Okta Shares Down 6.21% On Q1 Fiscal Year 2025 Financial ResultsOkta ( NASDAQ:OKTA ), the leading independent identity partner, has announced its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025. The company reported a 19% year-over-year increase in Q1 revenue and a 20% year-over-year increase in subscription revenue. The current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) also increased by 15% to $1.949 billion. The company's CEO, Todd McKinnon, stated that the company began the new fiscal year with record non-GAAP profitability and cash flow.
The total revenue for Q1 was $617 million, an increase of 19% year-over-year. Subscription revenue was $603 million, an increase of 20% year-over-year. The RPO, or subscription backlog, was $3.364 billion, an increase of 14% year-over-year. The cRPO, or subscription backlog expected to be recognized over the next 12 months, was $1.949 billion, up 15% compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2024.
GAAP operating loss was $47 million, or 8% of total revenue, compared to a GAAP operating loss of $160 million, or (31)% of total revenue, in the first quarter of fiscal 2024. Non-GAAP operating income was $133 million, or 22% of total revenue, compared to a non-GAAP operating income of $37 million, or 7% of total revenue, in the first quarter of fiscal 2024.
GAAP net loss was $40 million, compared to a GAAP net loss of $119 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2024. Non-GAAP net income was $117 million, compared to a non-GAAP net income of $38 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2024. Net cash provided by operations was $219 million, or 36% of total revenue, compared to net cash provided by operations of $129 million, or 25% of total revenue, in the first quarter of fiscal 2024. Free cash flow was $214 million, or 35% of total revenue, compared to $124 million, or 24% of total revenue, in the first quarter of fiscal 2024.
The company's financial outlook for Q2 is expected to be stable but challenging, with growth rates of 13% to 14% year-over-year. For the full year, the company expects total revenue of $2.530 billion to $2.540 billion, with non-GAAP operating income of $490 million to $500 million, a non-GAAP operating margin of 19% to 20%, and a non-GAAP free cash flow margin of approximately 22%.
Technical Outlook
Okta shares is down 6.78% as of the time of writing trading with a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 30.61 which is currently oversold. Due to the "Golden Cross Pattern" on the 11th of January, NASDAQ:OKTA shares surge to local monthly highs. The daily price chart depicts a long "Bearish Harami" candle stick pattern.
OKTA
Okta Surges on Stellar Earnings: Riding the Cloud Identity WaveOkta Inc. ( NASDAQ:OKTA ) catapulted 28% in after-hours trading following its impressive quarterly performance, surpassing analyst estimates and raising its full-year sales forecast. The cloud identity software company's robust growth, fueled by a surge in larger enterprise customers, underscores its pivotal role in modernizing identity infrastructure and simplifying organizational processes.
For the fiscal fourth quarter, Okta ( NASDAQ:OKTA ) reported a remarkable 19% revenue increase year-over-year, soaring to $605 million, outpacing analysts' expectations by a substantial margin. Adjusted earnings of 63 cents per share further solidified its position as a market leader, surpassing the consensus of 51 cents per share. Notably, Okta( NASDAQ:OKTA ) added 120 customers in the quarter with a minimum annual contract value of $100,000, reflecting strong demand and expanding market reach.
"We’re pleased with the strong top-line performance, driven by strength with large customers. Organizations continue to turn to Okta to help modernize and simplify their identity infrastructure," stated the company in its earnings report, highlighting the growing reliance on its solutions among enterprises seeking enhanced security and efficiency.
Looking ahead, Okta ( NASDAQ:OKTA ) provided an upbeat outlook, projecting current-quarter revenue between $603 million and $605 million, surpassing analyst estimates and indicating sustained momentum in its business operations. Additionally, the company raised its full-year revenue forecast to a range of $2.495 billion to $2.505 billion, demonstrating confidence in its ability to capitalize on market opportunities and drive sustained growth.
The impressive earnings report also signifies Okta's resilience in the face of challenges, notably a significant security breach last year. Despite this setback, the company's financial performance remains robust, indicating its ability to navigate adversity and emerge stronger.
Analyzing Okta's ( NASDAQ:OKTA ) share price on the weekly chart reveals a notable breakout amid earnings-driven momentum. However, potential overhead resistance zones at $108 and $145 merit close monitoring, representing key areas where the stock may encounter selling pressure based on historical price action.
As Okta ( NASDAQ:OKTA ) shares surged to $107.61 in after-hours trading, investors are buoyed by the company's stellar performance and optimistic outlook. With its strategic positioning in the rapidly evolving cloud identity market and a strong foundation of enterprise customers, Okta is poised to sustain its growth trajectory and redefine the future of identity management in the digital era.
♨ Nvidia stocks are heading Up to recover, after September meltNvidia stocks moved higher in early Monday trading after analysts at Goldman Sachs NYSE:GS added the chipmaker, along with three other stocks, to its flagship list of stock recommendations.
Goldman Sachs analysts added Nvidia to the bank's "Americas Conviction List", a step up from the 'buy' rating it assigned to the stock in late August, while holding its price target in place at $605 per share.
"Look for Nvidia to maintain its statues as the accelerated computing industry standard for the foreseeable futures given its competitive moat and the urgency with which customers are developing and deploying increasingly complex AI models," Goldman argued.
The bank also added cybersecurity group Okta NASDAQ:OKTA , industrial supply group Cintas NASDAQ:CTAS and biotech Quanterix NASDAQ:QTRX to the "conviction buy" list while removing Salesforce NYSE:CRM and Johnson Controls NYSE:JCI .
Nvidia, the world's biggest AI chipmaker, forecast current quarter revenues of around $16 billion in August when it published stronger-than-expected second quarter earnings and later unveiled an make it easier for clients to run AI applications on Google Cloud NASDAQ:GOOGL using Nvidia-made chips with deeper integration between hardware and software offerings.
"We’re at an inflection point where accelerated computing and generative AI have come together to speed innovation at an unprecedented pace," said CEO Jensen Huang of the Google agreement. "Our expanded collaboration with Google Cloud will help developers accelerate their work with infrastructure, software and services that supercharge energy efficiency and reduce costs."
Nvidia shares were marked 3% higher in early Monday trading to change hands at $ 448 /share. The stock is up more than 200% for this year, and reached an all-time high of $487.84 on Aug 29, 2023.
Technical picture says, Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA stocks are still on its positive path, and trading above 6- and 12-months simple moving averages.
Moreover the key breakout of technical indicator known as "a Triangle" is happening right here as stocks are recovering form the bearish hug.
OKTA - 2x Potential OKTA has been in a tight range for a long time.
Got rejected many times at 92 level.
If this breaks and holds above 92 level, go long.
Long above 92
Stop loss - 80
Target #1 120 (30%)
Target #2 184 (96%)
and after some pullback
Target #3 220 (135%)
Above 130, this doesn't have much resistance until 220.
OKTA Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold OKTA when Losses Exceeding Expectations:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of OKTA prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 72usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-9-1,
for a premium of approximately $4.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
OKTA - Small Rise Before The FallOKTA - had a bad crash due to bad year-over-year earnings report despite crushing expectations.
Wave count suggests it was due, expanded flat setup, even with a good earnings report, very likely it would've rejected the 93.50 mark on the first attempt.
We're looking for a strong pullback followed by a lot more down-turn, towards the 1.272 expanded flat range of $60-$58 a share. VERY BULLISH AFTER THIS.
Okta to break higher?OKTA - 30d - We look to Buy a break of 88.08 (stop at 80.89)
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
Daily signals are bullish.
A break of the recent high at 87.88 should result in a further move higher.
Our outlook is bullish.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
Our profit targets will be 105.48 and 108.48
Resistance: 82.50 / 86.50 / 87.90
Support: 79.50 / 76.00 / 74.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
OKTA looking for higher levels.OKTA - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 88.08 (stop at 80.89)
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
Daily signals are bullish.
A break of the recent high at 87.88 should result in a further move higher.
Our outlook is bullish.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
Our profit targets will be 105.48 and 108.48
Resistance: 78.00 / 82.50 / 86.50
Support: 73.30 / 70.00 / 65.50
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Resistance Analysis in Bottoming Stocks: IDXX, OKTAResistance Analysis in Bottoming Stocks: Looking Ahead to Q1 2023 Earnings
Stocks that are slowly crawling their way out of the correction of 2022 are now moving up to challenge the more difficult resistance levels from the intermediate-term downtrend. These resistance levels are sideways trends that developed during the downtrend of 2022 to the bottom low.
Most stocks that are showing improvement quarter over quarter have completed bottoms, such as IDXX.
Those that do not, such as OKTA, are often stocks that had anomalies in their revenue/earnings growth during the pandemic due to stimulus checks artificially inflating their sales to the point there was no possible way that the company could maintain such high revenues that were way off the normal growth levels annually.
IDXX has been trending up out of a bottom with sideways trends 2 times now. This is best seen on a weekly or 4 day chart. The stock has not reached the next strong resistance level yet but is probably going there during the next month as it reports in early May. If it continues sideways during the month of April, then the report is not likely to show a significant improvement over the financial data from last quarter.
The All-Time High will be Very Strong Resistance as it occurred at the peak of the pandemic's speculative gains.
The Moderate Resistance is one tier down from the top's all-time high. It can be more easily overcome as it is not a longer sideways trend and there was no sideways trend at that level on the way up to the top in the final months of 2021.
The Strong Resistance lowest red line is stronger because of the sideways trend from 2020 - 2021 and the sideways trend during the 2022 downtrend.
OKTA has an entirely different trend moving upward. The stock has not completed the bottom and first resistance level to complete the bottom is Very Strong Resistance. The next tier up is Moderate Resistance. The next Very Strong Resistance is the rounding top highs of 2021.
Okta posed to break higher?OKTA - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 88.08 (stop at 80.89)
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
Daily signals are bullish.
A break of the recent high at 87.88 should result in a further move higher.
Our outlook is bullish.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
Our profit targets will be 105.48 and 108.48
Resistance: 87.88 / 90.00 / 94.00
Support: 80.00 / 77.51 / 74.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Okta in a flag?OKTA - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 74.31 (stop at 68.78)
Short term bias has turned negative.
A break of the recent high at 74.31 should result in a further move higher.
Short term momentum is bullish.
Price action looks to be forming a bullish flag/pennant.
The bias is to break to the upside.
Our profit targets will be 86.96 and 87.96
Resistance: 74.18 / 78.00 / 87.50
Support: 66.00 / 62.40 / 60.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
15 Companies that have organic growth of financial resultsIt is good options to buy when the market is at the bottom (we think it is summer 2023, you can see our macro scenario here )
Type: growth stock
1. Okta – operates in the Identity Management market (identification protocols). It sells its products to individual companies and as part of integration with the other industry leaders (Zscaler). Organic growth is expected due to a low penetration of Identity Management in corporate environment (20% now). The market could reach the value of 70 bln, according to McKinsey. We anticipate revenue to expand by ~30% over the next few years.
Downside: 1) The company regularly dilutes equity to finance R&D and marketing.
Upside 1) Has a positive EBITDA margin, will have a positive FCF as soon as 2024.
2. Twilio – operates in the CPaaS market. The valuation already reflects negative expectations from the slowdown of the CPaaS market amid shrinking advertising budgets (weak consumer). We expect revenue to expand by 25%+ over the next few years, which is also reflected in the company’s long-term valuation.
Downside: 1) The company regularly dilutes equity to finance R&D and marketing. The emergence of various solutions in the market that are powered by GPT-3 (a neural network), which generates human-like responses based on the learning of the target audience. These solutions are less costly for companies; however, major companies aren’t bent on integrating it just yet. I believe that Twilio could integrate it in its own product, as GPT-3 has an open source code.
Upside 1) Has a positive EBITDA margin, will have a positive FCF as soon as 2024.
3. Zscaler. The company operates in the narrowly specialized SSE market. Industry leader. Organic growth is expected due to the current low penetration in corporate solutions (around 3%). We anticipate the company will practically double its cash flow every year over the next 2 years + it’s profitable
4. Paypal. In the third quarter PayPal demonstrated again that the company’s strategy is bearing fruit even as the global economy is slowing down.
The multipronged development of PayPal’s services remains key for its organic growth. What used to be a fairly narrow-focused service to pay for goods and services is adding ever more new functions: PayPal continues to cooperate with Apple and is expanding the opportunities for contactless payment, while also working to increase engagement with the audience through the Braintree payment system. Therefore, even in the middle of an unfavorable macroeconomic environment and faced with declining consumption in the cyclical sectors, the company is seizing ever more market share.
Upside: the management plans to boost operating margin by about 100 bps next year by developing infrastructure and reducing transaction costs.
5. Tesla. Tesla publishes fairly strong reports: Revenue and operating profit grow by 50-60% y/y. unlike other players, Tesla also improves its business margins.
When China ends lockdowns, the issue of downtime at Tesla’s Chinese plant, its largest, will go away. Also, as soon as this quarter (the fourth quarter) Tesla will share access to its FSD and release it to the mass market.
In general, the company is feeling well. Its stock price has fallen ahead of the market amid Musk’s purchase of Twitter and the current perturbations at Twitter. Also. Musk sold some of his Tesla shares to fund the purchase of Twitter. Musk’s current share is ~13%.
Type: cyclical stocks
1. Livent. The company is moving ahead in line with our forecast. The company has several growth projects that start as soon as 1Q 2023, and also in 4Q 2023. They will add 100% of lithium carbonate production. Lithium prices, give or take, are set to remain near their current levels as demand from the EV industry continues to be strong (even as consumption is low, the market cannibalizes ICE models).
Downside: 1) Poor reporting on sales volumes. Chemicals prices continue to hold high. If lithium prices turn around, that will erase the margin.
Upside: 1) The company operates with a high gross margin. Its costs are $7,000 per 1 ton of production while the price now is about 80,000 a ton.
2. Darling. The company has piled up a lot of cash on the balance sheet. It now uses it for strategic precision purchases, which fuel its growth. + 30% of EBITDA comes from DGD, the growth of operating metrics will largely happen in 2023, so by 2024 operating metrics will rise by 50%. The stock took a lot of hammering as Biden seeks to revise the 17-year-old EPA and shift the program toward biogases. EBITDA will get a strong boost due to declining agricultural commodities prices.
Downside: 1) Margin is tamped down because of the acquisition spending (temporary impact) + agricultural commodities prices could hold above our expectations, which means EBITDA wouldn’t get as much of a boost
Upside 1) core business is stable
3. Crocs. the company grows fast in terms of operating metrics (physical shipments of footwear of its own brand and HeyDude), and has been able to switch to air freight delivery, which has been immediately reflected in EBITDA, as was expected. Crocs is now laser focused to consolidate the Asian rubber footwear market, as it regards it as the main and priority market.
Downside: 1) High debt, which was taken out to buy HeyDude. However, they are paying it back as they are successfully integrating HeyDude in its organic structure.
Upside 1) They are able to pass a high share of costs on to the consumer (high gross margin). The average selling price of footwear is $25, while production costs are $10. The brand name is actively working for the company, advertising costs aren’t rising too much (the collaboration with stars that have audiences of millions of people does its part + go on advertising: let’s say, when you see a celebrity wearing Crocs out in the street, rather than on your phone screen, you want them, too.
4. Pinterest. In the third quarter Pinterest showed a net increase of monthly active users for the first time this year. It totaled 445 million people: 95 mln in the US and Canada and 350 mln in other regions.
Although the digital advertising market has taken a heavy blow in 2022 as economy slowed down and advertising budgets were downsized, Pinterest continues to show a stable growth of average revenue per user: The total ARPU reached $1.54 (+8.16% y/y) in 3Q, compared with our forecast for $1.59.
5. Ulta. As of now, organic growth is possible only through opening mini outlets at Target stores. The beauty industry, including Ulta, isn’t falling that much as the company/industry get the bulk of their revenue from beauty enthusiasts (who use cosmetics no matter what, even expensive ones). + the company continues to show a high pace of LFL sales growth due to foot traffic and the average ticket. For two straight quarters now, the company has beaten analyst expectations, but not ours for EPS, due to an increased efficiency of inventory accounting/arrangement of products per 1 square meter (essentially, every inch is used for commercial purposes).
6. Netflix. The business is essentially mature. What could breathe life into it is a strategy to acquire users in low-income markets + add-supported subscription.
7. Transocean. For a few straight quarters now, RIG has showed it’s getting new contracts, including long-term ones, at elevated prices. As long as the trend continues, we expect the company’s gross margin to expand because RIG, when it concludes contracts, includes the future growth of costs in the contract value. All the contracts have fixed revenue, rather than adjustable one, so that’s why. With oil price at $70+ and given underinvestment in the industry, RIG is sure to have demand for its ships.
Type: Chinese, Taiwanese stocks
1. TSMC. TSMC shows a stable growth of financial results and growing business margins. TSMC, in effect, has a monopolistic position in the market, with major companies in the US and China relying on its products.
If China seeks to maintain economic growth and improve the well-being of its citizens, then most likely nothing will happen to Taiwan before 2024 (the year of presidential elections in Taiwan). Therefore, 2023 will be a year of continued growth for TSMC, even amid a global recession.
2. Li Auto. Li Auto shares have been dumped amid the decline of its gross margin as demand skewed toward the more expensive EV. That’s the most expensive EV made in China and the strong demand for it demonstrates that the company’s revenue will continue to rise.
Li Auto is in the middle of an investment phase now, being busy boosting its R&D in EV software and various components in order to achieve a greater vertical integration. The company continues to expand in terms of capacity, dealerships, and invest in its autopilot.
The company holds substantial promise, just like Tesla. What’s more, Li Auto is on the party list as the third-largest EV producer.
3. Baidu. If China relaxes its lockdowns, Baidu’s core business – advertising – will gain pace, with revenue and operating revenue getting a boost. Baidu actively invests in its proprietary systems for AI-powered driving and digitalization of industrial businesses and state-owned companies. In 2024 Baidu is set to start manufacturing EVs jointly with Jidu.
OKTA: Oversold?OKTA
Short Term - We look to Buy at 73.79 (stop at 59.02)
The medium term bias remains bearish. Trading close to the psychological 72.00 level. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. A higher correction is expected. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher.
Our profit targets will be 109.67 and 120.00
Resistance: 110.00 / 139.00 / 200.00
Support: 72.00 / 50.00 / 30.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
OKTA- BULLISH SCENARIOHuge volatility for OKTA
Yesterday the price closed with almost 11% gain for the session and added 18% more in the after-hours session after the release of the earnings report.
The next major resistance is located between $ 116 and 122. If the breakout of the 2nd resistance is successful the price will be pushed to 0.382 Fibo level or $ 150
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
OKTA Falling Wedge and Losses Exceeding ExpectationsOKTA is bearish from both fundamental and technical perspectives.
The falling wedge has a price target of $140 before a bounce and the company said billings rose 91% to $603 million vs. estimates of $497 million.
Since the earnings are negative, 266Mil in 2021 and the Market Cap is high, 28.418Bil, OKTA is still a growth stock from which investors have high expectations.
When investors see weaker forecasts or expenses increase, on rising interest rates, they are tempted to sell.
In this case, my price target is the $140 support.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.