USOIL Short Trade - Intraday & Swing *Double Set Up* US Oil rejecting the key resistance zone at $57.50 which is a 3rd touch at this zone. Nice deceleration on the 1hr timeframe
By simply buying low and selling high, this set up seems pretty simple. We did see a 4hr lower low on Friday so excluding any complications, Oil may continue to drop off in to the low 50's over the week.
Stop loss is comfortably above the previous highs and out of this resistance zone.
Oilshort
US Oil - Intraday Short *Trendline & Liquidity Zone Trade*I still have a bearish bias on US Oil with price failing to break higher than its current level for the past few weeks.
Last Friday we saw heavy bearish momentum create new 4hr lows before sharply reversing in the afternoon/evening of the UK GMT timezones.
Price is now retesting a longer term broken trendline and is back in my liquidity zone marked on by the shaded area. As you can see, price has retested and dropped from this area multiple times.
LONG USOIL approaching support , Prepare For A BounceUSOIL is approaching our first support at 54.96 (horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ) where a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 56.71 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal overlap resistance).
Stochastic (89,5,3) is approaching support and we might see a corresponding bounce in price above this level.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
LONG USOIL approaching support , Prepare For A Bouncejust now
USOIL is approaching our first support at 54.96 (horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ) where a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 56.71 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal overlap resistance).
Stochastic (89,5,3) is approaching support and we might see a corresponding bounce in price above this level.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
CLJ2019's Anticipated Range This is a 10H chart of CLJ2019, which will be trading until it expires the 20th of March. The Gann Box tool is squared to the high & low range of this contract; from the 7601 peak to the 4300 bottom. There are also the 45º and 15º angle lines coming from various highs and/or lows. As shown in the chart, the oil price is currently approaching the 150 day EMA, it has increased from the 4300 low by a third and the 1/3rd area coincides with 150 day EMA.., and all this is happening after it saw a record breaking plunge of ≈45% from its 7601 peak. Traders who held short risk exposure through that 33%+ rise from the low are likely to take profits at these levels. The reducing of short risk exposure is anticipated to manifest itself in a minor pullback of 200+ ticks at least. Shorting the pops seems to be the reasonable approach from here. The risk factor for short entries is $1.3K (130 ticks) per contract with a potential of 2R return for risk.
SHORT USDOIL approaching resistance, potential drop!Feb 21
USOIL is approaching our first resistance at 59.85(horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension , 50%Fibonacci retracement) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 55.81(23.6% Fibonacci retracement , Horizontal pullback support)
Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
LONG Is WTI Oil gearing for further upside? $57.50 in sightWTI Oil has staged an impressive rebound in recent weeks with prices currently trading near a three-month high above $56.50 as of writing. The inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily charts signal further upside with the first key point of interest at $57.50. A solid breakout above this level is likely to open a path towards $60.00 in the medium term. Intraday traders will be concerned with how prices behave around the neckline which is coincidentally around $56.30 - $56.50. This bullish setup remains valid as long as prices are able to keep above $54.00.
Oppurtnuity to short WTI Oil Brent crude oil futures are holding slightly below the three-month high of 64.80 after the aggressive bullish run above the ascending sloping channel.
Crude Oil has hit its full support, with a successful up trend broken, we can now expect OIL to go down back to the 53.00 region which will lead and break to the 52.00 region.
OIl market: the current state and perspectives in 20192019 the oil market meets in a kind of depressive state. Over the past two to three months oil prices declined more than 30%, so investors’ sentiment consequently is rather gloomy.
A rather symptomatic phenomenon was the massive decrease in forecasts by analysts at the very beginning of 2019. For example, Societe Generale Bank lowered the price forecast for WTI in 2019 by $9 to $57.25 per barrel, that is, by 8.6%. Analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs lowered their forecast for Brent by 11%, and for WTI - by 14%.
Causes of bearish sentiment
Two key factors, which stimulate sales in the oil market, can be distinguished. Firs one refers to demand, the second one - to supply in the oil market.
Talking about oil demand in 2019, the question arose about prospects of economic growth generally in the world, and prospects look bad. Accordingly, the slowdown of the world economy would provoke the decline of oil demand. Last economic data from China, which has been an engine of the global economy for many years, show that the Chinese economy is slowing down.
Do not either forget about global changes in the world - the growth of the market of electric vehicles and sharp and active development of alternative energy. All these has its negative influence on the demand in the oil market.
As for supply in the oil market, the key parties of the oil market (Russia, USA, and Saudi Arabia) produce the oil on the maximal historical levels. The US shales are in excellent shape, as evidenced by both the overall record volumes of oil production and export from the USA and the number of active drilling rigs. It is also significant to solve the infrastructure problem in the United States (pipelines have reached maximum performance and cannot pass more oil), which will allow increasing the volume of oil production in the United States much more.
Besides, massive long-standing projects in Brazil and Canada allow precisely in 2019 considerably to build up the oil production in these countries.
It means the supply in the oil market increases, and it has a defective impact on the oil quotations.
What can make a difference
The new OPEC+, in theory, can lead to a change in oil market conditions in 2019. Recall the countries have agreed to reduce oil production by 1.2 million barrels. And this is enough volume to change the balance in the oil market in favor of buyers.
Negotiations between the USA and China are able to bury the trading war hatchet between countries, what may well lead to the improvement of the perspective of the economic growth not only in China and the US but in the whole world. This, in turn, will provoke an increase in oil demand and oil prices consequently.
Besides, technically, the correction in the oil market is already overdue.
Last but not least, in long- and mid-term perspective oil’s sales look the most preferred. But short-term dynamics will be determined by current market sentiment, which so far is more likely on the buyers' side.
US Oil – Long Term DOWNThis is a wild guess, and I cannot be sure the same pattern will follow. It is for educational only and please feel free to share your opinion and thoughts, whether you agree or disagree with this observation.
In 2008, oil fell from its all-time high from @ $144 to $36 (~75%), and then oil dropped again in 2014 from $107 to $29 (~73%). If the previous two drops are indicators of this one, we can assume oil going to $20, which is about 70% of its recent high and another 55% drop from current level. This cycle should complete within in the next 4-6 months.
USOIL Possible Bear Continuation Targets USOIL is being well supplied after pulling back to the grand 45 degree line coming down from the top. If 5000-5050 area fails, the bear case becomes more relevant. Assuming pre mortem conditions, the inventory report turning this around and supply being dried up by incoming new demand, it is reasonable to look for entry opportunities on the lower timeframes. It's better to get out after being proven wrong shortly after entry than hold the bag for who knows how long.
Another Pullback Formation On USOIL USOIL is going through a pullback after another record bearish impulse move. Short covering and some new buyer interest is expected to take this to the 15 degrees angle lines coming from the highlighted lows. Upon meeting those angle lines, trend continuation sellers might want to give it another try towards the $50 area.