OPEC have caused WTI crude to fall below $74 per barrel, ending a three-day climb for the commodity. Angola, which joined OPEC in 2007, said it is leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. This move raised concerns about OPEC's capacity to stabilize global prices, particularly amid disagreements over oil production quotas. However, operational challenges in Angola have hampered the country's ability to reach its sanctioned daily output of 1.5 million barrels; so maybe its departure is not hugely damaging to OPEC’s control, and the market is overreacting to the wrong thing here. Maybe, a more pressing issue could be the surging production in the United States. Recent data from the Energy Information Administration revealed a record-breaking daily output of 13.3 million barrels last week. For one, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the average oil price next year, reducing it by 12% due to ample production in the United States. In a note released last Sunday, Goldman revised its estimate, projecting an average of $81 per barrel in 2024, down from the previous estimate of $92 per barrel. Goldman Sachs anticipates it to reach its peak at $85 per barrel in June. Meanwhile, Citigroup offers a more cautious outlook by forecasting an average 2024 oil price of $75. This stands as the lowest projection among the major U.S. banks
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Oil Market Volatility due to Shipping Disruptions in the Red SeaIt has come to our attention that several shipping companies have temporarily halted their operations in the Red Sea, leading to a slight disruption in the transportation of oil. As you are aware, the Red Sea is a crucial shipping route for oil tankers, connecting major oil-producing regions to global markets. Any disruption in this route can have far-reaching implications, causing ripple effects throughout the oil market. The current situation demands cautious consideration of our trading strategies, particularly regarding long oil positions. While the exact reasons behind the shipping companies' decision to temporarily halt their operations in the Red Sea remain undisclosed, it is imperative that we closely monitor the situation and assess its potential impact on oil prices. The reduced availability of shipping routes may result in increased transportation costs, delays in deliveries, and potential supply constraints. These factors can contribute to short-term volatility and uncertainty in the oil market. In light of this development, I encourage you to exercise caution when considering long oil positions. It is crucial to stay informed about the latest updates regarding the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and their potential implications on oil supply and demand dynamics. We can better navigate the market and make informed trading decisions by remaining vigilant and responsive to these changes. To stay updated, I recommend closely monitoring reputable news sources, industry reports, and official statements from shipping companies and relevant authorities. Additionally, engaging in discussions with fellow traders and industry experts can provide valuable insights and perspectives. As always, I would like to emphasize the importance of conducting thorough research and analysis before making any trading decisions. While volatility can present opportunities, it also carries risks that need to be carefully evaluated. By maintaining a cautious approach and considering the potential consequences of the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, we can mitigate potential losses and capitalize on favorable market conditions. Should you have any questions or require further information, please do not hesitate to reach out to me via comment.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Oil's Next Move: Red Sea Conflict and $75? Oil's Next Move: Red Sea Conflict and $75? BP has suspended all oil and gas shipments through the Red Sea due to a rise in attacks on cargo ships and a deteriorating security situation attributed to Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen. This move has caused a 2% surge in oil prices, pushing WTI crude futures to $72.5 per barrel. This development signals the first indication of a spill-over effect in Israel-Palestine tensions that could impact global supply chains in 2024. Some shipping companies are now avoiding the Red Sea/Suez Canal, choosing to navigate around Africa instead. This shift will likely contribute to increased supply costs and delays in the coming weeks. There is a possibility of the U.S. military intervening to ensure the critical shipping route remains open. However, reports also suggest a potential near-term peace agreement between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, which could eliminate the need for U.S. intervention. Despite these uncertainties, the current abundance of oil supply might be constraining upward pressure on prices. The recent price increase could be attributed more to short covering, as money managers have consistently reduced their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions for the eleventh consecutive week, as reported by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday. From a technical standpoint, WTI is currently making an effort to secure a closure above the $72.5 threshold, and beyond that, it aims for the $73.5 level, where the 20-day Moving Average is situated. The subsequent resistance lies at a significant psychological milestone of $75. The geopolitical situation holds a crucial role. If tensions persist, there is a possibility of breaching the current levels and a subsequent upward movement toward the $80 benchmark.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
No bullish sign Crude oil fell below 70, with no bullish signals in the short to medium term. Oil prices have continued to fall since the second rebound in late October failed, and eventually formed a downward trend. Oil prices have hit the August low of 77.80. Oil prices showed a minor shock pattern around the lows, forming a flag relay pattern. Oil prices successfully fell below the lower edge of the flag pattern. Overall, oil prices have been weak, facing pressure from a variety of sources, including oversupply, doubts about planned production cuts, global economic uncertainty and weak gasoline demand. Investors will pay close attention to market dynamics to obtain signals on the future trend of oil prices. The focus this week will be Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls data. Oil prices are currently bearish, pay attention to 71.5 above.
VANTAGE:CL-OILShort
by Anthony-Ryan
TAKE PROFIT REACHED: Sasol Price hit the R184.52 level-now what?Rising Flag formed on Sasol, the price broke below and beautifully it went down on a strong trajectory and declination. The price remained below the 200MA confirming the bear market for the company. The price came down in a strong fashion takeing it to the first target of R184.52. The oil price also coincided with the Sasol price having the downtrend dominate taking investors and trader out and shifting to shorts and sells. The previous trend was down, and it was clear that the downside that came here was a DIstribution phase of the market environment... SO where to from here? Well, Down! There is no indication of upside or slowing down. And when there is I'll let you know.
JSE:SOLShort
by Timonrosso
3
Crude Oil Bullish Crude prices rose as a weaker dollar and optimism that major oil producers could extend ongoing production cuts at an OPEC+ meeting later this week boosted sentiment. Although the market is still paying close attention to the production of non-OPEC countries, various positive factors have provided positive external support for oil prices. Investors' expectations for the OPEC+ meeting have kept the market cautiously optimistic about future oil prices. Secondly, the combination of a weaker dollar, expectations of production cuts, and supply concerns have driven up oil prices. Judging from the current trend of crude oil, as long as it does not fall below 74.4, oil prices will give priority to rising to test the 79.3-80 area. We also need to pay attention to the key position 75.8.
VANTAGE:CL-OILLong
by Anthony-Ryan
1