USOIL continues to rise 85 today?
Prices have pulled back after hitting a four-month high of $83 yesterday on Monday. Russia has increased exports in response to Ukrainian attacks on the country's oil infrastructure. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has rejected the idea of phasing out fossil fuels, calling it a fantasy.
Looking at the daily chart of crude oil, oil prices have fluctuated for about two weeks based on the moving average system, and oil prices have once again tested the upper edge of the channel. The two big positive lines show strong upward momentum, and it is expected that the mid-term rise will open up room for growth after adjustments within the week.
Crude oil (1H) continues to trend higher and continues to hit new highs. The moving average system maintains a bullish arrangement and is supported by the 5-day moving average. The short-term objective trend is upward. Oil prices have adjusted slightly from high levels. It is expected that crude oil will continue to fluctuate upward in the short term during the day. Pay attention to the short-term support effect of 81.5.
Oilshort
Crude oil continues to strengthen.How to tradeThe hourly trend of crude oil began to rise around the opening. In the short term, we will pay attention to the pressure zone around 82.5, where there may be a slight adjustment.
I was bullish on crude oil last week. It rebounded slightly after the market opened. Don’t chase higher. You can go short near the pressure level. After adjustment, you can go long.
Crude oil fluctuates upward
The daily K-line of crude oil continues to run above the short-term moving average and continues to maintain a high and strong trend. There is currently no particularly obvious trend in the 4-hour trend. After yesterday's adjustment, it is expected that there will be a rebound trend in the short term. In the small-level cycle trend, after continuous narrow range fluctuations, the technical form began to gradually recover, the K line began to slowly stand on the short-term moving average, and the short-term trend tends to continue to rebound. long-term trends.
Today’s Profitable Trading Signals for Crude Oil
Hello everyone. At present, crude oil continues to fluctuate at a high level on the daily trend, and the short-term moving average is basically in a flat state, tending to continue to maintain a relatively volatile trend in the short term. Currently, the 4-hour trend continues to fluctuate at a low level, and the K line continues to be under pressure. The short-term moving average maintains a slightly weaker trend. The bottom rebound after the U.S. market yesterday has continued, and the current range on the hourly level has been compressed very little. The current resistance is around 81, forming a short-term downward trend. So today we rebound and need to sell
WTI H1 / Opportunity for a Short Trade 💲Hello Traders!
I see a good opportunity to execute a short trade on WTI H1. I expect the BOSS at the price of 77.80 to be taken, and in case of retracement, I will look for a short trade entry.
Traders, if my proposal resonates with you or if you hold a divergent viewpoint regarding this trade, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. I welcome the opportunity to hear your perspectives.
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WTI H1 / POTENTIAL LONG ENTRY / OIL IS GOING BULLISH 🛢Hello Traders!
This is my forecast for WTI H1. I see another retracement from the bullish channel, considering this an opportunity to execute a long entry until the resistance level and above the Previous Day's High.
If confirmed, I will execute a long entry.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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7 Diamnesion Analysis for OIL 😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H4
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish
🟢 Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS)
🟢 Swing Move: Corrective move is filled POi, now impulsive is starting
🟢 Inducement: Done
🟢 Pull Back: 1st and deep
🟢 Internal Structure: Bearish
🟢 Ext OB: Mitigated
🟢 Supply, Distribution, Rejection: Trendline broke, trend line Breakout/CIP done
🟢 Time Frame Confluence: Daily, H4
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS: Reversal, Rounding Patterns, Double top
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: Record Session count observed in internal leg, Shrinking long wick end, Change in guard engulf, Momentum: strict engulfing with bearish strength, Tower top also observed
3️⃣ Volume
🟢 Fixed Range: In this area, bears are already strong
🟢 No Volume during correction
4️⃣ Momentum RSI
🟢 Zone: Bearish sideways
🟢 Range shift: Bullish to sideways properly
🟢 Overbought rejections count: 2
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands
🟢 Middle band: Price below the middle band with a ninja candle bearish closing
🟢 Contraction: Fully
🟢 Two Band Punchers: Observed in the upper band
6️⃣ Strength According to ROC
🟢 Values: USD -3.05, OIL is -15
7️⃣ Sentiment
According to all sentiments, oil prices are under pressure
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ Current move: Impulsive
✔ Support Resistance Base: Supply area rejection
☑️ Candles Behavior: RSC, bearish Momentum
☑️ FIB Trigger event: Done
☑️ Trendline breakout: Done
💡 Decision: Sell at opening
🚀 Entry: 73.45
✋ Stop Loss: 76.87
🎯 Take Profit: 62.55
2nd If Internal Structure Changes also Exit 3rd Trendline Breakout, Fomo
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3.5
🕛 Expected Duration: 15 days
SUMMARY: The analysis suggests a bearish outlook, supported by structural, candlestick, and volume indications. Momentum in RSI and Bollinger Bands also align with the bearish stance. The decision is to sell at the opening with specific entry, stop loss, and take profit levels, considering potential internal structure changes and trendline breakouts.
Oil is under pressure from bearsHi, According to my analysis of the oil market, it seems to be in a very negative state. We notice that the market is in a downtrend with a descending channel forming as shown in the analysis. The price also rebounded from the demand block area at the 76 level, indicating further decline in the coming days. Good luck to everyone.
WTI H2 / RETRACEMENT FROM THE OB, SHORT TRADE OPPORTUNITY 📉🛢Hello Traders!
As expected, we can see a retracement of the OIL H2 from the resistance level, and also, from the OB at the price of 74.900. I see this retracement as a good signal of bearish domination, representing a good opportunity to execute a short trade.
Treaders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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WTI H4 / A KEY LEVEL FOR OIL 🛢📊Hello Traders!
This is my perspective on WTI H4. OIL is currently at a key level, and I'm waiting for a confirmation. At the moment, OIL is in a bearish channel pattern and has now reached the resistance level. I anticipate a move until the OB from the price of 78.200. Additionally, there is a significant possibility of a strong bearish move down to the price of 65.000. If there is confirmation of a retracement from the resistance level, I will execute a short trade.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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Oil traders overreacting to the wrong triggers? Oil traders overreacting to the wrong triggers?
Divisions within OPEC have caused WTI crude to fall below $74 per barrel, ending a three-day climb for the commodity.
Angola, which joined OPEC in 2007, said it is leaving the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. This move raised concerns about OPEC's capacity to stabilize global prices, particularly amid disagreements over oil production quotas.
However, operational challenges in Angola have hampered the country's ability to reach its sanctioned daily output of 1.5 million barrels; so maybe its departure is not hugely damaging to OPEC’s control, and the market is overreacting to the wrong thing here.
Maybe, a more pressing issue could be the surging production in the United States. Recent data from the Energy Information Administration revealed a record-breaking daily output of 13.3 million barrels last week.
For one, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the average oil price next year, reducing it by 12% due to ample production in the United States. In a note released last Sunday, Goldman revised its estimate, projecting an average of $81 per barrel in 2024, down from the previous estimate of $92 per barrel. Goldman Sachs anticipates it to reach its peak at $85 per barrel in June.
Meanwhile, Citigroup offers a more cautious outlook by forecasting an average 2024 oil price of $75. This stands as the lowest projection among the major U.S. banks
Oil's Next Move: Red Sea Conflict and $75? Oil's Next Move: Red Sea Conflict and $75?
BP has suspended all oil and gas shipments through the Red Sea due to a rise in attacks on cargo ships and a deteriorating security situation attributed to Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen. This move has caused a 2% surge in oil prices, pushing WTI crude futures to $72.5 per barrel.
This development signals the first indication of a spill-over effect in Israel-Palestine tensions that could impact global supply chains in 2024. Some shipping companies are now avoiding the Red Sea/Suez Canal, choosing to navigate around Africa instead. This shift will likely contribute to increased supply costs and delays in the coming weeks.
There is a possibility of the U.S. military intervening to ensure the critical shipping route remains open. However, reports also suggest a potential near-term peace agreement between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, which could eliminate the need for U.S. intervention.
Despite these uncertainties, the current abundance of oil supply might be constraining upward pressure on prices. The recent price increase could be attributed more to short covering, as money managers have consistently reduced their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions for the eleventh consecutive week, as reported by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday.
From a technical standpoint, WTI is currently making an effort to secure a closure above the $72.5 threshold, and beyond that, it aims for the $73.5 level, where the 20-day Moving Average is situated. The subsequent resistance lies at a significant psychological milestone of $75. The geopolitical situation holds a crucial role. If tensions persist, there is a possibility of breaching the current levels and a subsequent upward movement toward the $80 benchmark.
WTI / OIL H4 Possible LONG Trade. 📈 ✅Hello Traders!
This is my view related to WTI / OIL H4. As you can see, OIL is in a very interesting phase, It took liquidity, set a new daily high, react from the OB (D1), and I expect a bullish movement until the level of 78.000.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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Are OPEC+ voluntary cuts enough to support oil prices?After the latest OPEC+ meeting, the price of WTI crude oil dropped more than 2% to $75 per barrel, ending a two-day win streak.
During the meeting, OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production early next year by almost 2 million barrels per day (bpd). This decision was spurred by worries about having too much oil in the market coinciding with the end of Saudi Arabia's voluntary 1 million bpd cut.
Saudi Arabia said it would continue its cut until at least the first quarter of 2024. Russia also extended its cut to 500,000 bpd for the first quarter. Iraq agreed to reduce output by 211,000 bpd, and UAE pledged to cut 160,000 bpd in the first quarter.
However, OPEC+ also invited Brazil to join the group. Brazil said they plan to join in January and increase their daily oil output to 3.8 million barrels, countering the other members pledges to cut production and support prices.
OIL SELLHello, according to my analysis of the oil market. We notice that the market formed a triangle pattern and penetrated the pattern. But it was a bullish breakout. But it rebounded from a very important area, which is the 78 resistance level. A large red candle also formed, indicating strength in the sellers. Good luck to everyone.
7 Dimension Analysis For OIL🕛 TOPDOWN Analysis - Monthly Bullish Structure, Weekly Bearish Inducement
Overview: The monthly market structure maintains a bullish stance, holding key supports. On the weekly chart, a valid low was established, accompanied by a strong bearish inducement. While a demand flip occurred, the overall trend remains bearish, marked by a record session count and inside candle price action. The daily time frame reveals a bearish swing structure with impulsive moves, indicating potential further downside.
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: Daily
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish
🟢 Structure Behavior: ChoCh
🟢 Swing Move: Impulsive
🟢 Inducement: Suggests potential further downward movement.
🟢 Pull Back: No significant pullback observed.
🟢 Resistance Zones: Market encounters resistance at every supply zone post- ChoCh, forming a bearish build-up, indicating potential future downside. No traps observed.
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS
Continuation
Symmetric Triangle
Shakeout Continuation
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS
Notable Observations:
Momentum candles with Fake out/FOMO.
Tweezer at the internal move top.
Inside candles in the last three days.
3️⃣ Volume: Significant volumes observed at the beginning of the move.
4️⃣ Momentum RSI:
🟢 RSI Below 40: Indicates a super bearish zone with high selling pressure.
🟢 Range Shift: Shifted sideways to bearish, suggesting ongoing bearish activity.
🟢 Divergence: Hidden bearish divergence present.
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 Middle Band Resistance: Strong rejection observed.
🟢 Head fake: At the top of the move, indicating a potential deep bearish move.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H1
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ Current Move: Impulsive Bearish
✔ Support Resistance Base: Takes resistance at a significant level.
☑️ Candles Behavior: Extremely volatile bearish momentum.
☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Confirmed.
☑️ Final Comments: Sell at the open.
💡 Decision: Sell
🚀 Entry: 75.22
✋ Stop Loss: 78.04
🎯 Take Profit: 68.07, 2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Exit on a trendline breakout or FOMO.
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3.5
🕛 Expected Duration: 7 days
SUMMARY: The analysis reveals a monthly bullish structure but a weekly bearish inducement. The daily swing structure is bearish with an ongoing impulsive bearish move. Recognized patterns include a symmetric triangle and shakeout continuation. Critical levels, candle patterns, and trendline breakouts were considered for the entry decision. The suggestion is to sell at the open, with detailed entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, presenting a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3.5, and an expected duration of 7 days.
WTI Price Stability Around $75 Amid OPEC+ Cut ExpectationsWestern Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark crude oil, is currently trading near $75.05 as of Tuesday. WTI prices show modest gains, supported by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will extend oil production cuts in the upcoming Thursday meeting.
Amid the recent oil price slump, analysts predict that OPEC+ might consider extending or deepening production cuts into the next year. Saudi Arabia, the world's major oil exporter, is expected to prolong its supply cuts by an additional 1 million barrels per day into the next year, while Russia may contemplate further supply reductions of 300,000 barrels per day. If OPEC+ decides on deeper production cuts next year, it could restrain the downward momentum of WTI prices.
Furthermore, China is set to release National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Thursday. Better-than-expected data might uplift WTI prices, considering China's significant role as the world's leading producer and consumer of oil.
On the flip side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a mild surplus in crude oil production by 2024, even with OPEC+ extending cuts into the following year. Additionally, robust production from non-OPEC countries like the U.S. could contribute to price pressure.
Traders in the oil market will closely monitor U.S. growth figures on Wednesday, with the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 expected to rise by 5%, up from the previous 4.9%. On Thursday, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and China's NBS PMI data will be announced. The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend will be crucial for oil traders, as these events could significantly impact WTI prices in USD. Oil traders will interpret signals from the data and explore trading opportunities around WTI prices.
Oil Continues to Decline Ahead of OPEC MeetingAs the global demand for oil continues to decline, coupled with the upcoming OPEC meeting, it is crucial to approach this situation with caution and strategic planning.
Over the past few months, we have witnessed a steady decline in oil prices, primarily driven by various factors such as geopolitical tensions and a shift towards renewable energy sources. This downward trend has created a potential opening for traders who are keen on shorting oil.
The upcoming OPEC meeting adds an additional layer of complexity to the situation. As market participants eagerly await the decisions and actions of major oil-producing nations, it is essential to stay informed and remain adaptable to potential market fluctuations.
While the opportunity to short oil may seem enticing, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent risks and volatility associated with this trade. As experienced traders, you understand the importance of conducting thorough research, analyzing market trends, and implementing risk management strategies.
To maximize your chances of success, I encourage you to consider the following steps:
1. Stay updated: Continuously monitor the latest news and developments surrounding the oil market and the upcoming OPEC meeting. This will help you identify potential catalysts that may impact oil prices.
2. Utilize technical analysis: Leverage technical indicators and charts to identify key support and resistance levels, as well as potential reversal patterns. This will assist you in timing your trades effectively.
3. Implement risk management: Set clear stop-loss orders and determine your acceptable risk levels. This will help protect your capital and ensure you have a disciplined approach to trading.
4. Diversify your portfolio: Consider spreading your risk by exploring other trading opportunities within different sectors or asset classes. This will help mitigate potential losses and increase your chances of overall profitability.
Remember, trading oil requires a cautious approach and a keen eye for market trends. While the current downtrend presents an opportunity, it is crucial to remain vigilant and adapt your strategies as new information emerges.
Should you require any further assistance or have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out in the comments. . I am here to provide the necessary guidance and support to help you navigate this volatile market.
sell Oil now!The light crude oil futures market, with a current daily price of $73.18, is positioned below the 50-day moving average of $84.78, indicating a bearish trend in the short term. It’s also below the 200-day moving average of $78.11, reinforcing this bearish sentiment.
The price hovers above the minor support level of $72.48 and is significantly above the main support at $66.85, suggesting that there might be some level of buying interest preventing a further drop.
The proximity to the minor resistance at $77.43 could indicate potential challenges in upward price movements.
Considering these technical indicators, the market sentiment leans towards bearish, with room for fluctuations near the minor support and resistance levels.
Oil Rebounds Despite Weak Demand, OPEC's Optimism DimsOil prices are rebounding following a recent dip, sparked by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) announcement earlier this week, contrasting events from Monday. Monday's decline was largely influenced by the OPEC+ monthly report, hinting at potential price increases. However, sustained crude oil recovery requires further momentum, with a significant catalyst expected by the end of November when OPEC+ convenes to forecast the first half of 2024, potentially indicating further supply cuts.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar (USD) is weakening as recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports show declines across all segments, both Core and Headline. This convinces traders that the Fed has likely completed interest rate hikes and may even prioritize faster rate cuts. The higher crude oil prices in response to this reversal, combined with a weaker U.S. Dollar, are driving up black gold prices. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil is trading at $78.33 per barrel, and Brent crude is at $82.87 per barrel.