Brent Crude Technical TouchThe overall decline of Brent crude benchmark prices from $86.70 per barrel to $65.72 went within the five-wave pattern. Yet, it could possibly transform to an ABC correction with an A wave that we are witnessing now, or we may have an incoming bearish trend, but we may certainly depict one more downside wave.
The first wave that finished from $86.70 to $80.20;
The second wave, which recovered to 76.4% of the Fibonacci retracement;
The third wave, which declined from $85.50 to $77.58;
The fourth wave, which rebounded to 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement ;
The fifth wave, which declined from $83 per barrel to $65.72m - an extension of 2,382% to the length of the first wave.
After all five waves pass, Brent crude prices would likely be a subject of an upward correction in a zig-zag form or double zig-zag. I have reasons to consider that we have witnessed the first part of the rise as Brent crude prices have made a rebound of 50% from its projected lows. Initially I have suggested that the multi-month upward trend that has started in April 2020 would survive. However, now its support has been passed downwards and this support at $75-76 per barrel is now being tested as a new resistance. So, it is logical to expect prices to roll back from this level. And this was confirmed at the end of this week. Besides, an “evening star” pattern was formed within the last three days on the daily timeframe chart. On junior timeframes we have received a divergence between peaks at $76.24 and $76.69 per barrel.
By saying this we may suggest there is a strong technical reason for Brent crude prices to slide. The inner side of a zig-zag usually provides a decline of 50% to 61.8% to the first part of the growth. This means a scale back of Brent crude prices to $70-$71.30 per barrel. Sometimes, this decline could be less at 38.2%.
In our case we should turn to a five-hour timeframe where we have two potentially interesting zones that the price may return to. The first zone is located at $71.80-72.18 per barrel, and the second is at $69.82-71.93 per barrel. Zones have a small overlapping on $71.80-71.93, where we may expect the price to return to where it was in the first place. We may also have a steeper correction to $69.91 per barrel, but it is unlikely we will see prices below that level.
With this being said we may suggest another upside wave for Brent crude prices that would be equal to the first wave or lower by 38.2%. We should also remember that there is no five-wave pattern. So, we may have a threat of another downside wave of crude prices in late January or even February 2022.
Oilsignals
WTI OIL Consolidation almost over. Buy the break-out.This is an update to a pattern on WTI that I've been working on since August:
As you see, the price did eventually rebound and right now is consolidating within the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) being the Support and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) being the Resistance. This is similar to the August 25 - September 10 consolidation, looking like another accumulation phase before a major rally.
Be ready to buy the break-out and target 76.30 on the short-term, which where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) may act as a Resistance. After the (yellow) Lower Highs trend-line breaks, our attention shifts to the long-term target of $85.00.
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WTI Oil can rise above 80 (again)From 25th October's high at around 85, Oil has started to correct and dropped to strong demand zone between 62 and 65.
Now, this correction seems to be over and we can have a leg up above 80 again.
I'm bullish as long as the price is above 65 and, in my opinion, dips should be bought
WTI OIL approaching a medium-term ResistanceThis is an update to my WTI Oil outlook made over a week ago:
Despite breaking below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the Higher Lows trend-line of the multi-month Bullish Megaphone pattern, the price managed to close all 1D candles within the pattern and formed a Support. It has come very close to my first 73.50 Target which is near the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). I consider this a strong Resistance, in fact the whole zone as high as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), where we can see a weekly consolidation and sideways trading in a similar way as in late August - early September.
Short-term traders may buy if the price breaks above the 1D MA100 and target 76.30 and engage for a more long-term trade only if the 1D MA50 breaks (TP 85.00 in that case).
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WTI OIL Ideal long-term buy opportunityWTI Oil is down more than -20% since the October High. The fundamentals over the new Omicron COVID variant have undoubtedly accelerated this but technically this is a much needed correction following the big rally of August - October.
My last update on WTI was the following, where I pointed out the upcoming rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line):
The 1D RSI touched its multi-month Support Zone and even though a slightly lower level is technically possible (-23.50% would be within the technical limits of the 9 month Bullish Megaphone pattern), the current levels already represent an ideal buy opportunity for the long-term.
Our firm's thesis is that the rebound that will follow will target the 0.5 Fibonacci level (73.50) on the short-term, followed by the 0.382 (76.30) on the medium-term. The long-term lies on October's 85.40 High and potentially beyond (based on the geopolitics at the time can be reviewed).
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crude oil
Since history always repeats itself, we expect oil to drop to levels 38, 34 , as you see there are 2 ascending triangles , one big and the other small, look at the small one, after the price broke the third higher low , the price retested it by forming double top then descending wolfe wave formed ,then the price free fall fell so we are expecting the same path for the big ascending triangle , zoom out to see it now the price broke the third higher low in big ascending triangle , we expecting the price to retest it the form a descending wolfe wave the free fall to 34 ,In addition to fears of an inflated global excess supply of crude in the first quarter of next year, due to lower demand.
Take your profit & RUN! 🏃♂️
I hope you all have a brilliant trades 💖
Stay safe ✌️
USOILUSOIL - this is base on news and other fundamental analysis . to gain the liquidity big traders must close there for small retracement in market. Travel ban to Africa will loose some demand for oil. Anyway COT says the same thing. lets enjoy the ride. these analysis are not trade signals or advice to take the trade this is only for my improvement but still if anyone want to pick some idea you are welcome.
Oil is headed down in 60s rangePrices of oil have a direct impact on the inflation. The higher oil prices have started impacting the consumers across the globe.
We have used Aspen Trading Support & Resistance Levels to analyse the oil prices trend. It has clearly broken down the short-term support levels at 77.75 and most probably could lead to further down side.
As the the oil production ramps up, the oil prices could stabilise at the pre-covid levels in the range of 60s.
Note - Aspen Trading S/R levels are invite only. They can be accessed through my profile information.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for information purpose only and does not constitute any investment advice.
WTI OIL Rejection on the 1D MA50Pattern: Megaphone on the 1D time-frame.
Signal: Sell as the price has been rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and buy before it touches the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) or when the RSI hits the Support Zone.
Target: 85.40 (the October 23 High).
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oil we published this idea yesterday and we are gonna hit the TB soon every thing is running very great more than 400 pips in one trade in one day have a look at the idea below Congratulations to all and see you in other successful deals as we have been used to
🧙♂️usoil ✅Oil prices rise on reports that OPEC+ could reassess output
we expect the brice gonna reach 79 according to wolf wave
Oil Long SetupOIL Long Setup
🔵 Entry Level: $75.25
🟢 Take Profit: $78.69 (1.97R)
⛔ Stop Loss: $73.49
Reasoning:
1) Lower trendline in a descending channel
2) Oversold condition on the indicator
WTI OIL can go much lower based on this patternIt was exactly one month ago (October 19) when I reversed my bullish thesis on WTI Crude Oil, calling for a top and a reversal:
As you see, the top got priced exactly on the March Higher Highs trend-line and the rejection successfully took place. Even early into November, the Lower Highs peak formation was clear:
Back to today. In my firm's outlook, since the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) broke, the only level that may support Oil is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and that only temporarily. Why? Because this is what happened last time on July 20, a short-term hold there followed by a dead-cat bounce above the 1D MA50 again only to serve as a new rejection towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where the price eventually made the bottom.
As you see, the major pattern since March is a Bullish Megaphone which besides the Higher Highs, has also a Higher Lows trend-line that Supports. A new contact with that trend-line would be on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which was where the bottom was formed last time on the Higher Lows trend-line in August 20. Corrections of -15% are common within this Megaphone pattern and another such correction would make a low right above the 1D MA200, which I believe will be the bottom and will prevail over a deeper contact on the Higher Lows trend-line.
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USOIL- long term projection.Here's my analysis on the daily time frame. We are in an upwards trend and it's always better to trade with the trend; not against it. Therefore, I believe oil will see the price of $90 very soon.
Price action has just rejected the 61.8% fib level (on the 1 hour timeframe) and rejected the trendline. On the daily timeframe price has rejected the 78.6% fib level.
Hope everyone is having a great evening. Please comment below your ideas or if you need me to analyse anything.
USOIL - bullish move.Here's my analysis for US oil, I'm new to trading oil; going to see how it goes.
Please let me know your thoughts below.
Have a great day !
WTI Crude Oil [BEARISH]Oil prices are being pumped no pun intended. The false demand that is being created is the excuse to push prices higher and higher.
WTI OIL Break-out or rejectionOil is approaching the most important trend-line on the medium-term, the 84.80 - 85.40 Resistance Zone. A break and session close above 85.40 should technically aim at the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of 92.50. On the other hand, a rejection at 84.80 should aim at the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and the Lower Lows trend-line.
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Oil Short SetupOIL Short Setup
🔵 Entry Level: $82.90
🟢 Take Profit: $78.42 (2.17)
⛔ Stop Loss: $84.96
Reasoning:
1) Currently an overbought level, expecting a slight cool down after which a new move up should follow, taking us to the entry target.
2) If this setup turns out to be valid, the price should print lower high on the indicator, while making a higher high on the chart.
3) Level is coordinated with previous support, which should act as resistance now.
4) Upper trendline on a descending channel.
OIl Going long at H4 momentum shift in weekly demand looking to go long on oil on a 4h chart with 4h shift in momentum at this weekly area of demand in a weekly uptrend
WTI OIL Bearish Reversal patternWTI Oil is on a typical Bearish Reversal pattern and the first signs of this were given last week as posted on my most recent analysis:
Right now the price is on Lower Highs, similar to the July peak and reversal fractal. If a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) / MA100 (green trend-line) Bearish Cross is formed, it will confirm the sell target of the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). That is currently around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and even though the price may dip even lower, that is a solid short-term short target.
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