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Oil Price Plummets Below Moving Averages - Exercise Caution!It has come to my notice that the price of oil has continued to drop below the crucial moving averages of both the 50-day and 200-day periods, indicating a potentially worrisome trend. As seasoned oil traders, we know moving averages impact market sentiment and price action. The fact that oil prices have fallen below these key indicators indicates the growing bearish sentiment surrounding the commodity. Therefore, it is crucial that we exercise caution and closely monitor the situation to protect our investments. The ongoing decline in oil prices below these moving averages suggests that the market faces significant challenges. Factors such as global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and the persistent oversupply of oil have contributed to this downward trend. We must consider these factors and their potential impact on our trading decisions. Considering these developments, I strongly recommend refraining from making substantial investments in oil until we witness a clear and established return in demand. While taking advantage of lower prices is tempting, it is equally important to remember that the current market conditions are volatile and unpredictable. We must prioritize capital preservation and avoid unnecessary risks. As fellow oil traders, it is our best interest to stay informed and make informed decisions based on reliable market indicators and trends. I encourage you to closely monitor the market and seek expert opinions before significant trading moves. By doing so, we can mitigate potential losses and position ourselves for better opportunities when the market stabilizes. Please remember that this is a cautionary note, not financial advice. Each trader should evaluate their risk tolerance and make decisions accordingly. I am confident we can successfully navigate this challenging period with careful analysis and prudent decision-making. Let us stay connected and support each other during these testing times.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
Oil Prices Has Bear Channel and SMA So Wait It Out I wanted to draw your attention to an essential development in the oil market that warrants caution and careful consideration. As you may be aware, oil prices have recently entered a bearish channel, indicating a downward trend in the market. Furthermore, the simple moving average (SMA) for oil prices has declined steadily over the past few weeks. When taken together, these two indicators suggest a potentially prolonged period of price decline in the oil market. While it is understandable that such news may raise concerns and prompt immediate action, I encourage you to adopt a patient approach and wait it out before making any hasty decisions regarding your oil positions. It is crucial to remember that the oil market is highly volatile, often influenced by a multitude of factors, both geopolitical and economic. Instead of succumbing to panic or being swayed by short-term fluctuations, taking a step back and assessing the broader picture is essential. Consider the long-term prospects of the oil industry, the potential impact of global events, and the evolving energy landscape. By doing so, you will be better equipped to make informed decisions that align with your investment goals. In light of these recent developments, I urge you to take the following actions: 1. Evaluate your current oil positions: Carefully review your portfolio and assess the potential risks associated with your oil investments. Consider diversifying your holdings to mitigate potential losses and protect your overall investment strategy. 2. Stay informed: Closely on market trends, industry news, and expert analysis. You can make better-informed decisions and adjust your investment strategy accordingly by staying informed. 3. Consult with a financial advisor: Seek guidance from a qualified financial advisor specializing in the energy sector. Their expertise and insights can prove invaluable in navigating the complexities of the oil market and making strategic investment decisions. Remember, investing in oil requires a cautious approach, especially during times of uncertainty. While the current bearish channel and declining SMA may appear discouraging, keeping a long-term perspective and not letting short-term fluctuations dictate your actions is crucial.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
WTI CRUDE OIL: Sell opportunity on the LH trendline and 4H MA200WTI Crude Oil hit today the 4H MA200 after more than a week flipping the 1D chart neutral and the 4H bullish (RSI = 61.440, MACD = 0.100, ADX = 44.090). This is however approaching the RSI's R1 Zone, holding since April, while the LH trendline looms right ahead. Also this is where the 0.5 Fibonacci level is. Technically this is the most optimal sell entry for the short term and we will take full advantage of it targeting the S1 (TP = 66.80). On the contrary, a crossing over the LH trendline, will be a buy entry targeting the 1D MA100 and 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 73.00). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
5
Join the Excitement - Add Oil to Your Trading Watchlist!As you may be aware, recent market conditions have created a tight physical market for oil, presenting a promising landscape for traders like us. The sentiment surrounding oil has been significantly impacted by various factors, including the slow growth of the Chinese economy and the aggressive rate increases implemented by the Federal Reserve. These developments have pushed oil prices down, making it an ideal time for us to consider adding oil to our trading watchlist. Now, I know what you might be thinking - with all the uncertainties and challenges in the market, why should I consider oil? Well, my fellow traders, it is precisely during times like these that intelligent traders can seize the opportunity to make significant gains. By closely monitoring oil and its movements, we can position ourselves to benefit from potential price fluctuations and capitalize on market trends. So, I encourage you to put oil on your trading watchlist. Keep a close eye on the latest news, market reports, and geopolitical developments influencing oil prices. By staying informed and proactive, we can make well-informed trading decisions and maximize our potential profits. Remember, trading is not just about taking risks; it's about calculated risks. By carefully analyzing market conditions, understanding the factors impacting oil prices, and utilizing effective trading strategies, we can confidently navigate the market and increase our chances of success. To assist your trading journey, I recommend exploring reliable sources of information, such as industry publications, financial news outlets, and market analysis reports Collaborating and learning from others can be invaluable in refining your trading approach. Oil has the potential to offer us substantial gains, and by putting it on your trading watchlist, you'll be well-positioned to seize these opportunities. I encourage you to take action now and add oil to your trading watchlist. Stay informed, stay focused, and let's make the most of this tight physical market!
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Oil continues to decline or go range boundI wanted to bring to your attention the recent news from China regarding their lending standards. It has been reported that China is cutting lending standards to shore up growth, but easing was not seen as a priority while inflation continues to be elevated. I would caution against making any hasty investment decisions at this time. With inflation still a concern, it is important to consider any investment opportunities and their potential risks carefully. Therefore, I encourage you to pause on oil investing and take a step back to assess the current market conditions. This will allow you to make informed decisions and avoid any unnecessary risks.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
The Downward Trajectory: Understanding Weak Oil Market DynamicsOil looks weak. It seems extremely weak, mainly because production hasn't come down. Chinese demand is still low and might never reach its ATHs, but this, along with the US refilling its SPR, can potentially send higher oil prices. However, this is unlikely to happen before the market takes out this quadruple bottom. Until all the lows are swept, and potentially until the market trades at 43-55$, it's unlikely to see oil go up. Only those prices will make OPEC+ cut production and have 80+ as its target. Until many of these member countries feel pain, it's unlikely that oil will trade above 80$ without some other geopolitical shock. Again, oil can trade higher, but for now, the target is 60.6$, and potentially 54.2$ is next. We can look for potential longs toward 85-100$.
TVC:USOILShort
by BitcoinMacro
1
The Future of Crude Oil“We are not addicted to oil, but our cars are”, said a former CIA Chief, James Woolsey. That addiction is on the decline as we pen this paper. Love it, or hate it, but you cannot ignore it. Crude oil powers the planet. When global economy stutters, oil prices plunge. Midway through 2023, crude oil demand appears wobbly on recession overhang and shaky economic recovery in China. Meanwhile, crude supply remains tight with OPEC+ scaling back production which has been compounded by limited investment in new exploration. Over the long term, energy transition is set to fundamentally change the oil market. Consumers are shifting to EVs and renewable energy. In a befitting response, producers are reducing supply. Energy transition will be anything but a straight line. It will create many risks and present many more opportunities. This paper is set in two parts. First, we highlight key takeaways from a recent IEA report on crude oil outlook until 2028. Second, we explore hedging & trading instruments on the CME Group for participating in oil markets. PART 1: KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM IEA CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK REPORT The International Energy Agency (IEA) released Oil 2023 last week. This report describes in detail the changing dynamics in the oil market until 2028. It discusses key trends such as slowing demand growth, shifting producer growth, and the impact of energy transition on oil. Recent crises have accelerated the energy transition. With COVID-19 plus rattled geopolitics, nations are increasingly more focused than ever on energy security and independence. Ten key takeaways from Oil 2023: 1. Global oil demand to rise by 6% or 5.9M bpd between 2022 to 2028, reaching 105.7M bpd. Despite this, emissions will fall 11% with efficiency improvements. 2. Annual demand growth is expected to slow sharply in the coming years from +2.4M bpd in 2022 to just +400K bpd in 2028. 3. India and China will drive demand over the next decade while consumption among OECD countries will shrink. 4. Oil demand for gasoline will peak this year and start to reverse going forward with accelerated EV transition. Demand for transport fuels is expected to peak in 2026. 5. Jet fuel demand is still lagging 2019 levels by 13% and is expected to rise rapidly but only surpass pre-COVID levels in 2027 with expected efficiency improvements. 6. The petrochemical sector will replace the demand for transport fuels. Demand from LPG, Ethane, and Naphtha will increase by 40% from now until 2028. 7. Production growth from shale is expected to slow due to rising costs and lower prices. US shale will mature to a higher-return-lower-growth trajectory. 8. Global upstream oil and gas investment is projected to increase by 11% year-on-year in 2023, reaching USD 528 billion. This represents a rise from USD 474 billion in 2022. 9. Non-OPEC+ countries, including the United States, Brazil, and Guyana, will lead the medium-term capacity expansion plans. They are expected to contribute to a supply boost of 5.1M bpd. 10. By 2028, an additional 5.9M bpd of net production capacity will come online. The rate of new capacity building will decrease over time, aligning with projected demand growth. Following four charts help visualise the large shifts underway in the crude oil market: 1. Price Sensitivity to Imbalance: Crude oil prices are highly sensitive to imbalances between production and consumption. Over the past 25 years, consumption has been marginally higher than production. Where deficit rises, spot prices rally. 2. Consumption between developed markets (DM) and emerging markets (EM): Consumption in EM will further outpace OECD countries. Consumption across EM overtook OECD in 2013 and this trend will be further entrenched. IEA forecasts that consumption in OECD countries will hit its apex this year. Thereafter, it will start shrinking going forward. In sharp contrast, EM consumption will rise by 7.8M bpd between 2022-2028. 3. India to surpass China by 2027: Although both countries will continue to see demand increase, India will surpass China as the main source of growth by 2027. 4. Non-OPEC+ will be the primary source of growth in oil production: Production growth from OPEC+ will remain intact, while non-OPEC+ countries will be driving production growth. PART 2: CRUDE OIL DERIVATIVES CME offers a variety of instruments for producers, consumers, and investors to participate in the crude oil market. This includes WTI Futures & Options and Brent Futures & Options. Beyond these, CME also operates markets in a range of refined oil products, fuel oil, and natural gas. In a previous paper , we highlighted the 40-year history of CME Group’s WTI crude oil derivatives. With an extensive suite of derivatives on offer, CME Group enables multiple alternatives for different market participants. Futures WTI Crude is a widely used global benchmark for oil prices. It is the underlying for one of the most liquid futures contracts in the world – the CME Crude Oil Futures ("CL Futures"). CL Futures is a physically delivered contract with tight correlation to the physical oil market. Over one million contracts change hands daily, representing USD 7+ billion in notional value. Each lot of the CL Futures contract represents one thousand barrels of crude oil. CL Futures provide deep liquidity and high-quality market structure for hedgers and investors to participate in and protect against oil price volatility. Monthly contracts are available over the next ten calendar years. Front month contracts are easily tradable on CME Globex electronic order book. Longer dated contracts require engagement with inter dealer brokers for price discovery and voice-based trade execution. Alternatively, CME’s Micro Crude Oil contract (MCL) offers exposure to just 100 barrels with a maintenance margin of just USD 580 (as of 23rd June), enabling affordable participation into these markets. The micro contracts allow hedgers to manage risk exposure with greater precision. Options Monthly options are available on the underlying CL futures. They are deeply liquid with seamless order book-based trading on CME Globex. Open interest on the front month contract is >300,000 lots, representing premium of more than USD 1 Billion across calls and puts. More than 20,000 contracts are traded daily. Weekly options are used to fine-tune exposure around key events such as OPEC+ meetings and interest rate announcements. Daily options are available for CL Futures. Monthly and weekly options are also available on Micro Crude Futures. CME provides calendar spread options and mid-curve options which can be used as tactical trading and hedging tools given the seasonality of oil markets. Trading Strategies There are innumerable ways of trading the crude oil market. Most popular among them include (a) taking directional position using futures and options, (b) establishing shrewd hedges or convex trading strategies using options, and (c) trading delta-neutral calendar spreads gaining from relative shifts across the futures term structure. Previously we have covered different trading ideas in crude oil, including taking a directional position - (a) Is US Oil running low on energy? (b) Is WTI crude set to rebound? (c) Three headwinds to send crude oil into free fall , (d) Harnessing gains from mean reversion in crude oil markets , and (e) Rebounding air travel & rising China to fire up WTI crude. In our next paper, we describe the mechanics involved and illustrate the workings of popular trading strategies. KEY TAKEAWAYS In conclusion, 1. The Crude oil market is at the cusp of substantial change as energy transition powers on. 2. Change will be a constant. Impact on price will be anything but a straight line, creating both risks for the uninitiated and opportunities for the astute. 3. CME Group’s deeply liquid market with broad range of instruments enables market participants to harvest gains in risk-mitigated ways and to lock in credible reward to risk ratios. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!
by mintdotfinance
1
Is It Time to Follow the Oracle's Lead?You may have heard of a certain Warren Buffett, and it seems like he might be onto something... Buffett, known as the "Oracle of Omaha," has demonstrated remarkable investment timing, or perhaps an innate ability to steer investment flows. This was clearly illustrated by his investment in Japan, which triggered a rally in the Nikkei to decade-long highs. While that window may have closed, Buffett has been discreetly bolstering his stake in another entity - Occidental Petroleum (OXY). If we scrutinize the timing of his purchases, it's apparent that Buffett likely had a price floor in mind. Intriguingly, his first purchase occurred when Crude was trading at a 15-year high! This leads us to examine Oil, which has been trading nearly 40% lower since mid-2022. Since our last discussion about oil, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has been further depleted, reaching its lowest level since 1983. The result of this drawdown is a diminished impact on energy costs as evidenced by the energy inflation index, which has not only passed its peak but has now turned negative. Interestingly, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian Krone, currencies of major oil-exporting countries, have been outpacing the commodity typically correlated with them, Crude Oil. On the whole, it seems the energy commodity sector may have bottomed out, with all types of Oil and natural gas trading on an upward trajectory. In consideration of these factors, the outlook for oil leans towards the bullish side. The scarcity of oil in the SPR and the absence of energy inflation as a significant contributor to overall CPI make it unlikely for the U.S. to release more oil to depress energy prices. Coupled with the buoyant trend in the energy commodity space and the recent outperformance of major oil-exporting countries' currencies, it appears to be an opportune moment to consider a long position on oil. At the current price level of 72.33, risk managed trade points to setting the stops at the previous support of 66 and take profit level at 85. Each Crude Oil Future contract is equal to 1000 barrels of crude oil. Each 0.01 point increment in Crude Oil Futures is equal to 10 USD . The same view can also be expressed with greater precision using the Micro WTI Crude Oil, where each Micro contract is equal to 100 barrels of crude oil and each 0.01 point increment is equal to 1 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.eia.gov tradingeconomics.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by inspirante
consolidation Until Apex BreakoutGood evening, here's another view of oil im currently monitoring the 4hr chart. After the retrace from the bearish cypher pattern. Oil retested B leg and bounced back up to the supply zone. There's a apex that has formed, that is set to be completed by Late Thursday Futures session-Early Friday Futures Session. Oil is showing oversold w/ below the cloud action. I'm anticipating price action to rise into the apex til we get another final confirmed direction for this 4hr trade. There are a lot of traders looking to get into oil long near $65-67, i'm definitely a buyer if we get another chance at that level. However, I believe oil is set to reach $74 per barrel. The conclusion of the Apex trade will dictate if we go higher, or if patient dip buyers will be rewarded.
TVC:USOILLong
by moneyflow_trader
WTI CRUDE OIL: Short term buy as the 4H MA50 held.WTI Crude Oil rebounded yesterday upon hitting the 4H MA50 and as the 4H technicals turned bullish (RSI = 55.674, MACD = 0.250, ADX = 26.371), this is a buy opportunity on the short term. We are targeting the 1D MA100 (TP = 73.50), where we will place the first medium term short (TP = 68.00). The maximum technical extension for this year has been the 1D MA200, so if the 1D MA100 breaks, we will place our second short at 77.00 for an even higher return trade (again TP = 68.00). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
15
Oil continues to drop despite China rate changeThe price of oil has taken a significant hit due to China's decrease in demand. As we all know, China is an essential player in the oil market, and any rate changes can significantly impact the industry. This news is disheartening. We have seen oil prices drop dramatically recently, leaving many investors uncertain about this market's future. However, I want to encourage you not to lose hope. Despite the current challenges, investing in oil is still a wise choice. While the market may be volatile right now, we know that oil is a valuable resource that will always be in demand. The need for oil will only increase as the world grows and develops.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
Oil continues to drop because of these market conditionsAs you are likely aware, the oil market has been experiencing a significant drop in prices in recent weeks, and this warning serves as a reminder of the potential risks involved in short selling during times of volatility. Furthermore, we are also waiting for China's announcement of interest rate cuts, which could further impact the oil market. It is essential to remain vigilant and cautious during these uncertain times. As an oil trader, I urge you to pause and carefully consider your actions before making any decisions that could significantly impact the market. We must all act responsibly and with caution to ensure the stability and sustainability of the oil market. In conclusion, I encourage you to take heed of the warning issued by Saudi Arabia and approach the current market situation cautiously.
TVC:USOILShort
by bryandowningqln
WTI CRUDE OIL: Pivot level separates sell from buy trade.WTI Crude Oil got rejected today exactly on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which is the pivot level we have identified that determines the short term trade. The medium term pattern is a Megaphone and with both the 1D and 4H timeframes neutral (RSI = 52.099, MACD = -0.100, ADX = 28.689), we can easily realize that the price is exactly in the middle of the pattern, hence the Pivot. We will buy if a 4H candle closes over the Pivot (71.05) and target the 1D MA100 (TP = 74.00). Similarly we will be selling as long as the candle closes under the Pivot and target S2 (TP = 64.00). The RSI is trading inside a Triangle, whose top and bottom can help you take profit earlier if needed. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOIL
by InvestingScope
14
Crude oil 11 win planOil prices fell more than $1 a barrel on Friday, falling for a second straight week, as data added to doubts about demand growth following Saudi Arabia's decision to cut production over the weekend. Oil prices had risen at the start of last week, buoyed by Saudi Arabia's pledge over the weekend to cut production further than the earlier deal with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its Allies. However, an increase in U.S. fuel inventories and weak data have impacted the market. Some market analysts expect oil prices to rise if the Fed puts interest rate hikes on hold at its next meeting on June 13-14. The Fed's decision could also influence Saudi Arabia's next move, analysts said. "What happens next is likely to depend on inflation data and interest rate decisions in the coming weeks." On Friday, crude oil slightly back to the lowest 70.60 US dollars line after the opening of a wave of rebound, the highest rebound in the US hit the first line of 71.75 US dollars, then rose to fall back, the US crude oil continued to fall back, the current minimum fell to 70.10 US dollars line, the final close near 70.30 US dollars, the daily close small negative line, The weekly line with a lower shadow line is long, and after the end of such a form, crude oil early rebound short, there is room to continue to fall and demand, today's crude oil attention above the resistance near $71.60, rebound relying on the resistance below here, and then look near $68.50 can be! Composite: Crude oil hit sell near 71.3, target 68.5
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Besttraderking
1
Will oil continue with strong China refinery output?There is some exciting news about the oil market that I believe will pique your interest. As you may already know, China's refinery output grew by a whopping 15% in May, which has contributed to a surge in demand for oil. Additionally, OPEC+ decided to cut supply in May, and Saudi Arabia has announced that it will cut supply for July due to a supply deficit in times of high demand. These factors have led to a rise in oil prices, which is excellent news for those interested in oil investing. As an oil trader, I encourage you to consider taking advantage of this opportunity to invest in oil and potentially reap the benefits of this market growth. So, what are you waiting for? Don't miss this chance to capitalize on the rising oil prices. Act now and explore the world of oil investing.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln