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WTI analysis: Will OPEC+ cuts boost crude to $100?OPEC+ has taken a tough stance, slashing output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) beginning in November 2022, the largest reduction in crude oil production since March 2020. In addition to production extending the agreement through 2023, oil producers have agreed to hold semiannual rather than monthly meetings. WTI oil briefly spiked to $87/bbl following the OPEC+ announcement. It then broke through that level in response to disappointing US crude oil inventory data (-1.36 million barrels vs. 2.05 expected) and a strong US ISM Services PMI, which delayed recessionary warning signs following the weak ISM Manufacturing PMI earlier this week. The move by OPEC+ risks putting renewed pressure on crude oil’s global supply-demand balance in the coming months, potentially resulting in a price floor at pre-OPEC+ meeting levels. On a technical level, WTI crude and (also Brent) prices are currently testing a key resistance area, defined by the 50-day moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the range between September lows and June highs. A sharp break above this resistance zone and then the $90/bbl level (September highs) could put additional upward pressure on an extension towards the 50% of the Fibonacci level ($98.6/bbl) and then $100/bbl. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by Capitalcom
How Iran's nuclear deal could crush sure of victory oil bullsOPEC wants to support the oil price by reducing production. At the same time, we hear from Iran that the nuclear agreement talks are progressing, if the talks are a success, in the near future Iran could again export oil to the wider world. Last week we heard from the U.S. side that an agreement with Iran could not be reached. Today Iran has released a U.S. American (accused of spying) and yesterday announced that the talks in regards to the nuclear deal are (well) progressing and they could soon access their sanctioned funds. Coincidences? There aren't. Looks like europe/U.S & Iran are very close to sign an agreement, which might surprise oil bulls. If Iran resumed large scale exports, all OPEC members would come under very heavy pressure. I expect the price to rise until a potential iran nuclear agreement is forged, and if forged, leading to a potential oversupply of oil and an avoid of recession (global/europe) Disclaimer: The information mentioned in my post should be taken with a grain of salt. They are only my personal opinion and do not form facts. They are also not a call or recommendation to open trades, do trades or close positions.
TVC:UKOIL
by Lobotto
1
USOIL Market OutlookHi friends, I hope y'all having a profitable week. As you can see that the price is currently running above the double bottoms neckline and in between the short-term moving averages. Before it got to where its at, the price bearish broke and didn't retest the Weekly Neckline 2, 2nd Daily Key, and 1st Weekly Key Lvl - giving us our bullish targets; on the other hand, it gave us our bearish targets by previously bullish breaking without retesting the 5th Daily Key Lvl and Daily H&S Neckline. So, if the price bounces off the Mini Daily H&S Neckline with a bearish reversal pattern that leads the to break and retest the 8 MA, we'll be expecting a drop for the bearish targets. If the price bullish breaks and retests the Mini Daily H&S Neckline together with the double bottom neckline and bullish crossed short-term MA's with the patterns accumulation phase, we'll be expecting a 3-level uptrend to the bullish targets. Just a friendly reminder: Trading is not gambling if you know what you’re doing. It is gambling if you’re just throwing money into a deal and praying. That's it for today. I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section. I'd love to know your thoughts! Stay Blessed Baby, Sphatrades.
TVC:USOIL
by Doji-2k1
$UKOIL - Production cuts will pump it to $101Hi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 Surprisingly low US inventories data supported a short-term uptrend of Brent crude, comforting the price to hit $90 this week. 🔔 OPEC+ meeting scheduled on October 5 will be on the watch, as the cartel suggest a production cut of 100,00 barrels per day (bpd). 🔔 Brent once again retested the upper edge of the descending triangle, although the bullish run is yet to be confirmed. The confirmation is set under a breakout from the wedge and closing of the price above $91.60. If that is confirmed, then we expect the price to move further to $98 and $101. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
TVC:UKOILLong
by azizelliott
1
Brent Crude ⛽️Oil⛽️ Analyze!!!Brent Crude ⛽️ Oil ⛽️ has passed the main wave W by Zigzag structure (5-3-5). Oil could finish Expanding Flat (3-3-5) or Main wave X at 138.03$ . Of course, the War can change my Scenario, but I don't expect Oil to break 177$ . I expect the Brent Crude Oil to go DOWN at least to the upper line of Descending Channe & Support Zone . Brent Crude Oil Analyze ( USDBRO ) Timeframe Monthly (Log Scale) 🔴 Resistance Zones 🔴 & 🟢 Support Zone 🟢 that we have in front of Brent Crude ⛽️Oil⛽️ . 🔴 Resistance Zone 🔴: 147$ until 135$ 🔴 Resistance Zone 🔴: 178$ until 159$ 🟢 Support Zone 🟢: 88.6$ until 83.3$ Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
FX_IDC:USDBRO
by pejman_zwin
6
Crude Oil since the US Presidential Election vs UkraineJust a commentary about President Biden's Press Secretary saying that the Ukraine situation has caused oil prices to be elevated. The advance from the lockdown/reopening may have been a much more important factor in the current market price. The fear that investments in new oil refining wouldn't generate a return with an administration vehemently against oil has prevented projects from getting funded. Projects have a long time line from start to finish, measured in years. The price had tumbled to generational buy levels in the wake of the Covid Lockdown response and economic stagnation in 2020-2021. So the natural rebound would have taken us back to this level anyway. It's an interesting picture to see how the market moved versus how people are saying the market has moved. IF the price goes back UNDER the Ukraine level of February 24th, then you can rightly assume that a large correction and wipe-out of speculators is underway. The idea of this chart is that NEWS is important to graph so you can see the level where it happened. That NEWS level will be key on any future revisits to that level. It is the foundational idea behind "Key Hidden Levels" where we graph the Earnings Day on our charts to help us define low risk, high reward potential trade setups. Tim 9:52AM EDT May 19, 2022
NYMEX:CL2!
by timwest
6
Buy Oil WTI - IMO should bounce on this L/T +++ Ascending Trend line Line - L/T Technical support from March 2020 lows. Using a weekly candle chart, Crude right on an upward trend line testing, using the March 2020 low. Crude should bounce from here current level having been tough to break over the last 2 years. Unless we are about to live a historical correction moment on Oil (liquidation/ news flow / Itan) the current price action set up is favouring longs here. As an aside we are also reaching a 50% retardement Fibonacci ratio level taking High 2022/ March 2020 Low. NYMEX:CL1!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ArisopeCapital
OIL Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September OIL Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Currently our volatility for OIL is at 6.6%, increasing from 4.7% last week, located on 100th percentile, placing us in a THE HIGHEST volatility environment Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 15.5% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below) TOP 83 BOT 75.5 At the same time, based on the previous calculations: - There is a 30% chance that the previous high from last week of 86.6 is going to be touched - There is a 70% chance that the previous low from last week 78.02 is going to be touched(at the moment of the writing was already touched) We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish. On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 4.5% for bull candles and 5.1% for the bear candles from the opening price. From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week: - Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep - Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep - US GDP coming on Thursday 29 Sep Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by exlux
⚫️USOIL remains bearish. Looking for continuation.⚫️ 📉 Text marks: 🔹 IL = impulse leg. Inside of IL we can usually see inside structure, which is secondary in nature, like a market noise, unless you trade it on LTF, as it’s own IL. 🔹 ph, pl = protected high or low, which holds current structural impulse. 🔹 bos = break of structure . Based on candle body close below/above previous structural impulse. 🔹 rsz, rdz = refined supply and demand zones. Specific areas to look for LTF confirmations. They are manipulative up-moves before real down moves, or vice versa. Strong hands (the Composite Man, as Wyckoff called it) often come back to such zones to close their manipulative orders at breakeven, before pushing prices further. If body closes outside of the zone, in most cases it will mean the cancellation of the setup. 🔹 if ltf confirms = entry only if there's a shift of structure on lower TF inside of rsz or rdz, or any other type of backtested and approved confirmation. 🔹 liq target = liquidity target: next profit taking levels for strong hands, our main targets based on current price action. ☝️Disclaimer: ALL ideas here are for EDUCATIONAL and MARKETING purposes only, not a financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. I share my view on the market and search for like-minded traders. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as trading in a simulated environment. 👉I believe that "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. In reality, a trader is right only when he executes the system and follows his rules, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live, then refine until perfection. 🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀 💬Send your comments and questions below, share your ideas and charts, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
TVC:USOILShort
by Yelli_trades
20