USOUSD (Crude Oil) 3H: 22/02/2023: Bull or... ?
Main Idea:
You can see all the details on the chart.
Around 74$ (with low time frame confirmation) it can be a good area to buy.
If you have questions, feel free to ask.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️22/02/2023
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Oilsignals
WTI OIL One last upside target. This is the signal to sell.We are updating our WTI Oil (USOIL) outlook on last week's buy signal:
Target 1 (78.50) has been hit as the price reached the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the January 27 High. If a 4H candle closes above this trend-line, you can extend buying towards Target 2 (80.00), which is where the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is, posing as the Resistance.
We will open sells when the 4H RSI makes a Lower High. This has worked 100% on all three previous Highs of the December - February range.
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Recap of my trade for todayGood afternoon traders, our trade for today on CRUDE OIL was as good as expected, after breaking the channel we got in with one contract exactly on the candle I put the 1st arrow on on the left, then after having a configuration I can't share with the public we added another contract on the 2nd arrow on the left, then the 3rd contract on the 3rd arrow and finally closed after having a squeeze pattern.
In case you got any question don't hesitate to ask !
OIL SELLWelcome . oil market. in a very negative state. With the price reaching strong support 77.50, and breaking the pattern. double bottom, there is a lot of pressure from sellers to downgrade the market. To 75 levels in the first stage. And level 74 good luck. Note: If you like this analysis, please give your opinion on it. in the comments. I will be glad to share ideas Thank you
WTI OIL Two break-out buy signals11 days ago we took the best possible sell entry we could have as we shorted the exact top, calling for the best sell opportunity since December:
Right now the price is on a strong rebound, slightly higher than Support 1 (73.25) but with the 1D RSI on a confirmed reversal within its range. If you missed the bottom buy opportunity, wait for a 4H candle closing above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as this was a confirmed buy opportunity on all previous three occasions (circles). First target at 78.50 and if the price closes above the Lower Highs (dashed) trend-line, we will re-buy targeting 80.00.
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oil BrentWe are witnessing a correction in a channelized range that completed the -0.5 shark pattern in this range and we are exactly on the expected correction area of the above pattern, we are in the 50% Fibo area at 75.65 with a little flexibility in the above pattern at the intersection with the midline of the channel along with Two pivot point ranges at the prices of 64.15 and 71.28 can be expected to support the upward movement that can determine the role of the above reduction in dealing with the ceiling.
WTI OIL Approaching the best sell entry since December.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been rising within the short-term Channel Up as presented on our analysis last week:
As previously mentioned, since December 12, WTI hasn't closed below the 72.40 Support or above the 83.30 Resistance. That keeps the price ranged and recurring patterns emerge. One of those is the current Channel Up which is quite similar to the Channel Up patterns of December 16 - 27 and January 05 - 18.
This is what helped us take the buy last week above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), while the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) gave a boost on February 09. The price is now approaching the orange Resistance Zone and technically a price near 81.50 is a Sell despite the presence of a Higher Highs trend-line.
The reason is that the previous two Chanel Up patterns took approximately 36 and 38 candles respectively from bottom to top. A 36 bar sequence gets completed tomorrow so by Wednesday the latest (if this fractal gets repeated again), the Channel Up should top. We are waiting for that top, or better yet Double Top, to sell again and target the 73.25 Support.
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WTI OIL Recurring pattern turning it neutral mid-term?Our previous WTI Oil (USOIL) signal couldn't have gone any better as the bearish reversal was confirmed and we took the sell:
Following the rebound however after the (marginal) fake-out just below the 72.40 Support, we see the medium-term scene turning neutral. The reason is that since December 12, so effectively in the past 2 months, WTI hasn't closed below the 72.40 Support or above the 83.30 Resistance. And on top of that, the current rise looks quite similar to the Channel Up patterns of December 16 - 27 and January 05 - 18.
As a result, a clear candle closing above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), while the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting, is a buy signal targeting at least the 81.05 December 26 High. Also look how well the 1D RSI also fits into a range itself.
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OIL BUY POSITIONCRUDE OIL: as you can see it broke out from a trendline and came back to grab some liquidity. this is why it's good to have patience in the market.
we can also spot a double bottom which signifies an up trend.
TIPS
1: always wait for a for a retest when a trendline is broken
2: always map out zones in every trendline breakout as I did so.
3: also it is advisable to do top down approach before entering any trade
WTI Crude oil : The retest to rule them all! 10.5Focus up!
100-101.50 is key retest level of support trend-line stretching back all the way to December 2021, with consistent higher lows.
At the same time, it's also a retest level of the second higher high breakout stretching back from the peak of 128.
China lock down is expected to ease within days, inflation is on the rise, EU oil ban for Russia is likely coming very soon.
An unlikely daily close below 100 could signal further downside to 97 though very unlikely with current fundamental/technical combo.
Do the math and keep the back noise out the picture, look only at key factors and act with caution and patience.
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WTI OIL Bearish reversal confirmedWTI Oil (USOIL) is so far following the trading plan we presented 11 days ago, rising first towards the 83.40 Resistance and as it failed to break above it, it instead broke the short-term Channel Up downwards:
This basically confirms the bearish reversal of January's rally, with the price breaking below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but at the moment finding Support on both the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line). A new rejection on the 4H MA50 and closing below the 4H MA200/ 1D MA50 cluster, will be a sell signal for us, targeting first the Higher Lows (dashed) trend-line and the 70.10 in extension on the longer term.
Check also how the 1D RSI got rejected emphatically on its own Lower Highs trend-line.
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WTI OIL Limited upside, significant downsideIt is time to update our WTI Oil (USOIL) thesis, which was bullish last week as the Resistance within the Channel Up broke:
This time we see one last rise as a possibility since the price is rebounding on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but limited to the 83.40 Resistance. An exception can be made to an overextension to the 85.00 - 86.00 range on the red zone, which is the top (Lower Highs) limit of the 5-month Channel Down (dashed lines).
On that point or if the price breaks below the 4H MA50 first, we expect a strong drop, with the downside open to at least the 70.10 Support. A more likely scenario in our opinion.
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Crude oil💥1D -TIMEFRAME ANALYSISCrude oil💥1D -TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
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WTI OIL 4H Death Cross. Trade the break-outs.WTI Oil (USOIL) formed yesterday a Death Cross on the 4H time-frame, the first such (bearish) formation in almost 2 months (since November 17 2022). The price got rejected exactly on both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) following last week's rejection (January 03) on the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line). We covered this on our last week analysis:
The only pattern that is in favor of Oil rising is the Channel Up of October 18 to November 07, which held the Medium-term Support. A similar Channel Up can re-test the 1D MA50 but as always on risky set-ups, it is best to trade the break-out. That is the 76.70 Resistance, between the 4H MA200 and 4H MA50.
On the downside, a break below the 72.50 Support, targets a Lower Low on the long-term Channel Down (dashed) close to 68.00.
As before, keep an eye on the 1D RSI, which has a clear Lower Highs trend-line that offers solid sell entries.
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Crude oil WTI: Downside contained?Oil WTI failed to break over the 50-day moving average during the session on January 3, and sellers returned after the price topped $80 per barrel.
This resulted in a rapid drop to $73/bbl, making it an interesting area to assess the strength of buyers on dips once again. Remember that the US is actively purchasing crude oil at 67-72 dollars per barrel range in order to replenish its strategic reserves (SPR), which have fallen to their lowest level since 1983.
The level of $70/bbl generated a double bottom between December 9 and December 12, 2022, luring buyers at those prices.
In the coming weeks, the market may retest those levels or even hit $69-68.5/bbl (December 21, 2021 lows). In such a case, the RSI may show a bullish divergence since it will not fall as low as it did at the December 9 price lows.
Thus, the short-term scenario may still have another leg down, albeit the proximity to the purchasing window may limit bearish pressure.
A fresh rise over $80/bbl (the 50DMA and the negative trendline from June to November 2022) would open up new positive prospects towards $84/bbl (23.6% Fibonacci) first and $90/bbl (psychological and highs of November 10, 2022) afterwards.