USOILNot financial advice.
The essence of investing & trading is the intelligent and patient preying on the greed, fear, impatience, addiction and ignorance of the majority. It's definitionally Darwinian.
Oiltrading
Brent Crude Oil Swing TradeThe price of Brent Crude Oil has fallen and tested the previous support level (Blue Line) outlined in the previous newsletter. Currently, we could see a potential swing back upwards. If the price breaks the support level, we could see a fall in price. However, I see the former as the more likely scenario, as the 0.5 Fibonacci level (Green Line) is also below the trendline - providing further support.
This support is further backed by the Stochastic RSI and MACD indicator coming to show potential buy signals.
To see why I chose these support and Resistance Levels see my linked idea below.
Oil prices are falling | Trade idea
Worries about a potential increase in US Fed interest rates, which could slow economic growth and reduce energy consumption, outweighed strong economic data from China and a decline in US fuel stocks, causing the asset to move negatively. A report published yesterday by the American Petroleum Institute (API) recorded a reduction of 2.675M barrels, more than the projected decrease of 2.464M barrels. Today, investors expect similar statistics from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA): according to forecasts, oil reserves may be corrected by –1.088M barrels, providing support to the prices.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Forming a Head and ShouldersWTI Crude Oil is in the process of forming the Right Shoulder part of the Head and Shoulders pattern on a neutral 4H technical outlook (RSI = 48.188, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 33.202). A long as the price keeps getting rejected on the 4H MA50, the trend remains bearish but it will be confirmed if the price crosses under the HL trendline (sell trigger). If that happens, we will target the middle of the S1 Zone (TP = 73.00), which is where the 4 prior H&S patterns aimed at.
Note that for more than 1 year, the Head and Shoulders pattern has always been the market peak and started strong declines.
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short term trade 83.50 AD at spike levelad approaching the spike level along w/ developing a bull flag breakout short term target 83.50, and looking bullish continuation to continue to the higher time frames
Weekly Price Projection for Brent Crude Oil W/C 17th April 2023Price Range Projection:
Weekly High: ~ $86.58
Weekly Low: ~ $82.818
In the chart above, you can see the price on the 3-hour timescale, along with a fixed range volume profile.
Weekly High Projection
The fixed range volume profile (the horizontal histogram) is an indicator that can be used to show resistance and support levels. The red horizontal line in the close-up chart above indicates the point of control, which is the price level that had the most volume. As you can see, the price stalled around this point. This is where I see the weekly high.
Weekly Low Projection
I have placed the weekly low at a previous support level, which was formed from a chart pattern that had a breakout more than a month ago. This is shown with the two blue trendlines.
Can crude oil continue to rise?On the news side, the IEA monthly report on Friday was released. The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report on Friday that world oil demand will grow to 2 million barrels per day in 2023; on the supply side, OPEC+ production cuts may lead to supply shortages in the second half of the year, which also restricts the decline in oil prices to a certain extent.In addition, the current entry of daylight saving time, more travel demand itself has reached the peak season of oil, and oil prices will be boosted by demand from many aspects and will usher in a new wave of increases.
Judging from the recent trend of crude oil, crude oil stepped back to 81.6 twice on Friday and was steadily caught by the bulls, indicating that the support below is strong and the rise will continue, so for the short term, continue to maintain the bullish thinking.Moreover, under the current pressure on oil prices, the strength of the pullback is limited, and oil prices have been fluctuating below 83.5 for the past five months. Once the resistance in this area is broken, it is expected to accelerate the rise and enter a new trading range.
I will share specific transactions and operations in real time on my channel based on intraday details.In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
angus energy plc 1D LSE update on fundamentalsLSE:ANGS
Although price has been down last week, in general angs share price has been performing well, and the current drillings has been successfull. as we can see in the chart we are in a uptrend, rising wedge. i see a slow and steady rise this year. A good stock to sit back and let it work for you. JT LSE:ANGS
The calorific value fluctuates within a very narrow but very significant range,
From 01.10.2022 to the Present:
Min 40.33 on 07.10.2022 and Max 41.52 on 26/02/2023 and Mean 41.2170 so the gas quality is of a very good quality look at the Calorific Value Metrics since 03.04.2023 when the Drill for the sidetrack was successfully completed and a gas find confirmed,
During the clean up phase there fluctuations in Calorific Value closely resembled the clusters in early Q3 2022 i.e.Sept 2022 when the Saltfleetby gas supply from the first two wells was being cleaned and tested and consistent supply confirmed,
Now look at how the Calorific value has transitioned since 03.04.2023 and during the past week has steadied and moved closer and closer to the mean value, so normality in supply being restored have the kill fluids being with drawn form the gas supply,
Whilst the wells are distant the supply is being drawn from the same reservoir and because Gas is the least viscous state of matter there effects of working on one well would technically affect the Overall Calorific Value being drawn from the Gas Reservoir so either The Technical Expert at Angus Energy refutes my hypothesis or I believe in the teachings of my Chemistry & Physics masters at school regarding this subject matter,
Regarding Completion of the monthly Hedge it is simple at come stage during the Month of April 2023 there shall be an uplift in Gas being supplied to the grid which is being supplied to the National Grid,
The RNS of 03.04.2023 mentioned the supply was intended to be connected to the Grid during the Week of 07.04.2023 so I have used a simple weighted average calculation of number of days at approx 57,000 Therms and the Number of Days at 98,500 Therms
57,129.36 98,677.99 1.3636 *Current Co-efficient
15 15 30
856,940.40 1,480,170 2,337,110
The longer we go at approx 57,000 Therms the fewer days available at 98,677.99 and hence the lower the monthly mean supply hence there is approximately a financial cost of approximately GB£42,500 differential in supplying at the lower value and the higher per day ,
Hence I now strongly believe an official confirmation regarding connectivity it imminent and no doubt Shell are privy to the metrics during the clean up phase as they must be satisfied regarding purity of supply to the grid and that leads me to infer that Shell may be interested in Buying ANGUS Energy using the Gas and also using their expertise to optimalise the Storage Facilities before transitioning Saltfleetby to a Holding Facility for Carbon capture is is also being commented upon, source lse uk chat
Crude Oil and Natural Gas - Bearish ReversalsCrude Oil (WTI) & Natural Gas have been in an uptrend.
Reversal Patterns are present, and BIG bearish moves are around the corner.
Technical Analysis:
- WTI: Ascending Channel Breach
- Natural Gas: Ending Diagonal
OIL daily chartCurrenlty looking to see if oil is going to continue increasing in price to the 85-86 range, I think we have some potential room to go up still before we see any type of retracement or even bearish price action. Enjoy!
WTI CRUDE OIL Best long term sellThe WTI Crude Oil is being rejected today on the 1day MA200, the longest Resistance MA technically.
This rejection is also taking place on Resistance A (83.40), the December 1st top.
The structural top inside the Channel Down has been the same on every occassion.
When the now overbought 1day RSI crosses under the MA trendline, the sell will be confirmed.
Target 70.00 (Rising Support).
Previous chart:
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WTI breaks out of consolidation, $90 up next?WTI broke out of consolidation and closed above its 200-day EMA and resistance zone. The OBV (on balance indicator) confirmed the breakout with a move to a new cycle high, and volumes (whilst below average) are turning higher to show buyers stepping back in.
Furthermore, we saw a gap ahead of the consolidation above HKEX:79 , although using classic definitions it doesn't quite fit into 'breakaway' or 'runaway' gap category. Regardless, we've seen a 30% rally from the March low with a gap along the way, OPEC+ cut oil production, and the trend points higher.
With that said, the 200-day MA is capping as resistance, so bulls may want to wait for a break (or daily close) above the level. But overall, the risks appear skewed to the upside.
- The bias remains bullish above 79 and an initial move to 90, then the 93.60 highs
- Wednesday's low could be used for tighter risk management
WTI CRUDE OIL: Major 1D MA200 test after 7 months.WTI Crude Oil is about to hit the 1D MA200 on nearly overbought 1D technicals (RSI = 68.113, MACD = 1.880, ADX = 54.309) for the first time in 7.5 months (August 30th). This is a critical technical junction as 83.50 is also the top of the R1 Zone and the High of December 1st.
With the RSI also approaching the HH trendline, we are going short on WTI and target first the 0.618 Fibonacci level (TP = 72.00). The downtrend can be deeper but this needs to be confirmed. The current bearish signal will get confirmed once the price crosses under the 4H MA50, which has been supporting for 3 weeks.
Prior idea:
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Oil is about to experience an uptrend
Oil experienced a sharp decline again today, and the EIA data was also unfavorable to oil. Currently, the oil price is close to the support level of 65-63. If this area is breached, the oil price will face the risk of falling to around $50.
As far as the current market situation is concerned, I think this probability is not high. Although we cannot completely rule out this risk, from a technical perspective, if the oil price continues to decline, it will become oversold, and there will be a short-term rebound demand. Therefore, in the trading process, I lean towards going long at lower levels.
If you have enough margin for oil, you can start a small long position now, and take profit at above 70 upon rebound.
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USOIL Target Price 83.316Entry At Trend Line Support. Entry: Buy Limit At Trend Line Support. Trend line has a minimum of three touches.
Oil is Ranging. So Where Will it break? Oil has been in a range towards the end of last year and price is fighting against pushing below the 75 lvl and staying below it. It makes sense as the news is mixed because there are positive and negative news for Oil. Check out the following:
Positives for Oil:
-China economy recovering and demand increasing
-Russia plans to cut Oil exports by 25% and cut oil production by 500,000 barrels
-EU ban on Russian Oil
-OPEC maintaining production cuts
-JP Morgan looking at $90 a barrel for Oil in the middle of the year
Negatives for Oil:
-to the FED increasing rates for the next three meetings
-a possible global recession as majority of the G7 nations increase rates
So, what will win out? The negatives or the positives. I am thinking Oil will be able to push higher in the short term (next few months) and eventually fall as interest rates push higher and higher. If inflation does not drop as fast the FED wants, it will need to crank up the the heat on inflation, by doing it through interest rates. In 2025, I think Oil is going to push back up to $100, maybe higher and if this does happen, it would be good if I am still in the GBP/CAD as price would likely be around 1.45. On a side note, there is a big push to renewable energies and electric vehicles, but this requires a lot of resources to produce on a massive scales and in the interim Oil will be needed. If this massive push does happen, in the beginning, Oil will increase exponentially until renewables take over. In the next couple years, lets see if I am correct:
-price by the end of the year $80
-price in the beginning of 2024 (first 6 months) $70 - $80 and end of 2024 (last 6 months) $95
-price in 2025 $100+ (I keep thinking production is going to go off the rails with what's going to come out and the new technology)
With multiple positive support, oil prices are expected to rise?Although the major oil-producing countries have implemented production cuts to give some support to crude oil, the demand for crude oil is not too strong because the economic recovery may be much slower than originally expected.Because when market demand surges, OPEC does not need to cut production significantly, so oil prices may not rise further, but will continue to fall.
On the daily chart of crude oil, in view of the surge and fall of oil prices on Monday, and the failure to break through the pressure of the strong resistance area upward for a long time, oil prices at this position are at risk of short-term volatility and peak, and the phased replenishment of the gap has not yet been completed, so compared with the top, there is still a lot of space below, so once the upward energy of crude oil is exhausted, you need to seek new technical support downwards.
Short-term trading reference:
Sell crude oil above 80.2, take profit level 79.4
I will share specific transactions and operations in real time on my channel based on intraday details.In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Crude oil idea!Crude oil had formed a nice mature bull flag but my gut is telling me it will get invalidated soon and break lower to the green support. I think crude needs to reload its momentum in order to break through the great wall of sellers that we have been knocking on recently.
Trade safe!
Oil short idea!With the unexpected news of oil production cuts oil has gapped up hard. Although strong, oil has rammed a massive resistance zone . May be to soon to call short, but i am. Gap fill possible.
Oil has gapped up!With the unexpected news of oil production cuts oil has gapped up hard. Although strong, oil has rammed a massive resistance zone. May be to soon to call short, but i am. Gap fill possible.
Oil Gap - A Game Changer for its PricesGap means a runaway in prices or a confirmation of a clean break away from its downtrend line. (Technical)
OPEC-Plus made a surprise announcement to reduce oil production starting May. Unlike OPEC, OPEC-Plus involve many more countries. This signals a synchronise effort to boost crude oil prices. Expect a much higher oil prices to come. (Fundamental)
My recent crude oil videos:
• Crude Oil Outlook - USD106 as major resistance
• Why Crude Oil is Trending Higher Again, Breaking Above US$100
• Correlation - Crude Oil & CPI
• Crude oil a leading inflation indicator
See its link below.
3 types of crude oil for trading:
• Crude Oil Futures
0.01 per barrel = $10.00
Code: CL
• E-mini Crude Oil Futures
0.025 per barrel = $12.50
Code QM
• Micro WTI Crude Oil
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Code MCL
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
WTI OIL for 10-14 April 2023WTI Oil is still goes on the sideways for a couples of days and might continue this week, in case of a bearish momentum, 76.00 level would be a good buying opportunity. If trading limit your trades between 79.00 to 82.00 level and any breakout or breakdown on this level would need a very severe Stop loss if in a position on a different way. Nonetheless, remain vigilant on the coming weeks for another surprise move of WTI oil.
Oil ScenarioThe oil market expectation is at 100 $ per barrel.
Market psychology could be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Let's see about that.
The Saudis cutting output by approx 1.2 million barrels a day could push the prices up, which supplies more inflation worries and recessionary pressure on the markets.
