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Oil Market Volatility due to Shipping Disruptions in the Red SeaIt has come to our attention that several shipping companies have temporarily halted their operations in the Red Sea, leading to a slight disruption in the transportation of oil. As you are aware, the Red Sea is a crucial shipping route for oil tankers, connecting major oil-producing regions to global markets. Any disruption in this route can have far-reaching implications, causing ripple effects throughout the oil market. The current situation demands cautious consideration of our trading strategies, particularly regarding long oil positions. While the exact reasons behind the shipping companies' decision to temporarily halt their operations in the Red Sea remain undisclosed, it is imperative that we closely monitor the situation and assess its potential impact on oil prices. The reduced availability of shipping routes may result in increased transportation costs, delays in deliveries, and potential supply constraints. These factors can contribute to short-term volatility and uncertainty in the oil market. In light of this development, I encourage you to exercise caution when considering long oil positions. It is crucial to stay informed about the latest updates regarding the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and their potential implications on oil supply and demand dynamics. We can better navigate the market and make informed trading decisions by remaining vigilant and responsive to these changes. To stay updated, I recommend closely monitoring reputable news sources, industry reports, and official statements from shipping companies and relevant authorities. Additionally, engaging in discussions with fellow traders and industry experts can provide valuable insights and perspectives. As always, I would like to emphasize the importance of conducting thorough research and analysis before making any trading decisions. While volatility can present opportunities, it also carries risks that need to be carefully evaluated. By maintaining a cautious approach and considering the potential consequences of the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, we can mitigate potential losses and capitalize on favorable market conditions. Should you have any questions or require further information, please do not hesitate to reach out to me via comment.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Oil's Next Move: Red Sea Conflict and $75? Oil's Next Move: Red Sea Conflict and $75? BP has suspended all oil and gas shipments through the Red Sea due to a rise in attacks on cargo ships and a deteriorating security situation attributed to Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen. This move has caused a 2% surge in oil prices, pushing WTI crude futures to $72.5 per barrel. This development signals the first indication of a spill-over effect in Israel-Palestine tensions that could impact global supply chains in 2024. Some shipping companies are now avoiding the Red Sea/Suez Canal, choosing to navigate around Africa instead. This shift will likely contribute to increased supply costs and delays in the coming weeks. There is a possibility of the U.S. military intervening to ensure the critical shipping route remains open. However, reports also suggest a potential near-term peace agreement between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, which could eliminate the need for U.S. intervention. Despite these uncertainties, the current abundance of oil supply might be constraining upward pressure on prices. The recent price increase could be attributed more to short covering, as money managers have consistently reduced their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions for the eleventh consecutive week, as reported by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday. From a technical standpoint, WTI is currently making an effort to secure a closure above the $72.5 threshold, and beyond that, it aims for the $73.5 level, where the 20-day Moving Average is situated. The subsequent resistance lies at a significant psychological milestone of $75. The geopolitical situation holds a crucial role. If tensions persist, there is a possibility of breaching the current levels and a subsequent upward movement toward the $80 benchmark.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
No bullish sign Crude oil fell below 70, with no bullish signals in the short to medium term. Oil prices have continued to fall since the second rebound in late October failed, and eventually formed a downward trend. Oil prices have hit the August low of 77.80. Oil prices showed a minor shock pattern around the lows, forming a flag relay pattern. Oil prices successfully fell below the lower edge of the flag pattern. Overall, oil prices have been weak, facing pressure from a variety of sources, including oversupply, doubts about planned production cuts, global economic uncertainty and weak gasoline demand. Investors will pay close attention to market dynamics to obtain signals on the future trend of oil prices. The focus this week will be Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls data. Oil prices are currently bearish, pay attention to 71.5 above.
VANTAGE:CL-OILShort
by Anthony-Ryan
WTI OIL Channel Down bottom buy signalWTI Oil (USOIL) eventually hit our 71.00 target we set last week (see chart below) upon the dotted Channel Up break-out: The price is now attempting a rebound following the breach of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is a typical procedure throughout 2023 and delivers a strong rebound. However, we we will our perspective short-term until the Channel Down breaks, and will only target 73.50, which is where we expect contact to be made with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). We reserve a spot for an additional buy at 67.00 (June 28 Low), in case the price makes one last pull-back to price a Lower Low on the Channel Down. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
Range trading The market's reaction to OPEC+'s announcement of voluntary production cuts was a further decline in oil prices. According to reports, investors were pessimistic about crude oil ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and had already priced in their expectations that production cuts would not be enough to push oil prices higher. The market's economic recession and investors' disappointed attitude towards crude oil have caused oil prices to continue to fall despite production cuts. At present, crude oil pays attention to the resistance level of 75 and the support level of 72. The current market situation is still range trading and there will be no one-sided situation.
TVC:USOILShort
by Anthony-Ryan
Crude Oil Bullish Crude prices rose as a weaker dollar and optimism that major oil producers could extend ongoing production cuts at an OPEC+ meeting later this week boosted sentiment. Although the market is still paying close attention to the production of non-OPEC countries, various positive factors have provided positive external support for oil prices. Investors' expectations for the OPEC+ meeting have kept the market cautiously optimistic about future oil prices. Secondly, the combination of a weaker dollar, expectations of production cuts, and supply concerns have driven up oil prices. Judging from the current trend of crude oil, as long as it does not fall below 74.4, oil prices will give priority to rising to test the 79.3-80 area. We also need to pay attention to the key position 75.8.
VANTAGE:CL-OILLong
by Anthony-Ryan
1
WTI OIL Loosely supported by the RSI.WTI Oil (USOIL) got rejected yesterday just before it hit the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2-month Channel Down. It may have broken though below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as well but found support on the short-term Channel Up (dotted lines), which is essentially the bearish leg towards the Lower Highs of the Channel Down. The early October bullish sequence traded within such a Channel Up as well and broke downwards only when the 4H RSI broke below its Higher Lows trend-line (October 22). Currently the RSI is supported by a similar Higher Lows trend-line. If broken, we will see and target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) at 71.00. Until then we have the opportunity for a Channel Up bottom long towards 79.50 (4H MA200 potential contact). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
1
Evaluating OPEC+ Compliance Levels for Cautious Oil TradingAs you are aware, the upcoming OPEC+ member countries to implement potential oil-supply cuts has sparked considerable interest and speculation within the trading community. Today, I would like to draw your attention to the importance of evaluating the compliance levels of these member countries and how it presents a potential opportunity for cautious oil trading. The proposed oil-supply cuts have been designed to stabilize oil prices amidst the ongoing global economic uncertainties. However, it is crucial to assess the actual compliance of OPEC+ member countries with these agreed-upon cuts. By doing so, we can gain valuable insights into the potential impact on global oil supply and demand dynamics. To effectively evaluate compliance levels, it is recommended to closely monitor official statements, production data, and any relevant news updates from OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Analyzing these factors will provide a clearer understanding of how closely member countries are adhering to their commitments. While evaluating compliance levels, it is important to maintain a cautious approach towards trading oil. The current market conditions are highly volatile and unpredictable, influenced by various geopolitical and economic factors. It is advisable to exercise prudence and carefully assess the potential risks associated with any trading decisions. In light of the potential opportunities arising from the evaluation of compliance levels, I encourage you to consider engaging in oil trading. However, it is crucial to approach this market with a cautious mindset, ensuring that you have a well-thought-out trading strategy in place. Diversification and risk management should be at the forefront of your decision-making process. As always, it is essential to stay informed and updated on the latest developments in the oil market. By leveraging reliable sources of information, you can make informed trading decisions and navigate the market with greater confidence. In conclusion, evaluating the compliance levels of OPEC+ member countries with the proposed oil-supply cuts presents an opportunity for cautious oil trading. However, it is imperative to remain vigilant, assess the risks involved, and develop a sound trading strategy that aligns with your risk appetite. Should you require any further information or assistance in evaluating compliance levels or refining your trading strategy, please do not hesitate to comment below. Thank you for your attention, and I wish you successful and prudent trading in these challenging times.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Are OPEC+ voluntary cuts enough to support oil prices?After the latest OPEC+ meeting, the price of WTI crude oil dropped more than 2% to $75 per barrel, ending a two-day win streak. During the meeting, OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production early next year by almost 2 million barrels per day (bpd). This decision was spurred by worries about having too much oil in the market coinciding with the end of Saudi Arabia's voluntary 1 million bpd cut. Saudi Arabia said it would continue its cut until at least the first quarter of 2024. Russia also extended its cut to 500,000 bpd for the first quarter. Iraq agreed to reduce output by 211,000 bpd, and UAE pledged to cut 160,000 bpd in the first quarter. However, OPEC+ also invited Brazil to join the group. Brazil said they plan to join in January and increase their daily oil output to 3.8 million barrels, countering the other members pledges to cut production and support prices.
BLACKBULL:USOIL.F
by BlackBull_Markets
7 Dimension Analysis For OIL🕛 TOPDOWN Analysis - Monthly Bullish Structure, Weekly Bearish Inducement Overview: The monthly market structure maintains a bullish stance, holding key supports. On the weekly chart, a valid low was established, accompanied by a strong bearish inducement. While a demand flip occurred, the overall trend remains bearish, marked by a record session count and inside candle price action. The daily time frame reveals a bearish swing structure with impulsive moves, indicating potential further downside. 😇 7 Dimension Analysis Time Frame: Daily 1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish 🟢 Structure Behavior: ChoCh 🟢 Swing Move: Impulsive 🟢 Inducement: Suggests potential further downward movement. 🟢 Pull Back: No significant pullback observed. 🟢 Resistance Zones: Market encounters resistance at every supply zone post- ChoCh, forming a bearish build-up, indicating potential future downside. No traps observed. 2️⃣ Pattern 🟢 CHART PATTERNS Continuation Symmetric Triangle Shakeout Continuation 🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS Notable Observations: Momentum candles with Fake out/FOMO. Tweezer at the internal move top. Inside candles in the last three days. 3️⃣ Volume: Significant volumes observed at the beginning of the move. 4️⃣ Momentum RSI: 🟢 RSI Below 40: Indicates a super bearish zone with high selling pressure. 🟢 Range Shift: Shifted sideways to bearish, suggesting ongoing bearish activity. 🟢 Divergence: Hidden bearish divergence present. 5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands: 🟢 Middle Band Resistance: Strong rejection observed. 🟢 Head fake: At the top of the move, indicating a potential deep bearish move. ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H1 ✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish ☑️ Current Move: Impulsive Bearish ✔ Support Resistance Base: Takes resistance at a significant level. ☑️ Candles Behavior: Extremely volatile bearish momentum. ☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Confirmed. ☑️ Final Comments: Sell at the open. 💡 Decision: Sell 🚀 Entry: 75.22 ✋ Stop Loss: 78.04 🎯 Take Profit: 68.07, 2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Exit on a trendline breakout or FOMO. 😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3.5 🕛 Expected Duration: 7 days SUMMARY: The analysis reveals a monthly bullish structure but a weekly bearish inducement. The daily swing structure is bearish with an ongoing impulsive bearish move. Recognized patterns include a symmetric triangle and shakeout continuation. Critical levels, candle patterns, and trendline breakouts were considered for the entry decision. The suggestion is to sell at the open, with detailed entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, presenting a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3.5, and an expected duration of 7 days.
TVC:USOILShort
by Optimum369
Crude oil market analysis The OPEC+ meeting has been postponed, and the market has doubts about whether oil-producing countries can insist on extending production cuts. As well as the recent weak performance of U.S. economic data, the margins of supply and demand are weak, which is not conducive to higher oil prices. The OPEC+ meeting at the end of the month will be the highlight of the oil market, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mood. Before OPEC+ announces a new production policy, oil prices may maintain a volatile adjustment. Current trading is around the 73.5-77.2 range
VANTAGE:CL-OIL
by Anthony-Ryan
WTI Price Stability Around $75 Amid OPEC+ Cut ExpectationsWestern Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark crude oil, is currently trading near $75.05 as of Tuesday. WTI prices show modest gains, supported by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will extend oil production cuts in the upcoming Thursday meeting. Amid the recent oil price slump, analysts predict that OPEC+ might consider extending or deepening production cuts into the next year. Saudi Arabia, the world's major oil exporter, is expected to prolong its supply cuts by an additional 1 million barrels per day into the next year, while Russia may contemplate further supply reductions of 300,000 barrels per day. If OPEC+ decides on deeper production cuts next year, it could restrain the downward momentum of WTI prices. Furthermore, China is set to release National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Thursday. Better-than-expected data might uplift WTI prices, considering China's significant role as the world's leading producer and consumer of oil. On the flip side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a mild surplus in crude oil production by 2024, even with OPEC+ extending cuts into the following year. Additionally, robust production from non-OPEC countries like the U.S. could contribute to price pressure. Traders in the oil market will closely monitor U.S. growth figures on Wednesday, with the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 expected to rise by 5%, up from the previous 4.9%. On Thursday, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and China's NBS PMI data will be announced. The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend will be crucial for oil traders, as these events could significantly impact WTI prices in USD. Oil traders will interpret signals from the data and explore trading opportunities around WTI prices.
TVC:USOIL
by oraleeogwynn1725
Oil Continues to Decline Ahead of OPEC MeetingAs the global demand for oil continues to decline, coupled with the upcoming OPEC meeting, it is crucial to approach this situation with caution and strategic planning. Over the past few months, we have witnessed a steady decline in oil prices, primarily driven by various factors such as geopolitical tensions and a shift towards renewable energy sources. This downward trend has created a potential opening for traders who are keen on shorting oil. The upcoming OPEC meeting adds an additional layer of complexity to the situation. As market participants eagerly await the decisions and actions of major oil-producing nations, it is essential to stay informed and remain adaptable to potential market fluctuations. While the opportunity to short oil may seem enticing, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent risks and volatility associated with this trade. As experienced traders, you understand the importance of conducting thorough research, analyzing market trends, and implementing risk management strategies. To maximize your chances of success, I encourage you to consider the following steps: 1. Stay updated: Continuously monitor the latest news and developments surrounding the oil market and the upcoming OPEC meeting. This will help you identify potential catalysts that may impact oil prices. 2. Utilize technical analysis: Leverage technical indicators and charts to identify key support and resistance levels, as well as potential reversal patterns. This will assist you in timing your trades effectively. 3. Implement risk management: Set clear stop-loss orders and determine your acceptable risk levels. This will help protect your capital and ensure you have a disciplined approach to trading. 4. Diversify your portfolio: Consider spreading your risk by exploring other trading opportunities within different sectors or asset classes. This will help mitigate potential losses and increase your chances of overall profitability. Remember, trading oil requires a cautious approach and a keen eye for market trends. While the current downtrend presents an opportunity, it is crucial to remain vigilant and adapt your strategies as new information emerges. Should you require any further assistance or have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out in the comments. . I am here to provide the necessary guidance and support to help you navigate this volatile market.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln
OPEC Close to Agreeing Product Cut as African Countries I wanted to draw your attention to recent developments within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that could potentially impact the oil market significantly. It appears that OPEC is inching closer to reaching an agreement on production cuts, as several African countries have now joined forces. Over the past few weeks, discussions within OPEC have intensified, with member countries grappling with the ongoing challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on global oil demand. The recent addition of African nations, including Nigeria, Angola, and Gabon, to the group's production cut efforts, has injected a new sense of optimism into the market. This collective action aims to stabilize oil prices and reduce the global supply glut that has been weighing heavily on the industry. However, it is important to approach this development with caution. While the prospect of OPEC reaching an agreement is encouraging, we must acknowledge the inherent uncertainties that still loom over the market. The success of any production cut deal relies on the commitment and adherence of all participating countries, which historically has been a challenge. Moreover, the global economic recovery remains fragile, and the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in several countries poses a significant threat to oil demand. Any setbacks in the containment of the virus could further dampen the prospects of a sustained oil price recovery. Considering these factors, it would be prudent to exercise caution when considering investment decisions. As always, thorough analysis and risk management should guide your trading strategies. While the potential for shorting oil may seem compelling given the current situation, it is essential to carefully evaluate the associated risks and consult with your financial advisor. In conclusion, the news of OPEC's progress towards a production cut agreement, coupled with the involvement of African countries, certainly warrants attention. However, the volatile nature of the oil market demands a cautious approach. As traders, it is crucial to stay informed, adapt to evolving circumstances, and make well-informed decisions based on comprehensive analysis. Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions or require further insights. Wishing you successful trading ahead!
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
Expected to rise International oil prices rose more than 2% on Monday amid widespread expectations that OPEC+ will announce further production cuts after a meeting of member states early next week. Traders are eyeing potential speculative buying in crude oil trading as global risk sentiment appears to be strengthening and optimism returns among financial institutions. Crude oil continued its rebound trend and reached the pressure level, but was blocked and fell back. It is still falling back and adjusting. Since the bulls' main bottom-buying signals appeared continuously below, it has rebounded relatively slightly. At present, it should continue to fluctuate and adjust. Crude oil will currently fluctuate in the range of 78.8-75.5.
VANTAGE:CL-OILLong
by Anthony-Ryan
WTI OIL Excellent buy opportunity.WTI OIL (USOIL) has been trading within a long-term Rectangle since the August 30 High. This is most accurately displayed by the use of the Fibonacci retracement levels where we can see that the majority of the price action has been within the 0.236 - 0.618 Fibonacci range. We call that the "High Volatility Zone". On November 16 the price almost hit the bottom of that Zone and since the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is just below and has been the long-term Support (hasn't closed a 1D candle below it since January 29 2021!), we consider the commodity to have significant upside potential. On top of that, the 1D RSI has Double Bottomed on the oversold barrier of 30.00 (where it always gave strong rallies on May 04 2023, March 17 2023, December 09 2022 and September 26 2022) while the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross (with all such crosses below the 0.00 mark being a buy signal). We are bullish at least for the short-term, targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 80.50, expecting also a potential contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
2
Crude oil range trading Crude oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive week last week. A substantial increase in inventories and record production were the main reasons for the decline in crude oil prices last week. The entire market has been weak recently due to supply concerns and a significant drop in demand. However, on Friday due to some short sellers Oil prices rose as profit-taking and U.S. sanctions on Russian crude shippers gave oil prices a bit of support. Market focus this week shifts to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting to discuss further production cuts, which could increase tensions with the United States, while the market focuses on whether Saudi Arabia and Russia extend voluntary production cuts until 2024 Crude oil support and resistance levels will continue to move upward. Crude oil is currently trading in a range. Support level 74.5 Resistance level 77.8
VANTAGE:CL-OILLong
by Anthony-Ryan