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Israel strikes Iran againIsrael retaliated against Iran overnight, which saw the price of WTI crude oil jump nearly 4.5% before giving up some of its gains. Per media reports, three large explosions were heard in the country's south, and the U.S. official announced Israel successfully hit some of the targets, something Iran was quick to deny. Without regard for damages, it is already apparent the two adversaries entered a spiral of reciprocatory aggression. Unless there is any form of effective mediation between the two sides (which is, by the way, unlikely), the conflict could enter a stage of regional war, with Israel potentially fighting on multiple fronts. Needless to say, this has enormous implications for the region, which is responsible for a significant portion of the global oil supply and, thus, influences oil prices (at this point, the only counterweights for the rising price of oil could be OPEC’s willingness to bring production online, protraction of global economic slowdown, and potentially more releases of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves by the USA). Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish (stalling/turning neutral) Weekly time frame = Bullish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
Technicals On Crude Post FOMCWednesday we saw Crude make a nice substantial move downwards as the previous forecasts have shown. A large range day isnt normally followed by another day with a extremely large range and you can think of it like a runner running 800meters and couples minutes later having to run another race shortly after... energy needs to be recouped. I am staying bearish and would like to see the Daily FVG and PDL liquidity taken and Daily FVG to be filled/spiked to. 30min fvg CE aligns with Daily ifvg which I believe should hold price lower. Watch these levels post NY open.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
1 Week Later and Oil is down 3.66%1 Week after the beggining of conflict between Israel and Iran in the middle east, Crude Oil is down 3.66%. Price began trending down all week and then on Thursday there was news of a bombing by Israel which caused a spike in Oil(3.5). This whole move was corrected and we are back to being down on the week. This opposes what I believed may play out this week as my thoughts were 1. Oil is a precious commodity and needed in War 2. The trend thus far this year is Bullish (we are up 13.82%) The market is instead going down and retraced this week. We are currently sitting on the Daily support level 81.23. Price action looks bearish on the Daily as we have a large top wick on the current candle.. moving into the next few weeks we will have a bearish weekly candle behind us that may aid in a descent towards the next Daily level 80.65 and beyond to the next weekly level 77.82. Also, this is in line with current risk-off market sentiment as Oil (Risk-on) is a commodity after all Daily timeframe : The Daily timeframe retested Daily resistance (85.65) and we rejected.
TVC:USOILShort
by ShrewdCatfx
CRUDE OIL Bullish Heist Plan to BuyDear Oil Robbers/Traders, This is our master plan to Heist Bullish side of OIL Barrels based on Thief Trading style Analysis. My dear Robbers U can enter at the any point above my entered area, Our target is Dangerous Red Zone its Strong Resistance Zone. My dear Robbers please book some partial money it will manage our risk. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Loot and escape near the target 🎯 support our robbery plan we can make money take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Thief_Trader
1
Technical Forecast... Crude OilWith FOMC looming today and NFC I don't see any reason for the Weekly SSL to be taken out and price to at least stab into the Daily FVG. I will be looking out for meaning full moves into these price points during NY session today. London may offer a little chance to create some false idea we have done it but usually the move is fake and revisited. 80.50 is my weekly objective as it has been from late last week. So my trade idea's will evolve around price post retracement and then heading down.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
CRUDE OIL Bullish Side Robbery Plan to make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders, This is our master plan to Heist Bullish side of Crude oil Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan i have mentioned with target in the chart focus on Long entry, Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous area market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend change /Strong Pullback happens at the level Bear Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of Powerful dynamic resistance level, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next target. support our robbery plan we can make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by Thief_Trader
1
Crude Oil ForecastSo I was looking at Crude on the weekend and I couldn't determine a clear direction for Monday. Now Monday Is almost over and we Have disrespected the Mean threshold of the Daily +OB I do expect price to be bearish and heading down towards the Daily FVG. An Good indicator on the Daily we have respected the WEEKLY ifvg CE. These things are very important to watch. Before 0930est I will post intra day targets that I suspect will be Draw On Liquidity. Bring on Tuesday!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Why Oil Bulls May Be Right: Signs of a Tightening MarketOil prices have experienced a volatile period in recent months, with concerns about global economic growth and geopolitical tensions battling it out with signs of a tightening physical market. However, for investors with a long-term perspective, recent developments suggest a potential bull run for oil, making it an attractive asset to consider. Here's a deeper dive into why going long on oil could be a strategic move: Tightening Physical Supplies: One of the most compelling arguments for a long position is the evidence of a tightening physical market. This is reflected in key timespreads, which compare the price of oil for immediate delivery to the price for delivery at a future date. In a healthy market with ample supply, the price of oil for immediate delivery would be lower than the price for future delivery (contango). However, when the physical market tightens, the opposite happens – the price of oil for immediate delivery becomes higher than the price for future delivery (backwardation). This phenomenon, currently observed in the oil market, suggests that there is a higher demand for oil right now than there is readily available supply. OPEC+ Production Cuts: Adding fuel to the fire are the production cuts implemented by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+. These cuts, aimed at supporting oil prices, have helped to restrict supply and contribute to the tightening market conditions. While OPEC+ is considering easing the cuts in the coming months, the extent of this easing and its impact on the market remain uncertain. Geopolitical Instability: Geopolitical tensions around the world, particularly in major oil-producing regions, can also disrupt supply and push prices higher. Recent events, such as ongoing conflicts or threats to critical infrastructure, highlight the vulnerability of the global oil supply chain. Limited Non-OPEC Growth: While concerns persist about a potential slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in China, the anticipated increase in oil production from non-OPEC members may be less pronounced than previously expected. This could further exacerbate supply constraints and bolster the case for oil bulls. However, some headwinds remain: It's important to acknowledge the countervailing factors that could dampen oil prices. The persistent issue of inflation in the US, for instance, could lead to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, could strengthen the US dollar and make oil, priced in dollars, more expensive for buyers using other currencies, potentially dampening demand. Conclusion: Despite these headwinds, the evidence of a tightening physical market, coupled with OPEC+ production cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and limited non-OPEC growth, paints a compelling picture for a potential oil price rally. For investors with a long-term perspective, strategically going long on oil could be a profitable decision. However, careful monitoring of factors that might impact supply and demand, such as global economic conditions and policy decisions, is crucial for managing risk and making informed investment choices.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Oil / Crude Oil Heading into end of WeekSo we are on the Daily Not moving with much drive and lets say... obvious direction when it comes to day to day bias (Overall Bearish) I am ONLY focusing on PDH and PDL as targets today with any signal to buy or sell into the market being in a discount before I place a trade. Range day - yes To consider that Thursday's have seen good movement on Oil recently so keep this in mind. Consider also that the Daily wick CE is also aligned with the weekly ifvg. I will be looking to enter positions today as I am a scalper however anything on the 15min or above I would side with caution as prolonged moves may not be on the cards esp going on the last two weeks of PA. Also like to thank the people who Boost my posts it means a lot.
NYMEX:CL1!
by IamThattrader
Jump on the Oil Swings with Confidence!I am excited to share some positive news with you regarding the recent developments in the oil industry. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories took a significant dip last week, falling by a whopping 6.37 million barrels. This decline has sparked a wave of optimism in the market, with WTI prices hovering around $83 a barrel and swinging between gains and losses. As we navigate through this risk-off mood and witness the US stockpile decline, now is the perfect time to consider going long on oil. The potential for further price increases is certainly within reach, and this could be a lucrative opportunity for all of us. So, let's not hesitate and take advantage of these oil swings with confidence. Trust your instincts, do your research, and make informed decisions. Together, we can ride the wave of success in the oil market.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Crude Oil WednesdayToday On the Daily I am in confliction with bias meaning that it could be changing soon if we repeat another bullish closing day. For this I have dropped down onto the 4hr TF and the most recent 4hr -ob is what I will be referencing as to Bullish or Bearish intra day PA. Scalpers Market atm If you un sure, sit still. We did close above the Daily v.i as I have mentioned in my previous posts... so my bias for 80.50 is in jeopardy but as a trader your mind must be dynamic. As I said sit still or scalp but not in the middle.
NYMEX:CL1!
by IamThattrader
CRUDEOIL / USOIL / WTI Bullish Analysis Robbery PlanDear Oil Robbers, This is our master plan to Heist Bullish side of OIL Barrels. My dear Robbers U can enter at the any point above my entered area MA Pullback, Our target is Red Zone Snake Trap Zone. My dear Robbers please book some partial money it will manage our risk. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Loot and escape near the target 🎯 support our robbery plan we can make money take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.
TVC:USOILLong
by Thief_Trader
WTI CRUDE OIL: Testing the 1D MA50 after 2 months.WTI Crude Oil came to day to the closest point it has been near the 1D MA50 in more than 2 months, since the February 6th breakout. The 1D technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 48.820, MACD = 1.03, ADX = 27.71) indicating that this is the most efficient buy entry since the February low. The market has already formed a 1D Golden Cross and displays striking similarities with the 2023 rally, which on August 24th 2023 made a bottom near the 1D MA50 and on the 0.5 Fibonacci level with the price then rallying enormously to 95.00. Due to this strong symmetry, we expect an identical pattern thus turning bullish again and aiming at the R1 level (TP = 95.00) once more. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
Oil Traders Navigate Geopolitical Risk in Already Tight MarketThe recent escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict has cast a long shadow over the global oil market. Already grappling with tight supply and high prices, oil traders are now forced to factor in the potential for disruptions caused by the ongoing hostilities. This idea explores the current situation, potential outcomes, and analyst perspectives on the future of oil prices. A Market on Edge: Tight Supply and Geopolitical Risk The oil market entered 2024 facing a confluence of factors pushing prices upwards. Limited production increases from OPEC+, ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war, and a rebounding global economy demanding more energy all contributed to a tight supply situation. This dynamic sent oil prices surging above $90 a barrel earlier this year. The escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel adds a new layer of uncertainty to this already volatile market. Iran's direct attack on Israel marks a significant shift, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East, a region that accounts for roughly a fifth of global oil production. Focus on the Strait of Hormuz A key concern for oil traders is the potential for disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's oil transits. Any actions that threaten the free flow of oil through this strategic waterway could send prices skyrocketing. Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait in response to heightened tensions, and recent events have heightened focus on this possibility. Futures Market Reacts, But Risks Remain Following the initial attack by Iran, oil futures prices did experience a spike as traders factored in the increased risk premium. However, prices have since eased somewhat, indicating a degree of cautious optimism that the situation might not escalate further. Despite this, analysts warn that the underlying risks remain. Analysts Weigh In: Possible Outcomes and Price Predictions Several potential scenarios could emerge from the current situation, each with its own impact on oil prices. • Tighter Sanctions: Banks like Goldman Sachs highlight the possibility of stricter sanctions being imposed on Iran, potentially leading to a loss of 500,000 to 1 million barrels of oil per day from the global market. • Israeli Military Response: Analysts at RBC Capital Markets warn that a significant Israeli retaliation could trigger a destabilizing cycle, further disrupting oil supplies and pushing prices even higher. • Limited Conflict: Other analysts, like ING, suggest that the market had already priced in the possibility of a limited attack, and the potential for a measured Israeli response could see prices stabilize or even decline slightly. • Citigroup, however, takes a more cautious approach, raising its short-term price forecasts due to the "extremely high" tensions. They estimate that a full-blown conflict between Iran and Israel could see oil prices surge as high as $100 per barrel. Looking Ahead: A Market in Flux The future trajectory of oil prices hinges largely on how the situation between Iran and Israel unfolds. While the easing of futures prices offers a glimmer of hope, the underlying risks remain. Oil traders must closely monitor developments in the region and adjust their strategies accordingly. Analysts remain divided, with some predicting further escalation and others hoping for a de-escalation. One thing is certain: the coming weeks will be crucial in determining the fate of oil prices in the near future.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
Crude Oil's Bull Run No Signs of Stopping: Will It Soon Hit $90?Hi Realistic Traders, let's discuss the latest surge in WTI Crude Oil Price Why have Oil prices surged? In the second quarter of 2024, Russia plans to cut its crude oil production in line with OPEC+ agreements, gradually reducing output each month from April to June. This decision follows earlier cuts made in April 2023 and March 2024, with export reductions also phased in gradually. Meanwhile, tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalated over the weekend with both sides conducting airstrikes. Russia targeted Ukraine's western region of Lyiv and the capital, Kyiv, on Sunday, following drone strikes on Russian oil refineries in the Samara region on Saturday. In retaliation, Russia attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure on Friday. These developments have heightened concerns about further escalation. After talking about the fundamental drivers, now let's delve into the technical analysis: In our technical analysis, we have identified several significant indicators suggesting a bullish trend in WTI Crude Oil. The consistent movement of the price above the EMA200 line indicates robust bullish momentum within the market. Moreover, the formation of both a Symmetrical Triangle and a Falling Wedge pattern implies a continuation of the bullish trend. The recent breakout from these patterns further reinforces the potential for an upward movement toward the target area. Additionally, the upward momentum indicated by the momentum indicator confirms the prevailing bullish sentiment in WTI Crude Oil. In summary, these technical signals collectively also support a favorable bullish outlook for the designated target. It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on TVC:USOIL ." Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below
TVC:USOILLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
Oil Prices Surge on Rising Tensions in the Middle EastOil prices surged today, reaching their highest level since October 2023, amid heightened geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. The increase comes as Israel braces for a potential retaliatory strike from Iran following a recent Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria. This latest development adds another layer of uncertainty to the already volatile global oil market. Concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East, a region that accounts for roughly one-third of the world's crude oil output, are driving prices higher. Rising Tensions Fuel Oil Price Rally News reports, citing sources familiar with the matter, suggest that Israel is preparing for a possible attack from Iran or its proxies in the coming days. This follows the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria last week, which was widely seen as a significant escalation of tensions between the two nations. The United States and its allies believe that a major missile attack by Iran is imminent. This perceived threat of a wider conflict in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through the oil market. Investors are concerned that any military confrontation could disrupt oil production and exports from the region, leading to a significant supply shortfall. This perception of risk is reflected in the options market, where traders are actively buying call options – contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase oil at a certain price by a certain date. The increased demand for call options suggests that many investors are anticipating a further rise in oil prices. Analysts Weigh In: Bullish vs. Cautious Analysts are divided on the potential impact of the current situation on oil prices. Some, like those at Commerzbank, believe that a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran would be a "game-changer" for the oil market, leading to a significant and sustained price increase. Others, however, are taking a more cautious approach. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report today, downgrading its outlook for global oil demand this year and next. The report cites the ongoing economic slowdown in China, the world's largest oil importer, as a key factor behind the downward revision. Beyond the Middle East: Other Factors at Play While the Israel-Iran tensions are currently the dominant factor driving oil prices higher, it's important to remember that other factors are also at play in the global oil market. • Limited Spare Capacity: OPEC, the world's leading oil producer cartel, and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, have limited spare production capacity. This means that if there is a disruption in oil supplies from the Middle East, it will be difficult to quickly replace the lost barrels. • Geopolitical Risks Beyond the Middle East: Recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine have also contributed to the overall sense of unease in the oil market. • Post-Pandemic Recovery: The ongoing global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continues to drive up demand for oil, particularly in transportation sectors. The Road Ahead: A Balancing Act The future path of oil prices will depend on how the situation in the Middle East unfolds. If a wider conflict is averted, oil prices could moderate somewhat, especially if the IEA's concerns about slowing demand materialize. However, if tensions escalate and there is a significant disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East, then a sustained price increase is highly likely. Additionally, how OPEC+ responds to the evolving situation will also be a key factor. The cartel is currently scheduled to meet in May to discuss production quotas. If they decide to maintain their current production levels or even cut output, it could further tighten the market and push prices even higher. Impact on Consumers and Businesses Rising oil prices have a ripple effect throughout the global economy. Consumers are likely to see higher prices at the pump, as gasoline and diesel costs typically track the price of crude oil. Businesses that rely heavily on oil and other energy sources will also face higher input costs, which could lead to higher prices for goods and services across the board. This could further dampen economic growth, especially in countries that are already grappling with high inflation. Conclusion: A Volatile Market with High Stakes The oil market is currently in a state of high uncertainty. The rising tensions in the Middle East are a significant risk factor, but they are not the only factor at play. The interplay of supply and demand dynamics, the actions of OPEC+, and the overall health of the global economy will all play a role in determining the future path of oil prices. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain volatile as investors grapple with the potential for a wider conflict in the Middle East. In the long term, the outlook for oil prices will depend on a complex mix of factors, making it difficult to predict with certainty where they will go from here.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln