Oil crushing it's slippery slope NYMEX:MCL1!
After nearly a month of selling, oil seems to be taking back buyer's momentum that first started on July 17th, 2024 and ended on August 6th, 2024. When the creation of the "W" formed shortly after hitting a 10 min supply area, this signaled the last moments of Oil's sell trend. As we go into this week, we see that oil is still coming in hot to take back supply area's that it created on the 1hr timeframe, but it's due for a pullback. Depending on after market movements, we can possibly see Oil start to pullback to continue making buy structure to the upside. Oil has a good possibility to make it back to the areas of 83.50 and 84.50. Since in current time right now as I'm typing this, Oil has already broken 3 LH's (lower high) that were created between July 22nd, 2024 and August 1st, 2024. We can see pullbacks in the range of 78.84 and 77.12 to potentially see continuation of buying movements. Within this outlook, my current analysis is buyers market until price shows other signs.
Oiltechnicals
WTI Crude Oil - What a surprise! Incredible! 29.4The consolidation period of close to 12 weeks is likely coming to an end with a breakout up!
A close above 102.90 (triangle consolidation resistance level) allowed the price action to proceed with up-trend targeting:
*108.30-108.50
*114.80-115
*124
*132
Width of triangle is usually the target of the breakout in terms of size of movement
This could make sense fundamentally as inflation continues to grow together with Russian oil supply fears which is likely to fall by 20% , Europe may struggle with oil supply and this offsets China's lock down for now.
Of course this may be a fake out, weekly close and next weeks open is likely to call the bluff if price returns to below 100 with a daily close.
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WTI Crude Oil - The crossroad you need to know about !18.4 1) The breakout above the down trend-line starting from the highest high , when the price went above 101, marked the beginning of the movement we've seen so far (+$8).
2) There's 2 technical scenario playouts:
*Break above 108.20 with a 4h/1d close - 113.40 to 114.64 may be reached in the very short-term
*Break below 104.50 with a 4h/1d close - 97.90 to 93.20 may be reached in the very short-term
3) The circles on the chart mark the horizontal levels of support/resistance which play a very important role in price action.
4) Converging lows and highs are so far in the shape of a 'rising wedge" which could mean there's a higher potential for reversal down.
5) Fundamentally, oil is currently acting within an 'emotional' investor phase , which means in simple terms, there's no real shortage of oil so far - And reality may hit the price hard at any given time.
OPEC, Aramco, SHELL, USA all have capability to supply the entire world with oil if necessary.
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