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BTCCNY: Daily updateThis is what we're looking at here. We're already in a full position, so, we're limited to use leverage to add trades here. We took a long, currently in profit, and we're aiming to book profits and reduce our long term position against resistance higher. We'd like to see the following happen next: No new lows after today. Daily close above 5175. Price not hitting going under 4811, and not hitting 3991 by the 16th (if #1 and #2 happen...naturally, this won't occur) Price return to 6300 give or take, within a few days, and then go up to test the PBOC key level. After this happens, we'll need to see how price action evolves, in which case, I'd favor booking profits from our longs, except for the core long term position of 15-30%. In my case, I aim to hold 20/20%, in ETH and BTC, and not close these until we achieve the long term targets described in my other charts. Good luck to us all. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
48
China and their love of 8'sThe number 8 has always been of great significance for China, and for that reason, I believe we may see values as large as 88888CNY, in the not so distant future. The manipulation that continuously occurs. has allowed consecutive 8's, to become either a final flash of support or resistance. A milestone, followed by a swift return to the median. Thus far, both local lows and highs respectively. Now, once we factor in halving, a parabolic move of this nature does not seem so far-fetched.
BLong
by maxgame
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" We're Going To MARSIn the words of Alan Greenspan, you know the rumpled old geezer that speaks in rhymes, said something about irrational exuberance in the markets, I will invoke those same words. BEWARE OF IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE in the bitcoin market. What's causing this straight up spike in price? The China devaluation of the Yuan, the India currency confiscation, and here's a new one, the Brazil distrust and ejection of big government communists, have all laid a foundation of Bitcoin price support. It didn't hurt that Trump got elected, that the dark cloud of illegal immigration in Europe is causing a nationalistic resurgence, that Italian and other Euro banks are failing. These are all fundamental strengths. But what has taken place in the last 3 weeks in Bitcoin, a 50% gain, cannot go on forever. This is a classical setup to a blow off top. The Yuan is at a 6 year low relative to the dollar. This will not last. The cost to China industry for raw imports like coal and oil will be through the roof. China will move into recession/depression. Civil unrest there will emerge as jobs dry up from industry contraction. The Chinese government needs to stop the Yuan devaluation to preserve its control over the population. NOTHING GOES STRAIGHT UP IN VALUE FOREVER. There will be an end, and it will be dramatic. I kind of think that the big boys are looking to touch an all time high and then take profits faster than you can say WTF. What kind of evidence do I have? NONE. It's just a gut feel. So, I have loosely defined the top. Where's the bottom? There is solid support at $750. My advice. Take down incremental profit into this rally. Don't sell everything because we don't know where the top actually is and we're nearing uncharted territory as far as the technical tools. Just take down the profit you feel you don't deserve. When the market drops down to rational support, re-invest the profit. If the scenario plays out, the technical pattern will be a GIANT cup with handle formation. A breakout from the cup will have an approximate $2000 target. When? The cup is three years long. It could take another year for the beginning of a breakout. So, maybe, 2 years for a target. I'm still sticking to my $750 by mid February prediction although if the pullback shows signs of support at $950, I'll gladly raise my expectations.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by investigator
6
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" The China Yuan DevaluationThis 8 week arm of the 1.5 year BTC rally is about to subside. First a little history. The Chinese investors (not the government) are in control of BTC value. The Chinese banksters are actively devaluing the Yuan. This is round two of major devaluation moves and it is nearing completion. As it completes the Chinese investors will start taking down their profit converting BTC back into Yuan. The evidence: On the BTCCNY chart the volume in this rally was through the roof. This has tailed off while price continues to climb. This last push is by uniformed stragglers and the informed are about to eat their lunch. On the BTCUSD chart, the volume of this devaluation rally was almost non-existent. The US investors are either completely demoralized or distracted or both. I'm sure the Bitfinex hack pushed many US investors out of the market. Nevertheless, the real indicator to look at is the oscillator Stoch shown in the graph above. It is screaming TOP TOP TOP as what little USD volume there was has tailed off to nothing. The Technicals: I drew a long term resistance level months and months ago based on Fibonacci wedge analysis. This is represented by the blue hash line. The price has reached this resistance. So how do I know the resistance is real? I don't. It's an educated guess. If I am right, this rally will correct back to the red hash rally trend line. This can either be a slow bleed (likely) or a quick retraction (unlikely). My call a couple months ago for $750 by February is still in play. While a penetration into resistance can still happen, the weak volume in the USD market and the dropping volume in the CNY market are strong indicators that a penetration, if it happens, will be short lived. This picture could change in February. From here on out, the total market quantity of BTC will flatten out as minors start to go off-line and transition into full time transfer agent servicing. This will be the foundation for further growth in the value of a BTC. Right now the USD is strong. Trump may succeed with his mandate and change is in the wind but the long term problems of the unfunded liability of the US federal government are YUGER. The federal reserve cannot raise interest rates without destroying the federal government budget. To continue fundingg deficit spending, more dollars must be created. The more dollars that exist, the less they will buy. This is called inflation. Hyperinflation is showing up in a few places, real estate, health care costs, and higher education costs, and it will expand to other areas. In the long term USD strength is a short term delusion.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by investigator
3
BTCCNY: Weekly uptrend updateI highlighted the weekly support buy zones we have had in the past, as well as the curretly active one. The 8h setup I pointed at might not work with a tight stop, but it's still good to hold longs from 4950-5100 overall. Just make sure your risk, if adding new positions is 1-2% max, if price were to go against you and hit 4805.26. It really shouldn't, to conserve the uptrend speed and achieve 5710.74 on time. If we don't hit this level before December 12th, then Bitcoin might endure a correction which could be a pullback, or simply lack of activity and a slow sideways drift again, before more upside is attainable. Fundamentals would have to get in line, but for now, technicals give us comfort in long positions. Watch the linear regression channel support, watch the moving average on chart, we shouldn't see a close below them, and we should hit the target we have here on time. Also, watch the speed line on chart, which indicates the minimum required pace the uptrend has to keep to remain valid, all of these tools tell us when to expect a correction. The only thing is that which we can't know in advance what the price behavior will be after it starts, so, we'll have to react and not predict too far in the future. Long term target remains above 7000, based on weekly signals, and there's a longer term timeframe signal pointing way higher as well, so, there's no need to fear long trades, as long as we time the entry correctly, they will reward us handsomely. Good luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclosure: I hold long positions with no leverage, nor stop losses, that equate to 55% of my account value currently, all in profit, except for the last entry at break even or minor loss. I have been buying and selling dips, to book profits and allow me to keep risk free holds.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: Update - Weekly trend intactBTCCNY is breaking above the recent key resistance generated by the news related to Chinese capital controls. It seems that the news were discarded as a rumor, and now investors have absorbed the selling, and are ready to bid prices higher. I'm holding a 30% long position now, since I doubled at 4918 and tightened my stop loss to 4870. My average entry is lower, so I'm holding a risk free trade, with a profit if stopped out. Target is 6555 at least, the retest of the Black Market Reloaded closing key level, or the weekly 'Time at mode' target at 7047.01. This could evolve into a longer term bimonthly uptrend as well, which is currently active, and implying way higher prices, so I will simply hold my position for as long as possible, only closing half of it at my weekly target zone, and trading around the core 15% long term long position from here onwards. You can see how the key levels and the 'Time at mode' analysis have been useful in trading this market, and predicting the turns, where to enter, where to add, where to place stops, etc. Review my previous publications for more information. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
11
BTCUSD index: Buy dips, sell partially on rallies, rinse/repeatThe BTCUSD index chart here depicts an interesting price pattern, a cup and handle in the making. This pattern usually is powerful, specially when the signal coincides with a 'Time at mode' trend signal and is coherent with all the technical and fundamental observations we can make here. I don't personally use it for trading decisions, but it's certainly visible, specially if you look at the highest daily lows, and lowest daily highs on chart (refer to my educational piece for info on how to use that information). The weekly time at mode setup is shown in the related idea below, as well as my trade calls posted here lately. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
OKCOIN:BTCUSDIDXLong
by IvanLabrie
9
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" THEY'RE BAAAACK! (more)Go back and read my previous published idea. I pointed out there is a huge difference between the Chinese Yuan/BTC chart and the BTCUSD chart. I thought I should show you the difference and speculate where this will end. First the previous devaluation the volume was very small relative to what's going on this time around. That's because the Chinese insiders profited nicely in their first experiment with Bitcoin. This time they are more than doubling down. The final day of the rally previously and the day the Yuan was devalued was the day of the Brexit vote. The news media hardly reported about the devaluation event. This time around it is a complete and expanded repeat. What event is coming up that will obscure the news the Chinese are manipulating their currency in a big way? THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DAY!!!!! Look for the Chinese to move out of Bitcoin in a big way as the Yuan is devalued again. I'm LONG for another week and look to get out while the BTCUSD price settles back to the major trend line I have illustrated in my previous charts.
BLong
by investigator
2
BTC WEEKLY CHART: "The Panic Zone" THEY'RE BAAAACK!Actually "THEY" never left. The volume of Chinese Yuan moving into Bitcoin is off the charts. It's ten to fifteen times larger than the previous Yuan devaluation I noted with the May 23 "Chinese Insiders" chart tag. The current round of volume and valuation have not been completely reflected in the BTC/USD chart. The US investors are still asleep. There is huge upside pressure on the BTC/USD price. Here's what's going on. The Yuan is about to be devalued again. The Chinese government likes to pin the Yuan value to the USD. The USD has been rising against other currencies because of a perceived safe haven from problems with other currencies. My opinion is this perception is ill placed but that is not the topic of this discussion. The reality of the manipulated connection between the Yuan and the USD is that this makes Chinese manufactured goods too expensive and the Chinese government is about to take action to correct this problem in a big way. We have already seen China dump massive US debt. They did this just prior to the previous devaluations too. Hang on to your hats. We're in for a ride!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by investigator