A BRIEF PULL BACK B4 THE NEXT MASSIVE BULLISHOil has been recently on up trend with all the Hh's but currently a pull back is eminent, its a retest that will usher in the next bullish momentum taking the PRICE to $93 and above price target
Oiltrading
Gold update Today is bearish
Test back the 1620 will be sooner
I ll sell the red line first 1638 then update if ill take profit
Any ways next week will be bearish
GOOD LUCK
OIL....FALL (4.8%)Shorting Crude Oil to a RR of 0.75% to 4.8%.
During the opening of the New York's market on Wednesday, there was a strong bullish candle as a result of the strong ADP Employment Change on the US economy, which accelerated the US dollar, this also had an influence on XTIUSD.....
Now, i see a perfect time for shorting XTIUSD.
NB: i'm expecting a price circulation within my triangle to complete its movement.
oil shortThis signal is seen in 4 hours. As you know, the signal is not suitable for people who want to finish the transaction quickly.
Oil update Yesterday was no movement just volatility
I believe today down side movement
My target is 86 still like before
I dont care about inventory , i think the FED was aggressive yesterday and will effect the market
GOOD LUCK
Crude Oil Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 Crude Oil Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022
We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 13.69%, decreasing from 13.8% of last month.
This is currently placing us in the 57th percentile according to ATR and 92th according to OVX
Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is:
BEARISH Candle : 9.577%
BULLISH Candle : 7.46%
With this in mind we can expect with a close to 24.4% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel:
BOT: 74.5
TOP: 98.3
Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a :
75% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 94.4
27% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 80.5
WHAT AFTER THE DOUBLE DIP and OPEC? This graph is a representation of my point of you of the futures market (USD).
Oil update We sold yesterday and reached our target
No its blow up again , to area where ill sell
My target below 86 $
Now oil is absolutely different than the rest commodity
That way the medium term target cant be predictable
(Always take profit alone the way )
80$ is the last of correction wave
GOOD LUCK
Oil update I think the red line is a good for sell
Blue lines to take profit
We done buying successfully
GOOD LUCK
Oil update Oil is going up to our target
Yesterday was trying to manipulate us , which is normal in trading
Ill be taking profit at blue line then ill be a seller maybe ill update
GOOD LUCK
Crude OIL Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 Crude OIL Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022
Currently the volatility for this week is around 6.5% , up from expected 5.47% last week.
According to ATR calculation, currently the volatility is located around 80th percentile.
Under this circumstances the expected movement of the candle is :
BEAR : 5% from the opening point of the weekly candle
BULL : 4.75% from the opening point of the weekly candle
At the same time, currently there is 15.6% that the movement within this weekly candle is going to
break and close either above or below the next channel:
TOP: 93
BOT: 83.5
Lastly, taking into account the previous weekly high and low there is a :
70% chance that we are going to touch the previous week high
30% chance that we are going to touch the previous week low
Oil update Continuation in buying for me is great opportunity here
Upside movement today may start with European market open
I think no more down from here
(Not financial advise)
GOOD LUCK
Oil update (daily trade) Oil is a good buy to me at this level
In red lines ill take my profit
Its showing som strength
GOOD LUCK
Oil weekly update Oil is still forming head and shoulders pattern
Expecting an down movement on FED Meeting on Monday
How the movement can be ?
In my view , looking to test 89 -90 is still possible so ill be a buyer in opening
But after it hit a 89$ ill take profit
For all week i think down side to 86-85 is possible
GOOD LUCK
Oil update Boring day , day no movement , i think now 87 area down
Then we go to 89 area maybe not today if the momentum keep the same .
GOOD LUCK
Oil update Today play can be like above.
Oil still have a room to go up and test yesterday highs
But next week will be bad
FED can drop the market again
GOOD LUCK
13000+ PIPS DROP (BAD NEWS FOR OIL OPEC MEMBER STATES)The price of crude is pose to shock oil producing countries despite the recent supply cut to the global market,
PRICE is currently stalling at $84 per barrel (minor zone) ,a break of this zone which is eminent will see the drop in price to $70 per barrel of crude
Oil view Oil is still have to go up on daily
I mentioned in morning a selling trade just to be clear it can fail to success but indicators shows weakness and going down can be healthy
Bear on mind , it can go to 89 area , if its faild then down side will be massive
That why iam focusing in selling now .
HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN WILL PRINT SOON
GOOD LUCK
Oil update If you wish to talk a profit that will be good now
Further more we are not in sell area again
I think 86 $ will be reachable today
Again my come down a little its a buying opportunity
GOOD LUCK 1.5 $ profit is not bad in 45 min !
Oil view (can it comes true ) Will first wave up was amazing today we toke it all
Can it retrace tomorrow and go to next target
I cant wait for tomorrow it will be amazing
Lets see
By the way ( i dont do any trade at that time for deferent reasons one of them that the market is just not doing big moves which is some how wasting of time )
GOOD LUCK , ill update you tomorrow
6$ profit GOODJOBToday we sell and buy to make 6$ profit how amazing it was .
Now as i said yesterday 86-87 is reasonable target
Now dont even think to sell
You can take profit but dont sell our trend now may be reverse
For me i thin 86 is good target today
GOOD LUCK
Long WTI & Short Brent as price differential tightens?Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year.
One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which has created more downward price pressure on the WTI market.
The US government has injected180 million barrels of crude into the market through scheduled Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases as of October 18, 2022, to help resolve the market supply disruption created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to help cut energy costs.
U.S. SPR releases are now complete, and crude oil reserves in the United States are at their lowest point since 1983, according to the latest estimates from EIA.
The possibility that the Democrats would suffer a loss in the midterm elections in two weeks might rule out the possibility of more SPR releases being made at a later stage.
In this scenario, the forces that pushed the price of WTI below that of Brent would diminish significantly. As a result, the price spread between the two oil benchmarks may return to tighter levels. Going long on WTI and short on Brent is one way to reflect the idea of closing this oil price gap.
Throughout 2021, the difference between WTI and Brent was on average about -$2/bbl and ranged from -$4.5/bbl to parity levels.
A mean reversion to the period prior to US SPR releases would suggest an increase from current prices of about $6.5/bbl. If, on the other side, the spread widens again and breaks through the -$10/bbl threshold, the strategy will be proven incorrect.
