Oilwti
MASSIVE OIL Sells on Daily chartAs i mentioned before in my post - we're waiting for OIL shorts. So now we have:
1) Huge false break out on DAily of S/R level.
2) False breakout of 61.8 FIBO zone.
3) Short candlesticks formation on DAILY.
4) Engulfing DAILY candle
5) Close lower previous HL (higher low)
6) Break of DAILY trend line
7) MAssive volume over $65 zone
OIL TARGET REGIONS MAPPED OUTOil on the 1day view and possible targets outlined, trade within and/or watch out for a future break in trend.
If oil does stay within channel then expect a drop from around 60.90 - 61.30
If market breaks up then next big target region 67.60 - 68.00
Warning; trading comes with risks, trade safely and within reason. All charts to be used for guideline purposes only.
West Texas Oil - Bullish Trend Continues.....After a long accumulation range that end last quarter of 2018 , we saw a breakout with the price reaching the mid seventies.
This was our first indication that a trend is about to begin. The price then pulled back into the buy zone(75-87.5 fibs) and produced a buy pivot.
Good stopping volume came into halt the price as it move back to the center of the accumulation range.
In Wyckoff terms this is - "Jumping across the creek" and a "Back to the creek".
We should see price move higher, back above the mid seventies.
Pressure on the oil market is growingThe rise of oil process that has been observed recently was associated with the threat of hurricane Gordon in the Gulf of Mexico. More precisely, with it’s possible large-scale consequences. Recall that last year the strongest hurricane led to the shutdown of a number of refineries in the US coast and caused the imbalance in the oil market. Similar feared and this year.
But judging by the latest information, the consequences will not be catastrophic. Watching the dynamics of oil prices in the last couple of days, the markets no longer consider this factor as a possible negative.
The main threat to the oil market for today is the US sanctions against Iran and their possible consequences in terms of reducing supply in the oil market.
But on the other hand, we have Trump's trading wars, which call into question the economic growth in the world and, accordingly, reduce the forecasts for oil demand. This means that oil is also being pressured. Panic moods and sales in emerging markets (among victims are Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia, Argentina and many others) uniquely generate a negative information background for oil.
So, our strategic vision for the oil market remains unchanged. In the conditions when OPEC + ceased to exist, and the demand for oil is threatened by the crisis in emerging markets, any increase in oil should be used for its sale. And such short-term panic attacks like oil growth on fears of hurricane "Gordon" should be used for oil sales.
CRUDE OIL LONG-TERM OUTLOOK TO GO 'SHORT'Looking at the long-term analysis on the 1D view of Crude Oil, it looks like it is headed downward. Swing trade wise, it could still go up to 67/68 region, which you can swing trade if the opportunity presents itself. However, long-term view Oil is headed downward from it's July's high of 74, prices are below ichimoku cloud which is bear market indication. Now it could take weeks/months to hit bottom but I suggest leaning toward bear trend for the long-term outlook.
Have a look at 1HR or even 4/hr view for a more suitable entry point to go short. Suitable entry point being when many indicators are corresponding to go short, this way you are not stuck in a huge retracement and confuse for a trend reversal.
'A retracement is a temporary reversal in the direction of a stock's price that goes against the prevailing trend.'
The different yellow horizontal lines represent possible support and resistance areas after analyzing Oil market on 4HR, 1D and the 1W view. I suggest using it as a guideline and look for areas yourself and work with indicators in the long term view to determine when you want to exit market.
Please remember to look at what indicators are telling you if you can understand some, as they would likely help you determine a suitable entry point. Also, do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the posiblity to hedge yourself, for more confident traders imo.
All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.
WTI Fibonacci Support Resistance Zones: Crude Oil as of Jun 17These zones are calculated using Fibonacci Ratios of past price moves.
Fib extensions and retracements are projected forward in time and price.
If price bounces or reverses, it will probably do so at one of these zones.
Some zones will match previous highs and lows, since Fibs are derived from the extremes.
Some zones will not match anything previous, but they are Fib multiples and THOSE are the important ones.
Zones that are far from current price will be either WIDE or just a LINE. Just a line indicates important Fib Ratio.
Where prices overlap on the zone lines, drag the Right (price) Axis up to magnify and reduce overlap vertically.
There are zones above and below the current price range, Drag the Chart up/down to see other zones.
Drag bottom axis to the left to magnify the candle size to view close up, or to the right to view larger time frame.
I will update as new zones are defined by upcoming Fibs.
Range trading: Gold and Oil as for 04/26/2018Here we publish signals of the indicator called “Ranger” . It was developed by our experts for intraday trading purposes.
This indicator is based on statistical analysis of the data and provides information about possible maximum/minimum values of the day (just right after the day has started) with certain probabilities.
What does this information give to the trader? Actually, a lot. First of all, trading signals. For example, if during a day the price approaches the upper (lower) mark, it can be concluded that it will not go higher (lower) prescribed mark today with already known probability. So, you can open a position opposite to the current movement, knowing in advance that it will be profitable with certain probability.
Gold
Long position 1
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 1312.20
Long position 2
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability 95%) 1306.91
Long position 3
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability 99%) 1301.62
Short position 1
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 1334.17
Short position 2
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 1339.46
Short position 3
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 1344.75
Oil (WTI)
Long position 1
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 66.95
Long position 2
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability 95%) 66.37
Long position 3
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability 99%) 65.79
Short position 1
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 69.45
Short position 2
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 70.03
Short position 3
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 70.61
Calculations are based on the historical data and history doesn’t necessarily repeat this particular day. About mentioned probabilities are not 100% and do not guarantee risk-free trading.
USDWTI Possible ShortI'm expecting a short here but either way, if it a 1 hour candle closes outside of the box I will enter a short. For best results, watch for it to close outside of the zone and then re-test the break.
Possible trend change longer term as well so you may be able to hold long term (Much longer than the three TP's.
Trading Correlation on Crude Oil Futures - Brent Oil vs WTIWest Texas Oil and Brent Crude Oil are well correlated. Recently we spotted a discrepancy between them leading to overpricing of Brent Futures and under pricing of WTI Futures. Thus we made a synthetic position consist of equal dollar weighted long position in WTI and Short Position in Brent Futures. Trade was initiated on 08 of September and will be closed when the gap in the relative strength between the two futures on 15 minute chart disappear.
Waiting for confirmation to go Long OilOil is hugging the 200 day MA pretty well - The MACD still shows downward movement, however the stochastic is saying to get ready for a change perhaps and the RSI is showing signs of some exhaustion. I'd expect some more sideways movement in the range of 49.30 to 50.10 - but eventually I'm looking to go long again.
OIL SHORT: Biggest scam of the year or technical consolidation?Dear shorts, I know most of us are extremely frustrated with the situation of OIL in the past (almost) 2 months. Whilst it should have retraced a long time ago, it can't seem to do so. In the early stages of this short trade, mostly technical indicators supported the idea whilst in the past ±4 weeks fundamental factors should cause oil to crash, since despite OPEC's pitiful attempt to cut production, the glut has grown. Yet, we see oil refusing to crash and moreover, we see oil skyrocketing on days where data is the worst. This makes no sense fundamentally and thus I was led to conclude that there are MM involved in this state in which oil is traded under. Still, before every major downturn for oil we see a period of consolidation ranging from 16d to 58d. The longer the consolidation the worst the movement downwards (statistically). Despite my frustration I have been averaging down my position every time I find an opportunity. The downturn should start soon and it will be ugly. All the pumpers will flee and oil should crash. Yet, there is a possibility that pumpers win since the divergence between Hedge Fund and retail traders positions are at a huge divergence. Thus, I will set my stop in the range of 55-55.35.
Still short this till the 40's.I ended up holding my short position today, still in the hunt for the 40's.
Bear divergence still there, RSI trending down towards oversold.
Oil seems to be bouncing in between the two light blue bars, watch for a strong break either way.
Pair this with my other ideas.