OJ - Frozen Orange Juice Is DoneIn my YT Video Analysis I talked about, how OJ is at the Apex and has a high chance to fall down to the Center-Line.
On the daily chart (see the zoomed Screenshot), you see how price is struggling to get above the U-MLH.
Great signs of weakness.
But beware, OJ is super illiquid. This means that this market can get pushed in any direction, in any magnitude.
However, it's very cool to observe, how even such over-pumped markets react to my super tools, the Andrews Pitchfork aka. Medianlines.
Let's observe how this plays out.
We can learn a lot, and use this knowledge in the future for our own trading.
As for the Medianline-Framework, price falls down to the Center-Line when traded outside the U-MLH, and then comes back into the Fork.
Observation Mode ON!
Peace4TheWorld
Oj
INFLATION INCOMING - Real world implications (Oranges)Orange Juice is a clean way to define a couple of key things:
-- Weather forecasts
-- Inflation
-- Supply shocks
-- Global trade
Recently, I've taken note that OJ futures have skyrocketed more than 200% in the last 3 years. I was so surprised in fact, I had to look at it versus other commodities, which have seen a mild bounce (Wheat, Oats). And bigger spikes (Pork, Chicken) during the supply shocks of the pandemic.
But OJ keeps bucking the trend! Is this the REAL effect of inflation?
INFLATION is coming (Real consumer costs) Orange Juice is a clean way to define a couple of key things:
-- Weather forecasts
-- Inflation
-- Supply shocks
-- Global trade
Recently, I've taken note that OJ futures have skyrocketed more than 200% in the last 3 years. I was so surprised in fact, I had to look at it versus other commodities, which have seen a mild bounce (Wheat, Oats). And bigger spikes (Pork, Chicken) during the supply shocks of the pandemic.
But OJ keeps bucking the trend! Is this the REAL effect of inflation?
OJ Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for OJ is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 2.1151, where the 100% Fibonacci projection line and 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 2.2944, where the previous swing high is. Take profit will be at 1.9053, where the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci line are.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Orange Juice Potential For Bearish DropOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for OJ is bearish . To add confluence to this, price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 2.1151, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and 100% Fibonacci projection line are. Stop loss will be at 2.2944, where the previous swing high is. Take profit will be at 1.9053, where the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Orange Juice Potential For Bearish DropOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for OJ is bearish . To add confluence to this, price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 2.1151, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and 100% Fibonacci projection line are. Stop loss will be at 2.2944, where the previous swing high is. Take profit will be at 1.9053, where the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
OJ Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for OJ is bearish . To add confluence to this, price is crossing below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 2.1151, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and 100% Fibonacci projection line are. Stop loss will be at 2.2944, where the previous swing high is. Take profit will be at 1.9053, where the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Orange Juice Potential For Bearish DropOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for OJ is bearish. To add confluence to this, price is crossing the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bearish market. Looking for an immediate sell entry at 2.1151, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and 100% Fibonacci projection line are located. Stop loss will be set at 2.2944, where the previous swing high is located. I am looking to take profit at 1.9053, where the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
OJ Potential For Bullish MomentumOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for OJ is bullish . Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating that the market is bullish . Looking for a pullback buy entry at 1.9053, where the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci lines are located. We've set a relatively safe stop loss at 1.6846, which is where the 23.6% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines intersect. The take profit level will be 2.1151 , which is where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and 100% Fibonacci project line are located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Sugar and FCOJ Take the Bullish BatonThe soft commodities sector of the commodity market can be highly volatile. Historically, sugar, coffee, cotton, cocoa, and frozen concentrated orange juice futures that trade on the Intercontinental Exchange have doubled, tripled, and halved in value over short periods. While clothing and other consumer goods depend on the cotton market, the other sector members are foods.
The soft commodity sector rose in 2021, and Q1 2022
Coffee and cotton rose to multi-year highs in 2022
FCOJ takes off on the upside in April and makes a new multi-year high
Sugar could be next for three reasons
Trading softs from the long side- Buy those dips
Brazil is the world’s leading producer and exporter of three of the soft commodities; sugar, coffee, and oranges. Sugar comes from two sources, sugar beets and sugarcane. Brazil’s tropical climate makes it the leading sugarcane producer. Arabica coffee beans are popular in the US and other areas, while Robusta beans produce espresso coffees. Brazil leads the world in Arabica production. While many people associate orange production with Florida and California, Brazil is the world’s top orange producer. Cocoa, the primary ingredient in chocolate confectionery products, comes mainly from West Africa, as the Ivory Coast and Ghana produce over 60% of the world’s annual supplies.
Soft commodities are agricultural products, so the weather in growing areas typically determines the prices each year. Since the 2020 pandemic, the price action has been anything but ordinary.
The two latest soft commodities to lead the sector on the upside have been sugar and FCOJ futures.
The soft commodity sector rose in 2021, and Q1 2022
In 2021, the composite of the five soft commodities that trade in the futures markets on the Intercontinental Exchange rose 31.57%. In Q1 2022, the softs added to gains, rising 6.58%, with all five members posting gains.
Cotton futures led the softs higher with a 20.51% gain. Cocoa futures moved 5.16% to the upside, with FCOJ posting a 3.86% gain. Sugar rallied 3.23%, and Arabica coffee futures eked out a 0.13% gain.
Meanwhile, coffee and cotton rose to new multi-year highs during the first three months of 2022.
Coffee and cotton rose to multi-year highs in 2022
In June 2020, coffee futures made a higher low under the $1 per pound level before taking off on the upside.
The weekly chart shows the bullish trend of higher lows and higher highs that took coffee futures to $2.6045 per pound in early February 2022. Coffee futures rose to the highest price since 2011.
Cotton futures also rose to the highest level since 2011, peaking at the $1.4614 per pound level in April 2022.
Coffee futures were over the $2.20 level, with cotton above $1.40 on April 14.
FCOJ takes off on the upside in April and makes a new multi-year high
Frozen concentrated orange juice futures are the least liquid of the five soft commodities, based on daily volume and open interest metrics. While the FCOJ futures arena rose to a new multi-year high in Q1 2022, the bullish price action continued in April with higher highs.
The chart shows that nearby FCOJ futures rose to $1.8660 per pound last week, the highest level since March 2017. The all-time high in the orange juice market came in 2016 at $2.35 per pound.
Brazil is the leading producer and exporter of oranges and Arabica coffee beans. The South American country also is the leader in free-market sugarcane production and exports.
Sugar could be next for three reasons
Sugar futures rose to 20.69 cents per pound in November 2021, the highest price since February 2017.
The weekly chart shows that sugar futures were above the 20 cents per pound level last week. Sugar is approaching the first technical resistance level at the November 2021 20.69 cents high. Above there, the next target is at the October 2016 23.90 high, which is a technical gateway to the 2011 36.08 cents per pound peak.
Three factors support sugar prices in April 2022:
Rising inflation is lifting all commodity prices, and the trend is always your best friend in markets across all asset classes.
Rising crude oil and natural gas prices support sugar. Crude oil is over the $100 per barrel level, and natural gas stopped just short of $7 per MMBtu last week. Multi-year highs in the energy market support sugar as it is the primary input in Brazilian ethanol production. As more sugarcane goes into ethanol production, less is available for exports.
Sugarcane production costs are increasing as they are labor-intensive. The rising Brazilian real makes sugar more expensive to produce.
The chart illustrates the technical breakout to the upside in the Brazilian currency against the US dollar. A higher real increases the cost of production, putting upside pressure on sugar’s price.
Trading softs from the long side- Buy those dips
Stocks and bonds have been shaky in 2022, and cryptocurrencies have not yet of the slump that took prices lower since the November 2021 highs. Commodities have been the place to be for investors and traders over the first four months of 2022. The latest inflation report will likely keep the bullish party in raw material markets going.
I remain bullish on soft commodities as they are highly volatile and can offer explosive returns. Sugar is my top choice as of April 15, as the sweet commodity loosed poised to eclipse the 2021 high on its way to higher ground. Meanwhile, I favor all soft commodities in the current environment. The optimal approach to the sector has been buying on price weakness, and I expect that to continue. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and corrections can be the best route to optimizing returns over the coming weeks and months.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
HTZZ - Hertz / Brady SPAC King / EV's & AOs / DGsHTZZ is NOT a SELL until the AO -Re-peaks over 12.
As it vaults over Airport Chairs like OJ.
Wall Street wants the 40 then 50 handle.
Go Juice Go~!
By the Numbers.
Brady, the SPAC King of the NFL and arguably one of
the Greatest QB's to every play the Game...
Yeah, naw, he's playing Wall Streets Game.
OJ - Weekly resistanceHere we have the pullback to the former support, now resistance. It's a classic setup where I look to go short, maybe in the daily TF.
Watch out for shoot through the line...be patient!
Target is the Centerline.
P!
Orange Juice - At critical levelI am going to wait for a signal to short this. This has been an incredibly powerful bull run. As you could see, OJ runs with force when it trends, so it's a very difficult market to capture unless you're way ahead.
Ultimately, level 3 should be established at some point and OJ will probably create a new range above 200. For now let's look at the signals and short this if we can.
Orange Juice to 160Orange Juice has put in a weekly pin bar at the major level of $200. Also, on the daily chart we put in a evening star, which spells trouble for the future prices. We also are in an ascending wedge that if broken in the near term future targets $160. This wedge also has weekly divergence, which confirms this move. The next support level would be $100. Finally, from a fundamental view less and less frozen OJ is being bought from consumers all while price is at the highest level it's been, which doesn't make sense seeing that demand is just overall low. Yes, of course there is less producing now and businesses shutting down in Florida, but the reason is because of the demand. All the details are in the chart.
Long term OJ Analysis I'm bearish for now. Don't see any reason to buy unless we go in the 70's. Will go short if there's a decisive break under 104