OIL: THE CHART THAT COULD TIP THE WORLDWTI Crude just bounced hard off the $65 channel support, tagging resistance at $76 — and what happens next isn’t just about price. It’s about power.
Zoom into this chart:
We're sitting at a directional pivot with two possible outcomes:
1️⃣ If this was a truncated 5th wave, the structure is complete. Any further war escalation could be the catalyst for oil to break resistance — dragging down risk assets, including CRYPTOCAP:BTC and equities.
2️⃣ If wave 5 isn’t done, we’ll likely see one more sharp leg down before oil launches. Either way, this is a high-stakes Elliott Wave setup with global macro consequences.
Chart with FIB Levels:
You'll see the wave I’ve marked (3) is messy, and on lower timeframes, that may hint at a truncated move worth watching.
Why this matters:
Over 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint controlled by Iran. If conflict escalates, that line gets squeezed… and oil price explodes.
Price to watch:
$76 resistance.
If oil breaks, the markets will react fast.
If it fails, we might get one more correction and maybe some relief from the sideways pain we’ve seen across risk assets.
Remember the COVID Crash?
Oil literally went below zero in April 2020. That wasn't just a chart anomaly, it was a global demand collapse. Traders were paying to get rid of oil because there was nowhere to store it. That moment marked a generational low, and what followed was a powerful multi-year 5 wave up.
Now look where we are:
That same COVID low helped form the base of the current Elliott Wave structure. The fact we’re back testing levels that once sparked global panic is no coincidence.
If you’ve been here before, you’ll see the signs. The charts always leave traces. And if this is the end of wave 5, it could be the start of a whole new macro move.
TLDR:
Stop trading headlines.
Trade the structure.
This chart is telling us everything.
Oiltrading
Iran tensions rise: a setup brewing for gold and oil Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran might fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
A break above $3,403 might open the door for a test of the May high at $3,437. However, price action over the last two sessions potentially indicates that buyers are reluctant to drive spot prices above $3,400.
At the same time, analysts are suggesting that oil could climb toward $120 if Israel takes military action against Iran. “I don’t want to say it’s imminent, but it looks like something that could very well happen,” President Trump said during a White House event.
Meanwhile, cooler-than-expected US CPI and PPI prints have potentially strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates by September, with a second cut possibly following before year-end.
USOUL:Go long near 65.5
USOIL:Crude oil broke through the watershed 64.85 after the emergence of strong unilateral bulls, daily cycle relying on short-term average to go even Yang form, rising space has opened, pay attention to the strong will continue at least a few trading days, short-term relying on 65 defense needs to be more, pay attention to 65.5 near the long, see 66.7-67
Trading Strategy:
BUY@65.5
TP: 66.7-67
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WTI Crude Oil Stalls At Technical JunctureCrude oil has enjoyed a decent rally in recent weeks thanks to improved sentiment and OPEC+ scaling back production. Yet momentum turned against bulls on Tuesday, despite positive trade talks between the US and China. Today I discuss whether this could be a turning point for oil, or simply a bump in the road.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
WTI CRUDE OIL: Channel Down needing to fill its top. Bullish.WTI Crude Oil turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.137, MACD = 0.740, ADX = 26.844), having completed a very strong 1W candle last week. This is the continuation of the May 5th bottom rebound. All prior such rebounds have filled at least the 1W MA50, having touched the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. The 1W RSI LH trendline gives a good sense of where to sell, but since the 0.618 Fib is the guide, the target is TP = 71.15.
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Crude oil-----Sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil is still bearish, and we will continue to sell on rebounds. If it does not break 65.00, it will fluctuate. The general trend is bearish. If it breaks, we will adjust our thinking. Today's crude oil is the key. Will it start to take off before the data? The previous crude oil inventory data did not allow crude oil to break the position. The crude oil fluctuation range is 60.00-65.00. If it breaks this range, we will adjust our thinking on fluctuations.
Operational suggestions
Crude oil-----Sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00
Crude oil----sell near 64.00, target 63.00-60.00Crude oil market analysis:
Yesterday's crude oil still failed to rise. The buying price still failed to stand above 65.00 and was still fluctuating. Today, we continue to look at the range wave. We still consider selling it when it is close to 64. The crude oil inventory data does not give us much room for imagination. In addition, the recent fundamentals of crude oil are not strong, and they do not support the long position of crude oil, which has caused crude oil to fluctuate and hover. The current fluctuation range we see is 65.00-60.00.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil----sell near 64.00, target 63.00-60.00
USOIL:Go long
Crude oil prices rose due to ongoing tariff uncertainty as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
From the chart, the K line has repeatedly appeared long lower shadow small solid positive line, indicating that the lower buying long support is strong. Expected intraday crude oil short - term trend still exists a wave of upward space.
Trading Strategy:
BUY@62.5-62.6
TP: 63.5-64
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Crude oil futures Trade the range In this video I look at the current range that we are in and I have laid out a plan in the scenario that we break that range to the upside and what we could possibly expect .
I have given some reaction zones where I anticipate price to react when we reach there .
I have used Fibonacci, volume profile, and vwap in this video .
Thankyou for your support
WTI CRUDE OIL: Repeated rejections on the 1D MA50.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.483, MACD = -0.530, ADX = 16.270) as it is trading sideways for the past 2 weeks, unable however to cross above the 1D MA50, which along with the LH trendline, keep the trend bearish. Sell and aim for thr S1 level (TP = 56.00). Emerging Bearish Cross also on the 1D MACD.
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USOIL HEIST ALERT: Thief Entry Loaded – Target Locked!🚨 The Ultimate US OIL / WTI Heist Plan – Thief Trading Style 🎯💸
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We’re back with a slick WTI energy market heist based on our 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥—powered by a mix of technical & fundamental strategies. The vault is wide open and the bullish loot awaits!
🗺️ Strategy Brief:
We’re aiming for a clean bullish getaway near the high-risk MA zone—where traps are set and bearish robbers lurk. Watch out for overbought zones, trend reversals, and consolidation ambushes.
📈 Entry Point:
“The vault is open! Enter the bullish heist at will.”
Look to place Buy Limit Orders around swing highs/lows or pullback levels on the 15m–30m timeframe.
🛑 Stop Loss:
Set your Thief SL around the recent swing low using the 3H timeframe (example: 60.300).
Adjust based on your risk appetite, lot size, and number of entries.
🎯 Target: 65.200
That's where we celebrate the score, traders! 🥂💸
📊 Heist Justification (Fundamentals + Sentiment):
The WTI market is currently bullish, fueled by a mix of:
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✅ Inventory & storage dynamics
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BRENT outlook: Watching for a move toward the upper boundary (D)Price is currently trading within a broad range, and the main expectation is a move toward the upper boundary — but confirmation is key.
I'm watching the high of the May 22 bar as a key level, since it holds the highest traded volume in recent days.
If price breaks and holds above 64.987 ,
🎯 First target: 67.791
🎯 Second target: 68.619
Oil Prices Up as Trump Delays EU Tariffs (Temporary Relief?) The global oil market, a sensitive barometer of economic health and geopolitical stability, registered a slight uptick in prices following the news that the Trump administration would extend the deadline for imposing new tariffs on a range of European Union goods. This minor rally, however, comes against a backdrop of a broader downtrend that has characterized the oil markets since mid-January. The persistent downward pressure has been largely attributed to the chilling effect of existing and threatened tariffs, not just between the US and the EU, but on a global scale, which have cast a long shadow over the outlook for global energy demand.
To understand the significance of this deadline extension and its nuanced impact on oil prices, it's crucial to first appreciate the environment in which it occurred. For several months, the dominant narrative surrounding oil has been one of demand-side anxiety. President Trump's "America First" trade policy, which has seen the imposition of sweeping tariffs on goods from various countries, most notably China, and the persistent threat of more to come against allies like the European Union, has injected a significant dose of uncertainty into the global economic system.
Tariffs, at their core, are taxes on imported goods. Their imposition typically leads to a cascade of negative economic consequences. Businesses that rely on imported components face higher input costs, which can either be absorbed, thereby reducing profit margins, or passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Higher consumer prices can dampen spending, a key driver of economic growth. Furthermore, the uncertainty created by an unpredictable trade policy environment often leads businesses to postpone investment decisions and hiring, further stagnating economic activity.
This economic slowdown, or even the fear of it, directly translates into weaker demand for oil. Manufacturing activity, a significant consumer of energy, tends to decline. Global shipping and freight, which rely heavily on bunker fuel and diesel, slow down as trade volumes shrink. Consumer demand for gasoline and jet fuel can also wane if economic hardship leads to reduced travel and leisure activities. The retaliatory measures often taken by targeted nations – imposing their own tariffs on US goods – only serve to exacerbate this negative feedback loop, creating a tit-for-tat escalation that further erodes business confidence and global trade flows.
It is this overarching concern about a tariff-induced global economic slowdown that has been weighing heavily on oil prices since the middle of January. Market participants, from large institutional investors to commodity traders, have been pricing in the potential for significantly reduced oil consumption in the months and years ahead if these trade disputes were to escalate or become entrenched. Every new tariff announcement or threat has typically sent ripples of concern through the market, often pushing oil prices lower.
Against this gloomy backdrop, the news of an extension to the tariff deadline on EU goods, while not a resolution, acts as a momentary pause button on further immediate escalation. It offers a temporary reprieve, a brief window where the worst-case scenario of new, damaging tariffs being instantly applied is averted. This is likely why oil prices "edged higher."
The market's reaction can be interpreted in several ways. Firstly, it reflects a slight easing of immediate downside risk to the European economy. The EU is a massive economic bloc and a significant consumer of oil. The imposition of new US tariffs on key European goods, such as automobiles or luxury products, would undoubtedly have a detrimental impact on European industries, potentially tipping already fragile economies closer to recession. An extension of the deadline pushes this immediate threat further down the road, offering a sliver of hope that a negotiated solution might yet be found, or at least that the economic pain is deferred. This deferral, however slight, can lead to a marginal upward revision of short-term oil demand expectations from the region.
Secondly, the extension can be seen as a signal, however faint, that dialogue and negotiation are still possible. In the fraught world of international trade diplomacy, any indication that parties are willing to continue talking rather than immediately resorting to punitive measures can be interpreted positively by markets. It reduces, fractionally, the "uncertainty premium" that has been built into asset prices, including oil.
However, it is crucial to temper any optimism. The fact that oil only "edged higher" rather than surged indicates the market's deep-seated caution. An extension is not a cancellation. The underlying threat of tariffs remains very much on the table. The fundamental disagreements that led to the tariff threats in the first place have not been resolved. Therefore, while the immediate pressure point has been alleviated, the chronic condition of trade uncertainty persists.
The oil market is acutely aware that this extension could simply be a tactical move, buying time for political reasons without altering the fundamental trajectory of trade policy. If, at the end of the extended period, no agreement is reached and tariffs are indeed imposed, the negative impact on oil demand expectations would likely resurface with renewed force. The market is therefore likely to adopt a "wait and see" approach, with traders hesitant to make significant bullish bets based solely on a deadline postponement.
Furthermore, the US-EU trade dynamic is just one piece of a larger global puzzle. The ongoing trade tensions with China, for instance, continue to be a major drag on global growth projections and, by extension, oil demand. Progress, or lack thereof, on that front often has a more substantial impact on oil prices than developments in the US-EU relationship, given the sheer scale of US-China trade and China's role as the world's largest oil importer.
The slight rise in oil prices also needs to be seen in the context of other market-moving factors. Supply-side dynamics, such as OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East, and fluctuations in US shale output, constantly interact with demand-side sentiment. A deadline extension on EU tariffs might provide a small boost, but it can be easily overshadowed by a surprise inventory build, an unexpected increase in OPEC production, or signs of weakening economic data from other major economies.
In conclusion, the decision by the Trump administration to extend the tariff deadline on EU goods offered a moment of temporary relief to an oil market that has been under duress from trade war anxieties. This relief manifested as a marginal increase in oil prices, reflecting a slight reduction in immediate perceived risk to global economic activity and oil demand, particularly from Europe. However, this should not be mistaken for a fundamental shift in market sentiment or a resolution to the underlying trade disputes. The threat of tariffs remains, and the broader concerns about a global economic slowdown fueled by protectionist policies continue to loom large. The oil market's cautious reaction underscores the prevailing uncertainty, suggesting that while this extension provides a brief breathing space, the path ahead for oil prices will continue to be heavily influenced by the unpredictable currents of international trade policy.
USOIL:Long at 61.3-61.5
Last week's long target has been completed, the current decline is mainly due to concerns that global supply growth may exceed demand growth, from the technical trend, the objective trend of the middle line downward, short term long and short frequently alternate, pay attention to the support point of 60.3-60.5 within the day. Considering that it has been around this point of shock and not broken, short - term trading to do more.
So the trading strategy :BUY@61.3-61.5 TP@62.5-62.7
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USOIL:Go long first
Crude oil short-term trend to maintain weak shock upward rhythm, K line closed long lower shadow line, there are signs of rebound. Short - term moving average system gradually long arrangement, relying on oil prices, short - term objective trend direction to upward. It is expected that the intraday trend of crude oil will continue to extend upward, hitting around 62.8-63
Recommended Trading Strategies:
61-61.2 range to be long, short-term target to see 62, break through the target to see 62.8-63
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Mirror pattern calls for a sell.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.222, MACD = -0.370, ADX = 25.154) as the price is just under the 1D MA50, where it got rejected last Tuesday. In the meantime, it has the support of the 4H MA50, hence stuck inside a neutral range. This pattern is however identical to April, after which the price declined aggressively to the S1 level. Sell, TP = 56.00.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Bullish bounce off overlap support?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 59.97
1st Support: 57.60
1st Resistance: 63.27
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Crude oil------sell near 65.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis:
Gold has been moving recently, and crude oil has also moved with it. Yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big positive, and is currently testing the big pass near 65.00 on the weekly line. If this position is broken, we will be bullish on the long-term trend of crude oil. Today's crude oil idea is to rebound in the short term, and the general trend is bearish. Consider selling when it approaches 65.00 for the first time. 61.30 is the buying and receiving position. Pay attention to the inventory changes of crude oil later.
Operational suggestions:
Crude oil------sell near 65.00, target 63.00-62.00