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Oiltrading

No bullish sign Crude oil fell below 70, with no bullish signals in the short to medium term. Oil prices have continued to fall since the second rebound in late October failed, and eventually formed a downward trend. Oil prices have hit the August low of 77.80. Oil prices showed a minor shock pattern around the lows, forming a flag relay pattern. Oil prices successfully fell below the lower edge of the flag pattern. Overall, oil prices have been weak, facing pressure from a variety of sources, including oversupply, doubts about planned production cuts, global economic uncertainty and weak gasoline demand. Investors will pay close attention to market dynamics to obtain signals on the future trend of oil prices. The focus this week will be Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls data. Oil prices are currently bearish, pay attention to 71.5 above.
VANTAGE:CL-OILShort
by Anthony-Ryan
WTI CRUDE OIL: Below the 1W MA200. Critical Support to hold.WTI Crude Oil crossed today under the 1W MA200, which is a level that, even though it broke on occassions this year, hasn't closed a 1D candle under it since February 1st 2021. Those occasions are marked by circles on your chart and as you see despite breaking under it, the price rose intraday closing the candles over the 1W MA200 at the end of those sessions, essentially holding it as long term Support. It is now critical therefore for buyers to hold the 1W MA200 and push the candle above it before the closing bell today. The 1D technical outlook is strongly bearish (RSI = 31.049, MACD = -2.590, ADX = 35.758), which is normal considering that the commodity has been trading inside a Channel Down since the September 28th High. However having touched the 30.000 oversold level on the 1D RSI, it makes the case for a rebound stronger, since every time it gold oversold during this (almost) 2 year span, an aggressive rebound followed. Consequently, as long as the 1D candles close over the 1W MA200, we will be buying and aming for the top of the Channel Down (TP = 76.50) and potentially the 1D MA50. If however the candle closes under it, we will aim for the 1.786 Fibonacci extension (TP = 66.50) as the November 8th Lower Low did. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOIL
by InvestingScope
Range trading The market's reaction to OPEC+'s announcement of voluntary production cuts was a further decline in oil prices. According to reports, investors were pessimistic about crude oil ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and had already priced in their expectations that production cuts would not be enough to push oil prices higher. The market's economic recession and investors' disappointed attitude towards crude oil have caused oil prices to continue to fall despite production cuts. At present, crude oil pays attention to the resistance level of 75 and the support level of 72. The current market situation is still range trading and there will be no one-sided situation.
TVC:USOILShort
by Anthony-Ryan
Crude Oil Bullish Crude prices rose as a weaker dollar and optimism that major oil producers could extend ongoing production cuts at an OPEC+ meeting later this week boosted sentiment. Although the market is still paying close attention to the production of non-OPEC countries, various positive factors have provided positive external support for oil prices. Investors' expectations for the OPEC+ meeting have kept the market cautiously optimistic about future oil prices. Secondly, the combination of a weaker dollar, expectations of production cuts, and supply concerns have driven up oil prices. Judging from the current trend of crude oil, as long as it does not fall below 74.4, oil prices will give priority to rising to test the 79.3-80 area. We also need to pay attention to the key position 75.8.
VANTAGE:CL-OILLong
by Anthony-Ryan
1
Evaluating OPEC+ Compliance Levels for Cautious Oil TradingAs you are aware, the upcoming OPEC+ member countries to implement potential oil-supply cuts has sparked considerable interest and speculation within the trading community. Today, I would like to draw your attention to the importance of evaluating the compliance levels of these member countries and how it presents a potential opportunity for cautious oil trading. The proposed oil-supply cuts have been designed to stabilize oil prices amidst the ongoing global economic uncertainties. However, it is crucial to assess the actual compliance of OPEC+ member countries with these agreed-upon cuts. By doing so, we can gain valuable insights into the potential impact on global oil supply and demand dynamics. To effectively evaluate compliance levels, it is recommended to closely monitor official statements, production data, and any relevant news updates from OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Analyzing these factors will provide a clearer understanding of how closely member countries are adhering to their commitments. While evaluating compliance levels, it is important to maintain a cautious approach towards trading oil. The current market conditions are highly volatile and unpredictable, influenced by various geopolitical and economic factors. It is advisable to exercise prudence and carefully assess the potential risks associated with any trading decisions. In light of the potential opportunities arising from the evaluation of compliance levels, I encourage you to consider engaging in oil trading. However, it is crucial to approach this market with a cautious mindset, ensuring that you have a well-thought-out trading strategy in place. Diversification and risk management should be at the forefront of your decision-making process. As always, it is essential to stay informed and updated on the latest developments in the oil market. By leveraging reliable sources of information, you can make informed trading decisions and navigate the market with greater confidence. In conclusion, evaluating the compliance levels of OPEC+ member countries with the proposed oil-supply cuts presents an opportunity for cautious oil trading. However, it is imperative to remain vigilant, assess the risks involved, and develop a sound trading strategy that aligns with your risk appetite. Should you require any further information or assistance in evaluating compliance levels or refining your trading strategy, please do not hesitate to comment below. Thank you for your attention, and I wish you successful and prudent trading in these challenging times.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Are OPEC+ voluntary cuts enough to support oil prices?After the latest OPEC+ meeting, the price of WTI crude oil dropped more than 2% to $75 per barrel, ending a two-day win streak. During the meeting, OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production early next year by almost 2 million barrels per day (bpd). This decision was spurred by worries about having too much oil in the market coinciding with the end of Saudi Arabia's voluntary 1 million bpd cut. Saudi Arabia said it would continue its cut until at least the first quarter of 2024. Russia also extended its cut to 500,000 bpd for the first quarter. Iraq agreed to reduce output by 211,000 bpd, and UAE pledged to cut 160,000 bpd in the first quarter. However, OPEC+ also invited Brazil to join the group. Brazil said they plan to join in January and increase their daily oil output to 3.8 million barrels, countering the other members pledges to cut production and support prices.
BLACKBULL:USOIL.F
by BlackBull_Markets
7 Dimension Analysis For OIL🕛 TOPDOWN Analysis - Monthly Bullish Structure, Weekly Bearish Inducement Overview: The monthly market structure maintains a bullish stance, holding key supports. On the weekly chart, a valid low was established, accompanied by a strong bearish inducement. While a demand flip occurred, the overall trend remains bearish, marked by a record session count and inside candle price action. The daily time frame reveals a bearish swing structure with impulsive moves, indicating potential further downside. 😇 7 Dimension Analysis Time Frame: Daily 1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish 🟢 Structure Behavior: ChoCh 🟢 Swing Move: Impulsive 🟢 Inducement: Suggests potential further downward movement. 🟢 Pull Back: No significant pullback observed. 🟢 Resistance Zones: Market encounters resistance at every supply zone post- ChoCh, forming a bearish build-up, indicating potential future downside. No traps observed. 2️⃣ Pattern 🟢 CHART PATTERNS Continuation Symmetric Triangle Shakeout Continuation 🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS Notable Observations: Momentum candles with Fake out/FOMO. Tweezer at the internal move top. Inside candles in the last three days. 3️⃣ Volume: Significant volumes observed at the beginning of the move. 4️⃣ Momentum RSI: 🟢 RSI Below 40: Indicates a super bearish zone with high selling pressure. 🟢 Range Shift: Shifted sideways to bearish, suggesting ongoing bearish activity. 🟢 Divergence: Hidden bearish divergence present. 5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands: 🟢 Middle Band Resistance: Strong rejection observed. 🟢 Head fake: At the top of the move, indicating a potential deep bearish move. ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H1 ✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish ☑️ Current Move: Impulsive Bearish ✔ Support Resistance Base: Takes resistance at a significant level. ☑️ Candles Behavior: Extremely volatile bearish momentum. ☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Confirmed. ☑️ Final Comments: Sell at the open. 💡 Decision: Sell 🚀 Entry: 75.22 ✋ Stop Loss: 78.04 🎯 Take Profit: 68.07, 2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Exit on a trendline breakout or FOMO. 😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:3.5 🕛 Expected Duration: 7 days SUMMARY: The analysis reveals a monthly bullish structure but a weekly bearish inducement. The daily swing structure is bearish with an ongoing impulsive bearish move. Recognized patterns include a symmetric triangle and shakeout continuation. Critical levels, candle patterns, and trendline breakouts were considered for the entry decision. The suggestion is to sell at the open, with detailed entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, presenting a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3.5, and an expected duration of 7 days.
TVC:USOILShort
by Optimum369
Crude oil market analysis The OPEC+ meeting has been postponed, and the market has doubts about whether oil-producing countries can insist on extending production cuts. As well as the recent weak performance of U.S. economic data, the margins of supply and demand are weak, which is not conducive to higher oil prices. The OPEC+ meeting at the end of the month will be the highlight of the oil market, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mood. Before OPEC+ announces a new production policy, oil prices may maintain a volatile adjustment. Current trading is around the 73.5-77.2 range
VANTAGE:CL-OIL
by Anthony-Ryan
OPEC+ meeting incomingInitially postponed due to member disagreements, the OPEC+ meeting is now set for Thursday. Discussions are poised to delve into the consideration of deeper oil production cuts. Analysts foresee the potential extension or intensification of supply reductions into the coming year to stabilise oil prices, which currently hover around $80 a barrel. While the possibility of a collective reduction in output exists, specific details remain undisclosed. The delay stemmed from disagreements over output levels for African producers. However, indications suggest a closer approach to reaching a compromise. The meeting's agenda features discussions by an advisory panel followed by a session with OPEC+ ministers. Notably, members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia previously committed to significant oil output cuts. Current discussions revolve around the continuation of these reductions, including Saudi's voluntary production cut and Russia's export reduction, both set to expire by year-end. The likelihood of further oil cuts appears imminent, prompting us to refrain from offering a price prediction. However, I foresee a potential market shift—possibly a 1-2% increase if oil cuts are announced or a corresponding decrease in production sees an increase instead. My belief leans towards the former scenario. Nonetheless, any price hike might be short-lived as Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cuts are set to expire by year-end. Henceforth, it pays to pay attention to this meeting and see what the fine details are.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Prediction Update - W/C 20 Nov 2023Last Monday we posted our weekly price prediction for Brent Crude Oil. The chart above is our analysis. You can see further analysis in our previous post. Our price prediction for last week was between $78.00 (Min) and $87.50 (Max). As you can see from the chart below our analysis proved true. The price stayed within the range. However, it followed the bearish indications more so than the bullish indications. The price hit the blue line resistance levels and proceeded to go down. Following the resistance line and finding some support in the High Volume Node from the Fixed Range Volume Profile. There are also fundamental factors at play here as well. OPEC+ delayed their meeting due on 26th November by four days due to conflicting opinions in the organisation, this is what also led to the price decline. If you had shorted the stock once it hit the blue line resistance level it would have netted you around 3.30% ROI to the current price. Not bad for a week.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
Crude oil range trading Crude oil continued its downward trend at the opening on Monday, and its rebound at $75.7 once again encountered resistance and declined, indicating a bearish trend. Looking at the daily trend chart, the daily level has been negative for three consecutive times. Although there is no new low quotation, the high price has not been broken, indicating that an adjustment in crude oil prices is expected. After the oil price broke down continuously in the early stage, after hitting a new low of 72.3, the oil price rose to 78.43. However, after the subsequent oil price retracement, there was no continuation of the bulls. At this stage, it is in a triangle shock. If there is no breakthrough of the previous high, There are signs that there will be a high probability of a continued downward break. Oil prices currently focus on resistance 77.5-78.3 and support 73.7 Overall bearish
VANTAGE:CL-OILShort
by Anthony-Ryan
WTI Price Stability Around $75 Amid OPEC+ Cut ExpectationsWestern Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark crude oil, is currently trading near $75.05 as of Tuesday. WTI prices show modest gains, supported by expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will extend oil production cuts in the upcoming Thursday meeting. Amid the recent oil price slump, analysts predict that OPEC+ might consider extending or deepening production cuts into the next year. Saudi Arabia, the world's major oil exporter, is expected to prolong its supply cuts by an additional 1 million barrels per day into the next year, while Russia may contemplate further supply reductions of 300,000 barrels per day. If OPEC+ decides on deeper production cuts next year, it could restrain the downward momentum of WTI prices. Furthermore, China is set to release National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on Thursday. Better-than-expected data might uplift WTI prices, considering China's significant role as the world's leading producer and consumer of oil. On the flip side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a mild surplus in crude oil production by 2024, even with OPEC+ extending cuts into the following year. Additionally, robust production from non-OPEC countries like the U.S. could contribute to price pressure. Traders in the oil market will closely monitor U.S. growth figures on Wednesday, with the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 expected to rise by 5%, up from the previous 4.9%. On Thursday, U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and China's NBS PMI data will be announced. The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend will be crucial for oil traders, as these events could significantly impact WTI prices in USD. Oil traders will interpret signals from the data and explore trading opportunities around WTI prices.
TVC:USOIL
by oraleeogwynn1725
Oil Continues to Decline Ahead of OPEC MeetingAs the global demand for oil continues to decline, coupled with the upcoming OPEC meeting, it is crucial to approach this situation with caution and strategic planning. Over the past few months, we have witnessed a steady decline in oil prices, primarily driven by various factors such as geopolitical tensions and a shift towards renewable energy sources. This downward trend has created a potential opening for traders who are keen on shorting oil. The upcoming OPEC meeting adds an additional layer of complexity to the situation. As market participants eagerly await the decisions and actions of major oil-producing nations, it is essential to stay informed and remain adaptable to potential market fluctuations. While the opportunity to short oil may seem enticing, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent risks and volatility associated with this trade. As experienced traders, you understand the importance of conducting thorough research, analyzing market trends, and implementing risk management strategies. To maximize your chances of success, I encourage you to consider the following steps: 1. Stay updated: Continuously monitor the latest news and developments surrounding the oil market and the upcoming OPEC meeting. This will help you identify potential catalysts that may impact oil prices. 2. Utilize technical analysis: Leverage technical indicators and charts to identify key support and resistance levels, as well as potential reversal patterns. This will assist you in timing your trades effectively. 3. Implement risk management: Set clear stop-loss orders and determine your acceptable risk levels. This will help protect your capital and ensure you have a disciplined approach to trading. 4. Diversify your portfolio: Consider spreading your risk by exploring other trading opportunities within different sectors or asset classes. This will help mitigate potential losses and increase your chances of overall profitability. Remember, trading oil requires a cautious approach and a keen eye for market trends. While the current downtrend presents an opportunity, it is crucial to remain vigilant and adapt your strategies as new information emerges. Should you require any further assistance or have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out in the comments. . I am here to provide the necessary guidance and support to help you navigate this volatile market.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln
OPEC Close to Agreeing Product Cut as African Countries I wanted to draw your attention to recent developments within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that could potentially impact the oil market significantly. It appears that OPEC is inching closer to reaching an agreement on production cuts, as several African countries have now joined forces. Over the past few weeks, discussions within OPEC have intensified, with member countries grappling with the ongoing challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on global oil demand. The recent addition of African nations, including Nigeria, Angola, and Gabon, to the group's production cut efforts, has injected a new sense of optimism into the market. This collective action aims to stabilize oil prices and reduce the global supply glut that has been weighing heavily on the industry. However, it is important to approach this development with caution. While the prospect of OPEC reaching an agreement is encouraging, we must acknowledge the inherent uncertainties that still loom over the market. The success of any production cut deal relies on the commitment and adherence of all participating countries, which historically has been a challenge. Moreover, the global economic recovery remains fragile, and the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in several countries poses a significant threat to oil demand. Any setbacks in the containment of the virus could further dampen the prospects of a sustained oil price recovery. Considering these factors, it would be prudent to exercise caution when considering investment decisions. As always, thorough analysis and risk management should guide your trading strategies. While the potential for shorting oil may seem compelling given the current situation, it is essential to carefully evaluate the associated risks and consult with your financial advisor. In conclusion, the news of OPEC's progress towards a production cut agreement, coupled with the involvement of African countries, certainly warrants attention. However, the volatile nature of the oil market demands a cautious approach. As traders, it is crucial to stay informed, adapt to evolving circumstances, and make well-informed decisions based on comprehensive analysis. Please feel free to reach out if you have any questions or require further insights. Wishing you successful trading ahead!
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
WTI Crude Oil Trading: An In-Depth Analysis of a Bearish TrendDear Esteemed TradingView Members, I n the ever-evolving world of finance and trading, staying ahead of the curve is essential for success. If you're part of the exclusive audience of elite business professionals and investors, you understand the importance of precise market analysis and informed decision-making. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of WTI Crude Oil trading to provide you with valuable insights and a sophisticated outlook on the current market. Decoding the WTI Crude Oil Market M ACD Indicator Insights: The WTI Crude Oil market has witnessed a bearish trend since September 28, 2023, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) at the bottom of the chart. While MACD continues to display bearish signals, it's vital to remember that this is a lagging indicator, reflecting historical trends. As sophisticated investors, we must recognize that historical behavior does not guarantee future outcomes. The world and its dynamics are in a constant state of flux, with each trading day being a unique entity shaped by ever-evolving global events. D eep Neural Analytics Perspective: Here's where our analysis takes an intriguing turn. Deep Neural Analytics suggests the possibility of WTI Crude Oil being oversold. Historically, when MACD levels have reached this point, a bullish pull-up often follows. However, it's important to approach this insight cautiously. Global news and unforeseen developments can significantly impact oil markets. While historic trends provide valuable guidance, they are not absolute predictors of future behavior. T he Support Zone: According to volume metrics, the current support zone (indicated by the upper blue rectangle) ranging from $77 to $84 also serves as a demand zone. If market sentiment remains positive and bearish news doesn't disrupt the status quo, this zone could transition into a consolidation platform. A consolidation zone acts as a springboard for investors to accumulate positions and potentially drive the price to the next resistance zone, which might fall within the range of $94 to $100 (as depicted by the purple rectangle). A lternative Scenarios: If buyers fail to sustain the current support zone, or if external factors challenge investor sentiment, the next potential demand zone lies between $63.5 and $71 (as illustrated by the bottom blue rectangle). Should this scenario unfold, it would necessitate a reassessment to determine its suitability for a possible reversal. Theoretically, if oil doesn't reverse from the current demand zone, it could find its turning point in the alternate demand zone. These scenarios, however, are long-term considerations, while the current situation sees oil consistently falling below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) like EMA 20/50/100/200. U nderstanding Sustainability: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicators play a pivotal role in comprehending the sustainability of trends. Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) applied to EMAs and oil prices suggest that the bearish trend may persist until February 2024 or potentially longer. Despite MACD indicating that oil is oversold, GBMs on EMAs advise against forecasting an immediate bullish trend. This underscores the importance of not relying solely on one indicator. The Road Ahead I n the realm of WTI Crude Oil trading, informed decision-making is key. The markets are driven by a complex interplay of variables, making the role of a sophisticated investor all the more crucial. Without bullish news and indicators, WTI Crude Oil continues to display bearish tendencies and may maintain this trajectory for the foreseeable future. Remember, this analysis serves as a guide, not an investment recommendation. Conduct thorough research, safeguard your funds, and take full responsibility for your investment choices. The dynamic nature of financial markets requires vigilance, and with the right insights, you can navigate the WTI Crude Oil landscape with confidence and wisdom. Kind regards, Ely
TVC:USOILShort
by Elysian_Mind
6