If BTC can't break 2951, then history will repeat.Red lines = everytime MACD (11,24,11) divergence has gone below -10 after being up > +10. As you can plainly see, it's pretty rare that the 1 day MACD is unreliable with these parameters. This recent fall has tried and failed multiple times to get past the 2951CNY mark. If we use 11/10 as a guide BTC would be going down 20% to around 2330---however I'm at least a little more optimistic that it will, at worst, bounce on the 2450 (or maybe simply 2500) fibonacci support line before climbing back up.
Bear in mind (no pun intended) that the 1 week MACD is due for a drop though, meaning things could get perilous real fast.
Okcoin
XBTEUR: Bitcoin's monthly signalsIn this monthly chart I have outlined the different support and resistance levels on the monthly chart for Kraken.
I'm using this pair, since it appears to have real volume data and a more legit price action so to speak, unlike that of other exchanges with wash volume , rogue market maker activity and whatnot.
The target for the first monthly signal has been long reached, and part of that trade could be closed there (as signaled by the chart). I had shared monthly longs to capture this movement before, but for btccny1.00% at btcchina and also bitstamp .
Currently the trend is up and we have more and more evidence of continued strength.
As long as price is supported above 324-354, it'll be more and more probable to see further continuation.
I will update this chart when we get a new monthly long signal, with a defined entry, exit and stop loss.
Potential targets are on chart and also the target for the currently active trend in pink.
If interested, I'm running a Bitcoin trading signals group, contact me for more information to join.
Cheers,
Ivan.
If you go overall support we get to 390$. If support 420$ maintaIf you go overall support we get to 390$. If support 420$ maintain the price go up to 460$.
LTC: close to break up/down?1st possibility: The GREEN abcde with target between 65cny and 80cny if this was a WXY correction (triangle) into an uptrend, otherwise
2nd possibility: The YELLOW abcde if it was the last part of the whole correction. This would probably finish at double bottom between 13cny and 5.4cny.
3rd possibility: The PURPLE abc that belongs to the BLUE WXY. Targets: 13cny more or less
OR Sideways...
I would lean toward the 1st or 3rd possibility
Is Bitcoin Flirting with a Bearish Crab?The rally that took place over the weekend came to a stop at the 2650CNY (400 USD) level, forming a bearish crab with a potential reversal zone (PRZ) between 2640 and 2670 CNY.
While the possibility of yet another higher high can of course not be ruled out, the volatility seen in recent hours (as compared to the price action at the former minor S/R zone between 2430 and 2480 CNY) already suggests that we are in a range where the forces of supply and demand are negotiating the future direction of the Bitcoin price.
Trade Setup
Consider shorting the coin while the price is still near the potential reversal zone with a tight stop at or slightly above 2700 CNY and a potential first target within or near the support zone (~2480 CNY).
Should the price indeed return to the zone marked as "Support", observe the price action and depending on the outcome, consider tightening your stop loss and/or taking a small profit and let the rest of your position run.
What to look out for
A bullish breakout of the current consolidation zone would invalidate the trade.
Should the price on the other hand turn down, observe the price action near (or in) the support zone. An impulsive breakdown of the support zone would confirm the trade.
Likewise a bounce off the support zone followed by a lower high (including a potential retest of the current consolidation zone), would confirm the bearish setup and might offer a low risk opportunity to enter the trade.
Should the price on the other hand return to the PRZ after reacting to support, consider the reversal failed and reduce or close your position.
Happy trading!
NtW
BTCCNY: Profit taken, good trading going onThis is a trade we took with our group.
We went long as depicted in the chart below.
Feel free to contact me if interested, we are always on the lookout for quick and safe profits.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD/BTCCNY: Intermediate term trend signalThis chart presents trend signals for 8 Bitcoin exchanges, using the daily chart.
If price were to move to the entries on chart before the daily close, it'll be a very high probability trade, considering the recent failure to move up, more than once, and the increased volume present on the profile distribution.
Good luck if taking any of these trades, and remember to check out my private group information.
See my twitter page for more info on how to join: ivan_labrie (first tweet).
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
P.S.: The long term outlook won't change unless price moves under 1548 in Okcoin, keep that in mind, so I will be going long in a separate account as well. I'll update the chart after the daily close.
BTCCNY: Monthly uptrend using Okcoin dataIn this chart we can clearly see that the monthly uptrend is intact.
If I include the previous uptrend data into the mix, the time at mode signal gives me room to rise to 11580.73 in 11 months or less.
The stop loss has to be at 1548 for this monthly long, and we have two potential entries, 1921.41 and 1724.11.
I don't think the second one will be filled, and the first one has already been triggered.
I've moved from btcchina to Okcoin data, because of the higher liquidity, and how it seems to dominate the other exchanges, giving more reliable signals. This includes the USD crosses as well. CNY is simply more liquid and thus more suitable for technical analysis.
I'm sharing entries in my group, for short term, intermediate and long term opportunities.
In this case, this would be an example of a long term trade. My favored entry is to keep pending orders ready, and set and forget in this case. These two entries are valid for the next 2 months after the monthly close.
In the intermediate term, I see a possibility for a 1-2 week uptrend but the upside is limited. I'll be trading it with my group though, so if interested do contact me for more information for joining me and my partner for 24/7 BTCCNY futures coverage.
Good luck if taking this potential home run trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Fakeouts, hourly 200 ema, 3rd structure and apex of new triangleAll details at chart.
My sentiment is still bearish/sideways.
Apex of new triangle is about to end soon.
Expecting bigger move soon... ...or boring sideways.
BTCCNY: Short now!BTCCNY has confirmed a daily downtrend signal. We have already entered with our group, but this is a good opportunity to add or join the trend if not in.
Above the stop loss, place a long trade in case it gets invalidated tomorrow during the Futures settlement.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie
Fakeout then Breakdown? Eu BTC terrorists FUD?Details at chart.
Looks like we're going down from triangle with nice fakeout 18th.
If price won't come back above triangle upper trendline soon, targets would be at .618-1 fibo retrace.
If breakdown is not fake, upper triangle trendline should act now like a resistance.
Chart suggesting SHORT sentiment but it can go back up soon or go sideways without any clear trend.
Anyway some FUD about terrorists and BTC is typical short information especially after mini bubble 500$, weak bounces and many sideways days.
Good luck!
BTCCNY: Bitcoin downtrend en forceIn this chart I describe the daily downtrend signal present in the BTCCNY chart.
We aim for 1451.98 in the next 5 days to be precise.
As long as price remains below 2130.92 in the okcoin spot chart., it's highly probable to see this target get hit.
In case we see a retracement before, the level to take heed of is the high volume node at 1550 and the low volume
support on chart.
See the annotations for more information.
We have taken a short entry with my group, around the 2148 mark, and also at 2094.4, using the quarterly futures at okcoin. Trade has made us 100%, so , we have booked half of it already, and are holding a risk free position.
Contact me for information on joining my live trading room. It's aimed at Bitcoin traders who seek to get safe entry and exit points to maximize profits and minimize risk. Contact: skype @ ivanlabrie, PM here or QQ (364658927 / 2954487803). pastebin.com
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Abc now? Finex made a breakout but Okcoin is not.
Expecting correction soon. Targets at trendlines and fibo levels.
100 and 200 hourly EMA following trendlines.
If 5 is top and C will end at trendline around 320$, big HS can be formed (1-5abc as a head)
BTCUSD BEARISH DIVERGENCEIt looks as if bulls have exhausted their run. Price was rejected at the descending daily resistance (pink) and was followed by a retest of our ascending resistance zone, printing a bearish shooting star. A divergence in the RSI can also be observed below this price channel. It is important to note that each top was followed by a 61.8 or 76.4 retracement to the trending support which gives us a conservative estimate of where we may find support in the short term. I have placed a partial exit (76.4%) here. If this level is rejected we can expect a test of the 200MA which was a catalyst for the commencement of the current trend.
This technical estimate can be invalidated by a negative, external economic event which is rather likely at this point as global markets are in flux. Fresh outflows from Chinese equity markets may fill the Bitcoin market which would result in a continuation of the bull trend.
BTCUSD: Tim Westian supply and demand logic and new indicatorHi, in this chart I describe how I read the price action in the Bitcoin chart, in this case the Okcoin futures.
My spot forecast and weekly trade setup is coming along nicely, but there are other shorter term opportunities for the traders with a keen eye for technical analysis.
The new indicator plots inside and outside bars, as well as range expansion, paying homage to the teachings of Mr. Tim West.
Be sure to check out his dozens of educational charts on the subject, his insightful analysis and lessons are a must see for any aspiring trader in my opinion, and his Key Hidden Levels chatroom a great place to be.
Code in related ideas.
Cheers,
Ivan.
A week of sidewalk expected for BitcoinI saw many technical analysis on bitcoin price in tradingview, however, bitcoin market now is totally dominated by some whales from China; speculating their mind would be more productive to short-term trading strategy.
Recently Chinese stock market halted to move up, and Shanghai index is now in range of 4200~4500. Also, industrial or financial news do not give Chinese investor a confidence on further bullish movement. In this circumstance, even whales cannot have confidence on price movement, and they may pause to manipulate market.
I think that lower number of future contract on OKCoin indirectly prove this; average number of opened contract on Monday afternoon - of course in East Asia - usually spanned from 500k to 530k, but just have reached 450k today. If this trend is not changed until tomorrow, this sidewalk will last for a week at least. My sidewalk range is 1455 ~ 1475, and breaching this range for more than a day will be a sign of new movement.
So, now, what we have to do is doing our original or main job and wait for movement.
FUN FAKE FUTURES TRADESMACD and RSI are both overbought let's take it down five bucks over the period of a day and end up completing our triangle at $217 on April 20th.
Double Top + OBV off = correctionDouble Top + OBV off
On top we had a perfect 61.8% retracement after the big dump.
Expecting another big dump to test the big support line.
Overall I don't see a reason to get long until we touch / close above the big red downtrend line.
Trying to short the tops atm.
Good Luck
Bitcoin Supply/Demand LevelsBTC could dip once more to test demand levels @ 1.44 ext. A sustained, summer-long bull-run (C) would be healthy.
Another Big SqueezeWe have spent the last few days bouncing around inside a triangle. The squeeze has begun. Any breach of the 'red zone' would result in a drop and will test the previous support at 205 and maybe 196. If that support holds, I could be stuck in more sideways movement until finally, we have a double bottom at 150. When the floor is reached, it will be a massive bull signal.
Alternately, the squeeze could trigger a breakout that will re-test previous resistance at 230 and maybe 250.
Not sure if we're done going down yet before the next leg upSo i'm expecting minor wave C down from here. I think we've been building a minor wave B flag to the downside here and expect a break lower soon, maybe to retest 210-200 at a push. Lets see, this pump looks weak imo
Possible short term movement to retest 205Over the next week we could see 205 retested. If support at 205 is broken, it could mean a major push down to a double bottom. It is possible that support at 220 will hold again and result in a bullish movement initially to 250 then on to 300.
