The Super Bullish Gold Bullion :) :) :)Back on Aug 30, we had indicated that Gold is turning to Bullish mode and 1st target is 2280. Today Gold made a new ATH of 2265 - just kissing distance from 1st Target
Have a look at the monthly chart. Look at the Volume Build up over the past 3-4 years. Cup and Handle BO also confirmed on Monthly
Next targets are 2280, 2550, 3015
Over the weekend, Gold price shot up over Rs. 100 / gm in India, This is not going to be the end. This is just the beginning.
Also remember, Market is making new ATH, Gold is making new ATH. How ??? All these years, Gold and Market had Inverse proportion. When market crashes, Gold rises and vice-versa, but is it still the truth ???
This is the time to let go of Old-school thought process and accept the changing reality. With the introduction of Crypto market the Relationship between Gold and Equity Market was long broken. So, give up your bias and learn to ride the tide irrespective of its side
Disclaimer:
3+ Years Teaching Experience in Stock Market - Technical Analysis, Advanced Patterns, Emotional Management, News based Trading...
We are NOT SEBI Registered and Our focus is NOT providing Buy/Sell Recommendations/calls. Primary Objective is to provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi-timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes.
We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide irrespective of its Side"
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Oldschoolpatterns
MACRO MONDAY 5 - Major Market Index XMINYSE Arca Major Market Index - TVC:XMI
The XMI Index is a chart that gets overlooked by many but it is still monitored by OG legacy traders. I recently came across the XMI being utilized by Sentiment Trader in one of their reports, considering that Sentiment Trader provide some of the best metrics in the business, their coverage of the XMI peaked my interest.
The XMI is a price weighted index consisting of 20 blue chip U.S Industrial Stocks, 17 of which are also in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Within the index there is surprising blend of stocks that include transport, travel, food, pharma, energy and technology. A breakdown of its components can be found at this Trading View link (Will be added to comments below).
The Chart
The long term pattern on the chart is very obviously a rising wedge pattern which presents diagonal resistance above and below. We are currently 7% away from the top diagonal resistance line so this will be an important level in coming weeks and doesn’t leave a lot of room overhead. God forbid if we ever breach the base line of the large wedge.
In the past a 200 week SMA re-test and flattening has predated recessionary/capitulation price action. If we come close to the 200 week SMA again we should be preparing ourselves for that potential outcome.
The XMI made lower highs from Jan 1999 - Sept 2000 providing an advanced 9 month warning of the follow up recession/capitulation price action that initiated from Sept 2000 onwards on the S&P 500. The XMI made lower highs as the EIGHTCAP:SPX500 made higher highs over the 9 month period. The XMI did not provide a similar advance warning for the 2008 Great Recession however, it did make a lower high, which is something we else we can look out for as a weaker warning signal. This is not a concern at present as the XMI has just broke up into new highs.
Its interesting to see how the XMI gave a significant 9 month advance warning of the 2000 Recession but was not as clear cut at providing an advance warning of the 2008 Great Recession. Conversely, the SPDR Homebuilders ETF ( AMEX:XHB ) which we covered in Macro Monday 3 provided an advance warning of the 2008 Great Recession, however was not as clear cut at providing an advance warning of the 2000 Recession. This is because the 2008 Great Recession was mainly a result of high risk mortgage lending which lead to a housing market collapse, whilst the 2000 recession was a tech led crash and general economic slowdown invoked by the Federal reserve who had been increasing rates to quell an overvalued bubbling tech stock market.
We will need to pay separate attention to these individual index charts as we move forward for clues and warnings as we do not know what market or chart will provide us with that ultimate advance warning. In March 2020 it was the Dow Transportation Index DJ:DJT (Macro Monday 1), in 2007 it was the Homebuilders XHB (Macro Monday 3) and in 2000 it was the Major Market Index XMI (See Chart).
MACRO MONDAY 1 - DJT
MACRO MONDAY 3 - XHB
It is worth noting that the current yield curve inversion on the 2/10 year Treasury Spread provided advance warning of recession/capitulation prior to all of the above events 2000, 2007 & 2020 however it provided us a wide 6 - 22 month window of time from the time the yield curve made its first definitive turn back up to the 0% level (See Macro Monday 2). We are 5 months into that 6 – 22 month window and thus closing in on dangerous territory, however the DJT, XHB and XMI charts remain very positive suggesting a longer time horizon is likely on the cards. I hope with the addition of DJT, XHB and XMI we are providing you with additional warning/timing indicators allowing us to hone in on a more specific timeframe, making us better informed and more nimble market participants.
MACRO MONDAY 2 - 2/10 year Treasury Spread
As we continue with Macro Mondays we will continue to cover these and similar leading charts and indicators. At present the yield curve inversion suggests recession is only a matter of time however the DJT, XHB and XMI charts do not have clear warning signals presenting, but when and if they do, we will be able to recognize these signals and position accordingly. Into the 6 – 22 month danger window we go. No guarantees, just probable outcomes.
Stay nimble folks
PUKA
SLV OutlookJust a look at where it's been, and where it can go based on where it's been.
Entering one of the oldest seasons we have; realization and dependence on basic things like service and what we use the most. Typically, materials like rocks bring value, cause governments and government made cash doesn't. This season will be different than all others.
What has held value the most through all of known time?
Beliefs and opinions.
So be aware of what beliefs and opinions others hold, and have held through all of time. Who knows, someone else is likely to be more convicted of their beliefs than you , and to such an extent to commit their life to it.
Might be good to know what their beliefs are based on, regardless if you agree or not.
EURO LONGKeeping it simple on this long here - targeting 1.12 or higher - I am expecting some dollar weakness short term here and EURO going higher - lots of news this week going to rock the markets.
I like the bullish divergence between 3 and 5 - along with the ascending trend line that started when the euro bottomed in Oct 2019 - I see no reason why I should not risk capital on this long trade.
RLCBTC x2 in next 2 monthsLooking at RLCBTC pair is not the first time for us. For many, this coin made a lot of dissapointment in price moving for last few months. But That only means it looks even more promising to us. I am going to grab this great opportunity to make 200% profit on investment in next 2 months.
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