Could OIL Slide to $60? a 5% Drop Might Be on the Table? Hey Realistic Traders!
Price action is weakening. Will USOIL find support or slide further?
Let’s Break It Down..
On the 4H timeframe, oil has formed a double top pattern followed by a neckline breakout, which is a classic sign of a potential shift from a bullish to a bearish trend.
This breakout was confirmed by a break below the bullish trendline, accompanied by consecutive bearish full-body candlesticks that reinforce the bearish momentum. Afterward, the price formed a bearish continuation pattern known as a rising wedge, which was followed by a breakdown.
The combination of bearish reversal and continuation pattern breakouts signals further downside movement and confirms the shift into a bearish trend.
Therefore, we foresee the price forming lower lows and lower highs toward the first target at 63.21, with a potential extension to the close the gap at 60.73.
The bearish outlook remains valid as long as the price stays below the key stop-loss level at 69.66.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on USOIL.
Oilsignals
Crude oil------sell near 70.00, target 66.70-63.00Crude oil market analysis:
Recently, crude oil has been rising, and buying is slowly climbing, but the amplitude is not particularly large. The daily line has not formed a large buying pattern. It is currently a technical repair market after falling too much. Today's idea is to sell on the rebound. Pay attention to the suppression near 70.00. If this position is broken, it may change the short-term trend and buying may rise.
Fundamental analysis:
Last week, Trump increased tariffs on Canada and is about to increase tariffs on Brazil. There is no sign of stopping the tariff war. It is long-term bullish for gold. The situation in the Middle East has not completely stopped, and it is also long-term suppression of the US dollar to support gold.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil------sell near 70.00, target 66.70-63.00
WTI Oil – From Conflict to StrategyBack on April 24, I marked a short zone. On June 11, price broke above that level, giving a long opportunity — which I took.
Unfortunately, it coincided with the tragic military strike by Israel on Iran, pushing oil sharply higher. I’ve pinned that analysis.
Following the ceasefire, price dropped again — just a reminder that geopolitics can shake the charts.
As traders, we stay prepared to act, even while acknowledging the deep sadness of lives lost.
Now I wait for price to reach my marked level again. If I get a valid signal, I’ll short.
But if price breaks and holds above, I’ll buy the pullback — with no bias, just pure execution.
Risk-managed. Emotion-neutral. Opportunity-focused.
WTI OIL Best scalping opportunity at the moment!WTI Oil (USOIL) has been consolidating inside a ranged trading set-up, with the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) as its Resistance and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as its Support.
We saw this previously from May 13 to June 01 and it presents the best scaling opportunity in the market at the moment. That previous Ranged Trading pattern eventually broke upwards as the Higher Lows trend-line held.
As a result, after you get your scalping profits within this range, look for a clear break-out above the 4H MA100 (candle closing) in order to go long (Resistance 1) or a break-out below the Higher Lows (candle closing) in order to go short (Support 1).
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WTI OIL This is the only Support right now.WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is so far holding its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the natural medium-term Support, following a quick price deflation after the Israel - Iran de-escalation.
In our opinion, the trend-line that currently matters most though, is the Higher Lows coming straight from the May 05 Low. If broken, we expect a quick test of the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, as it resembles the December 2023 - May 2024 Higher Lows trend-line.
Even the 1W RSI is similar among the two fractals, and it has to be said that both are part of the 2-year Channel Down pattern.
So if the Higher Lows trend-line breaks, we can target $61.00.
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WTI OIL Progressively bearish on the long-term. Eyes $52.50.A week has passed since our sell signal on WTI Oil (USOIL) and the emerging geopolitical stability has already helped the price move much faster towards our $58.20 Target (see chart in related ideas below).
If we look at it from an even longer term perspective, the 1W time-frame in particular, we can see draw some very useful conclusions about the bearish case. First of all that this week's High got rejected exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the trend-line that made the last 3 major rejections on the market (January 13 2025, October 07 2024).
As you can see, that was a textbook Double Top formation. The last Double Top rejection took place on June 06 2022, the previous multi-year Top for the market. The result was a continued sell-off that didn't stop before testing the 1W MA200, which is now the Resistance.
As a result, even though our $58.20 Target stands, on the longer term we can even see a -37.36% decline towards the end of the year. Contact with the bottom of the Channel Down can be made at $52.50.
Alternatively, you can look at the 1W RSI, which has a clear Sell and clear Buy Zone. This week it was rejected on the Sell Zone, so you may look to book your profit as soon as it enters the Buy Zone.
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CRUDE set to fire 82 $ 90 $ 104 $ ????Crude Daily Elliot waves count suggest big UP setup in progress right now
55 $ key level to watch for buyer Extension point
Due to amid middle-east war situation may trigger Up move impulse wave towards 82 $ to 104 $ range
EW count are keeping changing during different price action in different time frame & multiple forecast .
this educational based chart as per EW theory method
Geopolitics vs. Technical: Will Oil Correct -7%?Oil ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ) rose more than +20% after the start of tensions between Iran and Israel on Friday . I hope this tension ends as soon as possible because tensions have no winners.
The behavior and price movements of oil will certainly depend on the increase or decrease of tensions in the Middle East , but for the coming hours we can have a technical view .
Oil is currently moving in the Resistance zone($78.70-$74.70) and near the Resistance lines and the Yearly Pivot Point .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that Oil has completed the second five-impulse waves . So that wave 5 is Truncated .
I expect Oil to decline in the coming hours, this decline could be -7% .
Note: If the USA is added to the Middle East tensions, Oil prices could rise again, so pay more attention to capital management.
Note: Stop Loss: $79.00
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U.S. Dollar/ BRENT CRUDE OIL (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame.
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Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil has been strong recently, and it is also because of the support of fundamentals and inventory data that crude oil has begun to strengthen. Today's idea is still bullish on crude oil. Continue to buy after the retracement. The daily moving average has begun to diverge. The small support for buying has reached around 72.00. The suppression position is around 74.00 and 77.60. I estimate that it will form a small shock and then break through and rise again. If it does not break 70.00, it is still strong. Buy crude oil around 74.00 today.
Fundamental analysis:
The interest rate results announced by the Federal Reserve last night remained unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, and the fourth consecutive meeting remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. The uncertainty of the United States about the future has led to no major changes in monetary policy in the near future.
Operational suggestions
Crude oil------Buy around 74.00, target 75.00-76.50
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis:
Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today.
Fundamental analysis:
Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time.
Operational suggestions:
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90Oil market analysis:
Recently, the daily crude oil line has started to pull up, and buying has begun to rise. The retracement is our opportunity to buy again. The moving average support of the daily crude oil line has begun to move up, and the pattern has reached around 69.60. Today's idea is to buy at 72.00. The pattern is difficult to see, just buy repeatedly. The fight between Iran and Israel is a great support for crude oil. In addition, there is EIA crude oil inventory data today.
Fundamental analysis:
Previously, we have been paying attention to geopolitical factors in the fundamentals. Indeed, the situation in the Middle East has also changed the way of gold and crude oil. Today we focus on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and Chairman Powell's speech during the US trading time.
Operational suggestions:
Crude oil---Buy near 72.00, target 72.90-74.90
Crude oil----Buy around 71.00-72.00, target 73.00-77.00Crude oil market analysis:
Last week's crude oil was very exaggerated because it broke the super suppression of 65.00 on the daily line. Once this position was broken, crude oil began to be standard. This is also the result of our many predictions of the cycle. Crude oil purchases will continue to soar this week. In addition, the escalation of the situation in the Middle East will make it difficult for crude oil to fall in the short term. I estimate that there is a possibility of repair. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. In addition, the delivery period of crude oil futures contracts will also cause it to fluctuate violently again.
Fundamental analysis:
There are many fundamental analyses and data recently. Geopolitical factors are the main reason for its violent fluctuations. In addition, there is a holiday in the United States this week, and there is also a Federal Reserve interest rate result.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil----Buy around 71.00-72.00, target 73.00-77.00
WTI OIL Overbought RSI = best time to sell!WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Down pattern and due to the recent Middle East geopolitical tensions, the price catapulted near its top (Lower Highs trend-line).
That made the 1D RSI overbought (>70.00) and every time that took place since September 2023, the pattern priced its Lower High and started a Bearish Leg. As a result, an overbought 1D RSI reading has been the strongest sell signal in the past 2 years.
The 'weakest' Bearish Leg after such sell signal has been -25.29%. As a result, we have turned bearish on WTI again, targeting $58.20 (-25.29%).
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Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00Crude oil market analysis:
We still buy crude oil in the recent daily line, but yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big negative line. Short-term crude oil is about to start repairing. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. Crude oil follows the long-term trend. In addition, the war between Iran and Israel is a long-term support for crude oil purchases. If the situation escalates, crude oil may easily stand above the 100 mark in the later period. Consider buying crude oil at 71.00 today.
Fundamental analysis:
Yesterday, Iran and Israel began to bomb each other again, and the situation began to escalate.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00
WTI - ANALYSIS BUY AREA This week the ongoing conflict seems to bring more uptrend to this commodity
I believe that the last broken resistance now turning support at 67.300 will be tested prior to the OIL raising again
If the conflict doesn’t end and we don’t have a ceasefire we could see this commodity running to the 78.000 and 82.000 levels
WTI OIL Massive rejection on the 1D MA200.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down for over a year now and today its latest Bullish Leg hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since February 03 2025.
Unless we see a sustainable structured rise that turns it into a Support, the long-term bearish trend should prevail, and the market has already reacted to this with a strong rejection.
With the 1D RSI almost overbought (>70.00), being consistent with the last 3 major tops, we expect a gradual decline towards Support 1, as it happened on the January - February 2025 Bearish Leg.
Our Target is just above it at $55.50.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Pullback From Key Level
WTI Crude Oil looks overbought after a test of key daily horizontal resistance level.
A violation of a minor horizontal support on an hourly time frame after its test
provides a strong intraday confirmation.
I expect a retracement to 66.33 level.
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USOUL:Go long near 65.5
USOIL:Crude oil broke through the watershed 64.85 after the emergence of strong unilateral bulls, daily cycle relying on short-term average to go even Yang form, rising space has opened, pay attention to the strong will continue at least a few trading days, short-term relying on 65 defense needs to be more, pay attention to 65.5 near the long, see 66.7-67
Trading Strategy:
BUY@65.5
TP: 66.7-67
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Crude oil-----Sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil is still bearish, and we will continue to sell on rebounds. If it does not break 65.00, it will fluctuate. The general trend is bearish. If it breaks, we will adjust our thinking. Today's crude oil is the key. Will it start to take off before the data? The previous crude oil inventory data did not allow crude oil to break the position. The crude oil fluctuation range is 60.00-65.00. If it breaks this range, we will adjust our thinking on fluctuations.
Operational suggestions
Crude oil-----Sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00
Crude oil----sell near 64.00, target 63.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis:
Yesterday's crude oil still failed to rise. The buying price still failed to stand above 65.00 and was still fluctuating. Today, we continue to look at the range wave. We still consider selling it when it is close to 64. The crude oil inventory data does not give us much room for imagination. In addition, the recent fundamentals of crude oil are not strong, and they do not support the long position of crude oil, which has caused crude oil to fluctuate and hover. The current fluctuation range we see is 65.00-60.00.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil----sell near 64.00, target 63.00-60.00
WTI OIL The perfect scalping Rectangle.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a 3-week Rectangle pattern since the May 13th High and yesterday it got rejected on its top. This is a technical sell signal, with it natural target being the bottom of the pattern at $60.70.
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WTI OIL Rejection on 1D MA50 aims at $56.50.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a 13-month Channel Down pattern and is currently under heavy pressure by multiple Resistance levels.
The immediate one is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has its most recent rejection last Wednesday (May 21) and as you can see, the price has failed to break above it, even though it's been trading directly below it.
As long as the 1D MA50 holds, we expect a test of the lower Support Zone at $56.50, similar to the September - December 2024 Support Zone, which was tested continuously after several 1D MA50 rejections.
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