Total (FPP) : Open short ! The major resistance blocks buyersThe french blue chip Total (FP, 111b € of Market Cap), from the oil industry, is inside a bearish dynamic since June 2014. This is characterized by lower tops and lower bottoms.
Currently, the buyers seemed to have taken back the advantage, but the Major resistance area at 45.00€ is still preventing the stock from going higher . As long as this level is not passed, the long term trend such as the mid term one will remain bearish. The 200 days Moving average shows that Total is still inside the downside direction ; it does not reverse durably.
For the blue trendlines : I always consider horizontal levels as the most important ones for trading ; the blue trendlines are just to show the pace of dynamics. A breakout of this type of line is not a sufficient indication to make a trade.
Because we are still in a bearish trend , with in addition to that the proximity with a major resistance area , it seems to be a great opportunity to open a short trade at the current price (44.15€ approx.) :
- stop @ 45.20€
- first target @ 43€ (to close 50% of the position) (Reward/Risk = 1.09)
- second target @ 41.60€ (to close the other 50% of the position). (Reward/Risk = 2.42)
Don't hesitate to share your view about this stock in comments !
Oilstocks
Volume above average is the secret of this ideaPay attention to the volume average in the period M1 to H4. It indicates the amount of capital invested in selling transactions. The red line is the best position to get in.
If history repeats itself , this is probalble it OILFor about 100 years it does the same thing as you can see . In 74 they loved to say that the oil prices sized from 3 to 12$ a barrel .... They don't mention that around 80 it was about 119$ an also in 86 an 2000 around 20$-30$ . Now we are around the 30 -50$ , and probable it will stay that way for about 12 years .
Long term DNR elliot wave4th wave could still be underway, 5th wave to begin just before nov at 3.50. 5+?
Royal Dutch Shell trendline holdRDS bounced off the trendline support by closing above it. I am expecting a bounce or breakout from this resistance/support area we current are at.
interesting relationship between insy and wllim not going to add more oil companies because this is based on my personal stock picks atm. Just take a look at that price action
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016
Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future.
Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com