OLED beat EPS and Rev estimates by large.Good momentum is created by the Earnings positive surprise and the fact that OLED has increased its dividend by 16.7%.
Gross Margin of 78% and Net Margin of 34% on double-digit revenue growth speak loud of a possible higher valuation estimated by analysts.
Adjust your size accordingly. #notfinancialadvise
OLED
OLED looks overbought again, time for snapback?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on June 3, 2022 with a closing price of 124.42.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 123.68 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.843% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.8475% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 12.939499999999999% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 5.0 trading bars; half occur within 16.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 31.5 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Strong Fundamentals on LG Display going into 2022The fundamentals of LG Display are strong going into 2022. The growing Metaverse trend with virtual reality is opening a new source of revenue for OLED Panels. Electric Vehicle producers like GM are also choosing LGD to provide high-quality pOLED and OLED displays for their new Electric Fleet. It's crazy that LGD is priced like a growth stock given how booming the Display market is projected to be. Currently, LGD is also trading at a 5 P/E ratio and 1.68 eps.
OLED - Earnings Beat Follow UpThis is a pretty simple chart - Below 190 and we’ll see 160, but above 205 and we’ll see 217 and then 228. With the 20 million revenue beat and 60%+ surprise on EPS, I’m thinking we see ATH’s with a market recovery. Be careful with the election, but this is a safer bet in a sea of risk if you ask me!! Another one of the stocks winning from this Covid-19 push towards at-home living focus.
OLED's Major Long Potential
Easily in my Top5 picks right now, right next to AMD. Beautiful technicals for the past couple years, but especially at the present time. This stock could be trading at 300+ mid next year if the markets don't fail within that timeframe.
I've known this company for many years never knowing that she's trading on the US stock market (thanks for the tip-off @HHSPN). This company will soon be Apple's main OLED display manufacturer after Samsung. And considering the rumors about Apple's All-OLED displays for next year's complete iPhone and iPad line-up, this is going to be an incredible long-term investment.
Zoom out to see the stock's successful breaking out of a 20y old 'Rising Channel'.
I have found 0 (zero) technical mistakes in the stock's current performance. The rule-of-thumb (as shown purple) calculates the valley-to-peak performance, giving the stock an additional value potential of +130% from the point of breakout (around 160). Note that we're not talking about the rising channel breakout, but the following intermediate formation, which usually decides if the stock can continue or reverse.
Safety First:
Below 158 is "heads-up". Stay neutral and hope that it won't go under 143.55 which could send the stock back into the channel. Extremely unlikely at this point.
Entry Point:
Technically the stock wants to go trade sub 170. All you have to really look for is this month's PSAR point. Look how the October candle only touched the point and reversed, closing a positive candle – that's a sign for huge support. The stock is somewhat likely to just turn around at 180 and blast up through the roof from there. If the point breaks at about 169.60, the stock could try to venture further down losing another 10 points. But as long as its above 158.00 the stock is a strong-buy. At any point in time below line 'x': if the stock returns above 'x' = rally starts.
I will be updating this post continuously below.
(trend-lines have been averaged on step-line over log for higher precision)
Filling the gap! Short trade on OLEDExpecting the chart to fill the gap to about $180.
Entered the trade when the price was about $196 . Did a bear put spread (Buying the 200 Dec put option and selling the 180 Dec put spread) .
Weekly and Daily pointing to further downside. MACD heading down. $180 is the next support.
STM to rebound with new iphone?STM has been beaten down as Apple supplier for ASIC chips and new iphone release this fall should jump start this.
It's down 27% from high and await good entry.
Viewers come to own opine. The Cboe VIX which started to uptick yesterday from 10-11 to 14. Trade war with
China as another factor.
COHERENT: The Nested "Mega" Cup Breakout - 2018 PT: $415So, I tried doing as much research into what a backwards Cup & Handle pattern is, or if such a thing is actually a "thing" and just gave up. If anyone has any insight or experience with them, I would love to hear it and learn please.
I believe the tariff and trade war narratives are artifically overblown. There is no way two super powers are genuinely going to break the global economy rather than find a way to profit off the volatility and enrich those who've positioned themselves strategically. Demand isn't going to diminish, people will pay for COHR's products globally. The first cup will fill in back to a comfortable $220 level that rides along the yellow, long-term baseline. Momentum from the cup filling back in will spark money to pour back in around September, right when most of the tariff news should have run its course and been sorted. This money will rally the stock up towards the $280-300 range (Golden Cross in play at this point?) and news of the next iPhone and other products coming for Holiday 2018 from other companies will have dropped.
Seeing the epic rally back up will fill the Mega Cup and once the stock has retraced back up to $320 around November, the moon shot rally upwards towards $400 will take off. Volatility will no doubt be in play from midterms, so people seeking a safe, grounded, albeit "expensive" trade may consider entering at this point. If sentiment after the midterms is high for economic expansion both domestically and globally, I don't see $400 being out of the question if the volume is there. Banks and financials will have had to recover some, the third rate hike should have taken place, commodities index should have recovered and emerging markets should no longer be suffocating, so that they can also participate in the global growth story and contribute to the 2H18 cycle. It sounds like a lot, but the windows are all there and slowly moving towards each other to line up. If COHR was being manipulated for a "perfect" trade, then this may well be where it was designed to go.
(ADDITIONAL NOTES)
COHR was flying last year, in part because of the OLED ramp up, but the Rofin acquisition was also in play. Coherent is a well diversified, educated and disciplined company. Earlier this year, the drama/rumors of the iPhone X being a failure began to spread and tank both Apple stock and perceived OLED demand. Both OLED and COHR got slammed relentlessly. Price dropped under $240 and expected to slow down. Resistance was found around $210, but it took another dive, as it is not regularly followed. I don't believe it has a lot of exposure through ETFs and other index funds either. Stocks with less exposure and coverage aren't "cool" or "fun" to watch, let alone invest in. Without any real coverage or news from Coherent themselves, the stock went into another free fall into levels not seen since the end of 2016. The stock carries a "BUY" recommendation across the board.
1) "...Apple is planning to get LG as its second OLED supplier for its OLED screens and will initially deliver between 2 and 4 million units....Related sources claim that LG Display wants to take a bigger cut, but it's not ready to meet the full demand for OLED panels."
2) "In October 2017 Japan Display has decided to halt its plans to turn its minority stake at JOLED into a majority one, and so JOLED started to seek external financing to support its plan to start mass producing OLEDs in 2019 at the JDI plant in Nomi, Ishikawa."
3) "...(China) also approved...a $2.3 billion joint venture organic light-emitting diode (OLED) plant to be built by South Korea's LG Display Co Ltd (LPL)."
OLED isn't just phones or TVs. It's also automobiles (CES made that very clear) wearables and displays on just about anything. Micro-LEDs will eventually come and COHR is aware and ready. I firmly believe there is going to be at least one more, powerful OLED ramp up to prep for 2019/2020 production rates.
VECO: A 2019 Play w/ Short Term Technicals for PT of $21.60The Veeco story is not a happy one over a lifetime analysis. However, it is still one of the major players in display, including OLED and has recently had a string of positive momentum related news. Their earnings calls are ripe with hints at a strong play going into 2019, but this year they should be seen as a short term, technical trade that can ride strong waves upward.
Based on historic ranges within the stock, some short and mid term fibonacci levels, and some strong demand for OLED in 2018, VECO is trading within a sustained channel during this year of volatility. It can easily come back to its lower end of trend trading and we know how stocks behave as they cross Fib lines. Before the tariffs and Syria news hit, this stock was on a mission to cross the $21 range. Now, with it being knocked down, it's good for a few short term gains that can be stacked for other ideas.
The market is finally stabilizing some and hopefully Syria become a neutral issue as earnings season starts up. Moving into the Summer, I feel this is a sure trade for the company, as it's not a bad story and any news is good news for Veeco. It can ride sector momentum up at any time as well and reach even $22. Don't be greedy and take what you want after crossing $21.
GNTX: A Leader, Stable & Resilient Smart Car Play; AMAT Alt IdeaDuring CES 2018, I was on a mission to hunt down companies that exuded a sense of advancement, foresight and trend setting. Gentex was one such company that I'd never heard of, but given their gorgeous expo display, helpful reps, consistent crowds and the shiny Land Rover sitting idly by, I had to investigate. They are an absolute market leader in rear view mirror tech and other sensor/camera/material plays that integrate into the Smart Car sector. Gentex is NOT a company you trade, nor really pay attention to unless you're an institutional player in the sector. Trend lines show steady growth with a nice, higher trend coming out of 2017 that has held for the most part in 2018, but it doesn't really matter. GNTX is a stud that I find recommending if people are fans of AMAT because of the stable, consistent trends. It won't breakout without some outstanding news, but it also won't drop hard during a period of volatility.
GNTX has an amazing market position, solid financials, competent leadership, lucrative R&D and powerful partnerships moving forward. Not a lot of coverage can be found for it, but anyone taking a peek has come to the same, humble, steady conclusion. GNTX is a good money hideout and long, LONG term investment as the Smart Car sector plays out. Excessive fragmentation and regulation is crippling the data portion of it, but GNTX is participating in a more tangible and familiar area.
OLED Long IdeaI like the fundamentals on OLED in that you will start seeing more and more OLED displays. This stock dropped because Apple said it wouldn't use OLED in their low cost version phones. There is a lot more than Apple out there for revenue. Earnings is coming up, I expect an upside surprise, but be aware it could go against the stock. With the 61.8% complete and the market looking ready to move higher, I am buying into this position here.
OLED Holding Key Support OLED holding key support here during a weak day for the market, even in light of AAPL's earnings reaction.
Showing Daily chart with demand picking up at a key level. 30 Minute chart showing next levels to test. 5 minute Heiken Ashi chart used for tactical entry, helps weed out the noise and better determine short term trends.
Best strategy with OLED right now seems to be options. Looking out to Feb 16 Calls at the 160 or 165 strikes with an initial target for exiting at $170. Anything "closing" break under $155 on the Daily negates this thesis.
Well defined risk levels right now, worth entry or keeping on watch until it meets your personal requirements.
OLED, trade ideaI keep looking at OLED, because I want to own it for the long run. Short term, it looks weak and could drop further. Stocks tend to, but not always fill gaps. So when a stock opens a lot higher from the previous day close it forms a gap. Eventually the prices come back to close the gap. See the chart. Now, notice the big gap on OLED. I'll look to buy it at $91. I see it going much higher eventually based on the technology. I want to get in this technology.