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Crude oil review of last week and analysis of this week This week, crude oil received support at 74.9 and the overall rebound rebounded. The week ended with an overall decline of 4.18%, and finally closed at $77.40. From a fundamental point of view, the reasons for the continued fluctuation of crude oil prices this week are as follows: 1. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova: Russia will not give up its plan to increase liquefied natural gas production to 100 million tons per year because of US sanctions. 2. Three fuel producers said Russia will completely lift its ban on diesel and gasoline exports next week, sources said 3. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: The West’s green transformation has triggered a crisis in the global oil and natural gas market. Sanctions imposed on Russian oil have had a huge impact on global energy markets, causing costs to rise. Damage to the Nord Stream gas pipeline means Europe will no longer have access to cheap fuel. 4. After the United States eased sanctions on Venezuela, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA is negotiating with local and foreign oilfield companies to rent equipment and services to enable it to restore sluggish production; 5. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Before the end of December 2023, Russia will continue to voluntarily cut its oil supply and petroleum product exports by 300,000 barrels per day. The voluntary production reduction decision will be reviewed next month to consider further production cuts or increases in oil production; The above factors are responsible for the continued complex and volatile trend of crude oil this week. Overall, it is the promotion of various factors that has caused the price adjustment. It has brought about chain reactions in some markets, and crude oil supply problems have led to changes in crude oil prices; In terms of news, next week’s regular data API and EIA’s overall expectations are still more likely to be small and bullish. Due to the EIA system upgrade, the EIA will release two crude oil inventory reports at 23:30 on November 15 (including those not announced last week). (one copy), due to the current tense geopolitical environment, the overall probability is still small and bullish, and of course the possibility of repairs on both sides is not ruled out. In addition, we need to focus on the release of OPEC's monthly crude oil market report (the specific release time of the monthly report is to be determined, usually around 18-21 o'clock on November 13, Beijing time). The follow-up of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will affect the trend of the energy market. Keep an eye on this; The IEA releases its monthly crude oil market report. Fundamentals of supply and demand are weak. OPEC+ supply in October was higher than expected. The actual export volume of oil-producing countries increased by nearly 500,000 barrels per day. In addition, Russian oil exports rose to a nearly four-month high, with average daily oil exports of nearly 3.48 million barrels; in its monthly forecast, EIA lowered the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2023 by 300,000 barrels per day. Inventories have increased significantly. In the week ending November 3, crude oil inventories increased by 11.9 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 980,000 barrels. The marginal demand for crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that supply and demand will develop from a tight balance in the third quarter to a balanced supply and demand in the fourth quarter, putting crude oil prices under pressure. On the macro front, non-farm payrolls data have lowered U.S. economic growth expectations, and Federal Reserve officials have been hawkish recently. If the focus of late trading returns to the U.S. economy, which is expected to enter recession, it may suppress crude oil prices. Overall, the fundamental margin has become looser, inventories have increased more than expected, and price weakness may continue. From a technical point of view, this time it has continued to fluctuate and bearish since it opened high on the 20th, and this week has made a low, and the latest will be next Monday's low. After that, the overall trend will continue to be bullish until the 1st or 5th, so next week From the beginning, if 74.9 does not break below, the overall trend is to continue to be bullish, and what we need to do is to close the short and add long ideas next week. The previous judgment was to be bearish to about 74, and the target has been achieved now. From a structural point of view, it is a good choice to see the current rebound to about 82, so in the later period, all short positions below 83 will be closed and harvested. U-turn is mainly bullish. Later development will be further judged. More based on the intraday strategy,
TVC:USOILLong
by Krause_Philipp
Short continuation Crude oil broke straight down yesterday, with the high point at 81.0, the lowest point at 77.0, and the closing price at 77.11. The daily level includes a big negative line. The high price did not break the previous high, but the low price broke the previous low, showing a downward trend. The daily line of crude oil showed an N-shaped downward break pattern on the general trend, and the market outlook continued to be bearish. Crude oil shorts have broken through to open up space, and the short-term outlook is expected to continue. Short-term resistance levels focus on the 78.6-79.5 and 75.0-74.0 support levels.
VANTAGE:CL-OILShort
by Anthony-Ryan
Oil 4H midday updateThe oil price is showing additional positive trading to gradually approach our first awaited target at 84.12, waiting for this level to be breached to confirm the continued dominance of the upward trend and achieve additional gains up to 85.94. On the other hand, you should be aware that breaking 82.90 will stop the expected rise and force the price to decline again. The general trend expected for today:bullish Pivot Price: 82.90 Resistance Prices: 84.12 & 85.94 & 87.73 support price: 80.95 & 79.73 & 78.21
TVC:USOIL
by Evar_Mayi
The subsequent direction of crude oil The rebound of crude oil has strengthened again, and the 80.8 support node has begun to rebound. The current increase has reached 82.8, correcting yesterday's unilateral downward trend. However, if the current rise in crude oil cannot break this week's high of 85, it will be more likely to fall to a new low. The daily MA5 moving average and MA10 moving average moved down to 83.3 and 84.3 respectively. To put it simply, if crude oil cannot rise to around 85 again, it will fall below 80. Crude oil continues to be bearish in the short term. Stay tuned for continuous updates of posts.
VANTAGE:CL-OIL
by Anthony-Ryan
Crude Oil Thursday Trading Signals Through the analysis of the hourly chart of crude oil, we know that yesterday’s market rose first and then fell again in the evening and hit a new low at 80.30 below, stopping the decline and rebounding. We can clearly see from the attached picture below that there was a bottom-buying signal from a small institution below yesterday. It rebounded as expected. In early trading today, a low-priced signal from small institutions appeared again in the market. It is expected that it will continue to rebound. In the short term, we will focus on the pressure of moving averages No. 1 and 2, but we do not rule out further declines to the bottom during the session. The position of the No. 3 moving average is where we continue to think high, low and long. The specific suggestions are as follows: sell 82-81.8 tp80 buy 79.5-80 tp 81.6
TVC:USOILShort
by Krause_Philipp
Crude oil Wednesday strategy On Tuesday (October 31), under a series of negative impacts, WTI crude oil closed down 1.5% and broke through the key support of $82.00, indicating that the rise of WTI crude oil since the beginning of May is facing an end, and at the same time, downward space may be opened. Looking at the daily chart of crude oil, oil prices have stopped rising at a high of 95 and entered a correction state. Oil prices have experienced a two-week decline and adjustment. Oil prices have crossed below the moving average system, and the objective trend has entered sideways consolidation. The original flag-shaped relay pattern has been destroyed. Under the uncertain war and conflict, oil prices continue to reverse upward. The current mid-term trend of crude oil has entered a high-level consolidation pattern. If the situation escalates, it is not ruled out to review the rise again. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil continued its volatile downward trend and hit a new low of 81.40. The moving average system is arranged in a short position, and the short-term objective trend remains downward. In early trading, oil prices adjusted weakly near the lows, and short-term momentum prevailed. Pay attention to the resistance of the yellow downward trend line on oil prices in the chart. It is expected that crude oil will continue to decline in the short term during the day. interval category. It is expected that crude oil will continue to decline during the day and test the support position at the lower edge of the 81.70 weekly chart range. Trading signals: sell82.50 sl84.00, tp80.70. For more analysis, please join me
TVC:USOILShort
by Krause_Philipp
Crude oil trading strategy for Tuesday Through the analysis of the hourly chart of crude oil, we know that yesterday's market surged higher and fell back, showing that the main bulls were weak, and once reached the 81.80 line below to stop falling and rebound. From the picture below, we can clearly see that there has been a super main force buying the bottom signal. It is said that there will be a rebound in the short term. In the short term, we can focus on the pressure on Nos. 1 and 2. It is expected that the bottom area will continue to fluctuate and build a bottom. In the short term, in terms of operation, we will continue to think of going high and low and long. The specific suggestions are as follows: Crude oil is short at 83.90 and 84.90 respectively, with a stop loss of 70 points and a profit stop of 200 points; Crude oil is long at 82.10 and 79.80 respectively, with a stop loss of 70 points and a profit stop of 200 points. If you need more analysis and signals please join me
TVC:USOIL
by Krause_Philipp
Crude oil trading strategy Through the analysis of the hourly chart of crude oil, we know that the last trading day first fell, then rose and then fell. The pressure that reached the middle track of the Bollinger Band above was blocked and fell back. We can clearly see from the picture below that the main bulls continued to intervene in the bottom area of the market. , in the short term, there is currently a top-bottom-raising movement, which is very likely to break through the suppression of the middle track of the upper Bollinger Bands with heavy volume. In the short-term below, we focus on the support of the upward trend line. In terms of operation, we continue to think high, low and long, focusing on going long on dips. Specific suggestions are as follows: Crude oil buy84.20/83.20 TP 85.5-85.8 Crude oil SELL 85.8/87.5 TP 83.5-84.5
TVC:USOIL
by Krause_Philipp
Markets and technicals bearish Market analysis The supply and demand of crude oil has increased but the risk of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has not diminished. At present, oil transportation in the Middle East has not really been affected by this conflict, which is why oil prices have been experiencing corrections. Without further escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, crude oil markets were bearish. Based on technical analysis, crude oil is currently falling in a unilateral step-wise manner, bottoming out and rising after hitting daily support. The upper resistance level has moved down to 86.2. Pay attention to the support level of 82.5, which is still the watershed between bulls and bears in the market outlook. Overall analysis, crude oil has a bearish trend
VANTAGE:CL-OILShort
by Anthony-Ryan
Oil price tests supportThe oil price faced negative pressure yesterday to attack the 84.55 level, and we note that the price consolidated above this level to begin offering positive trades at the opening of the day, on its way to building an upward wave that we expect to mainly target the 86.50 and then 88.29 areas. Therefore, we continue to favor the upward trend for the coming period, supported by the positivity of the Stochastic indicator that is clearly visible now, keeping in mind that breaking 84.55 will stop the expected rise and put pressure on the price to conduct an additional downward correction, with its next target reaching 83.21 . Pivot Price: 84.55 Resistance Price: 86.50 & 88.29 & 90.70 Support price: 83.21 & 82.06 & 80.56 The general trend expected for today: bullish
TVC:USOIL
by Evar_Mayi
Crude oil will continue to fall The trend of crude oil is a band, with the top near 93. It is obviously still in a downward channel, especially the short trend on the four-hour line is more obvious. The K-line is running below the Bollinger Band, and the middle rail is the resistance level of crude oil. Shorts occupy the main body. . The support level below crude oil is around 81.2. At the same time, 77 and 72 are both target levels for shorts. 87.3 for crude oil is resistance and is also a short entry. If oil prices break above 87.3, this will halt the expected bearish trend and push oil prices back into the main bullish trend.
VANTAGE:CL-OILShort
by Anthony-Ryan
3
Oil Prices Plummet as Russia Boosts ExportsTh oil market that might present a potential opportunity for those who are interested in shorting oil. Please note that this opportunity should be approached with caution, as market dynamics can be unpredictable. Over the past few weeks, we have witnessed a significant drop in oil prices, primarily driven by Russia's decision to ramp up its oil exports. As a result, the global oil market is experiencing an increased supply, which has put downward pressure on prices. As of today, oil prices have dipped below the $84 mark, signaling a potential bearish trend. Considering the current situation, it may be prudent to explore the possibility of shorting oil. However, I must emphasize the importance of conducting thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. As experienced traders, you understand the importance of managing risks and being prepared for any potential market fluctuations. To assist you in evaluating this opportunity, I recommend closely monitoring Russia's export levels, as well as keeping a close eye on global oil demand and geopolitical developments. Additionally, staying informed about any significant announcements or policy changes from major oil-producing countries will be crucial. As always, it is essential to remember that the oil market can be highly volatile, and timing is of utmost importance. Therefore, I encourage you to exercise caution and carefully assess your risk appetite before engaging in any short positions. Should you decide to explore this opportunity further, I encourage you to consult with your financial advisor or seek professional guidance. They will be able to provide tailored advice based on your individual circumstances and investment goals. In conclusion, the recent drop in oil prices, driven by Russia's increased oil exports, presents a potential opportunity for those interested in shorting oil. However, I urge you to approach this opportunity with caution, conducting thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Remember to stay informed, manage your risks, and seek professional guidance if needed.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
US broadly eases Venezuela oil sanctions after election dealThe Biden administration on Wednesday broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in response to a deal reached between the government and opposition parties for the 2024 election - the most extensive rollback of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas. A new general license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department authorized OPEC member Venezuela, which had been under crushing sanctions since 2019, to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken welcomed President Nicolas Maduro's electoral concessions but said Washington has given him until the end of November to begin lifting bans on opposition presidential candidates and start releasing political prisoners and "wrongfully detained" Americans. The U.S. moves follow months of negotiations in which Washington had pressed Caracas for concrete actions toward democratic elections in return for lifting some - but not all - of the tough sanctions imposed under former U.S. President Donald Trump. It also represents a significant step in the increased engagement of President Joe Biden's administration with Maduro on issues ranging from energy to migration, a shift from Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against the socialist government.
OLong
by DEXWireNews
Why hasn’t crude oil skyrocketed? There has been a lot of fundamental news in crude oil trading recently, with hospitals and schools in Gaza being bombed, and Iran calling for an oil embargo. Why haven’t oil prices exploded? Three major factors indicate that oil prices are in a storm! 1. OPEC+ has no plans to hold a special meeting and take immediate action. Judging from OPEC+'s recent statements, it expects global oil demand to remain optimistic in the second half of the year (Saudi Aramco CEO predicts that global oil demand will reach 1,030 barrels per day in the second half of this year), and the oil market situation is balanced and reasonable. In addition, if there is a sustained oil supply shortage in the market, OPEC+ may even increase production in 2024. The oil market currently has 3 million barrels per day of spare production capacity. 2. The Venezuelan government and the opposition reached an agreement on the presidential election. On Wednesday (October 18), the U.S. Treasury Department issued a suspension order authorizing transactions with the Venezuelan oil and gas sector, which is valid for 6 months. Venezuela's crude oil exports exceeded 800,000 barrels per day in September, the second-highest monthly export rate since the beginning of the year, and its oil exports are expected to rise further. However, due to Venezuela’s backward infrastructure, the short-term impact on the oil supply side is expected to be limited. 3. U.S. bond yields hit multi-year highs. U.S. retail sales in September announced on Tuesday (October 17) were stronger than expected, showing that consumer enthusiasm is still high. JPMorgan Chase raised its third-quarter U.S. real GDP growth forecast from 3.5 % was revised up to 4.3%. The market is betting that the Fed's interest rate cut will be further postponed to the third quarter of next year. The 10-year U.S. bond yield exceeded 4.9% intraday on Wednesday (October 18), reaching a maximum of 4.934, just one step away from the 5% level. To sum up, the author believes that oil prices are already in a "storm". Although oil prices are in a "dilemma" in the short term, when more oil supply and demand factors are involved, this often means that a new round of unilateral market may be about to occur. It is foreseeable that if the situation in Gaza worsens further, it will further unite Arab countries. In addition, once Iran joins the conflict, the possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz cannot be ruled out, which may cause oil prices to hit the resistance above $100. On the contrary, if the situation in Gaza cools down, oil prices may give up the gains made in the past two weeks. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his last speech before the "silence period" in the early morning of Friday (October 20). As U.S. Treasury bond yields continue to surge and financial conditions tighten, it is expected that Powell will be more likely to release "dovish" remarks, which may be beneficial to short-term market sentiment. Emergencies based on conflicts in the Middle East may appear at any time, and crude oil is more likely to rise again in the short term. For short-term operations, enter quickly and exit quickly, and don’t be greedy for profit expansion. Short-term operation suggestions: OIL buy:86.5 -87 tp150pips sl 86 Since the crude oil prices in the delivery accounts are different, we need to buy within a reasonable range based on our own crude oil prices. Traders who need help in trading can join me, maybe you will find a good trading helper
FX:USOILLong
by Krause_Philipp
Oil price is recoveringOil price trades rebounded strongly after finding strong support formed by the 50 moving average in front of the recent negative trading, to exceed the 88.79 level and attempt to return to the main ascending channel again, which leads the price to achieve expected gains during the coming sessions, on its way to visit the 90.39 and then 91.56 levels. As major positive stations. Therefore, the upward bias will be likely for today, influenced by the double bottom pattern that appears on the chart, keeping in mind that trading below 88.79 again will put the price under negative pressure targeting testing the 88.79level initially.
TVC:USOILLong
by Evar_Mayi