Oiltrading
Crude selling off this morning, shall we get long again?Crude having a decent pullback this AM, I am staying patient until at least the GP retracement from the local low to local high. If it isn't showing strength there I will wait to see how the orange trendline and/or the green parallel channel reacts. If we get a bounce off of one of those three levels I am expecting a rally back to the red parallel channel, this will be an important take profit zone. I will then hold a portion of my position for the trend reversal confirmation just under the short arrow . I will take the rest off there and maybe even enter a short at that point. For me to enter a short, the price can not confirm above the red parallel channel and the oscillators must show a strong bearish divergence.
I will update this post or write a new post once we reach my key short level.
Good luck!
Visualising victory for Ukraine and the oil pricesBack in February, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, a victory for Kyiv would have been almost impossible to imagine. It's the classic David and Goliath. Recent developments on the battlefront, however, are starting to paint a different picture, showing the possibility of Ukraine ending the conflict with a win.
On paper, the war is just between Ukraine and Russia. Its implications, on the other hand, knew no bounds and it demanded to be felt across the globe bringing about economic uncertainties and causing supply chain disruptions. While it did not start the energy crisis, the invasion surely made the situation worse.
Nearly seven months into the war, people are hoping it will be over soon. Along with these hopes is the dream that the underdog (and innocent party) will claim the victory.
Win for Ukraine
Earlier in September, Ukrainian forces managed to recapture swaths of lands in the country's northeast that a few months earlier have been taken over by Russia. Considering this and the possibility that China's tacit support for Russia could be waning, it seems like momentum is on the side of Ukraine.
If that indeed happens, it could mean good things not just for Ukraine but probably for the rest of Europe. Orysia Lutsevych, in an opinion piece for The Guardian, wrote that a victory for Ukraine is vital for Europe to be able to live in peace and work collectively to meet global challenges. Considering the support that a majority of the remainder of Europe and countries in other parts of the world have thrown behind Ukraine, defeat would further entice Russia to flout international law and the sovereignty of other nations.
"The restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity and, ultimately, peace will mean the collapse of Putinism as a doctrine and an end to Russian claims to territorial dominance elsewhere in eastern Europe and Central Asia," Lutsevych added.
On the other hand, a victory for Russia would validate the country's aggressiveness and fuel its desire to further expand its territory. Russia uses newly conquered territories to stage further conflicts and a Ukraine victory would prevent that from happening. Aside from preventing future wars, a victory for Ukraine is also expected to reduce the risk of a mass famine and even restore the stability of economies that have been affected by the sanctions imposed on Russia for instigating the conflict.
What happens to oil when Ukraine wins the war?
When the war started, the price of oil surged past the $130 per barrel mark for the first time since 2008. The Brent benchmark neared the record high of $147 in March exacerbated by the conflict.
Almost seven months into the war, the prices of oil somehow stabilized and is now at ~$90 per barrel for Brent crude as concerns about weaker economic growth and demand drag prices down.
European countries have also been forced to impose price caps on electricity and oil and come up with new taxes for energy companies in order to support their people amid the ongoing energy crisis in the region. Many countries have also started finding alternative energy sources to compensate for the supply cut off from Russia.
Russia has been using the energy crisis as another ploy in its grand battle scheme. Earlier in September, Vladimir Putin said: "We will not supply anything at all if it is contrary to our interests. No gas, no oil, no coal, no fuel oil, nothing."
The potential impacts to the energy market of a Ukraine victory would depend on how Russia will take its defeat. Will it be a gracious loser and choose to capitalize on rebuilding bridges with countries that have been beneficiaries of its supply or a petty loser that will continue to lock in supply for it to use and to sell to select buyers who are probably allies and supporters?
USOIL for a lower low? 🦐USOIL on the 4h chart after the break below the important monthly support retested the structure at the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
The price is trading below a 4h structure and IF the market will break below i will be looking for. a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules,
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
USOIL | Price Is Falling Despite The Energy CrisisUSOIL | Price Is Falling Despite The Energy Crisis
It is strange that despite the energy crisis that all the countries are facing
and the high inflation the USOIL is still very strong.
It looks like it is moving down to the previous price levels close to $60 on the
bigger picture.
The market is still speculating a lot about the problem that with the economic recession
the OIL price should decrease
However, never knows what really is happening after the USOIL considering that it has been all the time
on the opposite direction with the fundamental perspective.
Thank you and Good Luck!
USOIL for a lower low 🦐USOIL on the 4h chart after the break below the important monthly support retested the structure and exactly the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
The price is trading above a 4h structure and IF the market will break below i will be looking for. a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules,
-––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Crude Oil... Long for now, maybe short soon after?Oil has been getting smacked sense the 29th of Aug. losing nearly 17%. It is time for a bounce. Today we are getting a nice reaction at the major trendline that started back in Oct. of 2020. Not only is there an important trendline to consider, but we also have a descending channel that is also coming into play. This channel is also very important as it contains all price action since the invasion of Ukraine.
As we move on into the channel we see a smaller channel, a key range to recapture, and multiple golden pockets. The small channel, I feel, is self-explanatory. The key range to recapture is a price range that has influenced the price sense Nov. 2021, we must break above this range to make this a valid long trade. Finally, I use GPs to help me determine where prices will go. The GP nearest to the current price will be my first take profit target and possible short opt. The second and third GPs are simply two more major Tp targets. The top GP will not only be a great Tp but it will also be a amazing spot to get short on oil.
Good luck!
USOIL | Will The Price Test $70 Soon?OIL | Will the price test $70 soon?
Despite the energy crisis that the whole world is suffering from, we can see strangely that oil is falling in value.
One of these problems is addressed to the possible economic recession that
with this comes the decrease in oil consumption in general.
However, despite that speculation, from a technical point of view
we can see that the price is moving down on the daily chart.
After each breakout of the structure, we can see that the price consolidated a lot of days before the next bearish move.
The same thing can happen again up to $70
Thanks and good luck!
The oil market bows to the tactical strategy of the FEDSpeculators and oil giants seized the moment to maximize their oil profits the past months. With a mixture of war fears, supply fears and the increased demand for crude oil after the Corone pandemic and bad supply chains, a broad panic wave had broken out.
Let's have a short overview about the current situation:
Europe's situation: With India and China importing massive amounts of oil from Russia at very favorable conditions, capacity is freed up on the world market. The new routes have now established themselves, an equilibrium in price and efficiency has now settled in. The same applies to LNG.
Global Supply Chains: They are healing, freight costs are falling, although demand for freight containers remains consistently high, as do increased kerosene prices. An equilibrium is more or less reached.
Wars and conflicts due to lack of food : The grain agreement for fertilizer and grain exports from Ukraine has improved the situation on the world market and avoided narratives for conflicts in poor countries that might lower down oil exports.
Summer session is over : As is known, midsummer is the time when most people in the world travel, especially now after the corona pandemic, many people left by car or plane for the first time since years. The season high is over.
The FED is just trying its best to lower the price below a tactical zone so that speculators are technically afraid to long oil markets. This is to mitigate a price-oil spiral. I expect we will see a 75bps interest hike this month as well to push oil prices below the MA trend lines. Oil prices will fall another good 20-40% in the coming months. There is no way the FED will allow it to pop back above 100$ for the next months, otherwise the mild recession might become a deeper one.
Disclaimer: The information mentioned in my post should be taken with a grain of salt. They are only my personal opinion and do not form facts. They are also not a call or recommendation to open trades, do trades or close positions.
Sitting on a strong support Oil hit this support more than five times and it respected this support so if we received candle confirmation above the support rectangle (the green one) we can long oil
But if it closed under the support wait for retest and then we can go short.
Good luck all if you like my idea like it and comment your opinion 🍀💰😊
USOIL: 80.00 🩸The chart shows the downtrend.
After breaking for the second time the support of 87, it will test 86. We will see if it bounces towards 90 or we go to 83
Technical analysis: daily time frame The RSI is bearish.
DISCLAIMER: This review is not intended to encourage the buying or selling of any particular security. Furthermore, it should not be the basis of any trading action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly recommended before entering into a trade.