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Omicron

Officer Omicron and Insurgent Inflation Team Up To Fight the FedScene 1 Darth Powell summons the legends of the past to formulate the plan to fight the Omicron and Inflation insurgence. Brigadier Bernanke, General Greenspan and Veteran Volcker report for duty. “We are at an event horizon, what should we do?” declares Powell. “Pretend it isn’t happening”, says Greenspan “Bailout everything, print more money,” says Bernanke “I killed inflation forever, this cannot be happening,” says Volcker Powell rises from his throne and addresses the senate. "There is nothing to see here. We will continue as normal, and start to cool off our insurgent inflation with the ice bath of interest rates, and the tepid taste of tapering." In the background the sound of screaming. Cut Scene 1. Scene 2. The morning after a sweet night of passion, Omicron and Inflation wake up with a hangover and get to work on terrorizing the economy. Officer Omicron has already infected 30% of the planet and inflation is rampant. Cut Scene 2. Well, that was exciting, but if the global economy was a star wars movie, it would be something like this. A big gap down today, and the short-term outlook is definitely to the downside, with limited room for stimulus, and unlimited room for inflation, virus infections, and lockdowns. Short-term RSI – Nasty KST – Nasty AD Ratio - ouch Choose Your Ending Scene 3. After two hard years the people of Naboo (earth) are battered yet determined to summon the force to fight whatever stands in their way. It will be tough, but we will beat nature and fight to live another day. 15% to 20% drop in equities, a collapse in crypto, followed by a green revolution where we live in ESG harmony. Scene 4. Mother natures death star finally scourges us to hell causing the next great depression, which takes an entire generation to recover from. (Like the 2000 dotcom bust 8-year recovery) Scene 5. Darth Powell farts, and the world goes on as normal 😊 Cast your vote now. Scene 3, 4, or 5. If you like, then hit like. Barry
SP:SPXShort
by liberatedstocktrader
4
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 4 UpdateAt the start of the year, it was clear that the Omicron wave (Wave 4) started, as heads up by the previous post. Wave 4 is ON now. In the coming weeks, it starts slow, but will accelerate faster and faster, into March and April 2022 In the last two months, we can see that the infection rate escalated after the turn into February. Depicted by the white and yellow line gradients marked under the MACD Signal line. No deceleration is observed yet... so expect at least a week or two before we see some levelling off (hopefully). Given the current measures, and population attitudes, I honestly do not yet see this abating soon... will check in again in a couple of weeks if there is any developments. #marapr2022
C
by Auguraltrader
IS THIS THE BOTTOM FOR BITCOIN???Well would you look at that, a Bitcoin analysis. Opting for the Higher time frames here, from the chart above we have 4 trendlines, all of which have played significant roles in bitcoin achieveing it's current price action. Looking at the trendline that initiated the bounce on November in the year 2011, bitcoin has found itself at the trendline once again after a tiresome year of sideways movement. You could say this is the bottom. Now in march year 2020, a sell-off came about due to the news of Covid-19 which was a life event that threw technical analysis out the window and saw us create a new trend support. Prior to that, Bitcoin took a bounce off the first trend support shown in the chart and went up all the way to our current trend resistance to make a local top of 13.9k before initiating the covid sell-off event, a move which spanned 9months(274days) from local top to global bottom and still managed to close the month just above our Nov. '11 trend support. (Which means it is a strong area of support) Right now, bitcoin once again has hit that same resistance where the local top was made, and is at the trend support from which the sell off eventually closed its candle but is also on the 9th month of the move (but 275 days instead). Should this monthly candle close without making a sell-off to the covid trendline, i can confidently say this is the bottom and that we would see new highs including a cycle top this year by at least Q2. But becareful, some alts still havent reached support, so it is possible that this isn't the bottom. If you agree with this idea, pls make sure to like and leave your thoughts in the comments section. As always, feedback is appreciated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RektMyMom
EURJPY At Critical Sell Level! Await Break Of 130.000 Support Have a look at the weekly chart for EURJPY. Here we can clearly see that the price is in a bullish flag and pole formation. At the moment a consolidation should be expected as the price lies at the critical sell zone. Now looking at the smaller picture on the main chart, to go short a concrete confirmation is required. The ideal point of breakage should be considered the daily candle breach of 130.000 psychological support. Once the daily candle has closed below 130.000, it is highly probable that the price would start to accelerate downwards. Trade sample (The daily candle must close below 130.000 first) ENTRY POINT: AT AROUND 130.000 STOP LOSS: 131.600 TAKE PROFIT: 127.600 RISK TO REWARD: IDEALLY 1:1 SO ADJUST THE ENTRY ACCORDINGLY Trade safely and with confirmation. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
How High Could USDJPY Go in 2022 ? A LONG QUALITY TRADE !Yes, the LONG move is highly primed in! USDJPY is going LONG in 2022 Q1 and possibly Q2 as well depending on the FED hiking cycle and USD's economic data. Since the long-term weekly resistance was broken last month, USDJPY is highly likely to head higher. But now the big question on the traders mind is: how high can it go ? Most financial banks are betting that it could HIT 120.00 or beyond and some are betting that it could go and run out of steam at 118.000 area. Here looking at the main chart, we could see the next higher high which could be a potential obstacle would be present at 118.000 level. Therefore based on pure price action, a TAKE PROFIT at 118.000 would be ideal. After that if the pair is ready to head higher, it would need to break this level first. TRADE SAMPLE INSTRUCTION: (SEE THE MAIN CHART TOO) ENTRY AT: 115.050 OR BELOW TAKE PROFIT: 118.000 STOP LOSS: 112.200 RISK TO REWARD: 1:1 Trade safely compatriots.
Long
by FX618Analysis
CAD climbs on soft US data, risk-on moodThe Canadian dollar continues to show strong movement early in the New Year. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2674, down 0.56% on the day. The first tier-1 events in 2022 out of the US disappointed, missing their estimates. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December slowed to 58.7, missing the consensus of 60.0 and below the November reading of 61.1 points. The PMI showed a 19th consecutive month of expansion, so there's no arguing that the manufacturing sector is not performing well. Still, the December reading was the lowest since January, which posted an identical figure of 58.7 points. Manufacturing has been expanding, but growth has been hampered by raw material shortages, a lack of workers and supply bottlenecks. ISM Manufacturing Prices slowed to a 12-month low, with a reading of 68.2. This was down sharply from the previous read of 82.4 and shy of the estimate of 79.5 points. On the employment front, JOLTS Jobs Openings for November decreased to 10.4 million, missing the forecast of 11.07 million and below the October reading of 11.09 million. The Canadian dollar has also benefitted from elevated risk sentiment. Treasury yields have been rising this week, as investors continue to sell Treasury bills on improved sentiment that the latest wave of the Omicron variant, although extremely contagious, will be less severe than originally feared. In the US, Omicron cases are exploding, with the average number of new cases breaking above 400 thousand, a 200% increase in the past 14 days. However, hospitalisation rates have not jumped higher and Covid-related deaths have actually declined slightly during this period. With no indications that Omicron will have a devastating effect on the global economy, investors remain in a risk-on mood. USD/CAD has support at 1.2558 and 1.2477 There is resistance at 1.2784. Above, there is resistance at 1.2929
by OANDA
Euro edges lower as German PMI misses markWelcome to the first trading day of 2022! The euro is slightly lower in the European session, trading around 1.1350. Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs for December pointed to growth across the bloc. France and Italy beat the consensus, while Spain and the all-eurozone PMIs were within expectations. The one disappointment was Germany, which came in at 57.4. This missed the forecast of 57.9 and was down from the November reading of 57.9. Supply constraints have hampered Germany's manufacturing sector and the pace of expansion has slowed significantly since the summer of 2021, when we were seeing readings in the mid-60s. Germany will release Retail Sales on Tuesday. This key gauge of consumer spending has struggled, posting back-to-back declines. Another decline in December would raise a red flag and investors could sour on the euro. Omicron cases continue to skyrocket, and although it is considered milder than other Covid variants, the sheer number of infected people is putting a heavy strain on health care systems worldwide. The US, Greece and other countries have shortened their isolation periods for infected people, and this could help cushion the economic blow from Omicron. We are likely to see a surge in Omicron cases in the coming weeks, but the critical question for the markets is how sick are those people who are infected. Market sentiment has been high despite the soaring numbers, on the assumption that Omicron is not as severe as previous variants and will not cause a severe economic downturn. If we don't see a surge in hospitalisation rates and a return to lockdowns, I would expect risk sentiment to remain elevated. EUR/USD has support at 1.1303. Below, there is support at 1.1232 There is resistance at 1.1456 and 1.1415
by OANDA
Pound dips below 1.35, Omicron surgesThe British pound has started the New Year in negative territory. GBP/USD has dipped just below the symbolic 1.35 level. The British pound ended 2021 with a winning week, gaining 1.03%. It was the second week in a row in which GBP/USD gained over 1%, as the risk-sensitive pound continued to make inroads against the safe-haven US dollar. On Thursday, GBP/USD rose to 1.3520, its highest level since November 10th. The catalyst driving the pound's rally has been strong risk appetite, which hasn't waned despite the explosion in the number of Omicron cases. The UK has been setting new records of Covid-19 cases as Omicron rages, and a government study estimates that 1 in 10 people in London is infected with Covid. The markets have remained optimistic, noting that Omicron is less severe than previous variants of Covid, but there are concerns that Omicron could lead to a huge strain on hospitals. Meanwhile, industries and transport networks are reporting staff shortages as sick workers self-isolate, which will weigh on activity in the services sector. The government has not introduced new health restrictions, but that could change if hospitalisation rates move higher. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will deliver an update on restrictions later today, and his comments could move the pound. If the government does announce new restrictions, investors could react negatively and extend the pound's losses. After a light economic calendar during Christmas week, there are key events on both sides of the pond this week. The markets will get a look at PMIs in both the US and the UK, and the US releases nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week. The December NFP is expected to jump to 400 thousand, up from 210 thousand in November. GBP/USD has support at 1.3426 and 1.3329 There is resistance at 1.3585 and 1.3647
by OANDA
Pound drifting at 1.35 levelThe British pound is trading quietly in the European session, at 1.3515. The pound is up 0.90% this week, after a strong gain of 1.18% a week earlier. On Thursday, GBP/USD rose to 1.3520, its highest level since November 10th. Will the pound push above this line on the last day of 2021? The catalyst driving the pound's rally impressive rally over the past two weeks has been elevated risk sentiment, which has resulted in movement away from the safe-haven US dollar. Investor mood has remained positive despite the screaming headlines of the explosion in the number of Omicron cases, including an all-time daily record of cases in the US this week. Not only has the Omicron surge failed to put a dent in investor confidence, but Wall Street recorded some record highs last week. Investors are basing their optimism on medical data which indicates that Omicron is much less severe than previous Covid variants, even though it is much more contagious. On Thursday, US chief medical advisor Anthony Fauci said that we could see a peak in Omicron cases in the US in late January. This means that Omicron isn't going away anytime soon, and there will be a huge number of people infected with Covid in the coming weeks. The critical question for the markets is how sick are those people who are infected with Omicron - if we don't see a huge spike in hospitalisations and new crippling health restrictions, then market sentiment should not be weighed down by Omicron. Over in the US, the Federal Reserve has taken a hawkish pivot in recent weeks after it was forced to abandon its view that inflation was transitory. The Fed recently doubled the taper of its bond purchase programme, which is now scheduled to end in the spring rather than mid-2022. Fed policymakers are expected to raise interest rates shortly after the bond purchases end, with the market pricing in three rate hikes in 2022. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.3502, followed by resistance at 1.3602 There is support at 1.3238 and 1.3074
by OANDA
Euro hovers at 1.13 lineOn the final day of 2021, the major pairs are stuck in tight ranges. The euro is trading quietly at 1.1310 in the European session. This holiday week was characterized by a dearth of economic releases and illiquid markets. That left the markets vulnerable to volatility due to market-movement headlines, but in the end, the currency markets had a generally quiet week. The Omicron wave has caused a massive rise in infections, with the US setting an all-time daily record earlier this week. Still, the markets have been calm and collected about Omicron, relying on reports that show that the newest Covid variant is extremely contagious but causes less severe illness than previous Covid variants which caused tremendous economic damage.  On Thursday, US chief medical advisor said that we could see a peak in the US in late January. This means that Omicron isn't going away anytime soon, and the infection numbers will continue to be sky-high into the new year. The critical question for the markets is how sick are those people who are infected with Omicron - if we don't see a huge spike in hospitalisations, then market sentiment should not be weighed down by Omicron. The markets haven't let Omicron ruin the positive mood, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones posting record highs and a movement in the currency markets away from the safe-haven dollar. This upbeat mood was reinforced this week by a larger than expected decline in US crude oil inventories and an unemployment claims release of 198 thousand, which was better than expected. This suggests that the US economy continues to perform well, even with the explosion in Omicron cases. EUR/USD has support at 1.1255. Below, there is support at 1.1190 There is resistance at 1.1364 and 1.1408
by OANDA
1
Euro slips below 1.13 but recoversThe euro lost ground earlier on Thursday but has recovered most of these losses. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1337, down 0.08% on the day. With a very light economic calendar this week, the markets are being driven by sentiment, which essentially means the latest Omicron headlines. The markets remain fairly upbeat, despite the explosion in Omicron infections. France and the US posted all-time record highs for the number of new cases, but that hasn't made a dint in investor sentiment. The equity markets are humming, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones posting record highs, while the safe-haven dollar is broadly lower as risk tolerance remains elevated. This upbeat mood was reinforced by a larger than expected decline in US crude oil inventories and an unemployment claims release of 198 thousand, which was better than expected. This suggests that the US economy continues to perform well, even with the newest Covid wave. ECB President Christine Lagarde has been rather dismissive of inflationary pressures, even with eurozone inflation hitting a record 4.9% y/y in November. The ECB this month projected that inflation will fall to 1.8% after 2022, but this view is by no means unanimous. In an interview published on Thursday, ECB member Klaas Knot said that eurozone CPI could well remain above the bank's 2% target for years and that the bank's forecast "could prove to be too rosy". The ECB has no plans to change its accommodative policy, and plans to continue QE even while winding up its emergency pandemic programme (PEPP) in March 2022. Spain's Flash CPI for December is estimated at 6.7%, much higher than the 5.5% gain in November. If eurozone CPI releases in early January also show an uptick, we could see additional ECB members echo Knot's view that inflation could stay above the bank's 2% target in the coming years. . EUR/USD has support at 1.1255. Below, there is support at 1.1190 There is resistance at 1.1364 and 1.1408
by OANDA
1
Dollar-yen recaptures 115The US dollar has again pushed the Japanese yen above the 115 line, after breaking through the symbolic level on Wednesday. The US dollar has been showing broad weakness but has managed to push the yen back above the 115 level. Earlier in the day, USD/JPY rose to 115.22, marking a 5-week high. There are two reasons why the yen hasn't been able to take advantage of a weaker dollar. First, the pair is extremely sensitive to the yield differential, and a disappointing seven-year Treasury auction resulted in 10-year yields rising to a 3-week high, boosting USD/JPY. As well, we continue to see elevated risk appetite in the markets despite the explosion in Omicron cases. Governments are scrambling to deal with this newest Covid wave, as hospitals could be overrun by unvaccinated persons becoming infected. The markets, however, continue to rely on reports that Omicron is much less severe than Delta and will not cause the economic damage that we saw with Delta, despite the new all-time highs in cases in the US, France and elsewhere. Inflation is on the rise in Japan. Although the numbers pale in comparison to those in the US or the UK, this is a significant development, considering that Japan has grappled with deflation for years. Earlier in the week, BoJ Core CPI, the bank's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.8% in November, its highest level since February 2018. This beat the consensus of 0.5%. The uptick we are seeing in inflation will be welcome news at the Bank of Japan and should ease policy makers' concerns about deflation. The bank's inflation target of 2% remains a long way off, but inflation could move higher if the Omicron wave does not derail economic activity.
by OANDA
EURUSD: Let Buyers PUMP & Sellers Dump! In this holiday season, the liquidity remains minimal which has caused this pair to range in a very narrow pattern. However it seems that the liquidity would return to market eventually soon which might likely cause this pair to rise with the target being the upper end of the long term daily descending channel. With the fundamentals highly in favor of the USD, we can expect the sellers regaining control at 1.14000 to 1.14400 level which should make the price drive down eventually to the levels of 1.11700. HOW TO TRADE ? Its advisable to place a SELL LIMIT ORDER with the following instructions at hand ENTRY: 1.14000- 1.14400 STOP LOSS: 1.17200 TAKE PROFIT: 1.11700 RISK TO REWARD: 1:1 Kindly please perform your own analysis before entering any trade. I hope you found this insight helpful. If you have further questions you are welcome to P.M directly or comment. Happy holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
1
AUDUSD: Be Cautious Going Short! Multiple Resistance In The WayBearish RSI divergence on 4H charts. Is the price loosing momentum? is there consolidation ahead? Well, we should NOT expect the price to HIT 0.7000 straight away if the ascending 4H trendline breaks! The reason being simple, THERE ARE MULTIPLE RESISTANCE PRESENT IN THE WAY UNTIL WE REACH 0.70000 LEVEL! Just observe the chart and you would notice these obstacles. To trade this opportunity with extreme caution, it is advisable to break and trade. Focus on each individual level breach and trade accordingly. There is a risk that the price might reverse from any of these levels should the trader decide to take profit in one go at 0.7000. So breaking and trading on each individual level breach might be the best action a trader could execute in such conditions. Just observe the chart, no further explanations is needed here for now. Cheer, I hope you found this insight helpful & Happy Holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
US dollar closes in on 115 yen levelThe Japanese yen is unchanged on Tuesday, after starting the week with losses. With USD/JPY currently trading around the 114.80 level, it appears that the 115 line will be breached, perhaps as early as this week. The pair last breached this psychologically-important level a month ago, but was unable to  consolidate above this line. Inflation has been at the top of agenda for months for the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as inflation remains well above the banks' two percent inflation target. The "I" word hasn't caused such alarm in Japan, but it is certainly unusual to be discussing higher inflation levels in Japan, given that the country has had deflation for years. Inflation has been at the top of agenda for months for the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as inflation remains well above the banks' two percent inflation target. The "I" word hasn't caused such alarm in Japan, but it is certainly unusual to be discussing higher inflation levels in Japan, given that the country has suffered with deflation for years. There was further confirmation on Tuesday that inflation is slowly on the rise in the world's second largest economy. BoJ Core CPI, the bank's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.8% in November, its highest level since February 2018. This beat the consensus of 0.5%. The uptick we are seeing in inflation will be welcome news at the Bank of Japan, and should ease policymakers concerns about deflation. The bank's inflation target of 2% remains a long way off, but inflation could move higher if the Omicron does not derail economic activity. Japan's economy is expected to expand 6.4% in Q4, after a contraction of -3.6% in the third quarter. However, such robust growth will be highly dependent on the Omicron variant not causing a sharp downturn, which remains a nagging uncertainty. Although Omicron appears to be less severe than Delta, it is much more contagious, and there are fears that hospitals could find themselves overstretched due to a huge influx of unvaccinated persons. USD/JPY continues to put pressure on resistance at 114.83. Above, there is resistance at 115.26 There is support at 112.90 and 112.47
by yesfish
Omicron Could Drive EURJPY To 125.000!Ascending channel on weekly TF broke, bullish flag and pole formation is currently developing at the moment. In a long run, this pair has been in an uptrend, however since the channel and psychological barrier of 130.000 broke, the price is likely to aim the next support that lies at 125.400! TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bullish pole and flag formation currently in play on W charts. The 130.000 psychological barrier broke with M candle closing below it. This signals the price is ready to head lower towards 125.000 support area. This SHORT move signals further consolidation in EURJPY (FLAG CONTINUATION) FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS *Omicron the main driver for this pair at the moment *Anticipated rise in the cases globally after the festive season would make JPY safehaven demand rebound, thus sending EURJPY lower HOW TO TRADE? Trade could be executed at this moment with the following suggested details as the risk to reward ratio is favorable at the current price ENTRY: 130.000 & ABOVE STOP LOSS: AT SWING HIGH 133.750 TAKE PROFIT: NEAR SUPPORT 125.4000 RR: > 1:1 Cheers & Happy holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
2
Swiss franc snoozingThe Swiss franc flexed some muscle in the days leading into Christmas, but the currency is almost unchanged this week, trading around 0.9170. The Omicron variant continues to spread as countries scramble to deal with the newest wave of Covid. The good news is that most reports have shown that Omicron is believed to be far milder than Delta, which hopefully means that this latest Covid wave will not cause as much devastation as Delta. However, there is no question that Omicron is far more contagious than Delta and poses a serious health hazard to unvaccinated people, which could potentially overload hospitals. The markets are extremely reactionary now, especially this week with many market participants on holiday and the markets marked by illiquidity. We are seeing sharp moves from risk currencies such as the Australian dollar, while the US dollar and Swiss franc, both of which are safe-haven assets, have showed limited movement. It's a light economic calendar this week, but there are two Swiss events that could have an impact on the movement of the Swiss franc - Credit Suisse Economic Expectations on Wednesday and the KOF Economic Barometer on Thursday. The uncertainty surrounding Omicron has captivated the market's attention, overshadowing other issues such as a Federal Reserve rate hike. The equity markets have been on the rise, buoyed by reports that Omicron is less severe than Delta and may not impact the US economy as much as feared. The US consumer is spending and unemployment is at low levels, which has kept the recovery going strong. Fed Watch has priced in a 53% chance of a 25-bps hike in March, and the odds of a rate hike will surely change based on the impact of Omicron on the US economy. There is weak support at 0.9161, followed by support at 0.9247 USD/CHF faces resistance at 0.9247 and 0.9294
by OANDA