Oiltrading
OPEC+ meeting incomingInitially postponed due to member disagreements, the OPEC+ meeting is now set for Thursday. Discussions are poised to delve into the consideration of deeper oil production cuts. Analysts foresee the potential extension or intensification of supply reductions into the coming year to stabilise oil prices, which currently hover around $80 a barrel. While the possibility of a collective reduction in output exists, specific details remain undisclosed.
The delay stemmed from disagreements over output levels for African producers. However, indications suggest a closer approach to reaching a compromise. The meeting's agenda features discussions by an advisory panel followed by a session with OPEC+ ministers. Notably, members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia previously committed to significant oil output cuts. Current discussions revolve around the continuation of these reductions, including Saudi's voluntary production cut and Russia's export reduction, both set to expire by year-end.
The likelihood of further oil cuts appears imminent, prompting us to refrain from offering a price prediction. However, I foresee a potential market shift—possibly a 1-2% increase if oil cuts are announced or a corresponding decrease in production sees an increase instead. My belief leans towards the former scenario. Nonetheless, any price hike might be short-lived as Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cuts are set to expire by year-end.
Henceforth, it pays to pay attention to this meeting and see what the fine details are.
Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction Update - W/C 20 Nov 2023Last Monday we posted our weekly price prediction for Brent Crude Oil.
The chart above is our analysis. You can see further analysis in our previous post.
Our price prediction for last week was between $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max).
As you can see from the chart below our analysis proved true. The price stayed within the range. However, it followed the bearish indications more so than the bullish indications.
The price hit the blue line resistance levels and proceeded to go down. Following the resistance line and finding some support in the High Volume Node from the Fixed Range Volume Profile.
There are also fundamental factors at play here as well. OPEC+ delayed their meeting due on 26th November by four days due to conflicting opinions in the organisation, this is what also led to the price decline.
If you had shorted the stock once it hit the blue line resistance level it would have netted you around 3.30% ROI to the current price. Not bad for a week.
Crude oil range trading
Crude oil continued its downward trend at the opening on Monday, and its rebound at $75.7 once again encountered resistance and declined, indicating a bearish trend. Looking at the daily trend chart, the daily level has been negative for three consecutive times. Although there is no new low quotation, the high price has not been broken, indicating that an adjustment in crude oil prices is expected.
After the oil price broke down continuously in the early stage, after hitting a new low of 72.3, the oil price rose to 78.43. However, after the subsequent oil price retracement, there was no continuation of the bulls. At this stage, it is in a triangle shock. If there is no breakthrough of the previous high, There are signs that there will be a high probability of a continued downward break.
Oil prices currently focus on resistance 77.5-78.3 and support 73.7
Overall bearish
WTI Price Stability Around $75 Amid OPEC+ Cut ExpectationsWestern Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark crude oil, is currently trading near $75.05 as of Tuesday. WTI prices show modest gains, supported by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will extend oil production cuts in the upcoming Thursday meeting.
Amid the recent oil price slump, analysts predict that OPEC+ might consider extending or deepening production cuts into the next year. Saudi Arabia, the world's major oil exporter, is expected to prolong its supply cuts by an additional 1 million barrels per day into the next year, while Russia may contemplate further supply reductions of 300,000 barrels per day. If OPEC+ decides on deeper production cuts next year, it could restrain the downward momentum of WTI prices.
Furthermore, China is set to release National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Thursday. Better-than-expected data might uplift WTI prices, considering China's significant role as the world's leading producer and consumer of oil.
On the flip side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a mild surplus in crude oil production by 2024, even with OPEC+ extending cuts into the following year. Additionally, robust production from non-OPEC countries like the U.S. could contribute to price pressure.
Traders in the oil market will closely monitor U.S. growth figures on Wednesday, with the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 expected to rise by 5%, up from the previous 4.9%. On Thursday, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and China's NBS PMI data will be announced. The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend will be crucial for oil traders, as these events could significantly impact WTI prices in USD. Oil traders will interpret signals from the data and explore trading opportunities around WTI prices.
Oil Continues to Decline Ahead of OPEC MeetingAs the global demand for oil continues to decline, coupled with the upcoming OPEC meeting, it is crucial to approach this situation with caution and strategic planning.
Over the past few months, we have witnessed a steady decline in oil prices, primarily driven by various factors such as geopolitical tensions and a shift towards renewable energy sources. This downward trend has created a potential opening for traders who are keen on shorting oil.
The upcoming OPEC meeting adds an additional layer of complexity to the situation. As market participants eagerly await the decisions and actions of major oil-producing nations, it is essential to stay informed and remain adaptable to potential market fluctuations.
While the opportunity to short oil may seem enticing, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent risks and volatility associated with this trade. As experienced traders, you understand the importance of conducting thorough research, analyzing market trends, and implementing risk management strategies.
To maximize your chances of success, I encourage you to consider the following steps:
1. Stay updated: Continuously monitor the latest news and developments surrounding the oil market and the upcoming OPEC meeting. This will help you identify potential catalysts that may impact oil prices.
2. Utilize technical analysis: Leverage technical indicators and charts to identify key support and resistance levels, as well as potential reversal patterns. This will assist you in timing your trades effectively.
3. Implement risk management: Set clear stop-loss orders and determine your acceptable risk levels. This will help protect your capital and ensure you have a disciplined approach to trading.
4. Diversify your portfolio: Consider spreading your risk by exploring other trading opportunities within different sectors or asset classes. This will help mitigate potential losses and increase your chances of overall profitability.
Remember, trading oil requires a cautious approach and a keen eye for market trends. While the current downtrend presents an opportunity, it is crucial to remain vigilant and adapt your strategies as new information emerges.
Should you require any further assistance or have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out in the comments. . I am here to provide the necessary guidance and support to help you navigate this volatile market.
OPEC Close to Agreeing Product Cut as African Countries I wanted to draw your attention to recent developments within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that could potentially impact the oil market significantly. It appears that OPEC is inching closer to reaching an agreement on production cuts, as several African countries have now joined forces.
Over the past few weeks, discussions within OPEC have intensified, with member countries grappling with the ongoing challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on global oil demand. The recent addition of African nations, including Nigeria, Angola, and Gabon, to the group's production cut efforts, has injected a new sense of optimism into the market. This collective action aims to stabilize oil prices and reduce the global supply glut that has been weighing heavily on the industry.
However, it is important to approach this development with caution. While the prospect of OPEC reaching an agreement is encouraging, we must acknowledge the inherent uncertainties that still loom over the market. The success of any production cut deal relies on the commitment and adherence of all participating countries, which historically has been a challenge.
Moreover, the global economic recovery remains fragile, and the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in several countries poses a significant threat to oil demand. Any setbacks in the containment of the virus could further dampen the prospects of a sustained oil price recovery.
Considering these factors, it would be prudent to exercise caution when considering investment decisions. As always, thorough analysis and risk management should guide your trading strategies. While the potential for shorting oil may seem compelling given the current situation, it is essential to carefully evaluate the associated risks and consult with your financial advisor.
In conclusion, the news of OPEC's progress towards a production cut agreement, coupled with the involvement of African countries, certainly warrants attention. However, the volatile nature of the oil market demands a cautious approach. As traders, it is crucial to stay informed, adapt to evolving circumstances, and make well-informed decisions based on comprehensive analysis.
Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions or require further insights. Wishing you successful trading ahead!
oil forecast - buy or sell? triangle pattern for oil, i think this will be good position and good ratio (Risk-reward)
WTI Crude Oil Trading: An In-Depth Analysis of a Bearish TrendDear Esteemed TradingView Members,
I n the ever-evolving world of finance and trading, staying ahead of the curve is essential for success. If you're part of the exclusive audience of elite business professionals and investors, you understand the importance of precise market analysis and informed decision-making. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of WTI Crude Oil trading to provide you with valuable insights and a sophisticated outlook on the current market.
Decoding the WTI Crude Oil Market
M ACD Indicator Insights: The WTI Crude Oil market has witnessed a bearish trend since September 28, 2023, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) at the bottom of the chart. While MACD continues to display bearish signals, it's vital to remember that this is a lagging indicator, reflecting historical trends. As sophisticated investors, we must recognize that historical behavior does not guarantee future outcomes. The world and its dynamics are in a constant state of flux, with each trading day being a unique entity shaped by ever-evolving global events.
D eep Neural Analytics Perspective: Here's where our analysis takes an intriguing turn. Deep Neural Analytics suggests the possibility of WTI Crude Oil being oversold. Historically, when MACD levels have reached this point, a bullish pull-up often follows. However, it's important to approach this insight cautiously. Global news and unforeseen developments can significantly impact oil markets. While historic trends provide valuable guidance, they are not absolute predictors of future behavior.
T he Support Zone: According to volume metrics, the current support zone (indicated by the upper blue rectangle) ranging from $77 to $84 also serves as a demand zone. If market sentiment remains positive and bearish news doesn't disrupt the status quo, this zone could transition into a consolidation platform. A consolidation zone acts as a springboard for investors to accumulate positions and potentially drive the price to the next resistance zone, which might fall within the range of $94 to $100 (as depicted by the purple rectangle).
A lternative Scenarios: If buyers fail to sustain the current support zone, or if external factors challenge investor sentiment, the next potential demand zone lies between $63.5 and $71 (as illustrated by the bottom blue rectangle). Should this scenario unfold, it would necessitate a reassessment to determine its suitability for a possible reversal. Theoretically, if oil doesn't reverse from the current demand zone, it could find its turning point in the alternate demand zone. These scenarios, however, are long-term considerations, while the current situation sees oil consistently falling below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) like EMA 20/50/100/200.
U nderstanding Sustainability: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicators play a pivotal role in comprehending the sustainability of trends. Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) applied to EMAs and oil prices suggest that the bearish trend may persist until February 2024 or potentially longer. Despite MACD indicating that oil is oversold, GBMs on EMAs advise against forecasting an immediate bullish trend. This underscores the importance of not relying solely on one indicator.
The Road Ahead
I n the realm of WTI Crude Oil trading, informed decision-making is key. The markets are driven by a complex interplay of variables, making the role of a sophisticated investor all the more crucial. Without bullish news and indicators, WTI Crude Oil continues to display bearish tendencies and may maintain this trajectory for the foreseeable future.
Remember, this analysis serves as a guide, not an investment recommendation. Conduct thorough research, safeguard your funds, and take full responsibility for your investment choices. The dynamic nature of financial markets requires vigilance, and with the right insights, you can navigate the WTI Crude Oil landscape with confidence and wisdom.
Kind regards,
Ely
Crude Oil Review and Forecast
API Actual: 9.047M
API Consensus: 1.467M
EIA Crude Import Actual 0.259M
EIA Crude Import Previous: -0.385M
EIA Crude stock Actual: 8.701M
EIA Crude stock consensus: 1.160M
As Saudi Oil production had shrunk to nine million barrels per day in July since its last OPEC meeting with Russia to restrict supply amid signs of weakening global demand in slowing economy, Saudi, the largest oil supplier in the world had expressed its opinion on keeping the production to remain low until the end of this year. As foreseen through such decisions from the major suppliers, the most recent Crude inventory within the states has turned out to be way larger than expected.
Since September of 2023, the Crude oil future TVC:USOIL plunged by $-22.35 (-23.62%) to $72.28 per barrel during the last week trading session. Slower than expected recovery in economic activities(PPI Nov 2023) adding fear of the constant weakening of the oil demand, forecasting a skeptical view towards a short term recovery of the oil demand and its price as well.
The key major resistances are as follow:
Top: $77.8
Mid: $75.5
Low: $72.12
The weekly upside trend is still the last hope for the Bullish traders.
Once both the Four-hours and the daily candles closes below the $64-60 zone, we will then be able to finalize on such ambiguous consensus.
With OPEC+ meeting pushed back to this weekends, every commodity investors focus is on the meeting report, hoping for the decision to give them the better foresight of the future of the market.
The Best Futures Trading Hours in Crude:
CL opens for trading on the floor, called the pit session at 9AM EST
European trading closes at 11:30 AM EST
The best hours for trading are the most liquid, between 9:00AM and 11:30AM
Pit session closes at 2:30PM EST, when floor trading stops for the day
Therefore, the best trading in the afternoon is the last hour between 1:30PM to 2:30PM EST
Expected to rise
International oil prices rose more than 2% on Monday amid widespread expectations that OPEC+ will announce further production cuts after a meeting of member states early next week. Traders are eyeing potential speculative buying in crude oil trading as global risk sentiment appears to be strengthening and optimism returns among financial institutions.
Crude oil continued its rebound trend and reached the pressure level, but was blocked and fell back. It is still falling back and adjusting. Since the bulls' main bottom-buying signals appeared continuously below, it has rebounded relatively slightly. At present, it should continue to fluctuate and adjust.
Crude oil will currently fluctuate in the range of 78.8-75.5.
Light Crude Oil Futures Short Setup and potential Long
Expecting some sideways before a move up into the 78.50 region and a pull back to the levels shown .
Aside from the confluences I have documented , this plan also correlates well with my USD outlook .
I will wait for the short and have alerts set but there is also a long from around 75.20ish if you wanted to take the move up beforehand.
Of course this analysis could easily change so manage your risk accordingly with your trading plan .
Support my work with a Like and Follow for future Analysis.
Oil price passes the first positive targetHello everyone,Oil price is trying to confirm the breach of the descending channel resistance, to support the continuation of the expected bullish trend for today, whose targets start at 77.86, noting that breaching this level will extend the bullish wave to reach 79.32 as a next positive station.
On the other hand, it is necessary to note that breaking 76.35 and holding below it will return the price to the downward path, heading towards visiting the 74.81level mainly.
Resistance prices: 79.32 & 81.23 & 82.81
Support prices: 74.81 & 72.46 & 69.53
The general trend expected for today: bullish
CRUDE OIL ALL PERSPECTIVE OF CHART Currently, all the movements I look at and position myself differently. It is important to show yourself all the possibilities and get rid of your emotions
if I see that the ABC correction is (LONG), it can easily lead to scam wick, which is also not excluded(SETUP-LONG) + Head and Shoulders Pattern(SETUP-LONG). Also, this could be an even bigger drop(Biggest leg down), which is my last option due to the economic situation
Acceptance below 200 and 50 Weekly Moving Average(SETUP-SHORT)
Crude oil range trading
Crude oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive week last week. A substantial increase in inventories and record production were the main reasons for the decline in crude oil prices last week. The entire market has been weak recently due to supply concerns and a significant drop in demand. However, on Friday due to some short sellers Oil prices rose as profit-taking and U.S. sanctions on Russian crude shippers gave oil prices a bit of support.
Market focus this week shifts to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting to discuss further production cuts, which could increase tensions with the United States, while the market focuses on whether Saudi Arabia and Russia extend voluntary production cuts until 2024
Crude oil support and resistance levels will continue to move upward.
Crude oil is currently trading in a range. Support level 74.5 Resistance level 77.8
YPF (NYSE: YPF) Lead Argentine Stock RallyThe U.S.-listed shares of YPF SA (YPF) shot up 24.3% toward a one-month high in premarket trading Monday, as investors in the Argentina-based oil and gas company cheered the election of right-wing populist Javier Milei as the new president of Argentina.
The stock's rally was part of a broad gains in share of other Argentina-based companies, as the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF soared 12.2%, to put it on track to open at the highest price seen during regular-session hours since Sept. 5.
Technical Analysist
Price Momentum
YPF is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Crude oil bearish
After failing to break through 80 this week, crude oil fell again to around 75.56 after the US EIA inventory data emerged yesterday. There is currently no good news for crude oil in the market.
The overall trend of crude oil is very weak, showing a slow falling trend. After breaking above the moving average, oil prices did not stand firm but fell back and fell below again. The pressure on the daily line is still very strong.
Crude oil is currently bearish, and you can pay attention to trading in the 73.5-77.8 range.
sell Oil now!The light crude oil futures market, with a current daily price of $73.18, is positioned below the 50-day moving average of $84.78, indicating a bearish trend in the short term. It’s also below the 200-day moving average of $78.11, reinforcing this bearish sentiment.
The price hovers above the minor support level of $72.48 and is significantly above the main support at $66.85, suggesting that there might be some level of buying interest preventing a further drop.
The proximity to the minor resistance at $77.43 could indicate potential challenges in upward price movements.
Considering these technical indicators, the market sentiment leans towards bearish, with room for fluctuations near the minor support and resistance levels.
📈🛢️US Oil Daily prediction 🛢️📉TVC:USOIL
FX:USOILSPOT
Before we predict the next week, let's take a look at the trend of the oil chart.
The price continues to move in a downward trend. Due to the support area, we can expect a rise in oil price to the previous high level.
If this uptrend fails, the price will reach lower targets below 77$.
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Oil WTI (Next Moving)Hello everyone, Oil price is testing the key resistance of 73.70, which is positively influenced by the stochastic index, the price needs to be below this level for the bearish trend scenario to remain valid, which has the next target at 72.12.
On the other hand, it should be noted that the confirmation of the breach of 73.70 will push the price to move higher creating a bullish wave targeting the 75.35 areas initially.
Pivot Price: 73.70
Resistance prices: 75.35 & 76.47 & 78.79
Support prices: 72.12 & 70.95 & 69.53
WTI bears eye a move down to $80Last week's swing trade to $90 worked out well, yet momentum ha since shifted lower.
I noted in the recent COT report that managed funds and large speculators have been trimming long exposure in recent weeks, and that managed funds increased short exposure last week despite the slew of negative headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict. This also coincided with the two small bullish weekly candles, which appeared to be corrective on the weekly chart - and therfore suggests lower prices.
A lower high has formed below $90 and momentum turned lower. As support has been found around the Jan/April highs, we suspect a bounce is due. And this could allow bears to fade into favourable prices below $87 - $87.50 on the assumption a breakdown is pending ahead of its move to $80.
Should this be part of a larger decline, note that $75 and $70 are near the 100% and 138.2% Fibonacci projection levels on the daily chart.
WTI CRUDE OIL: At the bottom of the 6 week Channel Down.WTI Crude Oil hit today the bottom LL trendline of the six week Channel Down, turning oversold on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 31.036, MACD = -2.860, ADX = 46.284). That alone is a strong medium term buy signal, aiming at a +10.15% rise (TP = 79.50), which is how much the previous bullish leg of the Channel rose by. That is where the R1 level is also (79.75) and depending on how aggressive the rally will be, it may even extend as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci level (again same as the October 20th LH) and test the 1D MA50.
Keep in mind that the 1W MA200 is slightly lower and is the level that supported WTI on many successive tests from March till June, closing all 1D candles over it. Also the last time the 1D RSI broke the 30.00 oversold level was on March 17th and a very aggressive rebound followed.
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Long term bullish
Oil prices have risen in recent days on the back of a bullish outlook from OPEC+'s monthly report and the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a monthly report on Tuesday that raised its crude oil demand growth forecast for this year and next.
Oil prices have been range-bound due to signs that tensions in the Middle East may be easing and uncertainty about U.S. oil inventories. The U.S. dollar index fell sharply to a more than two-month low after U.S. CPI data was weaker than market expectations, and the International Energy Agency ( The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for crude oil demand, and oil prices once hit a one-week high.
The trend of crude oil fluctuated upward and continued to be blocked near 80, forming a repetitive rhythm of alternating main and main markets. The current support level of 77.3 and resistance level of 80 are very strong.
Crude oil will more likely fluctuate within this range. Watch today's EIA data.
Long term bullish
