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Visualising victory for Ukraine and the oil pricesBack in February, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, a victory for Kyiv would have been almost impossible to imagine. It's the classic David and Goliath. Recent developments on the battlefront, however, are starting to paint a different picture, showing the possibility of Ukraine ending the conflict with a win. On paper, the war is just between Ukraine and Russia. Its implications, on the other hand, knew no bounds and it demanded to be felt across the globe bringing about economic uncertainties and causing supply chain disruptions. While it did not start the energy crisis, the invasion surely made the situation worse. Nearly seven months into the war, people are hoping it will be over soon. Along with these hopes is the dream that the underdog (and innocent party) will claim the victory. Win for Ukraine Earlier in September, Ukrainian forces managed to recapture swaths of lands in the country's northeast that a few months earlier have been taken over by Russia. Considering this and the possibility that China's tacit support for Russia could be waning, it seems like momentum is on the side of Ukraine. If that indeed happens, it could mean good things not just for Ukraine but probably for the rest of Europe. Orysia Lutsevych, in an opinion piece for The Guardian, wrote that a victory for Ukraine is vital for Europe to be able to live in peace and work collectively to meet global challenges. Considering the support that a majority of the remainder of Europe and countries in other parts of the world have thrown behind Ukraine, defeat would further entice Russia to flout international law and the sovereignty of other nations. "The restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity and, ultimately, peace will mean the collapse of Putinism as a doctrine and an end to Russian claims to territorial dominance elsewhere in eastern Europe and Central Asia," Lutsevych added. On the other hand, a victory for Russia would validate the country's aggressiveness and fuel its desire to further expand its territory. Russia uses newly conquered territories to stage further conflicts and a Ukraine victory would prevent that from happening. Aside from preventing future wars, a victory for Ukraine is also expected to reduce the risk of a mass famine and even restore the stability of economies that have been affected by the sanctions imposed on Russia for instigating the conflict. What happens to oil when Ukraine wins the war? When the war started, the price of oil surged past the $130 per barrel mark for the first time since 2008. The Brent benchmark neared the record high of $147 in March exacerbated by the conflict. Almost seven months into the war, the prices of oil somehow stabilized and is now at ~$90 per barrel for Brent crude as concerns about weaker economic growth and demand drag prices down. European countries have also been forced to impose price caps on electricity and oil and come up with new taxes for energy companies in order to support their people amid the ongoing energy crisis in the region. Many countries have also started finding alternative energy sources to compensate for the supply cut off from Russia. Russia has been using the energy crisis as another ploy in its grand battle scheme. Earlier in September, Vladimir Putin said: "We will not supply anything at all if it is contrary to our interests. No gas, no oil, no coal, no fuel oil, nothing." The potential impacts to the energy market of a Ukraine victory would depend on how Russia will take its defeat. Will it be a gracious loser and choose to capitalize on rebuilding bridges with countries that have been beneficiaries of its supply or a petty loser that will continue to lock in supply for it to use and to sell to select buyers who are probably allies and supporters?
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by BlackBull_Markets
OIL target reached. UPDATEOIL showed one more bos, and now we have a new price expansion to the downside. Please check the linked ideas for better context. 📉 Text marks: 🔹 IL = impulse leg. Inside of IL we can usually see inside structure, which is secondary in nature, like a market noise, unless you trade it on LTF, as it’s own IL. 🔹 ph, pl = protected high or low, which holds current structural impulse. 🔹 bos = break of structure . Based on candle body close below/above previous structural impulse. 🔹 rsz, rdz = refined supply and demand zones. Specific areas to look for LTF confirmations. They are manipulative up-moves before real down moves, or vice versa. Strong hands (the Composite Man, as Wyckoff called it) often come back to such zones to close their manipulative orders at breakeven, before pushing prices further. 🔹 if confirmed = entry only if there's a shift of structure on lower TF inside of rsz or rdz, or any other type of backtested and approved confirmation. 🔹 liq target = liquidity target: next profit taking levels for strong hands, our main targets based on current price action. ☝️Disclaimer: ALL ideas here are for EDUCATIONAL and MARKETING purposes only, not financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. I share my view on the market and search for like-minded traders. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as trading in a simulated environment. 👉I believe that "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. In reality, a trader is right only when he executes the system and follows his rules, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live, then refine until perfection. 🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀 💬Send your comments and questions below, and share your ideas and charts, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
TVC:USOILShort
by Yelli_trades
15
BRENT CRUDE OIL BEARISH PREDICTIONSPrices of petroleum are declining due to increased output by OPEC and United States and weakening demand by the Chinese economy. RSI index of the Daily graph of BRENT is below the neutral line of 50, and MACD histogram, although still above 0 line, is declining. If the price keeps falling, it might test its previous support at 91.50 and if it breaks it, it might target levels of 84. Alternatively, it might try to reach levels of 105.5 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by legacyFXofficial
USOIL Intraday longUSOIL/ US Crude has been pulling back to our resistance. We will first catch the bullish move on the hourly timeframe and wait for aa bearish confirmation once our ABCD pattern is complete. Once we have the confirmation, we will short the XTIUSD. Please sharee your thoughts. Disclaimer NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
BLACKBULL:USOIL.FLong
by Mezzoforte_Privilege
USOIL Short: Shooting Star at 4hr Resistance LevelTrend: The overall trend of the chart is downwards. Candle Sticks: Formation of shooting start at the LH of the chart. Support & Resistance: Price is testing the 4he resistance area by making an LH with a shooting star. Reasoning: The formation of a shooting star at the LH of the 4hr resistance area strongly indicate the price will go down. SL: Place at the previous LH of the chart. TP1, TP2, TP3: Placed according to the Fibonacci retracement levels.
TVC:USOILShort
by sanasaeed
5
WTICOUSD (RESISTANCE ZONE)Hey guys! How are you guys doing! O hope from the previous analysis, the daily fake out from DAILY timeframe got you guys a confirmation and brought toward more downside. What I'm seeing now is that it shall go back and test 110.70 zone and probably bring more downside to 105, 103 and possibly to 95 range. However, shall it break the resistance zone with a strong candle, it will be bring us to a greater height. As oil is a very volatile commodity and can easily go up/down a few dollars so do trade with minimal risk and not overtrade! let me know how you guys think!
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by shiyishiyi
Caps on russian oil is likely to come Insider: G-7 talks with India and China on oil price brake positive G-7 talks with India and China on a plan to cap the price of Russian oil have been positive, according to an insider. The two buyer nations have incentives to comply, a person familiar with the discussions says. A cap on the price has not yet been set, he said. However, it would have to be high enough for Russia to continue producing anyway. Currently, Russian oil sells at discounts of between $30 and $40 per barrel (159 liters) compared to market prices of up to $120 per barrel. Source: Welt Zeitung What impact would the price cap have on prices in Germany and the other G7 countries? In the ideal case, oil prices would fall; in the less good case, at least they would not rise any further. However, precise forecasts are difficult to make. The petroleum industry association Fuels und Energie already explained in the discussion about the EU oil embargo that market and price developments depend on many factors, including the dollar exchange rate and decisions by the major producing countries. Source: n-tv Opinion: I see the price cooling down slowly rather than continuing to climb, probably going towards 70$ in the next 6-10 months. To force russia to sell all its oil below market price, will make most countries of the world (which are not part of G7) to buy it off for a small price, leading to an overall relaxation of the oil market price. Also OPEC is ramping up efforts to increase output for the next months! This is not an investment advise! Do your own research! This is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell oil shares and this is NOT a recommendation to short or to long oil!
TVC:UKOILShort
by Lobotto
1
OIL SHORT :(As I mentioned 10 months ago about the worst World Crisis of 2023. I wanted to share this analysis on the price of OIL and its derivatives, as well as gasoline, it will be affected and is being affected along with oil. There are many indicators that indicate the coming crisis of 2022-2023... This crisis, the worst of all, "The crisis of everything" creates a gigantic DOMINO effect. MASSIVE MONEY PRINTING, Inflation, Oil inflation, transport price rise, food price rise, real estate inflation and exorbitant prices, etc.... It's very simple: when the first "domino" falls and begins to push the rest (the bubble bursts), and I reach the "domino" of oil, there will be a SUPPLY SHOCK in Oil and its derivatives, obviously. People will not be able to afford the exorbitant and INFLATIONARY prices of Oil and derivatives. There will be no time nor will it be possible to reduce the SUPPLY in advance, because by reducing the SUPPLY at this moment, as there is a high level of demand right now. The price of oil and gasoline will rise shamelessly... It would be UNSUSTAINABLE and would produce new bubbles ("refilled with oil") distributed by all the oil companies, gas stations, and in turn throughout the world. Where they are, they WILL BURST IMMEDIATELY "when exposed to transportation traffic." I also wanted to talk to you about the Gas Stations and their arrangements with the Bank... Banks hold Oil as well as Gold and other financial assets. Imagine that a bank has a paper that says that it has $1B dollars in oil, and this oil was provided by a gas station and/or its relations and suppliers of this gasoline / oil. When the gas station goes BANKRUPT, the paper that the bank owned will become "Wet Paper"... Please think about it... The number of gas stations that can go bankrupt and the number of producers of oil and its derivatives that can be greatly affected. As you can see in the graph this is my analysis and I think that Oil will not be saved from this crisis... I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE OR A FINANCIAL ADVISOR, PLEASE DO YOUR OWN INVESTIGATION IF YOU WISH TO INVEST. Thank you very much for reading and a like will be appreciated ;)
TVC:USOILShort
by TheWaterBottle
Oil Short via Direxion's Inverse $DRIPI have entered a leveraged (2X) short in #oil, via Direxion's Inverse $DRIP ETF. NOTE: This post shows "LONG" because I have BOUGHT $DRIP; #Oil, as the asset class - I am viewing as a SHORT. Not much else to say, other than the #oil #selloff is underway after forming what I see as a double top (see WTICOUSD) and a good risk/reward entry to short. I will continue to provide updates on this one, and as usual, the chart will dictate how to manage the trade. You may recall, I bought oil, via Direxion's $GUSH ETF back in September 2021 (returning over 50%); I officially closed the oil-long ($GUSH) position in April 2022. Let’s see if the oil selloff translates at the gas pump. God Bless!
AMEX:DRIPLong
by ChiefMacro
2